patrick.net

I never quite got this:

If a team prayed for god to let them win, and then they win, does that mean that god made the other team lose? And what about the faithful on the other team? I know, I know. Mysterious and all that.

My question is: if you put a housing bubble in a box with a bunch of stupid buyers and suicide loans, is the bubble alive or dead before you look inside the box?

Roll the dice.

If a team prayed for god to let them win, and then they win, does that mean that god made the other team lose? And what about the faithful on the other team? I know, I know. Mysterious and all that.

Do you at least agree that the world is a zero sum game? ;)

My question is: if you put a housing bubble in a box with a bunch of stupid buyers and suicide loans, is the bubble alive or dead before you look inside the box?

Ask Schrodinger.

SQT,

"She went on and on about how it was their faith in God that helped the house sell so fast. She also went on about how they prayed every night at dinner and God was responsible for their good fortune etc. etc."

It's kind of a logical jump. Religious people are already praying at dinner to God for giving them their daily bread and their family, so liberalizing home equity does seem like the next logical step.

"If a team prayed for god to let them win, and then they win, does that mean that god made the other team lose? And what about the faithful on the other team? I know, I know. Mysterious and all that."

Obviously, the faithful on the other team wasn't faithful enough. Or maybe they were really faithful but they killed a man in a former life...oops, wrong religion.

Or maybe they were really faithful but they killed a man in a former life…oops, wrong religion.

Huh?

Hmmm, lets see...

According to a previous poster, the complexity of the universe implies an intelligent creator. Could be logical.

But this "creator" would not have human survival instincts such as love, jealosy, hate, hunger, thirst and horniness.

So why do so many Jews, Muslims, Christians believe that the universe was abra-cadabara-ed into existance by a shy (never shows itself) but very vain (demands worship on faith alone) genie?

And why, with the size of the universe and the millions of species, would the creator worry about human affairs? This compares to a ant on the back forty punishing another ant in the colony for not following a ritual the first ant thinks the farmer wants.

And why, with the size of the universe and the millions of species, would the creator worry about human affairs?

I doubt there are other planets with intelligent lifeforms. The universe is not really that large. Or that the perception of a large universe is just symbolic.

Peter P,

Well, you can strangely discount astronomy as to the size of the universe, but you have to admit millions of species, both past an present. And not all of them edible by people.

My point is that there is so much in creation that has nothing to do with humanity. It is strange to think that creating humans as worship fodder was the end purpose of a creators design.

Well, you can strangely discount astronomy as to the size of the universe, but you have to admit millions of species, both past an present. And not all of them edible by people.

We do not eat some species only because they are cute or they do not taste good.

I have a love-hate relationship with astronomers. I do not know their motivations behind demoting pluto, the ruler of scorpio.

I still think that science (as a philosophy or religion) receives much attention nowadays only because it is somehow in fashion.

"And not all of them edible by people."

LOL!

That is all.

Thanks, Astrid! I was not sure people would catch that quipe on Peter P's culinary obsession.

I doubt there are other planets with intelligent lifeforms. The universe is not really that large. Or that the perception of a large universe is just symbolic.

Huh?

Our perception of red-shift is just self-delusion? The reference points we detect from the edge of spacetime, like gamma ray bursters, are just an artifact of our own symbolic grand narrative of perceived existence???

Who replaced Peter P with our favorite postmodernist from down under?

The universe is so big, with so many galaxies, so many stars, so many planets (which we are only now conclusively detecting), that things that seem to have limit approaching 0 probability -- like the Earth-Moon system -- inevitably have occurred hundreds of millions or billions of times throughout spacetime.

