patrick.net

SFWoman,

Can someone refresh my memory here? Wasn't Northern Trust Co. (up until very recently pooh-poohing the notion of a bubble, let alone a national bubble?). I can't recall if it was Paul Kasriel's comments or one of the other analysts but if memory serves correct this is a complete 180.

note the british first rung housing website looks like some sort of treatment centre for depressives in colour scheme and graphics -- do they know something we don't?

"another one of those unlucky small plane accidents"

I realize this is a tad morbid but there's a reason I've elected not to defy the laws of God anymore than is absolutely necessary:

www.celebratetoday.com/airceleb.html

SFWoman,

I could be completely wrong but it seems all throughout the bubble's ascent into nose bleed levels every article and research report N.T put out was the typical cheerleading with of course all of the typical caveats and qualifiers.

"As long as int. rates/unemployment remain low we see no end in sight" type blather. (I hate to keep being a stickler about this but right is right damn it!)

Oh and from your Philly Inq. article:

"Who'd have thought you'd have a bubble in Toledo!"

Randy H Says:

> Such lovely sentiment, picking on a 59 year old woman.
> She must be terrible, being both an accomplished pop
> author and having caused her ex to turn gay.

There are a lot of things that are not PC that you can never say in public including “real estate might down in value” “some realtors don’t follow the code of ethics” “everyone is equal” and “women want to work in business just as much as men”…

Here on the Blog we can talk about real life like how real estate values are falling in front of our eyes, how most Realtors would screw their parents to make a commission, how the kid who’s Dad was a Bonesmen with Bush probably has a better shot at the CEO job than the kid from the projects and most women really just want to stay home with the kids…

In addition to being an accomplished pop author Danielle was a runner up to Kathy Hilton in the America’s worst mom competition. Many thought that Danielle would win since none of Kathy’s kids have killed themselves yet, but even the last minute push by Danielle getting her teenage daughters in to Vanity Fair dressed as hookers was not enough to edge out Kathy for the win since her daughters basically are hookers…

SQT,

Oh agreed! (That's why I drive as little as possible as well). I'm especially taking Peter P's advice on avoiding two lane roads). Actually I think that same site has a link to celebs that died in car crashes as well.

What struck me is I "speed scrolled" through the list was how many of the accidents occured while filming movies or attending a charity event or collided with someone they knew. Small world isn't it? Ted Williams was shot down over Korea. I'm guessing Ted felt his being there was important. *astrid's reference to H. John Heinz the 3rd. was his own helicopter's rotor blades hitting his own plane on a playground where additionally two children were killed.

The danger comes when people "fall in love" with aviation and would rather fly than drive any day! Most of these people were "off the clock". When you do it for a living it's totally different. All you're thinking is, whatever happens today. I'm going home to my wife and kids. Most guys that work on airplanes aren't "living the life".

I think it's the same as the myth that cowboys "loved" their horses. (Truth is if they loved them at all, it was simply b/c it beat walking).

FAB,

Kind of inclined to agree. My eldest sister (now deceased GRHS) was a draftsman in the 70's. (This is before they had draftspersons/people). She endured more sexism and favoritism than you can shake a stick at. There was no HR Policy back in the day and additionally she was NEVER invited to any of the "guy thing" functions. (And it was always a "guy thing").

I'd like to think though that some advancements have taken place between then and now and hope my daughters will find the work world a better place.

This is quite a good article summarising mortage-backed securities:

What mortgage-backed securities mean for the US housing market - Money Week

well put, mike. but then i'm a 5th columnist for the commies, what would i know... i might also suggest that the shape-shifting reptiles putting forward people like ronald reagan and dan quayle is an insult to the american people -- but the military-industrial complex took over ages ago...

Hysterical post on Portland's C/L!

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/rfs/209751068.html

(It's in Flipperwood Estates)

Does anyone have an update on Ben's blog? I still can't get to it today! I need my fix!

SQT,

That's a shame. Dino Martin's plane was clocked at 560 MPH while hitting solid granite in I believe the San Bernadino Mountains? In a way this kind of illustrates my point. Insurance companies are now asking for higher premiums from clients that engage in "high risk" activites. I'm against Ins. companies using "red line" techniques and now even credit scores to gouge people but folks that do white water rafting after their base jumping excursion should pay more. IMHO.

"Flipperwood Estates" was a classic post! The home described is typical of that neighborhood so it made it just credible enough to not get pulled post haste. "I can come down a little in price, but not too much b/c of my 70% profit margin"! Classic.

skibum,

According to Claire's post yesterday Ben said it should be up today. I'm relieved that it's just a technical glitch and not some hijacking or sell-out. (I wasn't really concerned about the later b/c Ben is one of those "stand up" guys). He'll get it together!

