patrick.net

Don't worry, the fear will set in soon and replace the boredom. This period will be critical for Fed and market watching. Right now, a big cash position is probably a good idea, until we get an idea of how Fed is gonna deal with the situation. It's also important to resist the temptation of buying stuff at 15 or 25% off, since we really don't know how low the market can go.

But if we really do get bored, can we go back to talking about haystack houses and Japanese kitchen knives?

I went to sushi last night, and the topic went round to the housing bubble.

While trying to be diplomatic (these are my friends after all), i'm still hearing 'oh, prices will remain flat, and maybe go up a bit in line with inflation..' Most of them still cite the case that 'prices are up' and go on about the median, and didn't want to listen to how the median is a lagging indicator.

They berated me for listening to the MSM and when I said I've been on the blogs a while, I got a snort of derision from one person! "Blogs...." he said. This, from a man who works in the computer games industry - very 'blog-driven'. Guess its the wrong kind of blogs.

Anyway, with the wealth of conflicting opinions around at the moment, I didn't really have the heart - or the hard data - to argue the case.

I'm not the most patient of people, so this winter will be...boring...as sellers realise that not all is well in the Land of Homebuyers. Still, it seems that it will take the immanent arrival of the Foreclosure guys to shake them from the belief that thire houses will always increase in value.

Ho hum.

Getting out the knitting as we speak

Robert Cote'

Of course you meant: Randolph I, der große

If you're nice I'll let you run a client state somewhere in Europe.

When I really sense that people around here are genuinely getting bored, I intend to start a series-- Lowballing: Strategies, Techniques, and Mechanics. We can talk about negotiating tactics, offer writing details, how to find the proper forms, retaining a good attorney. We can describe the process for getting restraining orders against belligerent sellers and sellers' agents after they threaten us with physical harm. We can relay stores from the front. We can get George to diary his bottom fishing coup in South FL.

It should be quite a bit of fun.

For my money, it's been boring UP UNTIL NOW!

The pontificating, the debate, charts, graphs and the "SWAG" (scientific wild @ss guessing). We've sat through 3 "warm up" bands and now the act we've paid to actually see is about to take the stage. Only question is will this be the night that reputations are made from?

I think it's going to be a BARN BURNER!

"after they threaten us with physical HARM"

(Also from the Oregonian's August 16th article)

"Available listings as of Aug. 1 totaled 9,555- up 68.9 percent from a year ago".

"They feel that because the market is soft, it gives them (buyers) carte blanche to do whatever they want"*

*Brian Bellairs a top agent of Meadows Group, Inc. Realtors

Earth to Brian:

Start liking it!

Let's hope Oxley takes lessons learnt from that disaster known as SOX to heart when formulating this new regulatory regime.

SFWoman,

That sounds like an open and shut case of monopolistic behavior and breach of fiduciary duties to their buyers.

I would love to hear Joe Schmoe's opinion on this little realtor hissy fit.

Randolph the Great (or merely very large. Google translation wasn't very clear),

I do foresee a gap between the start of the bubble burst and a proper entry point for sensible buyers. So I think there will be a period of bored (ours) and fear (FB and the real estate flipping industrial complex). I would like to have a series of discussions on renter survival and profiting from this period of uncertainty.

SFWoman,

Great link. The beginning of the end of the Mafia run RE Cartel (TM). It's about time. The sheer scale of the RE commission structure is staggering!

One of the things I HAVE learned over the years is that the house (brokerage house that is) ALWAYS wins! Let's say I had a product that I want to sell for $2,000. It's a VERY tough sell. It will take a ton of prospecting and cold calling for reps to make this happen. If they're lucky they might sell TWO a month! So, out of the 2K "commission" I take 50% or 1K, right? So the rep tries to live off of his 2K per month (minus expenses, taxes etc.) but I've got 50 guys I suckered in from Craigslist doing this, right? So each guy makes 2K a month and I make a 100K a month! Not bad, right?

This is how the RE Cartel (TM) works. In spite of the 60 BILLION paid out in commissions in 2005 the avg. realt-whore made less. Go figure.

Realtors (TM) come and go (as do drug dealers) but the Cartel lives on!

Here's the only way to get through these times.....enjoy!