The question isn't whether we're the only intelligent, technological species to arise in the Universe. It is whether our portion of spacetime we inhabit now and in the future will ever intersect with one of those other species. In fact, other species may have already lived out billion-year reigns in this very galaxy, but during a time before our star was kicked out of its nebula nursery. All evidence of their existence now may be either hopelessly lost, scattered like needles in the haystack, or else destroyed as their system got sucked down the black hole(s) at the core of the Milky Way.

there are countless trillions of stars in the known universe, many presumably with planetary systems capable of supporting life, on the strength of statistical probability. it is wildly anthropocentric, or terracentric at least, to suppose that this is a one-off fluke, or that fundamental physical constants were 'intelligently designed' with imperfect man as the final outcome. primitive pre-scientific systems of explanation are still very much in vogue in the public mind, however...

Nah, DS is much likely to refer to Rousseau or Thereau.

I think if there is a God and God gave a damn, God would be interviewing other terrestrial species to replace us. We really suck at the job.

Overall, I'm not very concerned about aliens, either friendly or unfriendly. We've got plenty of Earth bound doomsday machines.

yes, the big question is whether it is possible to travel between solar systems in a reasonable timeframe, i.e. within a few generations, and within a viable biosphere with artificial gravity and screening from space radiation. altho once we've genetically engineered ourselves as immortals, that question may become moot...

astrid Says:

"...deus ex machina."
____

Yes, "god from the machine" is the translation, I believe.

Good band with Geir Jensen on keyboards before he joined Bel Canto, I think. Definitely before his latest band Biosphere.

Anyone ever hear the CD "Substrata" by Biosphere?

Definitely out there...very trippy. Considered the best "ambient" CD of the 20th century. Interesting Amazon CD reviews...

Just the kind of music to fit as a soundtrack to the violent dissolution of the housing bubble, in it's inevitable and ignominious collapse.

Here is a suggestion for a soundtrack to the collapse of the housing bubble.

Some Amazon.com reviews of "Substrata" by Biosphere:

Praised as one of the best ambient compilations of the 20th century, I was sure I would be disappointed having my expectations so high. Well, for once, I was wrong. Substrata deserves all the worship it's received and more. --Stephen Smith

This CD is absolutely beautiful. No other album has more of an effect over me. Every molecule of this album is forever engraved in my mind....
--Marcus Aurelius

Just please, take mine and everyone else's word for it.. This album is incredible. Probably the most relaxing and imaginative album I have heard in my life. Completely beautiful from START all the way to FINISH. I haven't heard anything quite like it. YOU MUST GET IT.
--Matt G. Navarro

Deep blue, echoing sounds, total isolation, beautiful simplicity. this is the best i can attempt to describe biosphere's "substrata". this is the most organic ambient music i have ever heard.
--Dave Goodreau

This might just be the best ambient CD I've ever heard, and I don't say this lightly. This is beautiful music informed by the composer's native Norway, land of snow, ice, and nighttime that lasts four months. Eerie, quiet, serene, and dreamy. Buy this CD.
--A music fan

Probably own most notable ambient releases ever...everything from Satie to Aphex Twin...and I have to say that this CD takes the crown.
The music God listens to while relaxing.
--brynjolfur

Lots of people are calling this the greatest ambient album ever made. Put me in league with lots of people. This album creates a pensive, brooding atmosphere that lends itself nicely to deep contemplation. The first four tracks alone are worth the price of the album. Put it on in a pitch black room with a good set of headphones, and prepare to transcend . . .
--I am the "mindfunker

This CD is a great soundtrack & aural backdrop for the violent collapse of the housing bubble, since it's just as trippy and surreal as the real estate market. Get it and enjoy the show, without the need for psychadelic drugs.
--Michael Holliday

astrid Says:

> “She went on and on about how it was their faith
> in God that helped the house sell so fast.

Everyone knows that since God is like a busy CEO he does not have time to help with individual real estate transactions so you have to pray to St. Joseph (after you bury the statue).

http://tinyurl.com/6d9qd

The housing bubble and God somehow makes me think of "Mercedes Benz" by Janis Joplin.

SFWoman Says:
Perhaps we will meet intelligent life who are fleeing an impossibly large real estate bubble in another galaxy.

yes, like the energy wave of a rapidly expanding supernova which goes on to collapse into a real estate black hole...

