patrick.net

SQT,

A very rewarding experience FINALLY (in a very un-rewarding week)!

I've just up'd my batting avg. to .00089! Long time friend and perma bull just turned! I couldn't believe what I was hearing. After years of multiple bids on units in his bldg. (lofts if Portland) there are now over 15 units for sale and no buyers in sight! His girlfirends bldg. is worse, over 10% of the units are on the block. Well jeebus, they just finished the damn bldg. 6 months ago! How could it be that so many are selling so soon?

So he finally gets it and after years of frustrating and unproductive conversations he is catching up fast. Now he can't wait for things to crash so he can do some bottom fishing. All of this in just the last two months since we spoke. Incredible.

When these people declare bankruptsy and basically become burdens on society, the cost is absorbed by everyone else in one way or another.

That can be fixed pretty easily. I believe the hard core conservative libertarians are always arguing against that societal cost.

Jon, eburbed,

The consequences Jon reveals above are a direct result of "inviting venture capital standards" into our living rooms. Buying a house used to be about as "high risk" as getting a library card. Now, the wrong entry point can spell disaster! As with all venture capital propositions the rewards can be great (but so can the risks).

The difference is VC guys have already worked their way through the "cheap seats" and elbowed their way courtside. They've been through mutual funds, bonds, individual stocks and even IPO's. They trade options and even own options on RE. Before they got involved providing funding for start ups they took their lumps on the way up. They've earned the right to have a shot at the big time.

Joe Schmuckateli on the other hand has never heard of an affordability index, inverted yield curve nor can he define the terms of a neg. am. loan. BUT he's got one! This really boils down to a suitability issue. Taking a client that's still getting used to the idea of mutual funds directly in harms way through options without having a firm grasp of bonds and equities is just plain wrong. I mean c'mon, the guy doesn't quite get stocks but you're going to buy him an "option" on one? I realize most folks here have well graduated beyond this but let's allow for the other 99% that haven't.

Now he/she is in over their head on their loan/loans. The way that realtors distanced themselves from this part of the process is by showing the client even more "investment" homes and b/c the client had NO IDEA where he was going to get the money the realtor said I know this guy........ and he deals with these types of situations. Next thing you know they've taken a person with very good credit and MAXED OUT his DTI AND loaded hime up with about 50K in RE commissions and points.

"Players are Made, not Born" and so they go about "making players" out of everyone they can get their hands on! I actually tend to think these people have a pretty good case (however it will be made against the lenders and RE firms not indivuals) as they will be back working at Starbucks.

Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, San Jose was pegged as the most expensive area in the U.S. The house shown in the URL below I guess, was the at the median around $744K.

It is full of delusional people who think that there are no jobs outside the area and that the rest of the country is uncivilized.

It has a name: Silly Valley

@DinOR,

Congratulations on your (first?) perma-bull "conversion"! Please feel free to post the details on our Conversion thread.

I wonder if one of us can bring fraud charges against David Lereah for all his statements?

No.

People are free to interpret data any way they see fit. CNBC today had people honestly (in some cases) reading today's data as everything from "the biggest Boom in US history" to "recessions that will make the 70s look like the 90s". Even if people are paid to "think a certain way" and echo that in the media over and over, that cannot ever be made illegal unless we've really gone off the rails in this country.

Wasn't SQT saying something about Journalism being the 4th branch of the government. Since megacorps own all the media, I guess they're the new 4th branch.

Oh, btw: this gem from Newsweek's newest cover story:

Nightmare Mortgages
They promise the American Dream: A home of your own -- with ultra-low rates and payments anyone can afford. Now, the trap has sprung

Not that all option ARM holders go in blindly. While the loans are marketed aggressively, plenty of holders know exactly what they're getting into. Jon and Meghan Bachman of Portland, Ore., consider them wealth-building tools. "We want to own a bunch of houses," says Meghan. "We're hoping for early retirement."

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_37/b4000001.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story

the libertarian view often strikes me as an elaborate front for “not in my backyard”.

