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Quotes that will live in Infamy


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2006 Sep 8, 8:15am   20,514 views  230 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

day of infamy

Some notorious quotes --like events-- represent pivotal moments that should never be forgotten. They should be preserved for posterity and passed along to future generations to serve as a warning. Some of the crap the REIC (Real Estate Industrial Complex) has been spewing for the last 5 years meets this lowly standard of putrescence.

Whenever these shills try to reverse course, change their tunes or revise history in the face of (now undeniable) evidence that their empire is crumbling, these quotes should be trotted out and rubbed in their lying, ugly faces at every opportunity.

Here are some of my infamous favorites:

Source: L.A. Times (August 28, 2005)
“Equity Is Altering Spending Habits and View of Debt”

“If you paid your mortgage off, it means you probably did not manage your funds efficiently over the years,” said David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors and author of “Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?” “It’s as if you had 500,000 dollar bills stuffed in your mattress.”

He called it “very unsophisticated.”

Anthony Hsieh, chief executive of LendingTree Loans, an Internet-based mortgage company, used a more disparaging term. “If you own your own home free and clear, people will often refer to you as a fool. All that money sitting there, doing nothing.”

Source: Federal Reserve Board (February 23, 2004)
Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan: Understanding household debt obligations
(just as Greenspan was preparing to start RAISING rates from 1%)

"... many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade.

...American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home."

Source: N.Y. Times (March 25, 2005)
Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms

Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors says that "South Florida is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past." He predicts that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners will prolong the boom indefinitely.

Source: CNN Money/Fortune (February 13, 2006)
A tale of two markets

If you want to know where real estate prices are headed in California's Orange County, the man to talk to is Gary Watts. The Mission Viejo broker has 35 years of experience and doubles as a spokesman for the O.C.'s Association of Realtors.

... Since 1997, Orange County home prices have seen a 195 percent rise. Will the good times last another year? Gary doesn't hesitate. "Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006," he says. "It's impossible for prices to go down this year."

Source: N.Y. Times (October 16, 2005)
Chasing Ground
Bob Toll (President of Toll Brothers):

"In Britain you pay seven times your annual income for a home; in the U.S. you pay three and a half." The British get 330 square feet, per person, in their homes; in the U.S., we get 750 square feet. Not only does Toll say he believes the next generation of buyers will be paying twice as much of their annual incomes; in terms of space, he also seems to think they're going to get only half as much. "And that average, million-dollar insane home in the burbs? It's going to be $4 million."

Source: N.Y. Times (March 25, 2005)
Trading Places: Real Estate Instead of Dot-Coms:

"I just don't think we have what it takes to prick the bubble," said Diane C. Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial in Chicago, who was an optimist during the 90's. "I don't think prices are going to fall, and I don't think they're even going to be flat."

Source: Planet Jackson Hole (September 6, 2006)
Un-Real Estate

“‘In Jackson, the market doesn’t really go down,’ said (realtor) Linda Walker. Broker Ryan Olsen agrees. ‘We are immune to the up and down treads that plague many real estate markets,’ he says. ‘Our real estate market is essentially quite ‘bullet proof!’”

Source: Contra Costa Times (September 13, 2006)
Housing bubble may spare East Bay

One analyst agreed real estate will not implode in a bubble scenario. Sean Snaith, an economist who tracks regional economies in California, has opined that the Bay Area at worst would endure a housing soufflé that weakened slowly, not a bubble that evaporated.

"The run-up in housing prices was really driven by fundamentals, not speculation," Snaith said. "Growth in the Bay Area economy and the state overall was not confined to housing-related sectors."

Source: WILX.com (January 10, 2007)
Housing Market Recovery?

‘I think the decline that we’ve seen is not going to occur,’ said Tomie Raines Realty President Debbie D’Valentine.”

Source: newspress.com (January 24, 2007)
Low bids take glow off property auction

“At both days of the auction everyone spoken to said the bids came in too low and no one expected them to be accepted. Leibert was upset with the auction, calling it a ‘farce.’ She believes the bids were too low and the auction didn’t deliver serious bidders.”

“‘I think a lot of buyers thought they were going to bottom-feed. These are eager but not desperate sellers.’ Jeff Miloff said. ‘The auction tells me we are in a market correction.’ The bids were so unrealistic the auction showed people didn’t do their homework, Miloff said.”