Randy H Says:
Who replaced Peter P with our favorite postmodernist from down under?

hey, i was a science nerd for many years, i'll have you know... won the HS graduation physics prize and studied astronomy under physics at uni...

unless you're talking about ajh, that must be it ;)

i've just transcended mere logical positivism lately, that's all... and there was no money in astrophysics, i switched to mortgage broking...

maybe the soundtrack should be pink floyd's 'money', or the little known led zeppelin number 'when the housing bubble bursts (you got to lose)'

FAB,

that is a very good discussion since I am interested in swapping out of my current "sorta prime" area into a significant acreage which may have growth potential to be the next prime after the gigantic blowup.

Here is my wife's observation after being here all her life. The rural areas at the border of the center on the west side has a much better chance of becoming prime gradually than rejuvenated subprime. A perfect example is Los Altos, which was just a farming area with a railway scam that turned into a prime spot because of its proximity to Palo Alto, and we know why Palo Alto became prime. East Palo Alto, however, never became desirable despite the ups and downs through the years. Another example is San Jose' Almaden area, it was again a rural town with little significance down south before the sprawl went down to San Jose. It became sorta prime, which East San Jose remains what it used to be throughout the years.

In the peninsula, Hillsborough and Burlingame sound like a suburbs that ascended real fast for some reason that I cannot understand. I've been here since early 90s and Burlingame never came across as a prime neighborhood as it is today. Could it be the school districts? Or the Burlingame downtown that was completed in the 90s? I'd say San Mateo has pretty much remained the same throughout the last 15 years, a stepping stone for those who want to move into Menlo Park, or Burlingame. So could downtown and school district have a big play in upgrading a neighborhood from subprime to prime?

I also would like to hear some examples of the Bay Area on which area upgraded and downgraded, for what reasons.

I read about a neighborhood before near Detroit, it was the poster child of a prime neighborhood that became a slum. Sorry that I forget the name. It is an area full of mansions that are left to rot, the decline was said to begin in the Great Depression. I read somewhere last year that even this neighborhood was being rejuvenated.

As long as the Bay Area keeps its industries intact, I don't think we are going to repeat Detroit's story.

The housing bubble and God somehow makes me think of “Mercedes Benz” by Janis Joplin.

This song is probably sung like a hymn at every "prosperity gospel" service. :-)

There are plenty of areas in cities like Cleveland where mansions were abandoned after WWII, as white flight drove people out of the remaining urban gentry neighborhoods. In many cases the rich folks got the city to buy out the land, and projects were plopped where splendid homes once stood.

I don't know of any examples not tied to major industrial manufacturing cities, or on the West coast. But certainly the rust-belt is rife with examples of dying "prime" neighborhoods.

And fwiw, Sedgwick in Chicago was quite prime before the projects were erected. The fact there was crime there in 1931 makes it no different than anywhere else in Chicago. 1931. Yea. Something was going on in Chicago in 1931. I think they made a couple movies about it or something.

The area is very prime now.

I think there are parts of the Gold Coast in Chicago that have also cycled since WWII.

Uh I'm anything but an expert on theology but it seems to me that the Big Fella might take serious exception to the HB?

HE wants you to have a gas guzzling SUV!

HE created your wife "in his image" but likes the "up-grades" (hubba hubba) you've been able to afford through "equity extraction"!

HE is pleased with the 10 bucks you dropped in the collection basket (after your 100K Housing ATM Withdrawal!)

HE is content that you have not wasted your time coaching Little League and have instead opted to devote your weekends to installing fake hardwood flooring!

HE is pleased that the pursuit of all things material has consumed your life so completely there is no way HE would even recognize you if you DID show up at the Pearly Gates!

Why did God allow the housing bubble to exist?

What? Nobody here read the book of Job? God is testing your faith in Market Forces. Should you waver, you will fall unto damnation.