Many are not objecting to the notion of paying for a basic minimum societal safety net. They just want it to be a basic minimum, and not one iota more. Minimize moral hazard. People should be free to make bad decisions. And we don't want them to starve on the streets, even if they're there by their own hand. (I used all three thair's in one sentence!). We just don't want to make their lives comfortable or fulfilling.

Here's an actual crime that's come to light as a result of the current RE bubble being currently investigated: the collusion and racketeering practices of the RE industry.

Robert Coté Says:

There’s beeen a million take-offs of the original I think I had the Boston variety in my dorm room there until I “ran/was run out” of universities.

I've always found the geo-centricity you guys allude to funny. In a similar vein, it's funny how the BA has a general attitude of disdain and almost hatred towards SoCal, while most people I know in SoCal don't give a rat's ass about the BA. There's a parallel sentiment between Boston and NYC. Many Bostonians despice NYC and New Yorkers, while most New Yorkers barely know Boston exists. Maybe the Red Sox are an exception.

Liar loans from applicant to secondary market should be prosecuted under Patriot Act terrorism laws. Indeed some people will find themselves sentenced to 30-life of home detention with no trial or appeal.

:lol: FBuyerdom: The self-incarcerating crime.

Even home buying can get kind of risky if you're paying 50% of your take home income in mortgage, if your marriage is on the rocks, or if your job is not rock solid.

Before the home prices got so high, people in those situations (excluding the 50% of take home income in mortgage) are likely to get out with some losses, but have those losses cushioned by the 20% downpayment. But with current prices and bad practices, even buying a home with the intention of staying is a scary prospect.

And this doesn't even get into the question of how much better your home could be or how much better your household finances can be, if you waited and bought the house at 20-50% off.

jail time. capital punishment. public floggings. except they'd only enjoy it...

I’ve always found the geo-centricity you guys allude to funny. In a similar vein, it’s funny how the BA has a general attitude of disdain and almost hatred towards SoCal, while most people I know in SoCal don’t give a rat’s ass about the BA. There’s a parallel sentiment between Boston and NYC. Many Bostonians despice NYC and New Yorkers, while most New Yorkers barely know Boston exists.

The biggest problem that I see in California is that Californians tend to think that California is the center of the world - due to the fact that no matter how many hours of driving you do, you're still in California (or Las Vegas, a suburb of California).

As a result, Californians are unable to realize or even imagine that in reality, New York City is the center of the world.

But if you use a manipulated currency and an international plan of loose credit following the marxist dictat of “sell you the rope” then you are… um… China, our friend.

I believe the expression is that China is our frenemy.

How can Californians possibly think they're the center of the world? You guys watch TV shows 3 hours after everybody else in the country. Your stockbrokers work a 5AM-2PM shift.

I hope that this article will serve as an encouragement:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14604126

No, it may be an encouragement for you. We do not need any more confirmation. We do welcome dissident opinion nowadays because we are getting really bored.

BTW, near the white hot job center, there are a few new communities in Sunnyvale that are now offering incentives and/or price retrogradation. I am sure prices are still "on the rise". Perhaps builders are just being nice.

Fake P Says:

Have any noticed that the job market in the bay area is sooooo hot for tech guys? The traffic jam in San Jose is getting from bad to unbearably bad.

At least try to use proper grammar. You read like a FOB.

Fake P is not too bad, at least he never uses all block capital letters.

Fake P is our friend. We miss him!

Now where is Jack?

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney08302006.html

The Great Housing Crash of '07
By MIKE WHITNEY

This month's figures prove that the so-called "housing bubble" is not only real, but that its cratering faster than anyone had realized. As the UK Guardian reported just yesterday, "the orderly housing slowdown predicted by the Federal Reserve will (soon) become a full-blown crash".

