patrick.net

I just had to go to the ER this weekend because I stepped on a rusty screw, luckily I had a good nurse.

Hope you are feeling better now.

This should be added to the Peter P “Book of Hours and/or Days.”

I cannot take credit. This came from Ben Jone's blog a while ago:, although it was about cars.

newsfreak Says:

As an uninsured person, I turned down the X-ray and surgery, I took the least invasive approach–a tetanus shot and antibiotics. I hope it was the right move, but I have already waited too long and gone too soon in the past, and paid out of pocket enough times to just want a simple solution, if there is such a thing in modern medicine.

The general ankle injury teaching is basically, if you can bear weight on it without difficulty, it is not likely fractured, and therefore X-ray is not needed.

*Not medical advice*

They x-rayed my daughter's foot after she stepped on something in the park and found a chip/shard of glass or plastic still embedded - the x-ray showed it up.

Claire Says:

They x-rayed my daughter’s foot after she stepped on something in the park and found a chip/shard of glass or plastic still embedded - the x-ray showed it up.

newsfreak, maybe you can find a magnet at home and put it next to your ankle. If it sticks, there's something in there that shouldn't be.

Seriously, if you're still limping after several days, it might be worth the x-ray.

*not medical advice*

newsfreak Says:

They said usually a little tiny piece of rubber gets in there from the sole of the shoe. So I will not know until the antibiotics wear off.

Oh - didn't realize you were wearing shoes at the time.

Robert C,

Well.......agreed. When I went through Avionics School in the service we were working on "mock-ups" of 1950's vacuum tube technology! Then we spent about 6 months discussing transistors (welcome to 1970) and semi's were only in the last few instructional blocks that preceeded our intro to Inertial Navigation Sys.

Some things though really don't need that much updating. I mean how many ways can you make a pitot tube? A stall warning indicator? A drag chute? I was always interested in technology that made the launch and recovery of aircraft less labor intensive (but it never seemed to be a priority with the Navy). The guy that invented the "air bleed door" which eliminated the necessity of starting EACH ENGINE independently wasn't all bad. Dragging a 6" dia. reinforced air cart hose w/ a 40 lb. coupling in 115 degree heat was never one of my favorite things.

I've noticed a couple of things. The Fed is meeting this Wednesday, and the MSM are barely peeping about it. Could it be we're at the ho-hum, the Fed will pause again phase? Second, DQ usually has the previous month's numbers out by now. Why the delay? Perhaps more time is needed to fudge-er-crunch the numbers?

newsfreak,

I was out working on my boat one time and stepped on a rusty nail so long I really was surprised it didn't come out the top of my foot! I hadn't gotten a shot for at least ten years so I had to use my left foot for the brake AND the gas to get down to the clinic. Ouch!

skibum,

What's funny is that homebuilder confidence should have been at today's level in late 2004! Did anyone else read the article regarding Washington Mutual and their loan portfolio? I glossed over it and saw it mentioned on a number of financial sites. Is there more to this than meets the eye?

Robert C,

I was attached to NAS Cubi Point in the Philippines when we saw our first F-18 off the "Connie". He had come down so far "off center" the tail hook was hopelessly bent and they "bingo'd" him to our airfield. It was a normal landing and after we parked the A/C I reminded Lt. Welch that he just made Naval Aviation history! He said he was just glad to be within range of a bingo field and not have to take the barricade!

"would have depressed 2 years of unimaginable profitablity"

Oh agreed. I think at that point they were "riding the tiger" anyway! Perhaps when this is quite through we'll finally learn what was said behind closed doors in builder's boardrooms. (There had to at least have been some level of disbelief?). Concern? Nah.

DinOR Says:

What’s funny is that homebuilder confidence should have been at today’s level in late 2004! Did anyone else read the article regarding Washington Mutual and their loan portfolio? I glossed over it and saw it mentioned on a number of financial sites. Is there more to this than meets the eye?

