patrick.net

"Bush is Skull and Bones all the way."

Yeah, Dubya is hard to write off. But the Yale Corporation set up an it's somebody else's problem field set up Dubya and hope we won't notice.

Connecticut and Maine have disowned Dubya. And I’m sure Yale and HBS would like to do likewise. So Texas is all Bush fils has left.

I doubt it re: Yale and HBS. Universities are whores. If some alum gives them added name recognition, not to mention money, they're happy to embrace him/her in the alumni family. Hell, if bin Laden's family were to give a ton of money to a place like Harvard, they'd gladly take it! Oh, wait, that actually happened, didn't it?

What is going to happen to local goverment/cities that rely on revenue from property taxes - if house prices crash, then their revenue will crash too, and I bet they never factored in the chance that this income stream would diminish.

You bet correctly. I can't recall if you're from CA or not, but in case you're following local politics here, you already know that the state legislature is about as "restrained" in its spending as a drunken fraternity is in poon-hunting during spring break (sorry for the crude metaphor).

Oh, wait, I forgot all about CA's "Rainy Day Bubble Revenue Surplus Fund"! Oh, wait, the reason I forgot about it is IT DOESN'T EXIST.

Will they try to raise taxes? What about CA and it’s Prop 13?

Prop. 13 will prevent this from happening statewide (one of the reasons Prop. 13 remains so popular, despite its flaws/long-term effects), though cash-strapped cities & counties can opt for "backdoor" forms of tax increases. These could take the form of as "special one-time" assessments for "infrastructure improvements", etc., or supplemental annual tax on properties falling within a specific geographic area, such as Mello-Roos. Local government is very creative and adaptable in finding new ways to part you from your surplus money.

Will a lot of people with equity, but lower house values (after the crash) try to change their tax basis?

Excellent question. I was too young & poor back in the previous crash (early 90s) to have been paying attention to such things, but perhaps some of the other long-time residents can elighten us. Did recent homebuyers who had their tax basis "locked in" at the height of the last RE bubble petition the state to get it reduced? Were they successful?

Harm

Yep - I'm in CA!

wow...they can't quarantee anything, including the square footage

Larry Nusbaum Says:

Robert Shiller, Yale economist, famous for his stockmarket book “Irrational Exuberance” published in 2000 now believes that the housing craze is another bubble destined to end badly.”It probably will feel bad when the turndown comes. However, in many areas of the country like Ohio, Pa, Mi, Mn, Wi, upstate NY, Tx, Al, Ak, Ms, etc., there never was a “housing craze”.

Lemme guess, and next, your SPAMBOT will spit out a comment about how much money we can all make by using your website to help make money on real estate in these states, right?

Claire Says:

> Where do you get information about foreclosure
> properties though? As I imagine they might be
> the better buy next year/in a couple of years?

When I managed property I got to know a guy (realtor/slumlord) in our building that had been buying and selling foreclosed properties for over 20 years. I actually went with him to buy property “on the courthouse steps” (do they still do this?) with cashiers checks. Unless you are an expert and are 100% sure that the property you got for a “great deal” does not have $200K in IRS liens (the IRS always gets paid) you should stay away from foreclosures. Most homedebtors are still in living in the house on the day of the foreclosure sale so you have to deal with getting them out while at the same time convincing them that you will hunt them down and kill them if they thrash the place (civil action against a guy who just lost his home, is in BK and owes 10x what he is worth is just a waste of time). The foreclosure guy I got to know had some tough deals early on where people really thrashed the place (including the classic cement down the drain trick) so he started meeting the (former) homedebtors as soon as possible with brandy on his breath and his Browning Hi-Power in his shoulder rig peeking out from his jacket while trying to seem a little psycho (think Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon 1) trying to make sure that the former homedebtors would feel certain that the new owner would hunt them down and put a bullet in their head if they thrash the place…

SFWoman Says:

> OK, ever since I posted as Danielle telling you guys
> to read “The House’ my name keeps posting as her,
> even though I change it back. I am not actually
> Danielle, sorry.

So it looks like we won't be having the next BLOG party at the Spreckles mansion and get to meet all Danielle Steele's dysfunctional kids and her gay ex husband...

SFWoman Says:

> Bush is Skull and Bones all the way. They won’t repudiate him.

Let's not forget that Kerry is also a Bonesman...

The older I get the more I see that (almost) every really successful guy had Dad (in most cases) or other older role model (in rare cases) directing him to join the "right" clubs and meet the "right" people...

"so he started meeting the (former) homedebtors as soon as possible with brandy on his breath and his Browning Hi-Power in his shoulder rig peeking out from his jacket while trying to seem a little psycho (think Mel Gibson in Lethal Weapon 1) trying to make sure that the former homedebtors would feel certain that the new owner would hunt them down and put a bullet in their head if they thrash the place…"

Cheap bottle of brandy? $15

Used side arms? $120

Making little Timmy and Tammy Homedebtor cry? Priceless

Walk softly and carry a big stick. LOL!