Housing Anonymous

1. We admitted we were powerless over our housing addiction - that our lives had become unmanageable
2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity – the Power of a bursting housing bubble
3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood God – somebody has to help us through this!
4. Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves – and our budgets
5. Admitted to God, to ourselves and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs – we wanted a house more than we wanted a life and happiness
6. Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of character
7. Humbly asked God to remove our shortcomings – and our short sightedness
8. Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to make amends to them all – except greedy sellers, mortgage brokers, and real estate agents
9. Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others – meaning our family and friends who have listened to us complain about the market and our obsession with it
10. Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it – and sat smugly when we were right
11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God as we understood God, praying only for knowledge of God's will for us and the power to carry that out – and to know what role we will play in the upcoming market crash
12. Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to other housing addicts, and to practice these principles in all our affairs – business and sexual

We could each get a sponsor who we call when we get the urge to place a premature buying offer on an overpriced house. Remember, one day at a time is the only way to housing sanity, long term financial success, personal happiness, and, most of all, payback!

With sincere apologies to AA and other 12 step programs

CB,

Whom I'll refer to as "Charlie Bravo" describes my worst nightmare. My waking nightmare.

Every DIME we OVERPAY in asking price equates to 30 cents that WON'T be available in our retirement years! Minimum.

Wether it be in HK, or SF or wherever overpaying has SERIOUS consequences! HARM is fond to remind us that "affordability" in CA typically means buying with a neg. am. and commiting serial refinance!

If you don't believe me take the "Surfer X Challenge" and find a RE perma bull willing to do the Upside/Downside Capture Gauntlet!

I "front" the borrowed money, you keep the upside BUT if there's downside........ you fill the hole!

This is what I am so desperately trying to establish, a working relationship with these "dime-a-dozen" Lease2Own dirtbags. (To be distinguished from "jitbags and/or "scumbags").

I'll (or not) "pony up" for your obvious and blatant arrears. You obtain the 11th hour salvation you (or your client) so desperately seek. (So far so good). Then upon conclusion of "the period" you get your "appraiser" (not not some dirtbag RE shill) a bona fide RE appraiser, and I'll get mine. Then we do a "blind draw" for the third and at the end of 12/24/36 months I PROMISE (and I do mean till death do us part) I'll pay the average of the three!

Thus far virtually no takers. I spoke w/one gal in Portland but I strongly suspect that she was so desperate for an "appointment" that she was willing to say anything.

Stan,

Me? Clean and sober. Why I haven't so much as set foot in a Lowe's or Home Depot in TWO YEARS! No more "Plantation Blinds Quotes" in my life! Polo Ralph Lauren custom paint? Doesn't even phase me anymore.

(There are times where I must admit I miss the "Bataan Death March" from the furthest reaches of the parking lot to buy a roll of masking tape to save 21 cents though). Especially being startled near to death by some dope addict's pit bull in the back of his pick-up truck's camper top for invading the owner's "private space"! How inconsiderate of me!

Note to Cops: Yeah, uh huh. Why does a law abiding citizen need a freaking pit bull to "guard" their vehicle, or bicycle or whatever? HELLO!

What possible freaking right do you have to make my heart jump into my throat b/c I made the egregious transgression of stepping past your "ride"? What exactly is inside your vehicle that is more precious than my right to conduct my daily affairs? You have a brand new vehicle but you can't "afford" insurance?

Oh, I get it. "The Man" doesn't insure that kind of "commodity". It's cool.

Ennui sets in.

Yawn...

:o~~ The Mouse

"Parker said he was "shocked" to learn of the raids".

Kevin Parker probably had decent parents. School, church, Little League. Yet somehow 16 out of his "rookie of the year" sales were to "entrepreneurs"?

The angle?

Oh, do I really need to go into this? Obviously his "commissions" and transactions were used to "front" equity extraction that funded MAJOR TAX FREE MONEY.

A lot of us tend to gloss over this this but the "criminal class" doesn't pay taxes. "Everybody" smokes dope so this is the gub'ments hang up right?

Earth to Kevin:

REAL CRIMINALS do not give a FFF about your "up-scale" scam. As witnessed in SFWoman's link, this is Realtors (TM) regulating Realtors (TM)! His broker, office manger, sales manager, regional manager quite obviously were more than "cool" with this. Pffft. Why not? They pocketed more than their fair share!

Yo! Kev? Heard of "soap on a rope"?