RC basically said what I was going to say re: HB confidence. They take what they're given - who would expect them to do otherwise? I saw that article. At this point, with the fizzle-out of the FNM/FRE "scandal", I've become numb to any news of possible trouble in the loan/mtg/MBS industry.

Actually the F-18 would have entered the inventory toward the end of my "naval career". I remember the A-4 well. We had VC-5 (adversary squadron) and they flew the A-4(M) as well as the two seat trainer. They did a lot of banner tows and I'm told were taught to replicate the MIG in combat tactics.

The A-4's were a snap to fuel, LOX and launch! The F-4 Phantom (especially the Air Force version) were such a pain to launch that pilots would get impatient to taxi! If I could have flown the Phantom I guess I would have been impatient too!

Robert C,

I was assigned to RWS (Runway Support) the arresting gear and also did line maint. Are you serious about having designed the gimbal? I remember the "fixed" fuel probe was only about 2 feet from all those expensive electronics though!

skibum,

Me too. If we can have "bubble fatigue" why not "MBS going down the tube fatigue"? Maybe that's why I just breezed through the article. 2 years ago I would have read it twice. Now?

When they demolish buildings with dynamite I'm sure some of it doesn't go off. But you know....... I'll take their word on it!

SQT,

I believe that was the "RF-4B" and it was a "recon" bird. They had a camera and sensors in the nose that made it look like a shark. Unlike John McCain's A/C the A-4, the F-4 could be pretty well "ventilated" and still bring the crew back. Leaking, limping and losing altitude, but back.

Robert C,

You know that is so interesting b/c the off center arrestment is a real nightmare for everyone involved. The Aircraft Handler is sweating bullets that some "bolter" is going to go sideways through the aft slash and even if they take the wire I believe if it exceeds X tolerance the greenshirts have to come out and replace it. Even if that was the cables only "hit". That and when you drag an A/C sideways it has a tendency to scuff the rubber right off of the tires. So even if nobody gets hurt it's still a mess.

We actually had a few nights were A-7's (the Corsair) would be low fuel and bingo to Cubi and we'd have to take one in Gear #4 and then his buddy would go right over us (hook down) and take Gear #3! Talk about having your heart in your throat. I swear if the canopy had been up the tail hook would've taken it off. (At least it seemed that way!)

Sorry about your friend.

"The RF-4 was supposed to be a stop gap"

You know Robert, those crews were very different than the regular fighter jocks. When fighter guys would park the bird all they wanted to know was where the best go-go dancers were etc. The recon spooks couldn't have been more different. We'd give 'em a ride up to the Officer's Quarters and it was usually a quite ride. Often they didn't even check in with Ops. Dept. After they left there wasn't much of a record they'd been there at all.

SQT,

Oh I gotcha ya! I've always regretted not having taken any pictures of any of my duty stations. Our rainy season shenanigans would have made for some cool pictures. There were these two kuh-razy guys that used to take our little Mistubishi pick ups and "launch" them off of these 4' high ramps! We called them the "Dukes of Cubi"!

SFWoman,

I didn't think Block Island was big enough to even have an airfield. I'm told it was the site of much skullduggery back in the day.

newsfreak,

When this is over,
I would like to know why the economy needed this bubble?

I would like to sign up for the ECON class on this bubble.

I submit to you that the answer is "undefined".

The economy is an emergent system, not a deterministic one. It abides by the same abstract pressures as biological evolution. It adapts, specializes, suffers extinctions, and spawns descendants. Also, like biological evolution, it is undirected. There is no "goal", other than continued existence. No particular state is more or less desirable than any other from the abstract perspective, although it is of grave concern to the participants at any given point in time.

As such, we endeavor to intervene in the economy to direct its outcomes where we want them to go, the same as we do in our own biological environment. Such intervention doesn't always work or have the anticipated results.

It's not coincidental that the best economic computational models are based on evolutionary algorithms, themselves borrowed from biological processes.

