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There is no real estate bubble !


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2006 Sep 6, 3:39pm   13,547 views  160 comments

by StuckInBA   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

tombstone

I now agree with the housing bulls. There is no housing bubble.

The bubble is no longer "is", it is now "was".

Yes, I think it's time to officially declare that there is no longer a housing bubble in USA. There was one, whose size, implications and aftermath are the only remaining questions. The MSM has jumped on the bandwagon. The bulls (NAR, CAR and their mouthpieces) have no clue as to how to describe the situation.

The depth and speed of the unwinding process seems to have surprised everyone. Take a look at the DQ charts for Bay Area.

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPSJMN.shtm

San Mateo and Santa Cruz have -ve YOY gains for the median. Santa Clara is holding to a 0.1% gain. The price per SQFT is also rapidly trending downwards. Sales have fallen over the cliff. No matter how faulty and lagging these indicators are, they will make headlines. I was hoping to see that (-ve YOY median in Santa Clara county) happen by the end of this year. Seems like we are way ahead of schedule.

Maybe we all wish this to get over quickly, but we know it won't. Still, do you think it's happening faster than you had expected ? Or slower ? Or about the same ?

- StuckInBA

#housing

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154   Stan   2006 Sep 8, 9:52am  

If this isn't a sure sign of the times, I don't know what is:

http://www.sellyourpreconstruction.com/

Developers are going directly to the public to sell pre-construction sites. The last time I peeked, they would NEVER deal with the "unwashed masses" and only work with the "high class" professional brokers.

A caption from the home page reads....."Finally....Buyers meet sellers in the booming Real Estate market."

Question: If it's a booming real estate market, would they need such a site?

Dunno....maybe I'm just too stupid to figure out this here real estate thing. I'd better play it safe and go to a mortgage broker or real estate agent and trust them to tell me what I should do

155   Stan   2006 Sep 9, 1:14am  

Yep, here's the answer to the current market situation.

"This isn't a soft landing, it's harder than a soft landing," Toll told Reuters in an interview. But he denied the market was headed for a more dramatic decline in prices as some observers fear. "We are not crashing," he said.

He argued that demand for housing and consumer confidence in general have been hurt by concerns about terrorism, the war in Iraq and the response of the U.S. government to Hurricane Katrina.

Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive of Toll Brothers

Source: Reuters

Now that he's shared his expertise, it's clear as a bell. Last year when sales were soaring and there was no end in sight, terroism and the war had no effect. I know everyone across the country is in a state of complete panic over the Fed's response to Katrina......GIVE ME A BREAK!

Then, further in the interview he says:

"Next year, the company expects to build between 7,000 and 8,000 homes at an average price of $635,000 to $645,000. That's down from this year's expected production of 8,600 to 8,900 homes at an average price of $685,000 to $690,000."

Now, the average price will go down; but consider this:
Hard costs for land cannot be discounted, so where will they adjust their costs to maintain profit margins? Does materials and labor come to mind? If so, people will be getting a house with lower quality materials; put together with cheaper labor.....sound like a quality issue to you?

With so many new homes with SERIOUS structural defects, and rising, will this add to the problem? I don't think I'll be buying a Toll House....cookie maybe; but not my home.

156   astrid   2006 Sep 9, 4:45am  

You could be drowned by your own vomit or fluid filled lung.

157   surfer-x   2006 Sep 9, 9:29am  

Still no ‘pop’ here in the Westside of Los Angeles. Santa Monica, Brentwood, the Palisades are all are just humming along. Homes are sitting longer. Some by quite a lot.

Faggot, fuck off back to Craigslist. Is Sherman Oaks still Prime?

158   astrid   2006 Sep 11, 4:04am  

brahma,

Nothing wrong with vegetarianism. The problem is when they start proslytizing, especially when they proslyetize with misleading information. Also, they're a pain in social gatherings.

159   Peter P   2006 Sep 11, 6:28am  

Try some vegetarian Indian cuisine, the vast array of vegetarian dishes possible will show how evolutionally deprived this country is when it comes to vegetarian cooking.

I have tried many different type of veggie cuisines and I do like some. Truffles, for example, are truly wonderful.

I actually like veggies a lot (esp. arugula, broccoli rabe, chards, exotic mushrooms) but I like to cook them with chicken broth and/or bacon drippings.

However, there is no point restricting myself to just vegetables when there are so much out there.

Sorry, I do believe that the detiny of a farm animal is to be harvested. BTW, how do you know that you are not being cruel to vegetables when you harvest them?

Often meat itself is tasteless but the seasonings provide the taste, aroma and flavor.

Try kobe beef and toro. They have more flavor than seasonings.

I heard somewhere that many vegetarians have converted after trying kobe beef.

160   Peter P   2006 Sep 11, 6:34am  

I guess you will never grasp the hidden truth of animal cruelty until you yourself truly are victimised in a very bad way by lets say..the system…with very little possibility for redemption or recourse for no fault of yours.

I am sorry but animal cruelty really does not bother me. Do you know how many humans are suffering as we speak? I do not have time or energy to worry about food being mistreated.

No fault? How can you be sure?

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