Source: Monterey County Herald (June 29, 2006)
Reaching The Dream Without Moving In California

"Many in California have reached the dream of living in a million-dollar home without moving."
--Leslie Appleton-Young (vice president and chief economist for the California Association of Realtors)

Source: brisbanetimes.com (September 3, 2008)
Sky's no limit for property prices

"Brisbane’s median house price - currently about $450,000 - will hit $1 million in only seven years time and continue to climb, reaching $20 million by 2044, according to an in-depth research report by property firm Johnston Dixon.”"

CEO John Johnston said as ’staggering’ as the predictions sounded, they were based on growth values of the past 37 years. ‘Brisbane’s median house price has grown by 10.8 per cent annually for almost four decades,’ he said. ‘If values continue to grow for the next 37 years the way they have for the past 37 years, Brisbane will move into the sphere of generational home ownership.’

Please post some of your own favorite "pearls of wisdom" you feel are especially worthy of remembrance.

HARM

#housing

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81   astrid   2006 Sep 9, 4:48pm  

Clams are good. Though a good chunk of my family got Hep A through an unfortunate batch of raw clams once. So we always get a little paranoid around clams. We do cook with mussels a lot.

Have you ever tried really small softshell clams? They're called sea melon seeds and they're the size of pumpkin seeds. It's good beer food.

82   astrid   2006 Sep 9, 4:51pm  

"Costco has good scallops too."

Thanks for the tip. They have good frozen dungeness crabs and mussels too.

83   HARM   2006 Sep 9, 4:52pm  

@Peter P,

No I haven't, and thanks for the tip!

84   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 4:54pm  

Clams are good. Though a good chunk of my family got Hep A through an unfortunate batch of raw clams once. So we always get a little paranoid around clams. We do cook with mussels a lot.

I believe there is a vaccine for Hep A.

Have you ever tried really small softshell clams? They’re called sea melon seeds and they’re the size of pumpkin seeds. It’s good beer food.

Perhaps I have tried that in miso soup, but I am not too sure. I usually cook clams in a wine/beer/sake broth. I do not prepare raw seafood at home.

85   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 4:55pm  

They have good frozen dungeness crabs and mussels too.

I will try. I saw them at $4/lb. It takes some work to get the meat out though. A hammer would be useful.

86   astrid   2006 Sep 9, 4:58pm  

It was about twenty years ago in China. And I do try to keep my Hep A and Hep C vaccines current when I travel to China, just in case.

I haven't had sea melon seeds raw. They're good sauteed with a little rice wine, scallion and ginger.

87   astrid   2006 Sep 9, 5:00pm  

I don't have much trouble with dungeness crabs. A seafood cracker might be helpful. The blue crabs are a pain though, especially the claws.

88   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:01pm  

I haven’t had sea melon seeds raw.

I only had cherrystone and littleneck clams raw. They taste very good with mignonette sauce.

89   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:03pm  

The blue crabs are a pain though, especially the claws.

I had blue crabs once but I was more interested in the crab roe.

There seems to be a positive correlation between cholestestrol and taste. :)

90   astrid   2006 Sep 9, 5:12pm  

Blue crab roe is yummy. East Coast blue crabs taste a lot like Yangtze hairy crabs. The roe gets used like truffle, they use it to flavor many meat and vegetable dishes. Late September and October are very good times for crabs.

91   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:15pm  

Blue crab roe is yummy.

Yes. The roe was so good that forgot the crab had claws.

92   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:15pm  

how are crabs and housing alike??

At this time, they both walk sideways.

93   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:25pm  

When management asked people to stay late and work weekends, the H1-B’s always obliged fearing about being sent home. So, then I have to work the extra time because the H1-B’s will seldom say no, I’m not mad at them I came here on a visa also.

You do not have to do what they do. Perhaps you need another job. One should not have to put up with abusive management. You know, expectation does not necessarily have to be fulfilled.

94   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:31pm  

When management asked people to stay late and work weekends, the H1-B’s always obliged fearing about being sent home.

One can also have two cellphones and turn off the business line after work. The most overworked employees are not necessarily H-1Bs. They tend to be people who do not see a purpose in themselves. Consequently, they think work is all they have.

Go to a sushi bar and you will know there is more beyond work. :)

95   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:33pm  

One of the cafeteria’s at work had oxtail soup just last week. I had never had it before, so I took some. I won’t be trying it again.

Huh? Do not judge food in a cafeteria. It should be presumed bad unless proven otherwise.

