patrick.net

Tom "the tool" Stevens' home has been on the market for a year! He's now going to take his agent's advice and lower his asking price!

"Which one you gonna kill first Marshall"*

Shorty, in High Plains Drifter*

Newsfreak,

DinOR is absolutely correct and his statement should not get lost in the present conversation as it is THE MOST important financial principle in the book and step number one in making money......

I'll paraphrase and say it again; it's that important!

Profit is made on the buying side
Profit is realized on the selling side

All you are doing when you sell is protecting the profit you made when you bought.

Doug H,

It is SO refreshing to hear your well chosen words! I preach (what to me are very rudimentary principles) and yet these basic concepts have a tendency to somehow get trampled in the process. We should start every thread with this "team prayer"!

Marshall Duncan was Clint Eastwood's character in High Plains Drifter. At the start of the movie he fades in on his trusty steed as if a mirage. At the end of the movie he fades out in the same manner. (In between a lot of people meet their end). I make a lot of "spaghetti western" analogies. I have a firm belief that just as in business the plot is really no more complicated. I like you though, steer clear of negative tactics.

SFWoman Says:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. lawmakers will question some leading government and industry economists about the perils of a possible ‘housing bubble’ in a Wednesday hearing.

I'm picturing something like the Congressional hearings in Godfather 2:

Tom Stevens is testifying, saying how there is no housing bubble, "we just sell olive oil and run a few casinos in Vegas." Then David Lereah testifies, about to spill the beans about the housing bubble and RE cartel, and his long-lost brother from the old country shows up in the audience. Days later, Lereah slashes his wrists in a hot bath.

HARM,

I realize you have an actual job but when you get the chance can you re-post the link to our Negotiating 101 Thread? This way Doug H can pick it apart for us with his "red pen"?

There's a new Sheriff in town!

skibum,

Yeah, given the "cast" I was wondering what kind of a dog and pony show this was going to be anyway?

When the NAR Chief's home has been on the market for a YEAR and he says he should've listened to his agent for a price reduction I think they've already sent what little of a msg. they could.

With gas prices sliding I think the consumer will be focused on holiday shopping (not house hunting) hence Robert Cote's Fall Maul (TM)!

SFWoman Says:

Apparently, things are going swimmingly, here as in Afganistan.

Janet Yellen seems more and more out of touch each time I see a quote from her. How do seemingly well-educated and intelligent economists come off as so clueless?

DinOr,

I hope that with gas prices falling, we do not see a resurgence in SUV orders (or "crossover", or whatever tactic is used to get around CAFE).

But this time no HELOCs to buy them with!

Oops!

http://money.cnn.com/2006/09/13/real_estate/foreclosures_spiking/index.htm?postversion=2006091311

If you guys want to see the current NAR spin on the housing market (ala Blanche Evans, that insipid hosebag), check this out:

http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20060911_narexpects.htm

It seemed like a painful defeat when the National Association of Realtors issued its projection last week that home sales would be lower than previously thought, but Chief Economist David Lereah worried months ago that housing would be in trouble if short-term interests rates were taken higher by the Federal Reserve. Luckily for housing, the FED decided to pause at 5.25 percent, but it may have been too little, too late, as Lereah feared.

Whether it was the unseasonable heat across the nation or the desire to see home prices fall along with interest rates, buyers stayed home in droves.

Yes, Blanche, let's blame the Fed, fussy buyers, AND the weather!

Yeah, Blanche Evans........

What can I say? After all, 6 1/4% on a 30 FRM is pretty freakin' high. I just know that Dave Seiders and Tom "Can't Even Sell His Own House, The Tool" Stevens are breakin' out the "knee pads" at this hearing!

These people have tapped out every legitimate home owner and "qualified" every GF they could get their hands on and now they need "The Great Free Money Bird" to return to re-ignite sales!

O.K, we'll turn the spigot back on AFTER you open MLS de-regulate commissions, cease and desist your cartel practices and Oh Yeah, get DOM back up!

My mother lived in a little castle in Scotland with thick walls, and it was about 60 degrees in it year ’round. With the heat full and all fireplaces going it was 60 degrees. In a baking, 72 degree day in early September it was 60 degrees inside. I see why the castles are so inexpensive up there.

I love 60 degrees inside. Can it maintain 60 degrees when it is 105 outside?

It was 109 up there this summer, and I turned on the air conditioner because it was 81 inside and I am supposed to run the air condioner at least once or twice a year.

