patrick.net

SFGuy,

I don't see a contradiction. My personal belief and US policy are two different things. So while I wish US never got entangled into Israel, now that we're there, I think the US has an obligation to get out with a minimum of harm. What that means, hell if I know.

Oh whatever, just say I'm looking for plausible deniability. I'm not in any kind of political power, so it doesn't really matter what my position on this is.

SFGuy,

Ethanol and bio-diesel are very feasable, and already being used at scale in Brazil. We have the tech. Others who are much more knowledgeable than I have commented extensively on this in past threads.

If you add nuclear to that to offload the grid from fossil sources, augment with electric propulsion wherever practical, and continue pressing coal gassification techs, we're in better shape than anyone else except perhaps Canada. We have a good amount of uranium; and much more is in Australia, which will keep trading with us for at least 50 more years even in bad circumstances. We have coal and corn coming out of our ears.

We have coal and corn coming out of our ears.

And do not forget natural gas.

Solor is not ready yet though. A 15kW system is too expensive for most houses.

The idea of “Islamic Banking” is gaining some traction in the west.

Interesting concept --and also interesting how the whole Israel/Palestine debate here has intersected with housing/finance in a totally unexpected way. Here's the Wikipedia link.

In theory, Islamic Banking requires full-reserve (100%) ratio, unlike our printing-press addicted, currency debasing Fed. It also requires risk and any profits to be shared between the borrower and lender, which sounds pretty good at face value.

The downsides? For one thing, lending must adhere to the strictures of Sharia in terms of what the money is being lent for (i.e., no "sin" products/services --alcohol, sex, gambling, pork, etc.). "Ethical investing" also sounds an awful lot like a muslim fundamentalist version of CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility), and we all know the drawbacks of that thanks to our resident CSR expert, Mr. Randall H., Esq.

if we couldrapidly replace oil with some other energy source we owned), this would be another world. I don’t disagree with the sentiment at all. It’s just that my understanding (NOT an expert in physics, energy engineering or corn!) is that no such energy source exists at this time. It;s also my understanding that we could be doing more to discover one - not clear why we’re not.

Do you know something we don’t? If so, what’s the ticker symbol

There is no quick alternative in the short term. But in the long term, the world is awash in oil alternatives --nuclear, biodiesel, hydro, coal, oil shale. Coal is dirty, nuclear is dangerous, biodiesel and hydro will never be enough to meet our energy needs and shale is expensive to extract (I didn't say there were any reliable, cheap, efficient, clean and renewable energy sources). But who knows, with Richard Branson's money maybe they will come up with something.

If you are looking for a ticker, you may want to check out CNQ (not investment advice). It is a Canadian company with massive oil shale reserves. Canada is like the Saudi Arabia of shale (basically oil imbedded in gravel, as I understand it). It is inefficient and expensive to extract oil from shale, but it can be done for the right price. Supposedly, CNQ can make money even if oil goes back down to $30/barrel. But if oil goes back to $20/barrel, you won't need to worry about the money you lost on CNQ because you can fill up your Hummer for cheap!

The downsides? For one thing, lending must adhere to the strictures of Sharia in terms of what the money is being lent for (i.e., no “sin” products/services –alcohol, sex, gambling, pork, etc.).

Plus if you default they pelt your wife with stones!

nuclear is dangerous

Based on 1960s/70s era technology (which virtually all operating U.S. reactors are based on), I would agree, but not so much with latest-gen technology. The safety of nuclear fission NRG reactors has radically improved since 3-mile or Chernobyl. Reactors designed/built today (at least in 1st world nations) are far safer by several orders of magnitude than reactors built a generation ago. No comparison.

Plus, new designs allow a tremendous reduction in the amount as well as the half-life of nuclear waste produced --as much as a 98% reduction by volume, according to one Scientific American article I read last year (sorry, don't have the link handy).

Wow, I leave the office for a few hours and the really fun discussions happen! Israel will likely go away on its own; simple demographics will dictate that. 80% of both population groups (SWAG number) prefer peace anyway, the problem is dealing with the remainder. (Settlers and suicide bombers both; the racism exhibited by both sides is frankly disgusting.)

DinOR: Are you referring to credit unions?

but if the banks were forced by the Fed into 100% reserves, wouldn’t the economy grind to a hault? Wouldn’t we pretty much return to the finance world of the middle ages?

