patrick.net

I know nothing about Mankiw. He was just listed on Boggers “blog’s of note” and I thought Randy might want to take a look.

I have Mankiw's text "Macroeconomics" listed on my blog in the reference reading column. He is probably the most coherent and convincing of the neo-classic camp, and his works were largely responsible in my neoclassic bias (although I am not religious about neoclassic economics, but I think the meta-framework is largely incontrovertible).

I haven't read his blog in a while, but I used to quite a bit. I've been spending more time delving into behavioral economics (Eric Johnson; Columbia, whom I had the pleasure of studying under for a term at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin during my international semester. The other was Joseph Stiglitz at London Business School.)

...and I missed the whole eugenics debate, sadly. I'll just say:

1. There are plenty of good, logical, practical arguments against it.
2. There are probably good genetic diversity/evolutionary arguments against it too.
3. It will happen anyway. It's just a matter of when and for whom.
4. If it already is happening, and the result are the CNBC girls, then I say sit back and enjoy it until we're fossils in someone else's evolutionary record.

is it dangerous tampering with human diversity? leaders, followers, religious people, sceptics, honest people, dissemblers, scientists, humanists and writers, economists, musicians, comedians, sportsmen, calm people, emotional people, are all different...

however, market societies seem to be selecting on a combination of intelligence and drive... resulting in a one-dimensional valuing of the ability to accumulate unto oneself...

and what if there was a fatal flaw in the genetically engineered übermensch? what if they were a narcissistic powerpath? what values should be inscribed in the genome? self-entitlement or altruism? carnality or cerebrality? how many different models should we make? etc

i think genius is 100% innate tho, as long as a person has a reasonable upbringing regarding nutrition etc. however, we can posit many kinds of specific intelligence which seldom occur at once in any one person: musical, physical (sporting), social, humour, mathematical, visual/spatial, artistic, verbal. currently, IQ tests tend to focus only on verbal and mathematical/symbolic intelligence. even speed and accuracy of recall plays a strong part in defining this sort of intelligence, which once again is seldom measured...

Randy H Says:
I missed the whole eugenics debate

there's still some life in it yet...

1.
2.
3.
4.

very cogently put as always...

who are these CNBC girls? where can i find such a girl?

I don’t think it is likely to generate the results they desire.

More proof that "Utopia" is impossible. I think we are stuck getting better AND worse.

In Q1, a 160 sq m apartment on level three is $650,000.

Level 3 works fine for me. :)

Infant Deaths After C-Sections Rise Even in Low-Risk Pregnancies

What if the birth occurs at the right time? Can one choose fate?

In SF, new apartment costs at least US$750/sqft (even 1st floor) in trendy but not upscale neighborhoods. Looks like SF is more overpriced.

All surgeries are risky.

The HOA fees (levies) seems low. Are they usually less than AUD$1000 a quarter?

Here in silly valley, an absolute crap can have an HOA fee of US$300 a month.

How is the immigration policy down south? :)

The last full year (1966) my family lived in Scotland the highest maximum temperature for the year in our town on the Fife coast was 68 degrees.

68 degree sounds like an ideal temperature. How cold can it get?

HOAs seem to vary from as low as $250 pq for a set of townhouses or 2-3 storey apartments in Melbourne (without lifts) up to about $1600 pq in the CBD of Sydney, with lifts, pool, gym, 24 hr concierge. new developments away from the CBD with more extensive grounds and gardens are often a little less, maybe $600-$1000 pq, probably because there's no concierge.

there were a lot of traps with big developers setting low-ish HOAs in the first year of a new development so people would buy in, then raising them the next year to some fiendish level, particularly in Sydney.

HOAs in the inner suburbs of Melbourne away from the highrises seem the least toxic.

Doug H,

"I truly attempt to make the deal a win-win"

That's always been hard for me to keep in mind and at the fore front of my interfacing with the seller. Because I have (as you again remind us) done SO MUCH "homework" on the seller I get totally focused on where my leverage is and tend to trample (in their mind anyway) on the sellers sense of dignity!

Many of our parents taught us the importance of driving a hard bargain but also stressed leaving the seller with the sense that he has walked away with something as well.

Even with int. rates as low as they've been it's still important not to overpay for your home! Patrick (the web sites founder) stresses that we must negotiate hard on price as terms can (and often are) re-negotiated later. Every dollar you borrow to buy a home is 3 to 4 you'll have to pay back. For every dollar you overpay on your monthly PITI that's a dollar NOT going into your ret. acct. HSA (Health Savings Account) etc.

One of the many sharp gals that participates here reminds us that overpaying on a home is like "making someone else's retirement" (one payment at a time!)

You mentioned NOT writing a book. I wish someone would! There's enough pulp out there about making your first million in RE to fill the Cow Palace. Most of it on building a rental portfolio (that way they can have more than one chapter). What the buying public really needs is a "primer" on this very topic. Even if they only buy ONE home in their lives!

Does anyone know why DL didn’t front for the NAR?

Top 10 reasons DL stayed away:

- he had a cold
- he's too busy putting his own 5 flip properties on the market before it's too late
- he's ruled himself out as an expert because he only predicted 9 out of the last 2 booms, and none of the busts...

You know, SoCalMortGuy did a great piece on what I can only describe as the "instant buyer"!

He discussed how up until recently when folks transferred jobs or just simply moved it was standard to rent for a year or two while they evaluated their new area. For years it just made sense.

Well now with all of the "guaranteed appreciation" this transient crowd became buyers right out of the gate! 1 or 2 years on the sidelines renting means 1 or 2 years of no house ATM! I mean think about it, how many of us have heard friends/co-workers/relatives actually get on a plane, go buy the house THEN come home and list their existing home?