All the indicators are now pointing in the wrong direction. Consumer confidence is down, inventory is at a 10 year high, and the number of homes sold in July was 22% lower than last year. As Paul Ashworth, chief economist at Capital Economics said, "Things seem to be getting worse very quickly. Freefall is a strong word, but I think it's the right one to use here." (UK Guardian)

The housing bubble is a $10 trillion equity balloon that will explode sometime in 2007 when more than $1 trillion in no-interest, no down payment, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) reset; setting the stage for massive home devaluation, foreclosures and unemployment. ("By some estimates housing activity has accounted for 40% of all the jobs created since 2001". Times Online) July's plunging sales are just the first sign of a major slowdown. The worst is yet to come.

Robert Cote,

Huh? Congrats and everything to you for having a great life, but what does that have to do with west coast stockbroker hours? I was just trying to illustrate that the Left Coast does not have major stock or commodities exchanges.

I miss Jack too. Then we can restart the discussion on Marin intangibles and how high they can go. Then we can go through MarinPOS's selection of high priced shacks and go find intangibles...it'd be so much fun!

And then I'll go OT and start bashing marble kitchen counters, Jack will come in and defend marble countertops and then I'd be forced to apologize and say that some marble kitchen counters are actually quite cool, especially if they're black and overlook the Bay.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/duffy8.html

Gary Shilling and Brian Wesbury squared off on CNBC to discuss the current state of the housing market. Wesbury, the younger and far more frequent guest over the past eight years, was bullish: the market is simply "correcting back to normal." Shilling, the bear, subscribes to the housing bubble theory. As evidence, last year 40% of home sales were speculative in nature – that is, to second home buyers and investors. According to Shilling, it would take a 35% drop in housing prices to restore the long-term balance between median home prices and the Consumer Price Index. What caught our attention was the essence of Wesbury’s assuredness: there never was a bubble because most people are rational.

I know of a co-worker who is a mediocre performer and has an unimpressive resume, went to 5 interviews and got 4 offers. What is the world coming to?

So what? I have recruiters calling me at work. I just have to turn them away.

Have you realized that performance gets you nowhere? It is all about chemistry and astrology.

Fake P,

You'll enjoy Ha Ha's presence here (I don't know if he was here when you were). He keeps saying $160K is lower middle class or something and that he can't buy anything on that income.

This late coming job bubble is isolated to the BA. In DC/NoVA, the job market is already cooling down a bit and quite a few projected expansions are getting cut or scaled down, esp. in anything related to RE or the defense department. Still some overhanging demand, but it's going fast.

Last time someone told me the job market was hot we had a recession within a year. Silly Valley is not smarter than everyone. It is just too optimistic to see mines on the ground.

Though on the other hand, it was nice while the job market was decent for a change. It's about time that workers started getting some benefits from higher productivity and after years of stagnant wages (supported by RE asset inflation). The hangover of the RE asset inflation will not be pretty.

Fake P. enjoy your dope.

Boy those Raiders sure looked good last night…for the first two minutes.

Yep, it didn't take long to make the Seahawks look like crap. Reminds me of the good ol' days. As for the rest of game, it's preseason so I didn't really pay too much attention to the game after the first few series of play. But congrats on the win...I guess.

Go Raiders.

Though on the other hand, it was nice while the job market was decent for a change.

Not exactly nice. Think traffic. And worse of all, restaurant wait-time!

Meritage Homes, hee hee. Meritage...

I’m sorry, my properties (Pac Heights and Sonoma) have increased 4x in price since I bought them in ‘94.

why haven't you sold those suckers at the top of the market? 8O

why haven’t you sold those suckers at the top of the market?

Houses are not necessarily investments. Quality of life is more important.

I try to plan my day with commute time in mind and I'm not really rich enough to eat out that often, so I'll take a good job market please!

Plus, higher wages would just be taking over from people HELOCing or flipping their RE holdings, without rising wages, the restaurants would now be empty because people can no longer liberate home equity for $9/piece sushi.

"...jack hammer the foundation, break structural items, plumbing"

You would only be hurting yourself, wouldn't you? My understanding is that your outstanding debt is reduced by the value of the house when the bank takes possession.

"I think credit is all better after 5 or 7 years."

In most cases you would still owe the money.

Should we set up a support group for the prodigal homeowners? I think we should probably accept everyone.