I'm no economics history expert (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong), but didn't the entire world pretty much run on full-reserve banking prior to the creation of the Fed (1914) and other central banks? If so, then wouldn't we simply be returning to a relatively recent era (historically speaking) before easy credit, perma-inflation, and debt = wealth paradigm? Doesn't sound so bad to me.

The "no sin" prohibition, on the other hand... :-(

SFGuy

if we have the tech to replace oil with other energy sources, why isn’t the market providing solutions? Is oil still not expensive enough to justify the switch?

Exactly. Oil is too cheap now. It won't be forever. It's edging high enough to spur the market into putting some real $ into R&D in areas like bio, new-gen nuke, and coal liquification/gassification.

OPEC is greedy, but they aren't stupid. They know that they have to manage the rise of prices very carefully or else their reign of petrodollars will come to a premature end. This is why they always seem to come up with the capacity, even when they'd just assume spit on the US than sell us their oil.

The beauty of an efficient market at work. Oil is a commodity. They can't set one price for us and another for everyone else.

HARM

No. Reserves and deficits have existed for a very long time, going back many centuries.

There is a common misconception that gold-reserve demand systems meant that there was always 100% backing of gold in reserve for all currency. That's not true by any measure. Various city and nation states deficit spent, were called by creditors, and then fought wars over who owned the gold. And, de facto derivative markets existed, especially during colonial times, which amplified the amount of claims against securities. Remember, every merchant ship that left port carried dozens or hundreds of implicit futures contracts.

Nuclear is dangerous? Only in the hands of complete idiots. Chernobyl was a case of said idiots combined with a very bad reactor design. Even though idiots are plentiful, we don't use such designs. I would also point out that the Navy has an extremely good track record in this area (what do you think powers our boats?). Of course, a good chunk of that is likely due to Rickover, but it still goes to show that nuclear isn't the threat people make it out to be.

BTW, the wildlife is doing quite well around that part of Ukraine. I recommend avoiding the roadside strawberry stands though.

I hate those *&^%% koi ponds everywhere! So trendy and stupid. Does anybody really want a koi pond so they can look at koi? Or do they all just put them in because their flipper landscaping consultant told them it would add value?

First, koi are disgusting. They look like radioactive post-apocalypse goldfish.

Second, koi ponds are expensive! You have to feed the koi, periodically drain the pond, etc... If you don't maintain the pond, you will have stagnant pool of slimy water in your yard--mosquitoes, west nile, etc...

Third, if you have a dog, he will eat your koi.

Fourth, if you have kids, they will fall in the koi pond.

Fifth, nobody is impressed by a koi pond anymore. It is so 1998.

The guy in the article writes software for a defense contractor. Now we know where all those no-bid contract dollars went... Your federal tax dollars at work giving a job to this numbskull.

Glen,

My unrelenting attack on koi ponds knows no bounds! To me, it's symbolic of the whole debacle. A total emphasis on eye candy and not a care in the world for any thing of lasting value!

Tell me you put extra insulation in the attic. Tell me you had drainage installed. Tell me anything! Just don't tell me about your freaking koi pond!

The house we bought in Redwood City in 96 had a very cute little Koi pond out back. No cute little bridge, but a pleasant little pond. The fish did remind me of "Blinky" (from classic Simpson fame).

I hate to maintain water-based attractions. Case-in-point, I managed to turn our next home's pool into a frog sanctuary.

Anyhow, after our dog ate all the Koi -- took about 3 weeks sine a couple were good at hiding, I drained the pond, filled it in and covered it with some nice sod.

I'm not sure whether the dog liked the yard or fish snacks better, though. Now that we have a son, I'd fill it in on day 1.

moderate infidel,

No, what I said was that I believe Israel should never have existed in the first place. Now that it is, we have a fine mess of a situation because the US is joined at the hip to the state of Israel. If we can go back in time to redo the white settlement of the US, I would advocate giving Indians something more valuable than worthless desert land chased 100 years later with the right to operate casinos.

I might remind you that the whites were the bullies in the settlement of the North America. By my logic, well, I don't like that it happened, but I would have declared it a historic inevitability and say there's little need to now go back and redress the situation (since the Indian tribes are not engaging in guerilla war with the rest of America).