DQ has the August SoCal numbers out:

http://dqnews.com/RRSCA0906.shtm

Home sales in Southern California continued at their slowest pace in nine years as price levels appeared to be nearing a plateau, a real estate information service reported.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $489,000 last month. That was down 0.6 percent from July's $492,000, and up 2.7 percent from $476,000 in August last year. Last month's increase was the smallest since July 1999, when the $193,000 median also rose 2.7 percent from $188,000 a year earlier.

The positive gains appear to be held up by sales in Riverside, San Bernadino, and LA counties. SD is negative, while Ventura and Orange are barely (+) YoY.

So, do you think this guy is biased, or what:

"There's an awful lot of moaning going on right now. Potential buyers and sellers need to be careful what they believe and exercise common sense in their decision making. The market is certainly off from its frenzy, but we have to remember that it takes much more downward pressure to push prices down than upward pressure to push them up. Prices have doubled the last four-and-a-half years. So does the market keep all of that gain, or only ninety percent?," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.

DinOR,

re: Flipperwood Estates, I enjoyed:

"But if you're sick of renting below cost of ownership keep reading"

That has GOT to be a joke! WTF? Frickin' hilarious.

The older I get, the more I realize that you should stop listening to someone right about the time you hear them say "the older I get, the more I realize...".

I apologize to FAB. He clearly knows all, and can help the rest of us unwashed Prols better understand real life. Who can blame him for getting frustrated when asked to justify or defend himself.

"So does the market keep all of that gain, or only ninety percent?"

Oh, so now we're throwing down the gauntlet are we!

By saying "only ninety percent" it's as if Mr. Prentice believes he can personally apply a tourniquet to stop the hemorrhaging at a 10% downside. Well this is plain ridiculous b/c many areas (yes in CA) are already experiencing reductions of this magnitude. Does this a$$clown have any credibility left?

skibum,

"sick of renting below cost of ownership"

Yeah, the guy does have a certain gift! Actually I think the disparity is as profound in OR as it is any place else. My youngest was thinking about attending the Art Inst. of Portland and it's amazing to me that with entire columns in the paper w/studio apts. at $275 to $350 a month anyone would "invest" in a loft ABOVE Manhattan prices! Then again I'm just some guy from the "south side" so what would I know?

Dear Mr. Prentice,

If prices have doubled in the last 4 1/2 years as your data indicates is the question, should the market retain 90% of that, OR is the question IS 1.85% a MONTH "appreciation" sustainable!

Assuming that a doubling in one's "investment" every 54 months is standard, customary and reasonable the MEDIAN price by June 2010 should be what? 1.2 mil? O.K. That's all I needed to know.

DinOR,
Mr. Prentice's quote should be added to the list of "idiotic predictions by RE industry shills", ala Gary Watts and David Lereah.

skibum,

Oh absolutely! And thank you for bringing that little "nugget of knowledge" to my attention! I'm working on a proper "handle" for Mr. Prentice but simply referring to him as "MP" may create confusion as it is not fitting a man of his "stature".

Hell, I'm open.

The dead give away as Mr. Randal H. esq. suggests is in the language.

Most BS statements start with 90%!

"This guy strikes out 90% of the time"

(Well, anyone that strikes out that much wouldn't even cut in the minors).

Another way to decimate your credibility is to preface your statement with "always" or "never"!

Randy,

Your wife might be the exception. My short short short academic and working experiences agrees with SQT. I find men to be much better mentors than women, they just tend to have a better grasp of the big picture. I get this a lot with my professors, the women professors never share their life experiences and have cut through the BS moments. And men do seem to enjoy working a lot more than women. The job usually seems more like a chore to women I've worked with and they can't wait til the end of the day. Meanwhile, the (best of) of the men get really into the job.

I suppose it could be me, I'm hanging out with the wrong sort of people.

http://www.dqnews.com/RRBay0906.shtm

DQ has the latest on Nor Cal.

The money quote from that British article SF Woman posted earlier:

"And meanwhile, it's probably too late for the housing market. US median house price may fall next year for the first time since the Great Depression, Gabriel Stein of Lombard Street Research tells Bloomberg. Last year, the US savings ratio went negative on an annual basis, also for the first time since the Great Depression.

We imagine that we will be seeing a lot more problems that haven't happened since the Great Depression in the coming months."

It really is "different this time". This housing bubble is "special".

lunarpark Says:

DQ has the latest on Nor Cal.