96   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:40pm  

But now, I don’t care anymore, a job is just that, read the CNN/Money blog about how people got fired, sad stories but abusive management are alive and well.

If you have politically savvy bosses, you will not be laid off.

I am glad that you have realized "a job is just that".

“I’m sorry, but I forgot that you’re on the list also”

So what? This just illustrates that it is important to have enough saving to survive a temporary setback. Once that stress is gone, it is much easier to approach things.

97   Peter P   2006 Sep 9, 5:59pm  

It is just that I didn’t like the oxtail soup myself.

Perhaps. It is... different.

98   Different Sean   2006 Sep 9, 9:49pm  

Record foreclosures in Sydney: doubled since 2002...

Left with an empty feeling

"At Annandale, a "mortgagee in possession" house, bought 18 months ago for $750,000 was up for auction. But only a handful of interested parties went looking for a bargain.

The Susan Street home passed in at auction without attracting a single bid. Before the auction, Century 21 City West principal Matthew Meynell expected the three-bedroom, two-bathroom strata home to sell for about $550,000.

Afterwards, a potential buyer offered a mere $330,000."

99   Different Sean   2006 Sep 9, 11:26pm  

They tend to be people who do not see a purpose in themselves. Consequently, they think work is all they have.

Go to a sushi bar and you will know there is more beyond work.

how are crabs and housing alike??

At this time, they both walk sideways.

very wise today, peter p :P

100   Different Sean   2006 Sep 9, 11:41pm  

Also from that article:

It's not the only repossessed home in the popular inner-west. "There are a couple coming up and we have another in Annandale in a few weeks," Mr Meynell said. "I think some people overcapitalised and it has been very easy for people to borrow money.

The RE agents feign surprise that the RE market could collapse, 2 years after they were telling people 'it only goes up', and developers agents would put a 'conservative' 7% annual growth for 20 years into their projections to convince investors to buy... and they blame 'interest rate hikes' as the problem - so they can blame the Fed... altho lowered interest rates can only lead to a one-off price hike, and that will inevitably be undone when they go up again...

101   Different Sean   2006 Sep 9, 11:50pm  

maybe it's time to use a hieronymous bosch graphic for a thread to show capitalist boom/busts? just watched a show on it -- particularly the hell scene from the paradise tryptich...

http://www.abcgallery.com/B/bosch/bosch38.html

102   skibum   2006 Sep 10, 1:47am  

I haven't had a chance to peruse it yet, but today's Sunday NYT has a "new" magazine section (very thick): "Keys" or something like it - all about real estate! Should make for interesting bathroom reading later today.

103   Randy H   2006 Sep 10, 1:52am  

astrid,

On the other hand, compare AT&T’s prices and services in the 100+ years before the breakup and all the great stuff we have now for a fraction os the cost.

Big telecom happens to be my strongest industry of expertise. While that is a quite common popular conception, the reality is much more complex and much different. In fact, US telecom has fallen significantly behind Euro & Asian telecom's in those regards since dereg, while they were never deregulated and are still largely monopolies.

Also, you are confusing natural monopolies from socialized/state-run monopolies. The two are seldom one in the same.

104   Boston Transplant   2006 Sep 10, 2:01am  

I missed participating in the last thread's discussion of Boston as a leading indicator for the bubble so I thought I'd add my perspective now.

The pop has definitely hit the MSM here. The Boston Globe and Boston Herald both run articles on a weekly basis. The Mass Association of Realtors admits to a ~4% YOY median SFH decline, while the Warren Group (local analysts) come up ~6% decline (they include FSBO's).

On a square foot basis there is no doubt that a 10% decline has occurred for many neighborhoods, some of them very nice, such as Newton.

In the best downtown neighborhoods such as Back Bay and Beacon Hill (where we rent) sales have been sporadic enough that I cannot yet perceive a decline. I think this confirms the theory that the best neighborhoods will be the last to go. When we were looking to buy in Fall 2004, prices were about $650/sq ft, and we are not yet back to those prices.

Still, when I compare the rent on our apartment ($2360/month) to the approximate sale value ($750k) I cannot help but feel a cumulative 30% real decline will occur eventually.

When I talk to coworkers they are evenly split. Half believe declines will continue, half think things will level off. I do have a couple friends who bought two years ago and have been unable to sell without bringing money to the table.