CB (Charlie Bravo)

Other than a few select places in the "I" (Philippine Islands) and possibly Hilo, HI, Hong Kong is the place of preference for most Chicagoans! (Especially, "soud-siders"). It seems to embrace a brand of corruption that we seem to know well. Like Vegas, it's a "back scratch" town.

Friends are friends. (And "friends" is for life). There's only ONE HK baby!

Yes, I'm fully aware that "is" should read "are" but if you're truly from the "Southside" (or certain portions of Ohio as in Randy H's case) "is" is actually more linguistically correct.

The improper application of "are" where an "is" should reside could well fit one for a pair of "cement boots". Not a threat by any means, just sound advice.

Robert Coté Says:

Boring? No, boring was holding my breath for 6 months waiting for my life decisions and very public comments to prove correct. I feel like Peter Ustinov at the end of “Logan’s Run” ready to impart stories of the before time.

Logan's Run reference? A man after my own heart. Excellent.

Back to the topic, though. Boredom? Au contraire! The fun's just getting started! Time to pull up a chair, pop a beer, open a bag of chips and watch the fireworks (of the FB's flaming out). The next year should be very interesting.

www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf?/base/business/11556969052/4750.xml&.cell=7

Kaput?

"Dues"s you's peoples haves any ideas bout how many's deese Oregonian's financial futures lean precariously on RE?

Din't tink so.

That actually should read "zuh-bout". Go figure.

$4 million homes in Alabama! What has this world come to?

I'm really surprised by this scheme though. Surely there were cheaper non-gated community homes in this school district!

Ironic, since this seems to be one of his safer activity. Stingray impalement - the freakishly hilarious but deadly killer.

My friend told me her mom and another woman asked the Realtor who sold two of the houses why she sold the houses to the guy who was doing this, since the Realtor lived in the same gated community. Apparently the man purchasing the houses, and the renters, are all African-Americans, and the Realtor is afraid that she would be sued under fair housing rules if she didn’t sell the houses to him.

This only means that the market is screwed up. The development should have been subdivided into smaller lots or condo units.

I am also against the idea of tying schools to addresses. Schools should be privatized or they should be assigned according to academic merits.

It is going to be boring. What can we do?

I was going to get a pet monkey... but I understand they have opposable thumbs... is it a good idea?

yes, the untimely demise of Steve Irwin... he used to poke animals a lot to make them jump...

here is another use for the expression: www.crikey.com.au

It won't be boring. We need to be deligent keep up with the research, media, and markets. Save, Save, Save is he buzzword now folks. Live lean and mean so when it comes(bottom) we can all get our pick of the litter.

In November vote for our economical futures. I think sacrafice in the short term will net tangible gains in a few years. My solution though extreme for most was to leave So Cal for a few years and live cheaply so I can add more to my MM account. By doing that I freed up 35 percent more income to save a year. My rent on a 3yr old 2/2 is only $695 total living exspences about $1400-1500 mo. Yeah salary is less but only slightly leaving more for your savings.

Not eating out as much an not driving alot saves too. All these small things add up. Not that i have alot of debt but I plan on paying it all off by the time the bargains appear. I own my 98 SUV out right it obly has 84 K on it. The difference between us and thems we think long term permanent not short term frivilous.....

Good Luck Ya'll from SC

ROFL ! DO YOU MEAN THAT BEN FRANKIN AND FDR ARE NOT THE SAME HISTORICAL FIGURES ????

Project population growth here by 2012 will out strip the available housing.

The demand for 8/1/16 (8 bed, 1 bath, 16 parking) houses will be strong.

Here's a chart produced by Detroit Free Press on median income. It's compiled with census data.

After all the complaints about CA wages and so forth, I'm surprised to see that its median income held up well relative to much of the country. NE has also done comparatively well. This could be a chicken or egg problem - did the relatively strong incomes push up the RE market or did booming RE support median income?

Also, note that most of the second tier bubble markets like AZ, NC, UT and OR did quite poorly.

Here's a chart produced by Detroit Free Press on median income. It's compiled with census data.

After all the complaints about CA wages and so forth, I'm surprised to see that its median income held up well relative to much of the country. NE has also done comparatively well. This could be a chicken or egg problem - did the relatively strong incomes push up the RE market or did booming RE support median income?