I'll take being a renter over having my family killed and boils visited upon my face any day. The Housing Bubble is definitely from the New Testement God, not the Old Testement God.

Of course, if you bought in 2005, God might soon be asking for your firstborn on the altar...

DinOR Says:

HE created your wife “in his image” but likes the “up-grades” (hubba hubba) you’ve been able to afford through “equity extraction”!

Equity EXtraction = silicone INsertion

Is Palo Alto prime? How come the downtown area has so much rift-raft?

Peter P Says:

Is Palo Alto prime? How come the downtown area has so much rift-raft (sic)?

Downtown PA has had riff raff as long as I can remember (about 17 years). Probably related to the proximity to a university and the availability of homeless services (in particular, that church across from Prolific Oven has some kind of meal plan). I personally don't mind them, as long as the panhandling is not aggressive. Remember when that plaza next to High St. was still Burger King? It was almost like Telegraph Ave. "lite." Plus, when you bike under the train tracks, that tunnel had a perma-urine aroma, now gone.

SJ may not be prime in appearance, but it's certainly gotten prime in asking price.

Michael Holliday,

Thanks for the rec. That album has been in my Amazon wish list for years, but I never got around to purchasing it. Though for the housing collapse, I’d recommend some Mogwai and Explosions in the Sky.

FAB,

“After the war Berkley was tough by the east shore freeway and prime in Claremont, nothing has changed. Dublin was a sleepy cow town (not a yuppie village with chain stores and cul de sacks) and I can’t think of any San Jose areas that have changed much…”

Your definition of prime is quite restrictive. The lesser parts of Berkley, all of Dublin and SJ may not have changed much physically, but their asking prices have really jumped up. Nowadays, if you buy there you may still be neighbors to semi-literate manual laborers who bought 20 years ago, but you better come with two professional level salaries to pay for it. In time, if the gentrification trend continues, I think more and more professionals would move in and fewer day laborers would remain. The physical transformation of neighborhoods will take a bit longer than one cycle of RE price run up.

Detroit is pretty much the prime candidate for prime to less prime. CEO/highly paid executive homes there are losing value because the whole Detroit area is hollowing out. I’m not too familiar with the Midwest outside of Detroit, but I know that much of Manhattan cycled in and out of prime: it used to be that the Upper East Side was the only truly prime residential area in NYC, but now much of lower and midtown Manhattan has caught up to the Upper East Side in price.

I can’t take credit for the power of prayer antecdote. That goes to SQT. But you’re absolutely right, the Catholics have a much more extensive prayer management system than the Protestants.

ajh and SFWoman,

I know United has an EconomyPlus section that offers a bit more space at the front of the cabin. I believe it’s around $50 per trip. They also have an EconomyPlus upgrade for free program if you fly enough miles with them each year.

I think the point of business and first class pricing wasn’t about space or service offered but to price segregate the riff raffs from the busy executives. A major selling point of business class was (I say was because mileage upgrades altered the equation) so you won’t sit next to crying kids or chubby vacationers or the insane old lady showing you pictures of her 37 cats.

Owning vs. Renting

I pay just under $3K a month to rent my place in Presidio Heights.

I could buy a condo similar to my place in the area (2 br 1 ba with a deep garage where I can park my car & SUV) for about $1.25mm.

Total cost to rent is $36K a year

Renting the a million $ to “buy” a place would cost $76K (6.5% 30 yr am).
Property Tax $15K a year
Loss of a return on $250K in Cash down payment $35K a year (based on my average annual return on hedge fund cash since 1999).
Typical HOA dues for a Presidio Heights condo that include Insurance $6K a year
Maintenance and Repairs $1K a year.

Total cost to buy is $133K a year (just under $100K more than renting) assuming that values do not go down (if we have even a 5% drop in values over the next few years the total cost to “buy” will increase by ~$60K to just more than $150K more than the cost to rent).

“astrid ‘pontificates;’”

Yes, but do I get a pope-mobile?