patrick.net

Just to clarify. I wouldn't say east coast is better than west coast, just more center-of-the-worldy. Importance certainly does not uniformly equate to quality, hence Washington DC (built on swampland and swarming with lobbyists and other evolution deadenders) is important as the nation's capital, but everything else about it sucks.

BTW, I was really really out of the loop to "Robbie Stevens" and actually thought that was the company name (wouldn't that be cute). So it's actually Robertson Stevens. (So instead of having never heard the name, I have heard of it once or twice in having).

lot blood spilled…….
lot (s of) blood spilled…

hella blood spilled... see, no need for plurals or prepositions...

alien,

First off, the guys over at http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/ have more credibility and detail on the issue than I. Lots of people there have lived in Marin a long time and would know more than I can offer.

Since SFD is the only way in-and-out of those neighborhoods, there's a traffic penalty to the home prices there. It gets hit by the 580/Bridge traffic and that Larkspur on/off ramp mess at SFD, which is no picnic itself.

My rough estimate is that much of South Marin is about 17% overvalued to the relative prices of the rest of the BA (that assumes an 8% historical premium and that today's premium is about 25%).

So take what you think the general BA is overvalued for the type of neighborhood & home, and add another ~17%. My own personal guesstimate for the total overvaluation of homes in my target set is 30%-40%. I'm hoping to see this area drop ~55%, accordingly.

The margin of error here is huge, of course. I'd give myself an alpha of about .25, lol.

alien

I also hope you saw my apology at the end of the last thread.

I am finally in Santa Barbara. Looks like I missed some troll actions, never mind.

This report from Saturday's WSJ might entertain Fake P and others for the holiday weekend: David Lereah is now predicting a national YoY decline in home prices! My, how his tune has changed!

Realtors Official Forecasts Decline In Home Prices

By JAMES R. HAGERTY
September 2, 2006; Page A2

The chief economist of the National Association of Realtors predicts that U.S. home prices will generally decline during the next few months.

The unusually bleak assessment from David Lereah, the trade group's top economist, came as the Realtors reported that their index of pending home sales dropped 7% in July. The decline shows that home shoppers continue to take their time, hoping prices will fall amid a glut of houses on the market in many parts of the country.

"I'm hoping for prices to drop," Mr. Lereah said in an interview. The Realtors normally stress the tendency of home prices to rise over the long term. But Mr. Lereah said lower prices are needed in some parts of the U.S. to lure buyers back into the market. During the past year, sales have plunged in California, southern Florida and the Washington, D.C., area, all places where prices more than doubled in the first half of this decade.

Sales have stalled partly because "the sellers are not bringing prices down fast enough," Mr. Lereah said. "They've been very stubborn." A drop of 5% to 10% in California and southern Florida "probably would be enough to bring sales back," he said.

For July, the Realtors reported that the national median home price was up 0.9% from a year earlier. But Mr. Lereah said he expects the national median to decline modestly in the next few months. That would mark the first decline since 1993. "The quicker we can get negative prices, the quicker we can get sales coming back," Mr. Lereah said.

Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Vienna, Va., said the national median home price in this year's fourth quarter is likely to be down 3% to 4% from a year earlier.

In recent months, median prices in some areas -- including San Diego, Boston, the Virginia suburbs of Washington and parts of Florida -- already have fallen from year-earlier levels.

The pending-sales index, which equates the average pending-sales rate of 2001 to 100, registered 105.6 in July. The latest reading was down 7% from June and 16% from July 2005. The index, based on signed contracts for home sales that haven't yet been completed, has fallen nearly 18% since hitting a peak of 128.2 in August 2005.

By region, the July index was down 20% from a year earlier in the West and Midwest, 16% in the Northeast and 11% in the South.

On Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its seasonally adjusted index of applications for home-purchase mortgages declined 1.6% in the week ended Aug. 25. That index -- a measure of demand for homes -- is down about 20% from a year ago.

Can someone please find the link to the article about the gal that went "undercover" to get the dirt on RE bubble UK style? She basically was glad to get out with her life!

High pressure sales tactics, bidding against non-existent co-bidders, cooked appraisals and funky lending are part and parcel with RE in bonnie ole' England! Perhaps it was SFWoman that revealed just how prices continue to escalate there?

If these are the caliber of straws perma bulls are clutching for, good luck.

Other than a handful of global observations we here at patrick.net stick to our knitting. But if it helps trolls/RE perma bulls feel better to parade these far flung and frankly meaningless articles more power to ya. If you're feeling that bullish pull even more equity out of your overpriced sh@tbox and speculate on a global basis.

MarinaPrime, is that you. Long time no see! :)

The Oregonian: Wednesday, August 16, 2006

Housing Market Loses its Boom:

Lower sales prices and higher inventory signal cooler times for Portland listings.

The Portland-area housing market has decisively cooled, resulting in a July median home price decline that bucks the-year trend of relentlessly rising values.

"The new market realities have frustrated sellers, such as Reid Biggs and his wife, Linda, who are hoping to sell their Hawthorne area bungalow and downsize to a floating home. Biggs said he spent $150,000 on second-floor rennovations six years ago and is annoyed with cosmetic fixes sold for more than $500,000 in last years overheated housing market".

Can you say; missed the f@cking boat pal?

Got it broke off right in the guh-zingus. (Sideways).

Best of luck getting over to that fully paid for floating home (which btw pay no taxes in OR) pal. I may have walked away from some upside selling on the last day of 2003 but this guys is now b@lls deep and NOW he's thinking about "using some protection"? Good luck with that Mr. Biggs as we now head into the doldrums for the Oregon market. They usually don't pick up again until at least March at which point Reid and Linda can look forward to Robert Cote's "Silent Spring" (the sequel).

People like this are helping us to re-define the term flipper.

Got equity?

Flip or re-fi!

SP,

If I was at the party I'd pretend to be sorry for her and ask her about her job search plans. Then she would give a blank stare and I'd explain that less supply (or less demand) means fewer listings for her to pocket.

New thread: How to survive boredom?