81 is still too hot. 75 is my limit. 65 would be just right. Perhaps I should move to Scotland. :)

NAR Chief testifies before Congress and informs them there is no RE bubble. What a tool. Then afterwards Dianna the CNBC reporter (and yet another byproduct of their evil eugenic breeding program) jumps him with a question about why his own house has been on the market for over a year.

Mr. Stevens' answer: "[smirking] well, I haven't been home very much...I haven't even been there at all for the past 6 months so it's a challenge. People need to listen to their agents."

His home is $1.45M in formerly red hot Virginia/DC.

Hey, Mr. Stevens: I'll offer you $449K right now, sight unseen. lol

Prefab homes intrigue me. If you are subject to floods, hurricanes,etc seems perfect answer. Do these homes meet US building code? Anyone with US experience?

You can also design for passive cooling, utilizing air flow - Draw it in to the building at ground level (ideally below ground level) and vent it from the apex of the roof. There is a little more to it, but thats the basic technique.

Excellent.

Prefab homes intrigue me. If you are subject to floods, hurricanes,etc seems perfect answer. Do these homes meet US building code? Anyone with US experience?

Prefab homes are NOT mobile homes. Prefab is just a building process.

http://www.mkd-arc.com/

Peter P,

Michelle is actually addressing the AIA here in Portland tomorrow! I wish I could take time off to hear her! I really like the "Breeze-house". The Glide-house is cool don't get me wrong but I really like the idea of basically having "two" houses. With the center breezeway/enclosure dividing down the center it lends itself to privacy as well as a shared space.

Living in a geologically active area (like Iceland) would be really great for home heating and cheap electricity. Unlimited hot water and saunas for everyone!

Michelle is actually addressing the AIA here in Portland tomorrow!

I saw her at Sunset in Menlo Park last year or so. I like her ideas.

Somehow I like the Glidehouse better. With two indoor cats we will have to keep doors closed anyway. (Also, I did not like the outdoor too much.)

The Breezehosue is indeed very nice though.

Randy H,

When you get a chance please read Doug H's posts above. He actually affirms your approach to "lowball" offers but with some very interesting wrinkles. Just when you have time.

Peter P,

She claims that the "Breeze" also has energy saving attributes and the "pool" is really more a reflecting pool to draw cool air in hotter months. I've always kind of liked the "haciendas" the Spanish built when Colombia was still a colony. Michelle captures the idea of the courtyard without having to build two additional wings!

Here in Oregon we have so many days is the fall/spring that are too nice to be couped up yet not quite nice enough for shorts. I guess that's why her designs appeal to me.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill Tuesday to give California one of the highest minimum wages in the nation.

Sometimes I wonder if he is a true republican.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003256333_ndig13.html

The currency is being destroyed.

In the Utopia, there is no minimum wage! :)

She claims that the “Breeze” also has energy saving attributes and the “pool” is really more a reflecting pool to draw cool air in hotter months.

I love reflecting pools. I am not going to swim anyway.

I like the idea of a center courtyard though, but I want it completely enclosed.

*unlurks*
I'm a day behind Robert Coté's and Astrid's most fascinating debate about his dystopia and I find plenty of his points to not make any sense. Rather than force you all to read a very long 1100 word post I'll try to lob it to his blog (exurbanation.blogspot.com) since his comment section isn't very busy.

Robert, sorry for dumping it there (off topic and weird to move discussions one from place to another) but I can't find your email here or there. Look under yesterday's post " Not Peak Oil Again" for my dump. If you prefer you can reply by email (see Patrick HARM, RAndy H or whoever can see my email from admin level) The rest of you can go there to read it...in lengthy detail, if you wish.
*unlurks*

"I am not going to swim anyway"

Even though I happen to like pool parties and doing belly flops etc. most pools get very little actual use. At least with her designs the thing serves SOME purpose!

At least with her designs the thing serves SOME purpose!

Exactly. And you can still have a pool party. :)

TOLurker,

You're still unlurked. We can see you.

After reading the Washington Post coverage on the Senate hearing today I'd have to say that while RE sellers are squarely in the "Anger Phase" the REIC is still in total denial!

Maybe I don't understand their message. There is no bubble (let alone a crash) and things will level off after (two?) overheated years and then resume it's stratospheric ascent? Is that what I heard? Oh, as long as int. rates don't go any higher!

DinOR, Doug H

Great stuff on negotiating. I haven't tried the multiple purchase offer tactic, although I certainly will in the future.

I'm saddened to say that my "lowballing" (not actually lowballing, but reasonable-balling, just way below what many sellers think is reasonable at present) has been suspended. I've run into a wall of unexpected resistance here in South Marin.