As evidenced in the 22% YOY decline in mortgage apps. for the week this all too eager buyer has been taken out of the equation! (Truth is the never should have been there in the first place).

It wasn't that long ago that being new to an area and new on the job "might" have been a hinderance in getting a mortgage? Do you know how many people I've seen over the years that didn't make it through the first week? Was it that we were so confident that even if the job didn't work out (that the house would?)

Which category are you in?

1. Seriously planning on buying a house; which means you have a plan in place and are working the plan

2. Seriously complaining about the housing market; which means you hate the housing situation, aren't going to do anything about home ownership, and want to vent your frustration.

Not being judgmental.....just curious.

Have you ever noticed how prices drop on commodities just before elections? coincedence? Oil, natural gas, gasoline, gold, silver, copper all down. The bulls on CNBC are back to soft landing scenario.

GOP working it hard.

ajh Says:

The thing that intrigued me about this hearing was that the “economist” witness for the NAR was Tom Stephens (NAR President) rather than David Lareah. The other 3 organisations (FDIC, OFHEO and NAHB) were all represented by their Chief Economists.

I don't know if anyone else mentioned this yet, but the CNBC ("The Eugenics Network") coverage was interesting - the reporter (another hottie) cornered Tom Stevens and asked him about why his house has been on the market in NVa for over a year at $1.5M. His reply was something lame about not being around much all year, and, get this, NOT LISTENING TO HIS AGENT ABOUT LISTING PRICE!! This is after testifying in no uncertain terms that there is no housing bubble.

I realize he is in CYA mode, and he is also plugging for using a Realtor (tm), but c'mon, give me a break! Is the President of the NAR saying that he ignored his Realtor's advice on listing price? Isn't he a realtor by trade himself? Hilarious stuff. Pretty much lives up to my prediction of a Godfather 2-like scenario: "we just import olive oil and have some financial interests in Las Vegas casinos."

Alien,

Yes, a general question for everyone here; just to get a handle on where the conversations are coming from and heading towards.

There's no "wrong" answer; just curious how the discussion can best be moved forward. I wanted to make sure nobody thought the question was judgmental or one topic is more important than another.

Thanks!

Sylvie Says:

> Have you ever noticed how prices drop on commodities
> just before elections?

Yes

> GOP working it hard.

The Dems are also "working it hard" to stay in office...

Just before elections the GOP and Dems will work together to stay in power (since they agree on 90% of the stuff anyway) then after the election they start fighting over the last 10% again (where the GOP wants a cool new missile system or attack sub and the Dems want new programs to boost the self esteem of crack addicted gang members or gay third graders)...

Doug H,

As I've always said; I don't need to have the entire res. RE market crash! All I need is one hell of a deal to get me off the sidelines. Haven't seen one yet (but that desn't mean I'm not still looking).

When it comes to "idle complaining" I/we don't feel it's unreasonable to see:

1. De-reg. of universally accepted 6% comm.

2. Some semblance of underwriting standards.

3. The opening of MLS.

4. Appraisals that are accurate and honest.

5. Repeal of the "2 year get out of jail tax free card".

Typically it's buyers that set the prices. As they have no skin in the game and are in too many cases paying only partial payments they've been all too willing to bid prices up. Since after two years (yes, on "primary res.") they can walk away scot free they likely would have continued unabated.

When you really look at it, there's no real difference in fundamentals between this summer and last. (They were shaky then and they're shaky now) but there really hasn't been anything revealed in 2006 that we didn't already know in 2005? Well, the "re-set" looms ever closer and of course sales have fallen off a cliff and inventory has swelled beyond belief! These are all the results of market psychology (hell the Fed stopped with their penny ante rate "hikes" didn't they?)

I want to learn!

(I just want to learn, without getting burned!)

The failure of western people to adequately reproduce is the major issue the world will face. According to "Human Achievement", most of the major advances in civilization arise from 4-5 nations. And within those nations only very specific regions made the overwhelming contributions to science, business, arts, medicine,etc. But I disagree with the notion that Open Societies produce the most attractive people. Take Manhattan: largely unattractive people. Russia, eastern/central europe probably most attractive people.

new topic: Breeding the perfect CNBC reporter

SQT and others:

Too many times, from too many doctors and nurses, out comes the phrase –you must belong to the Women’s Club, ie–hysterical woman complaining about invisible pains and symptoms.

I agree, there's a real bias against women (as well as minorities) in medicine. I think this is changing, though. Especially when you consider across the US, more than 50% of med students are women now. Yes, it will take time to reflect in the number of practicing MD's, and yes, that fails to address any glass ceiling issues or more ingrained biases against female patients, but I really do believe change is occurring.

DinOR,

When it comes to “idle complaining” I/we don’t feel it’s unreasonable to see:

1. De-reg. of universally accepted 6% comm.
That is the case NOW. Commissions, nationwide avg 5.1%
On my last house, I negotiated a 4%, should conditions be met.
EVERYTHING is negotiable....everything. LOL
I've got some pet gripes about some builder spifs that I'd like to see addressed w/regulation.....gripes my butt when there's some backdoor stuff going on.

2. Some semblance of underwriting standards.
Not sure what you mean....help me?

3. The opening of MLS.
In what way? It's pretty much an open book once you have access, and that's easy to get.

4. Appraisals that are accurate and honest.
They are WAY too close to the deal and I agree with you about appraisers who submit to support the price instead of the other way around. What I do is, in the qualifying interview with the appraiser, let him know I will challenge his report and if he cannot defend it; he don't get paid....at least by me.

5. Repeal of the “2 year get out of jail tax free card”.
I'm not sure I follow you on this one....do you mean LTCG tax?

Appreciate the dialogue......