patrick.net

Does anyone know why DL didn’t front for the NAR?

Top 10 reasons DL stayed away:

- he had a cold
- he's too busy putting his own 5 flip properties on the market before it's too late
- he's ruled himself out as an expert because he only predicted 9 out of the last 2 booms, and none of the busts...

You know, SoCalMortGuy did a great piece on what I can only describe as the "instant buyer"!

He discussed how up until recently when folks transferred jobs or just simply moved it was standard to rent for a year or two while they evaluated their new area. For years it just made sense.

Well now with all of the "guaranteed appreciation" this transient crowd became buyers right out of the gate! 1 or 2 years on the sidelines renting means 1 or 2 years of no house ATM! I mean think about it, how many of us have heard friends/co-workers/relatives actually get on a plane, go buy the house THEN come home and list their existing home?

As evidenced in the 22% YOY decline in mortgage apps. for the week this all too eager buyer has been taken out of the equation! (Truth is the never should have been there in the first place).

It wasn't that long ago that being new to an area and new on the job "might" have been a hinderance in getting a mortgage? Do you know how many people I've seen over the years that didn't make it through the first week? Was it that we were so confident that even if the job didn't work out (that the house would?)

Which category are you in?

1. Seriously planning on buying a house; which means you have a plan in place and are working the plan

2. Seriously complaining about the housing market; which means you hate the housing situation, aren't going to do anything about home ownership, and want to vent your frustration.

Not being judgmental.....just curious.

Have you ever noticed how prices drop on commodities just before elections? coincedence? Oil, natural gas, gasoline, gold, silver, copper all down. The bulls on CNBC are back to soft landing scenario.

GOP working it hard.

ajh Says:

The thing that intrigued me about this hearing was that the “economist” witness for the NAR was Tom Stephens (NAR President) rather than David Lareah. The other 3 organisations (FDIC, OFHEO and NAHB) were all represented by their Chief Economists.

I don't know if anyone else mentioned this yet, but the CNBC ("The Eugenics Network") coverage was interesting - the reporter (another hottie) cornered Tom Stevens and asked him about why his house has been on the market in NVa for over a year at $1.5M. His reply was something lame about not being around much all year, and, get this, NOT LISTENING TO HIS AGENT ABOUT LISTING PRICE!! This is after testifying in no uncertain terms that there is no housing bubble.

I realize he is in CYA mode, and he is also plugging for using a Realtor (tm), but c'mon, give me a break! Is the President of the NAR saying that he ignored his Realtor's advice on listing price? Isn't he a realtor by trade himself? Hilarious stuff. Pretty much lives up to my prediction of a Godfather 2-like scenario: "we just import olive oil and have some financial interests in Las Vegas casinos."

Alien,

Yes, a general question for everyone here; just to get a handle on where the conversations are coming from and heading towards.

There's no "wrong" answer; just curious how the discussion can best be moved forward. I wanted to make sure nobody thought the question was judgmental or one topic is more important than another.

Thanks!

Sylvie Says:

> Have you ever noticed how prices drop on commodities
> just before elections?

Yes

> GOP working it hard.

The Dems are also "working it hard" to stay in office...

Just before elections the GOP and Dems will work together to stay in power (since they agree on 90% of the stuff anyway) then after the election they start fighting over the last 10% again (where the GOP wants a cool new missile system or attack sub and the Dems want new programs to boost the self esteem of crack addicted gang members or gay third graders)...

Doug H,

As I've always said; I don't need to have the entire res. RE market crash! All I need is one hell of a deal to get me off the sidelines. Haven't seen one yet (but that desn't mean I'm not still looking).

When it comes to "idle complaining" I/we don't feel it's unreasonable to see:

1. De-reg. of universally accepted 6% comm.

2. Some semblance of underwriting standards.

3. The opening of MLS.

4. Appraisals that are accurate and honest.

5. Repeal of the "2 year get out of jail tax free card".

Typically it's buyers that set the prices. As they have no skin in the game and are in too many cases paying only partial payments they've been all too willing to bid prices up. Since after two years (yes, on "primary res.") they can walk away scot free they likely would have continued unabated.

When you really look at it, there's no real difference in fundamentals between this summer and last. (They were shaky then and they're shaky now) but there really hasn't been anything revealed in 2006 that we didn't already know in 2005? Well, the "re-set" looms ever closer and of course sales have fallen off a cliff and inventory has swelled beyond belief! These are all the results of market psychology (hell the Fed stopped with their penny ante rate "hikes" didn't they?)

I want to learn!

(I just want to learn, without getting burned!)

The failure of western people to adequately reproduce is the major issue the world will face. According to "Human Achievement", most of the major advances in civilization arise from 4-5 nations. And within those nations only very specific regions made the overwhelming contributions to science, business, arts, medicine,etc. But I disagree with the notion that Open Societies produce the most attractive people. Take Manhattan: largely unattractive people. Russia, eastern/central europe probably most attractive people.

new topic: Breeding the perfect CNBC reporter

SQT and others:

Too many times, from too many doctors and nurses, out comes the phrase –you must belong to the Women’s Club, ie–hysterical woman complaining about invisible pains and symptoms.

I agree, there's a real bias against women (as well as minorities) in medicine. I think this is changing, though. Especially when you consider across the US, more than 50% of med students are women now. Yes, it will take time to reflect in the number of practicing MD's, and yes, that fails to address any glass ceiling issues or more ingrained biases against female patients, but I really do believe change is occurring.

DinOR,

When it comes to “idle complaining” I/we don’t feel it’s unreasonable to see:

1. De-reg. of universally accepted 6% comm.
That is the case NOW. Commissions, nationwide avg 5.1%
On my last house, I negotiated a 4%, should conditions be met.
EVERYTHING is negotiable....everything. LOL
I've got some pet gripes about some builder spifs that I'd like to see addressed w/regulation.....gripes my butt when there's some backdoor stuff going on.

2. Some semblance of underwriting standards.
Not sure what you mean....help me?

3. The opening of MLS.
In what way? It's pretty much an open book once you have access, and that's easy to get.

4. Appraisals that are accurate and honest.
They are WAY too close to the deal and I agree with you about appraisers who submit to support the price instead of the other way around. What I do is, in the qualifying interview with the appraiser, let him know I will challenge his report and if he cannot defend it; he don't get paid....at least by me.

5. Repeal of the “2 year get out of jail tax free card”.
I'm not sure I follow you on this one....do you mean LTCG tax?

Appreciate the dialogue......