The most interesting recent news is that there will be an auction for unsold condos in a new highrise on the waterfront:

"The developer of a new luxury condominium project in Boston's financial district is resorting to a tactic last seen in the real estate bust of the 1990s: It's holding an auction for the 34 remaining, unsold condominiums...

...A minimum bid will be required for each unit. A one-bedroom currently offered for sale at $480,000 will be sold at or above its $325,000 minimum price. The most expensive unit to be auctioned, a $1.76 million, two-bedroom with a wraparound terrace on the 14th floor with a waterfront view, has a $1.025 million minimum price..."

http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2006/09/06/going_once/

105   astrid   2006 Sep 10, 2:28am  

Randy,

I'll defer to your vastly superior (since I know almost nothing about these markets aside from some rather old Economist article) knowledge in this area. Though I will note that the Chinese cellphone service charges went down dramatically after the entry of a second player in the market. While I understand that multiple competitors in a single market can present technological challenges and bad for the companies involved, I'm far less convinced that the presence of competition is bad for the final customers.

"Also, you are confusing natural monopolies from socialized/state-run monopolies. The two are seldom one in the same."

Huh? I assume natural monopolies are utilities & railroads & airline & phone service and state run monopolies are patent monopolies & radio/TV stations given out to serve a stated public interest.

106   DinOR   2006 Sep 10, 2:33am  

Rat_Patrol,

That's some great footage of Ronnie Montrose and the boys. I'd love to be able to get my hands on the version of Ronnie backing Edgar Winter doing a timeless classic "Tobacco Road" on Don Kirshner's Rock and Roll in Concert. All 17 minutes of it!

The version of "Bad Motor Scooter" on their first album had a "slide guitar" intro that was out of this world. Unlike Tom Sholz of Boston that leaned heavily on artificial "sustain" Ronnie was just fine with the raw sound of his Les Paul straight through a Marshall stack. I'd pay money and stand in line to see him play today.

107   DinOR   2006 Sep 10, 2:35am  

"Oops, I guess armageddon hasn't hit yet"

Are you from this planet or just visiting?

108   DinOR   2006 Sep 10, 2:38am  

Almost made it to 9:00am on a Sunday morning without a troll parading ONE STINKING LISTING where some GF got his manhood taken away. Sheesh!

109   Randy H   2006 Sep 10, 2:47am  

Huh? I assume natural monopolies are utilities & railroads & airline & phone service and state run monopolies are patent monopolies & radio/TV stations given out to serve a stated public interest.

MSFT is a natural monopoly (despite one's feelings about their products). Natural monopolies are also very common within local markets. Even pre-big box store competition, nearly all small rural towns only had one hardware and one discount store. The irony was that Walmart entered as a competitor, driving down prices due to breaking the local monopoly (or duopoly in bigger towns). This is an example of competition lowering prices for end users, but simultaneously reducing value to end users.

110   Randy H   2006 Sep 10, 2:56am  

I don't want to come off defending monopolies (monopsonies, duopolies, cartels, etc.) In fact, they are usually a bad thing for both consumers and innovation.

But there's one thing to keep in mind:

Monopolies are not illegal in the US. Most people mistakenly believe antitrust laws prohibit monopolies. That is categorically false.

What is illegal is:

1) Explicit collusion
2) Price fixing
3) Direct harm to end-user consumers

Therefore, if Cisco were to become an established natural monopoly, did not collude with would be competitors or any other vertical player, did not fix prices for non-economic reasons, then it would not be guilty of violating antitrust laws. Cisco has few end consumers in non-competitive markets, so the Justice dept. doesn't care about their B2B monopoly impact.

That is a common theme. The US Justice Dept. sets an extremely high bar for the argument that any monopoly harming other businesses is relevant to protecting consumers. Almost no such cases make it out of the gate. Therefore don't expect to see SAP, Oracle, etc. ever embroiled in an antitrust suit.

(The standard in Europe is much more liberal, and allows companies to be challenged for merely "having a commanding market position". Ironic, given that Europe is the poster child for illegally subsidizing inefficient, inferior, defacto monopoly industries with state funding, but I digress.)

111   Randy H   2006 Sep 10, 3:43am  

Bap33,

Big oil in the US has been found guilty of all three on various occasions in the past. At this point, it is pretty unlikely that they engage in collusion or price fixing, at least within the US. They employ a different tactic, common of lots of big industrial, mature concerns. They send all their managers to the same MBA schools, where they all take the same economics classes and learn the same game-theory pricing strategies. Then, they are able to engage in something that looks a lot like price fixing, but is in fact completely legal and justifiable in our legal system.