I'll explain more later in a thread I'm planning on writing. The short of it is that agents here are very incestuous, and have absolutely no hesitation at breaking either CAR/NAR ethics codes or even the law. Basically, I can seldom get an offer through to the actual seller. Anything that goes to an agent gets ignored or tossed in the trash. When I can find out the actual seller's name & address, I send them the offer as registered mail only to have had all but one of those returned to sender unopened.

It seems the problem here is lots of vacant owners who've delegated entirely to the agents. But strangely, even in one case where the owner occupied the place, wasn't a retiree, and I had their full name, they still refused the certified letter with the offer. Obviously they just did what the agent told them to do. (In this case I sent the offer to the agent and seller simultaneously--ok I made sure the seller got it a few days beforehand, so I conclude that the agent pre-instructed the seller to refuse registered mail or something....maybe because I'm not the first such offer?)

And then there's the "reputation" problem. I'm looking in a narrow range of communities, within a narrow range of home types. Probably half the agents now know what I'm doing and they've added me to their blacklist.

Firstly: who was arguing with me that prices wouldn't be sticky downwards? If only I could laugh.

Secondly: I'm not sure what to do at this point other than wait and hope things loosen up, or hire a pro like FAB as a take-no-prisoners commercial-minded broker.

Oh, as long as int. rates don’t go any higher!

Sounds like the Bargaining phase to me. ;)

I’ll explain more later in a thread I’m planning on writing.

Quick, before I start yet another silly thread!

You and the seller BOTH sue the agent for violation of fudiciary duty.

What's the point? No need to upset more people now.

Randy,

Wow. Talk about "going the extra mile" for your cause. You are to be commended, sir!

Have you considered pitching your story as a "local interest" piece to a local news station? Consumer advocate/investigative reporter types just love this stuff (assuming their station's editorial policy allows them to report honestly on RE). Perhaps they could do a feauture piece on seller's agents who refuse to present legally tendered offers, feauturing you as the "victim". :-)

They could do a Mike Wallace-style spot on you running after fleeing realtor with signed offer in hand: "Hold on, Mr. Watts! Why won't you present a valid legal offer to your client? It's the right thing to do and it's the LAW!"

No reason to complete the transaction, just collect the treble damages and nail the agent’s license to your wall. Who’ll need straw bales for insulation?

:lol:

Randy H,

Thanks for the update. To answer your question....... YES it's incest.

I believe we've already established that not presenting the offer is an offense? Well that's one way to create stickiness! I would send another letter to both the realtor and seller reminding them exactly the chapter and verse of the CA Rev. Statutes applies to this and remind especially the realtor that he/she may be opening themselves up to liability if prices soften further!

Dear Mr. Realt-whore,

Your blatant disregard for (insert statute here) has placed you in a position of culpability if/when your client "the seller" decides down the road that my offer WAS reasonable! If my research reveals that a subsequent offer was accepted at a lower price you "may" be liable for the difference!

(Still feeling so confident?)

From the Law Offices of:

RC,

You weren't the only one. This is a classic example of sticky prices. The time between the sellers asking for a "wishing price" and the sellers actually accepting a market price is the period of stickiness. If this were an efficient market there wouldn't be this delay.

Randy H,

This is the very first problem anyone in retail securities faces.

Client: That POS stock you sold me is going down everyday. Sell it now.

Broker: O.K, SOLD at the market! Anything else I can do for you today?

(Any response other than "O.K" just invites liability)

Unless of course you know for a fact that it will only go up!

Why is it that realt-whores consider themselves above the law in almost every regard? Especially without even opening the envelope! That's balls (or stupidity).

RC,

Uhmm, volume is decreasing. But stickiness as I usually deal with it in models is inverse volume weighted delay in price action. So low stickiness is high volume, fast price movements. High stickiness is low volume, slow price movements.

I don't know about your piece of the world, but here it's definitely the latter occurring.

I disagree about utilizing B-S'ish technique to housing prices. You could use the greeks to model the real-options baked into home ownership (mortgage prepayment, refi, sell, don't sell, etc.). But you can't apply such methods to the underlying market value. That is driven by primary macro/micro interactions, which we collectively call fundamentals.

But you can’t apply such methods to the underlying market value. That is driven by primary macro/micro interactions, which we collectively call fundamentals.

You can never force people to believe in anything (e.g. a new price) if they do not want to.

Now if they do not believe in the new price you have stickiness.

I afraid we have to wait for the wave of foreclosures and other forced-sales to get our prices.