Maybe they planted a Japanese maple next to the Koi pond, that would add another 50k to the value for sure

LMFAO. My above referenced experience was under a Japanese Maple. We kept that though, it wasn't too bad.

Koi ponds can be dug and filled for about $500. That particular pond is way too small and too exposed (no tree coverage) for any serious koi keeper. The ponds are a real hassle to keep. You gotta treat it with chemicals or you'll have algae problems very quickly.

moderate infidel,

I wish! But the other "countries" (yeah, all blocks of the Ottoman Empire) have a vested interest in hating Israel and blaming Israel for their internal problems. Egypt and Jordan are about as close as Israel has for regional allies, and their populace still loaths Israel.

That particular koi pond is particularly idiotic. It's in Florida and with no tree cover, their fish is gonna all flop belly up on a hot day (God forbid the air pump goes out during hurricane season) and then the pool will be a breeding ground for mosquitoes.

But why should these governments ever stop? The US and the EU appears to have no power to stop them (even after decades of meticulous effort) and Israel certainly is in no position to make a bargain.

moderate: I wouldn't blame Islam; it's in the culture itself, and would be there even if Islam wasn't.

There's a great essay on the matter here:
"The World's Most Toxic Value System"
http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/PSEUDOSC/TOXICVAL.HTM

hmm.. my comment awaits moderation. Is it from the link, or a keyword?

RE: US agency calls for routine testing for AIDS

This is a sign of dystopia.

Why should everyone be tested for AIDS? It is not something that is easy to catch.

US agencies should call for monogamous relationships and responsible rehaviors. They should call for a ban of media programs that condone/promote promiscuity.

One positive sign is that the religious is gaining political power. Hopefully they can do something.

Peter P: The first person I can think of with AIDS was infected from a lab accident. A slip of the needle was all it took.

I see nothing wrong with calling for responsible behaviors; preventing certain religious groups from trying to neuter sex-ed classes would help a great deal in this regard. Of course, one could take the cynical view that they benefit from the population increase, "sinful" as it is. (This is actually aimed at evangelicals as well as catholics.)

IMO, treating sex as a taboo subject only increases the incidence of teen pregnancy and promotes an unhealthy mental self-image. Some religions get this right, others don't.

Admittedly, a lab accident is not an everyday event. Still, the non-sexual vector is significant enough. I haven't read the exact proposal; it seems mostly grandstanding as there are plenty of other diseases out there we could be testing for as well. What makes AIDS so special?

Tell me you put extra insulation in the attic. Tell me you had drainage installed. Tell me anything! Just don’t tell me about your freaking koi pond!

Dinor,
I know. Why would to buy a house from someone with such lame priorities. They probably have a cracked foundation, rusty pipes and a sagging roof. But look at that koi pond!

I nominate koi ponds to join the flipper lame improvement hall of fame--along with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, faux hardwood floors, "feature walls" with brightly colored paints and "home staging."

How stupid do you have to be, as a buyer, to fall for these tricks? I will not pay an extra nickel to have a bright orange wall in my living room or a stainless steel fridge. Sorry.

I am thinking that when the crash really gets going, you may be able to find a few diamonds in the rough--ie: homes for sale untouched by flippers and reasonably priced. The discerning buyer in a down market will pay attention to things that actually matter--location, square footage, lot size and neighborhood features (trees, proximity to beach, views, etc.) With lots of inventory available, you may be able to find a decent house with some of these features at a reasonably price.

When the market bottoms, the flipper house on a postage stamp lot decked out with flipper amenities will retrace to its underlying value as the paint fades and the koi die.

SFGuy Says:

> I don’t want to go off topic again, but I have to! Atrid,
> I must say that I strongly disagree with that line of
> thinking (and it’s implications).

This is not as off topic as it seems since basically many people are recommending that the Israelis find some new real estate, and move out of the “bad neighborhood” they currently live in…

> I wonder if you actually believe it and live your life
> that way. It may be a little simplistic as an analogy
> on my part, but I wouldn’t be too far off to say that
> your argument is the same some people make for
> victims of crime (they were asking for it etc etc)

The victims of many crimes are “asking for it”…
The perpetrators of the crimes are still wrong and should be punished, but anyone that walks up to a drunk guy at a Raider game and tells him that “all Raider fans are homos” is probably going down… If I park my car in a “bad neighborhood” like Hunters Point with the top down (and if I’m lucky and it is still there when I get back) my wallet and checkbook will probably have disappeared from the dash…

> Do you seriously believe LOGIC dictates Israel be
> vacated of non-Arabs?!