It's like this: say there are 25 of us in a condo development who intend on selling in the next year. For simplicity, assume we are the only condo development in the area, and no other substitutes exist. Let's also pretend that we are not allowed to talk to each other to fix our sales prices, and we in fact can't talk to each other about anything else that would result in our cooperation on pricing.

Normally, we're screwed, because someone will figure out, hey if I price a little less than everyone else, I'll get the best price because everyone else will have to follow suit on the way down. In the end, we all lose because we didn't cooperate.

Now, we all spend 2 years in school somewhere on the East Coast, where we learn how to play theoretical pricing games. This time, when we run the scenario, no one defects because everyone knows that we'll all get much higher prices by not defecting.

As for international oil, or other cartels, there's little the US can do about it. Diamonds, Oil, bananas, sugar, about everything you can think of is controlled by some type of int'l cartel outside the US, often impacting our prices here, and often even in the vehicle of US multinationals.

112   Randy H   2006 Sep 10, 3:50am  

And oil companies are a good example of a natural monopoly (oligopoly, in this case). That's because there are enormous natural barriers to entry:

-massive capital investment requirements
-substantial know how and technique implications
-regulatory hurdles
-resource barriers (tie up reserves in long-term contracts)
-capacity barriers (dissuade entrants by increasing existing capacity)

113   surfer-x   2006 Sep 10, 3:52am  

Behold, a lower unit flat selling after 2 weeks on the market for full asking. Oops, I guess armageddon hasn’t hit yet.

Wow when the trolls gleefully post that condos in PRIME areas are going for asking, you know the excrement has hit the cooling device.

114   astrid   2006 Sep 10, 4:00am  

Randy,

Absolutely agree. I don't think the government should be breaking up companies unless they can demonstrate a pattern of anti-competitive behavior that ultimately harms consumers. I'm not opposed to monopolies per se, but given their track record, I do view them with prejudice.

I don't think of Microsoft as a monopoly though. They are currently very dominant, but I think that dominance could quickly go away at any time. There are numerous (arguably superior) OSes in existence. The main stumbling block is consumer inertia. I'm 100% Windows based, but MS software is buggy (formating with Word is especially frustrating) and I definitely keep an eye on better software and flatforms on the horizon. Firefox and many of the Google packages weren't even on the radar 18 months ago, but now almost everyone I know uses Picasa or Firefox ahead of other things.

On European monopolies: well, monopolies are legal as long as the State explicitly allows for them. In the US, regulated industries like broadcast TV stations act a lot like oligopolies until cable stations started challenging them for market share.

PS - I'm always surprised by where apparently benign monopolies and oligopolies can show up. There's only one Kingsford charcoal, Clorox is synonmous with bleach, Kodak has 80+% of the 35mm film industry, and allegedly, the Boomers grew up with only campbell soup for their canned soup selection. It seems like technological innovation is the best way to bust a monopoly.

115   Peter P   2006 Sep 10, 4:01am  

It is full with compliant Indian and Chinese ….

Just find a company with the right culture.

116   Peter P   2006 Sep 10, 4:01am  

I don’t think the government should be breaking up companies unless they can demonstrate a pattern of anti-competitive behavior that ultimately harms consumers. I’m not opposed to monopolies per se, but given their track record, I do view them with prejudice.

I have nothing to say.

117   astrid   2006 Sep 10, 4:05am  

Is that good or bad?

118   skibum   2006 Sep 10, 4:06am  

Boston Transplant,

Thanks for the update. I saw that Globe article about the auction for that downtown condo development. What's interesting about that is the place looks like reasonably high-end finishes, and if units get auctioned off at anywhere near the minimum acceptable bid, that's over 30% off original asking price! The folks who already bought the "old-fashioned" way are going to be "wicked pissed!"

119   astrid   2006 Sep 10, 4:08am  

Ha Ha,

"Compliant Indian and Chinese"? Do you mean they're legal? Or that they only produce X units of CO2 per thousand lines of code?

120   skibum   2006 Sep 10, 4:10am  

Hey location3,

Did you just crawl out of a cave or something? Or did you just happen to "miss" all the actual hard data about where prices are heading? For example, SF prices down YoY July -0.6%?

http://dqnews.com/RRBay0806.shtm

One example of an idiot late into the game, or even someone who wants to buy for whatever reason doesn't disprove actual data.

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