When I found out that blocks of 20-30 units were being being sold in my Miami Beach condo building, I knew it was time to get out.

If God doesn't even accurately know where and how fast an electron and a photon would go after a collision. How can s/he know anything about a real estate bubble ?

Roll a dice. Your answer is as good as God's.

The number of listings in San Jose/Santa Clara County are up to a new high, according to this:

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2006/09/tracking-san-josesanta-clara-county.html

Hey, can someone remove this dude Nussbaum's spam from the thread?

Danielle Steele Says:

> No, no. Read my book! IT will make you rich!

Glad to have Danielle on the BLOG...

How about hosting the next BLOG party at the Spreckels' mansion?

astrid Says:

Michael Holliday,

Thanks for the rec. That album has been in my Amazon wish list for years, but I never got around to purchasing it. Though for the housing collapse, I’d recommend some Mogwai and Explosions in the Sky.
_____

Sounds good, bro!

You probably remember operational A-4s my secret love and probably your secret demoness with the gimbal nose gear. The designer explained why so if you are interested.

Dude, you fell out of the geek tree and hit every branch on the way down ;)

newsfreak,

I'm sorry to hear about your injury. I hope everything will heal soon and be as good as new. I hope you'll soon find a great job that respects you and provides great health insurance.

Surfer-X,

This site doesn't discriminate between geeks and tanned surf gods. It only discriminate between stupid home buyers and people with brains.

FAB,

What was Hillsborough like when you were growing up? Was it always prime?

From what you wrote, I sensed that Baywood/Highlands were nicer areas than they are today, relatively speaking of course, because I know of a couple of friends who cashed out of their homes in Baywood to move to Burlingame. I was rather surprised that they would move a few blocks but according to them Burlingame is decisively nicer than Baywood San Mateo, so either Burlingame shot up real fast, or part of San Mateo slowed down quite a bit.

Regarding prime turning non-prime, I think the chance is much higher on the East Bay, Mission SJ for example. From SF down south, the west side is simply geographically more appealing, and given the way our geography is laid out, any current prime spot on the west is quite protected, unless something drastic happens to the Bay Area as a whole. Mission district is an one-trick pony, school scores, so for whatever reason if that factor goes away, there is really not much left to be desired in that location. Or, places like Danville and Alamo, supposedly prime as of today, but if global warming is here to stay, and gas price keeps creeping up, I am not sure how prime these places are going to be going forward.

Did Half Moon Bay become less prime over the years?

About those Very Light Jets,

Oh, wouldn't that be grand! But lets get real. If it was about economics, the Czechs or Romanians would have been selling inexpensive upgraded versions of old commie trainers to us years ago.

The USA is crawling with jet pilots. Many would be in a position to coop on a under $1 million fun craft. Lots of colleges could use them for flight courses. But they ain't gonna stay cheap. The Eclipse was supposed to be delivered for under $800,000, the estimated price now is over $1.2 million.

Now factor in LegalMan. Eclipse will be sued out of existence the first time some incompetent crashes one. Jurys and the public do not give a damn about general aviation, and won't sweat handing out awards that ruin it.

Before LegalMan, during the 60's and early 70's, a new entry level Cessna and a Corvette were the same price. Used planes could be affordable for working men. Lots to choose from, too - Piper, Cessna, Beech, Grumman, Bellanca, Navion. An entry level Cessna is now $180,000. In the early days after the lawsuits, $20,000 of the C-152's $35,000 price was to cover apportioned legal costs.

LegalMan will kill the everyman jet just as fast as he killed the everyman weekender pilot.

Did someone say they had a relative who took video from an F-4 over the Ho Chi Min Trail with a handheld video camera?

God, you must be young. I assume you mean 8mm movie film. Video cameras did not come out until late 70's, and even then the were very bulky two piece affairs. The camera was the size of a shoebox and the recorder was like a suitcase.

I took Hi-8 films flying over Iraq in the 90's. I wanted to get shots of the fires where out allies the Turks had bombed our allies the Kurds.