Kerry's immediate family was not wealthy though his extended family was quite wealthy. He got really lucky with his rich widow.

"The older I get the more I see that (almost) every really successful guy had Dad (in most cases) or other older role model (in rare cases) directing him to join the “right” clubs and meet the “right” people…"

I can really see that. Women still don't have a comparable mentoring system. As sick as it is to say this in 2006, it seems like a woman's best shot at world class success continues to be marriage to a world class man.

I am a Texan. I was born and raised in Fort Worth and will never accept GWB as a Texan. He is a carpet bagger yankee who wishes he was a Texan. In 2000 I was glad to be rid of him. He nearly bankrupted Texas, why not let him do the same to America?

Yeah, like naive beliefs in communism and fabian socia1ism.
SP

what’s wrong with that??? american libertarians are virtually communists if only they knew it…

newsfreak’s foot would be better now under fabian socia1ism…

anyway, the US has the most regressive welfare state in the affluent OECD and more pro rata poverty, and quality of healthcare ranks 37th in the world, vs the ‘fabian socia1ist’ european nation states…

this paper suggests that the odds of the exit polls being different from the reported results in the 04 election are 250 million to 1 against! :?

http://truthout.org/unexplainedexitpoll.pdf

astrid Says:

> Kerry’s immediate family was not wealthy though
> his extended family was quite wealthy. He got
> really lucky with his rich widow.

Kerry’s first wife was also rich (her brother brought John home with him from Yale)…
The first choice for most woman is the rich “and” powerful guy, but most woman are happy as can be if a man is just one of the above. The first choice for most men is the rich “and” hot looking woman, but less than 1% of men would pick a rich woman if she was not attractive…

> I can really see that. Women still don’t have a
> comparable mentoring system. As sick as it is
> to say this in 2006, it seems like a woman’s
> best shot at world class success continues to
> be marriage to a world class man.

The reason that there are so few mentors for women in the business world is that most women do everything they can to avoid being in the business world…

Women that want to marry a rich successful man have plenty of mentors and even have groups to join like the Spinsters of SF where you have an entire group of girls helping each other find rich successful guys (operating under the cover of fundraising)…

"Women that want to marry a rich successful man have plenty of mentors and even have groups to join like the Spinsters of SF where you have an entire group of girls helping each other find rich successful guys"

Women acting as rational economic beings? I suppose. Most women are not as wildly ambitious as men. That's probably an evolutionary advantage.

He got really lucky with his rich widow.

very lucky. twice...

Though...given the ease of divorce (and the alarming frequency of divorce amongst moguls), personal success might not be a bad thing. Maybe a couple generation of selection will eventually advantage female ambition and make women go more for the "great dad" material.

I suppose many "great dads" and wives of "great dads" on this board would say this trend has already began.

"very lucky. twice…"

He's quite good looking, he's sporty, he comes from a good family and was pegged for high office. Probably not too hard. Though marrying into ketchup money required another one of those unlucky small plane accidents

ajh Says:
First Yukos, now Shell. Looks like Russia isn’t interested in having their ‘free market capitalism’ tainted by entities which they can’t control politically.

why not? i would secure those resources for my country and people too if i was putin... when did he ever say he was a 'free market capitalist'?

very lucky. twice...

actually, his 2nd wife also got lucky marrying into the heinz fortune in the first place...

or, you can just hang out at the pub and hope to run into a crowned head of europe to marry...

ok, she has an acceptable pedigree, i just have to find out which pub she hangs out at...

Ha Ha,

I was involved in the RPV (Remote Piloted Vehicle) from it's inception. It was nothing short of bizarre to clear an entire flight deck to make way for basically a model airplane that was captured on a clothes line attached to motorcycle brakes with a bent coat hanger for an arresting hook. (But you know, it worked!)

So it looks like we won’t be having the next BLOG party at the Spreckles mansion and get to meet all Danielle Steele’s dysfunctional kids and her gay ex husband…

Such lovely sentiment, picking on a 59 year old woman. She must be terrible, being both an accomplished pop author and having caused her ex to turn gay. Is FAB really the ghost of Roy Cohn?

No role models for career women? Inexplicably, against apparent tremendous odds, my extremely successful career wife was never for want of accomplished business role models, including working for numerous female Big 6 Partners, female EVPs, 2 female public corp CEOs. Now she is a role model to others.

Perhaps the ghost of Cohn is stuck haunting a previous era where those stereotypes had some traction.

SFWoman,

Can someone refresh my memory here? Wasn't Northern Trust Co. (up until very recently pooh-poohing the notion of a bubble, let alone a national bubble?). I can't recall if it was Paul Kasriel's comments or one of the other analysts but if memory serves correct this is a complete 180.

note the british first rung housing website looks like some sort of treatment centre for depressives in colour scheme and graphics -- do they know something we don't?

"another one of those unlucky small plane accidents"

I realize this is a tad morbid but there's a reason I've elected not to defy the laws of God anymore than is absolutely necessary:

www.celebratetoday.com/airceleb.html

SFWoman,

I could be completely wrong but it seems all throughout the bubble's ascent into nose bleed levels every article and research report N.T put out was the typical cheerleading with of course all of the typical caveats and qualifiers.