Also, note that most of the second tier bubble markets like AZ, NC, UT and OR did quite poorly.

the link

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_09/009444.php

I do wonder how sustainable these Hispanic-centric rentals would be. These families moved to the suburbs/traditionally middle class areas because of the low paying retail, landscaping, construction, and entry level service jobs. They're likely to be pushed out either by the next anti-immigration push (quite likely, a bad economy and an already anti-immigrant sentiment amongst the locals) and loss of those types jobs (construction is already being squeezed, landscaping and house cleaner jobs can't be far behind).

SP,

Maybe the Humboldt County pot growers wanted to move closer to their customers.

I dont know if renting is the right thing to do, although iam renting myself in losbanos, california. thereason i say that is when everyone in town is gambling on the house and specuvesting in housing it may be wise for you to get into teh action.

21,000$ for signing on the dotted line, mercedes benz car and the like. When SHTF just walk away from the house, its somebodyelses problem. At least u made 21,000 $ and now can start over a taxi service with the mercedes benz.

I dont know about saving the money, The purchasing power is diminished. By this I mean if the majority in the society with the blessings of the bank and the gubermint are specuvesting and winning. The only losser it seems is the clever, intelligent,well informed fool who doesnt gamble.

In the end analysis, although I have not bought into the housing mania, i am not sure if the renters who can easily afford mortgage payments are doing themselves any favor

SQT,

You're too kind hearted. In any case, you must be quite happy not "owning" next to such a house. I feel no sympathy for such slumlords. Their actions degrade the life and security of neighbors. My parents had an old neighbor who moved out and got into the rent by room business and it mad their other neighbors so pissed off. They were afraid to let their kids play outside and worried that criminal activities were occurring in the house (since the police came by a couple times after midnight). Eventually, the blatant HOA violations and renting out to more than 4 unrelated adults caught up with the landlord and the renters were all driven out.

I do feel sorry for the families who are forced by financial reality to share McMansions. McMansions are barely acceptable for one family (due to bad sound insulation, open kitchen/living room/dining room plans, and small bedrooms. They offer very little privacy for families.

"But he died doing what he loved."

By all accounts, it was an almost instanteous and relatively painless death. Most of us would be lucky to have such a mercifully quick and sudden ending. It's very sad for his family and his fans though.

Personally, I'm not sad. The man was a stupid adrenaline junky who finally took one chance too many. Now he's dead and his two children no longer have a father.

The Crocodile Hunter was not a committed naturalist, zoologist, or educator. He was a thrill seeker who enjoyed risking his own life in pursuit of the "rush" that comes from dancing with death.

Also, I was never fooled by his "enthusiasm". He would mercilessly tease the animals until they attacked him, and then act all surprised and utter some corn-pone Austrailian expression.

Soldiers, firemen, police officers -- these people risk their lives in support of something noble and decent. This guy risked his life for the fun of it. The worst thing is that he did it in front of millions of children. That's a pretty poor example to set for impressionable young children.

Soldiers, firemen, police officers — these people risk their lives in support of something noble and decent.

I agree.

I'll miss The Crocodile Hunter.

I do have to admit, dude did some wacky/kooky things with wild beasts.

Saw him get bit in the face by a poisonous snake, antagonize an aligator until the lizard became angry and snapped at him with its huge fangs:
kinda stupid, dumb a-- sh-t for the thrill of it!

Schmoe has a point about his reckless thrill seeking.

Then again, he did cry like a baby when that aligator died & had some true love of the sundry critters he pursued.

Too many people are kicking the bucket. Makes me sad in a way.
Life is so short...just ask the mouse.

:o~~

SP,

The fact that long rates are going down is no mystery when you take a look at the yield curve. Bond traders seem to be "pricing in" future anticipated short rate cuts by the Fed, which would eventually work their way into lower rates for long bonds as well, or so the theory goes.

Of course, once the equally anticipated (by people like us anyway) mass waves of ARM resets & foreclosures start happening, resulting in subprime MBS buy-backs, lawsuits and other fun, there is no guarantee that long rates will STAY low indefinitely. In fact, we may very well see the return of those "quaint" underwriting standards and realistic risk premiums in the mortgage markets.

So you think 15 and 30 year fixed rates might be going down in the short term? Might be a last reprieve for the FB to refinance out of a suicide loan?

I think so...

BTW, if they can afford 15 or 30 YR fixed loans they are not really FBs.