Muggy,

Rising rents do not in any way invalidate the legitimacy of the current housing correction. Historical corrections in the Bay Area, according to various data I have linked here and there on my website, have pretty much always occurred during either flat or rising rental markets. None occurred during declining rental markets as a median. Now I'm sure someone here will post an anecdote about someones rent that went down in 1993. But the data is the data.

The negatives to a two-sided convergence, if you're a fence-sitter, are primarily wrapped up in the way it erodes the purchasing power of your savings towards a purchase. Simply because your benefit is eroded by inflation, and taxed away by landlords to a degree. If rents stayed flat or decreased, then every dollar you have would go towards buying a home at some point in the future.

The positives of the two-sided convergence outweigh the negatives, in my opinion. (1) the correction will be faster. (2) therefore you will be able to/will be forced to buy a home faster. (3) the local economy won't suffer as much.

But, don't have any illusions. This bubble is so big that most of the movement will be on the house-price side, not the rent side. Even if rents went up by 50%, house prices would still need to fall substantially to revert to sustainable trend. And rents won't go up 50%. Maybe 15%-20%, in the worst case.

Some general data for the Bay Area (San Francisco/San Jose MSA):

Real-price declines (from 1975 to present):
1980-1982
1984
1990-1996

Median monthly rents (rounded to $50):
1980: $550 **
1981: $700 **
1982: $750 **
1984: $800
1990: $1200
1991: $1250
1992: $1300
1993: $1300
1994: $1350
1995: $1450
1996: $1500

The periods ** are the biggest real-price drop in house prices, and the largest % increase in real-price rents. Note this period was a substantially shorter correction than the 1990s correction when rents were stagnant until the end of the correction.

It’s not coincidental that the best economic computational models are based on evolutionary algorithms, themselves borrowed from biological processes.

wot, greed and fear?

Of course, the vast majority of RN’s are fabulous (on an individual basis), but there is a bit too much labor movement, union-y stuff in that profession, imo.

well, not too many nurses are running a small jet and a fun plane, on the other hand. how else are you going to put a floor under your wages (other than becoming a doctor)?

NPs are almost non-existent here, unfortunately, it's still in the dark ages to do with entrenched power of doctors. altho the cost of doctors' labour is lower than the US, which may be one of the drivers for NPs...

on the other hand, you would get free treatment for the screw damage at outpatients or a medical practice as a matter of course, regardless of employment or health insurance cover -- you need to lobby your lefty-liberal puke congressmen to bring in socialized medicine... oh, already been tried... those shape-shifting reptile repubs always want to block it for some reason...

jeffolie Says:
If G-d did not allow the housing bubble to happen, the economy would have gone straight to HELL.

i think it was just limping along even WITH the low interest rates, wasn't it?

In 2001 Greenspan knew the dot com bust was going to bring down the economy hard. When the scope of the decline became clear, he lowered rates to 1% and expanded money supply, bringing on the housing bubble. He fueled it by encouraging ARMs.

this is the problem with just having one regulatory lever to try to do everything... keeping with the flying theme, it's like fitting a plane with just a throttle and expecting it to do wing trimming as well...

did greenspan actively encourage ARMs? if so, why? (not option ARMs or negAMs i presume)

Median monthly rents (rounded to $50):
1980: $550 **
1981: $700 **
1982: $750 **
1984: $800
1990: $1200
1991: $1250
1992: $1300
1993: $1300
1994: $1350
1995: $1450
1996: $1500

now can you adjust those figures for CPI? :P

say, 2-3% a year? (compounding) if rents go up 15-20% a year, i fear everything else will as well -- goods and services = inflationary spiral...

extreme inflationary spirals don't hurt housing specuvestors, i spose, because it devalues their original mortgage amount and lets them charge more rent -- at last the dream vill hav kum tru... we will have created a brazil-like economy just to keep the poor little muppets happy...

New thread: From Hi-Fi to Wi-Fi to Re-Fi