"As long as int. rates/unemployment remain low we see no end in sight" type blather. (I hate to keep being a stickler about this but right is right damn it!)

Oh and from your Philly Inq. article:

"Who'd have thought you'd have a bubble in Toledo!"

Randy H Says:

> Such lovely sentiment, picking on a 59 year old woman.
> She must be terrible, being both an accomplished pop
> author and having caused her ex to turn gay.

There are a lot of things that are not PC that you can never say in public including “real estate might down in value” “some realtors don’t follow the code of ethics” “everyone is equal” and “women want to work in business just as much as men”…

Here on the Blog we can talk about real life like how real estate values are falling in front of our eyes, how most Realtors would screw their parents to make a commission, how the kid who’s Dad was a Bonesmen with Bush probably has a better shot at the CEO job than the kid from the projects and most women really just want to stay home with the kids…

In addition to being an accomplished pop author Danielle was a runner up to Kathy Hilton in the America’s worst mom competition. Many thought that Danielle would win since none of Kathy’s kids have killed themselves yet, but even the last minute push by Danielle getting her teenage daughters in to Vanity Fair dressed as hookers was not enough to edge out Kathy for the win since her daughters basically are hookers…

SQT,

Oh agreed! (That's why I drive as little as possible as well). I'm especially taking Peter P's advice on avoiding two lane roads). Actually I think that same site has a link to celebs that died in car crashes as well.

What struck me is I "speed scrolled" through the list was how many of the accidents occured while filming movies or attending a charity event or collided with someone they knew. Small world isn't it? Ted Williams was shot down over Korea. I'm guessing Ted felt his being there was important. *astrid's reference to H. John Heinz the 3rd. was his own helicopter's rotor blades hitting his own plane on a playground where additionally two children were killed.

The danger comes when people "fall in love" with aviation and would rather fly than drive any day! Most of these people were "off the clock". When you do it for a living it's totally different. All you're thinking is, whatever happens today. I'm going home to my wife and kids. Most guys that work on airplanes aren't "living the life".

I think it's the same as the myth that cowboys "loved" their horses. (Truth is if they loved them at all, it was simply b/c it beat walking).

FAB,

Kind of inclined to agree. My eldest sister (now deceased GRHS) was a draftsman in the 70's. (This is before they had draftspersons/people). She endured more sexism and favoritism than you can shake a stick at. There was no HR Policy back in the day and additionally she was NEVER invited to any of the "guy thing" functions. (And it was always a "guy thing").

I'd like to think though that some advancements have taken place between then and now and hope my daughters will find the work world a better place.

This is quite a good article summarising mortage-backed securities:

What mortgage-backed securities mean for the US housing market - Money Week

well put, mike. but then i'm a 5th columnist for the commies, what would i know... i might also suggest that the shape-shifting reptiles putting forward people like ronald reagan and dan quayle is an insult to the american people -- but the military-industrial complex took over ages ago...

Hysterical post on Portland's C/L!

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/rfs/209751068.html

(It's in Flipperwood Estates)

Does anyone have an update on Ben's blog? I still can't get to it today! I need my fix!

SQT,

That's a shame. Dino Martin's plane was clocked at 560 MPH while hitting solid granite in I believe the San Bernadino Mountains? In a way this kind of illustrates my point. Insurance companies are now asking for higher premiums from clients that engage in "high risk" activites. I'm against Ins. companies using "red line" techniques and now even credit scores to gouge people but folks that do white water rafting after their base jumping excursion should pay more. IMHO.

"Flipperwood Estates" was a classic post! The home described is typical of that neighborhood so it made it just credible enough to not get pulled post haste. "I can come down a little in price, but not too much b/c of my 70% profit margin"! Classic.

skibum,

According to Claire's post yesterday Ben said it should be up today. I'm relieved that it's just a technical glitch and not some hijacking or sell-out. (I wasn't really concerned about the later b/c Ben is one of those "stand up" guys). He'll get it together!

DQ has the August SoCal numbers out:

http://dqnews.com/RRSCA0906.shtm

Home sales in Southern California continued at their slowest pace in nine years as price levels appeared to be nearing a plateau, a real estate information service reported.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $489,000 last month. That was down 0.6 percent from July's $492,000, and up 2.7 percent from $476,000 in August last year. Last month's increase was the smallest since July 1999, when the $193,000 median also rose 2.7 percent from $188,000 a year earlier.

The positive gains appear to be held up by sales in Riverside, San Bernadino, and LA counties. SD is negative, while Ventura and Orange are barely (+) YoY.

So, do you think this guy is biased, or what:

"There's an awful lot of moaning going on right now. Potential buyers and sellers need to be careful what they believe and exercise common sense in their decision making. The market is certainly off from its frenzy, but we have to remember that it takes much more downward pressure to push prices down than upward pressure to push them up. Prices have doubled the last four-and-a-half years. So does the market keep all of that gain, or only ninety percent?," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.