How about:
"The median price paid for a Bay Area home was $620,000 last month. That was down 1.1 percent from $627,000 in July, and up 0.2 percent from $619,000 for August a year ago. Last month's year-over- year increase was the lowest since March 2002 when the $381,000 median fell 1.3 percent. "

YoY increase of 0.2%!! What'you talkin' bout Willis?!??!! I also like how the median price of $381K merely 4 years ago is completely glossed-over.

Alameda, Marin, San Mateo counties are negative YoY in price, most are basically flat. The only significantly (+) numbers (barely) are Napa and Solano. Solano barely counts as the BA, in my book, anyway. We're likely to see all BA, perhaps all CA negative prices YoY within the next month or two.

SFWoman Says:

The women were oddly competitive in a way the men weren’t, they seemed threatened by younger women. Not all of them, but several. And if you were better looking than they were, watch out.

Claws out, "MEOW!"

tannenbaum Says:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2006/20060920/default.htm

Yawn. Not really much of a shocker, eh? The current toolbuckets at the Fed will be remembered by history as the fools who let inflation out of the bag. Can we say, "Election time?"

You gotta love Jeffery Lacker, though. Twice in a row dissenting and voting for a rate increase.

"Indicators of market distress are still largely absent"

Thus begins another DQ (keep the Debacle Quiet) (TM) closing paragraph.

Uh..... I don't want to tell you guys how to run your business but did you bother to read the chart you provided below the closing standard "ostrich" paragraph?

Are BA rents really going through the roof as indicated at patrick.net? Those charts, esp, 2 bedrooms, seem a little too unbelievable.

SQT,

You should cut Skibum a break on that comment. I think the meow was intended for women threatened better looking women and certainly not for SFWoman.

I suppose in the mainstream work place I must have been something of an anomaly. Very good at mentoring and a lot of younger people I still run into remark they never had that much fun at work (and haven't since!)

Yet...... gifted in the Art of Gossip! (My buddy who we'll call "Frankie") was in AA so he had "the goods" on everybody. Even knew about the ex-stripper on the Apprentice and her "best lap dancing customer" before he ran out of $'s and resorted to...... Anyway, it is possible to be a work/life mentor but if you don't have the "dope", why would I listen to some old guy?

My objective was alway to make the next 8, 10, 12 hours pass as painlessly as possible! But you have to remember to "give" too! My former co-workers still love to tell the story about when I walked down to the local tavern at closing time in my bathrobe and slippers DEMANDING to be served!

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/15565577.htm

Mercury News on the DQ numbers.

"We’re likely to see all BA, perhaps all CA negative prices YoY within the next month or two."

I agree that this seems possible now.

John M,

I'm not ready to throw in the towel just yet! (But the Twins season is basically over and the only real schedule they face is the Sox!) On the other hand it is make it or break it time for the southside!

RANDOMGUY! Friends don't let friends buy condos! (Or houses, at this point anyway). I thank you and Surfer X thanks you!

Hey SQT,
astrid is correct - I was referring to the catty scientists that SFWoman referred to. SFWoman has never to me seemed catty or petty in any way. Moreover, I think men are in fact dissed ALL the time about this kind of crap. Women are called catty or bitches, men are assholes and jerks. I really don't think this sentiment is biased one way or another.

*DinOR,

I gossip can be a force for good or evil. It really depends on the spirit of the comment and the type of work place. Your gossip seems to be good humored and informational, rather than focus on making specific people look bad. Gossip is fine as long as it doesn't hurt people or distract people at work. Plus, I bet your younger coworkers all found that story a hoot.

* because I'm really sure DinOR is not your real name either

lunarpark,

WHOA! Wait a sec here. Check out the numbers from the Merc:

"The median price of existing single-family houses sold in the nine-county region in August was $664,000...2 percent higher than a year earlier, but down 1.5 percent from July 2006.

In Santa Clara County, the median price of houses sold last month was $725,000. That's down from $750,000 in July, but 1.6 percent higher than the August 2005 median price of $713,500."

And the DQNews actual press release:

BA median price: $620K
BA YoY change in price: +0.2%

Santa Clara median price: $658K
Santa Clara YoY change in price: +0.6%

The Merc is off (favoring a less significant slowdown, of course) on all of these numbers. What gives????

Oh, and SFWoman, if you did indeed take my "claws out" comment as directed at you, rather than the people you referenced, my apologies - it was directed at the folks in your story.

The hag was a looksist!

lol. Probably not a looksist, but just extremely insecure, is my guess.