If I moved to a home in a “bad neighborhood” surrounded by crazy religious nut balls that wanted to kill me and my family would a “logical” person stay? Would they stay if the neighbors sent their children in to your home on a regular basis with bomb vests? Would the “logical” person stay if their kids were kidnapped? Would they stay when the neighbors shot rockets at the house for days on end or wouldn’t a “Logical” person just move?

They might just be of that new religion that wants to turn us all into vegans.

I thought the Bible condone meat eating. Most vegetarians I know are liberals. (Most meat-eaters I know are liberals too.)

Peter P: The first person I can think of with AIDS was infected from a lab accident. A slip of the needle was all it took.

Perhaps SFWoman can provide some insight on this... but I thought the single-exposure risk of HIV infection is not too high (0.5% to 5%). The risk is still significant, but the epidemic itself could not have been fueled by accidents.

I see nothing wrong with calling for responsible behaviors; preventing certain religious groups from trying to neuter sex-ed classes would help a great deal in this regard.

I am a liberal conservative. I do think that sex-ed classes are not necessarily bad. However, we need balance. How about something like the DUI HAM (hospital and morgue) program? This should shock teenagers into responsible behaviors.

US agencies should call for monogamous relationships and responsible rehaviors. They should call for a ban of media programs that condone/promote promiscuity.

One positive sign is that the religious is gaining political power. Hopefully they can do something.

Huh?
Are you pulling our leg here or being serious?

What makes AIDS so special?

It is just an attempt of extreme political correctness. Flu is a much bigger threat.

I cannot think of a single positive result of the Religious Right gaining power in recent elections. In the long run it just means more Big Government sticking its snout in my bedroom and regulating personal morality and other things it ought not be regulating.

I'm not saying the Left can't be just as self-righteous, arrogant and invasive (PETA, vegan-extremists, TODlers, etc.), just that religion and state don't mix well in a free society.

The Bible condones all sorts of things, that's what makes it so wonderful. Want to have an abortion? Sell a troublesome daughter into slavery? There's a verse for everyone!

/thinks a DUI HAM program would rock, btw.

Peter P,

If there was universal health coverage and no discrimination for people with chronic illness, I would recommend people get annual or biannual tests for a battery of diseases.

Isn't Hinduism essentially promoting veganism? I don't have any observant Hindu friends, so I'm not completely sure. I have observed a high proportion of vegans and vegetarians who ditch their diet plan when they spot their former favorite dish on the menu or on their meat eating friend's plate.

I cannot think of a single positive result of the Religious Right gaining power in recent elections. In the long run it just means more Big Government sticking its snout in my bedroom and regulating personal morality and other things it ought not be regulating.

Perhaps you are right.

Peter P Says:

> RE: US agency calls for routine testing for AIDS
> Why should everyone be tested for AIDS?

To make everyone think that they may soon get AIDS… You will never raise a lot of money to research a disease that only affects IV drug users and people that have gay sex…

> It is not something that is easy to catch.

It is very easy to catch if you are having gay sex or sharing needles…

In the early 80’s lots of heterosexuals (including Paul Gann who wrote California’s Prop. 13 with Howard Jarvis) were infected with the AIDS virus before they tested the blood, but almost none of their heterosexual partners got AIDS. Most of the people with AIDS are either admitted IV drug users or people that admit to having gay sex. When you consider that there are a lot of men and women who don’t want to admit to having gay sex or using IV drugs to their family before they die it is “almost all” of the people with AIDS. ..

The social non-acceptance of HIV and other venereal diseases is a serious public health issue, even for straight people who never touch drugs. In sub-Saharan Africa, being a married woman puts you at higher risk for AIDS because many of the husbands fool around without telling their wives. Ditto for some black women whose husband/boyfriend goes on the down low. A recent NYT article mentioned that some HIV positive South African women actually rejected AIDS drugs while pregnant (which would dramatically reduce mother to child HIV transmission) just to avoid the social stigma of being infected.

In sub-Saharan Africa, being a married woman puts you at higher risk for AIDS because many of the husbands fool around without telling their wives.

I am mostly a libertarian but I think adultery should be a crime. This is about upholding the institution of marriage, which is associated with special legal status anyway.