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Face Reality is a Lying Full-of-Shit Troll


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2006 Oct 4, 8:46am   4,889 views  36 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Face Reality (artist's conception)
--Face Reality (artist's conception)

Face Reality Says:
October 4th, 2006 at 2:47 pm

There’s a lot of revisionism here.

Patently false. Not only have none of the regulars tried to hide any previous predictions, we’ve openly admitted our mistakes –unlike the perma-bulls. Of course, they have mostly been mistakes in timing (I was too bearish too early), not in the overall direction or scale of what was happening:

FuckedCounty.com “dead pool” revisited

As recently as a year ago, the prevalent opinion on this blog was that a big crash was imminent in the Bay Area. It was even presented as a fait accompli.

It was and it still is. The bubble took several years to build on the way up, and will likely take several years to bust on the way down. As just about every regular on this blog has repeatedly noted, the RE market is very inefficient and sticky compared to the equities and bond markets.

The predictions of the participants turned out to be wrong (as they had been in previous years as well).

To what “predictions in previous years” are you referring? Or, are you just talking out of your ass (as usual)? Knowing exactly how far the RE market will drop is still years away. How “wrong” our long-term predictions will turn out to be remains to be seen.

Now, let's revisit some pearls of wisdom from our Revisionist Historian-in-residence himself, Face Reality:

Percent of houses with mortgages?

Face Reality Says:
May 12th, 2005 at 9:15 pm

...This can’t continue forever, of course, so prices will flatten eventually, but if there are any signs of a “crash” in the Bay Area, they’re completely lost on me.

Face Reality Says:
May 12th, 2005 at 10:46 pm

Who are all these supposed speculators? Do you have any information about speculator activity in the Bay Area? It just doesn’t seem to be a big thing in this particular area. Costs are much lower and appreciation is even higher in some other parts of the country, so I doubt that speculators would find the Bay Area very attractive. I know I wouldn’t be “speculating” here.

Face Reality Says:
May 14th, 2005 at 3:49 am

I’ve been hearing about this impending crash in Bay Area house prices for years now. I would have been in deep doo-doo (to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars) if I had listened to these predictions. Sorry, but if the market was going to crash because of the reasons you gave, it would have crashed already. It is much more resilient than people here think. This doesn’t mean that it will keep going up fast forever (it won’t), but a crash is just wishful thinking on the part of some people.

Face Reality Says:
May 16th, 2005 at 10:42 pm

What is the culture of the Bay Area? There’s a very large number of immigrants from all over the world here. Many of these folks are willing to spend staggering amounts of money buying their homes. They are used to very high home prices relative to incomes in their home countries. I think the “band of affordability tolerance” of this immigrant culture is much higher than you think.

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM

#housing

« First        Comments 16 - 36 of 36        Search these comments

16   HARM   2006 Oct 4, 11:02am  

@RC,

Saw your "Kubler-Ross" post on the Casey Serin blog --both funny & true!

17   surfer-x   2006 Oct 4, 11:27am  

HARM,

I love you, can we spoon?

Very Sincerely and Respectfully,

Surfer-X,
VP of Sin, HARM-X industries LLC.

18   OO   2006 Oct 4, 12:49pm  

When Ben is saying something, obviously he is saying it for a purpose.

What do you think his words are setting up for? Rate cut? Tax increase?

19   Allah   2006 Oct 4, 12:51pm  

Gee, maybe that could happen here.

Ya think?

20   astrid   2006 Oct 4, 12:58pm  

I don't think Face Reality is an ugly troll or even a troll. He seems rather dwarvish to me. A bit misguided but he does raise plausible questions.

21   Doug H   2006 Oct 4, 1:17pm  

SFWoman is absolutely correct; people will tell you almost anything if you ask....it's amazing.

However, I'm still in shock over the price sq/ft AND having to spend more on renovations than I'll spend on a new house!

What drugs are involved in these decisions?.....LOL Maybe someone will do a study on which drugs are more likely to to drive up the purchase price and by how much.....Hmmmm.

22   astrid   2006 Oct 4, 1:25pm  

Doug H,

Forget renovation costs. What these houses cost will produce enough annual income to live in a similar style in a cheaper part of the country.

23   astrid   2006 Oct 4, 2:03pm  

SFWoman,

Great point! Does that mean Cow Hollow is ripe for a huuuuge price? No MIRAGE support there?

24   astrid   2006 Oct 4, 2:06pm  

Hiding,

My Batman v. Superman card contracts will yield far more! That guy next door just sold me his 4 spots for $2/each. I'd be willing to transfer to you for $3.50. I'm sure you can find a suc...financial genius here who recognize the real appreciation value of these cards and buy them at $75 per spot next year.

25   astrid   2006 Oct 4, 2:07pm  

huuuuuge price = huuuuge price drop

I'm just terrible, really really terrible...at proofreading

26   FormerAptBroker   2006 Oct 4, 2:40pm  

ConfusedRenter Says:

> My realtor just e-mailed me this listing. It was a
> complete fixer he said and needed over $500,000
> in work. It just closed yesterday for $855,000 OVER
> asking?! Have you seen this place? Looks really dumpy.

http://tinyurl.com/fg5ha

According to title records Father Edmund L. Hayburn took title to the 2,390 sf (not 2,557 as the listing says) home via a trustees deed in 1991 from his brother Rev. Monsignor Robert F. Hayburn.

Reason for sale is below:

Rev. Edmund L. Hayburn died in Oakland, February 23, 2006. Son of the late Emma L. and James C. Hayburn. Dear brother of Ruth M. Hayburn-Cisek (Frank); brother-in-law of Vickie Hay-burn-Kehoe, and brother of the following late: Evelyn Levinson, Msgr. Robert F. Hayburn and James Hayburn. Loving uncle of Mara E. Amato (Michael), Anne M. Cooley (Michael), Marsha Felice (John) and Janice Charbonneau; cousin of Edmund W. Clarke. A member of Knights of Columbus. Former pastor of St. Agnes Parish, Concord, and St. Leonard Parish, Fremont. He was grateful for dedicated friends, Arline Lipman, Dolores Garcia and Margaret Griffith.

It’s funny that a pile of crap in Cow Hollow is selling for $2,750,000 (over $1,000 a sf) today when years ago Cow Hollow was so affordable that even priests who took a “vow of poverty” could buy in the neighborhood. As a kid I remember a lot of priest living in Cow Hollow (but they never lived in Pacific Heights or drove Cadillacs). The one exception was the Archbishop who lived at 2840 Broadway (the Willis Polk home just down from Gordon Getty’s place) before the church sold the home in 1991 to John Rosekrans (who’s grandparents built the Legion of Honor and Spreckels mansion where Daniele Steele now lives…

27   FormerAptBroker   2006 Oct 4, 2:58pm  

ConfusedRenter Says:

> the one thing the house has going for it, is it’s
> oversized 3,800 sqft lot. Very large vs. the typical
> 2,500sqft lot.

It's hard to think of 3,800 sf as "very large" after growing up in the suburbs in a city with a 22,000 sf minimum lot size...

28   surfer-x   2006 Oct 4, 3:27pm  

ConfusedRenter get your faggot ass the fuck back to craigslist. Bad troll no more masturbation for you.

HARM, come on man, whip out the troll-b-gon

30   e   2006 Oct 4, 6:21pm  

I took a stab at creating my first new thread ever: Where are the drops?

31   Michael Holliday   2006 Oct 5, 2:06am  

eburbed Says:

"Did you folks see the Moody report for their expected home price drop?
San Jose was dead last at -.2%."
_____

I took a little trip out to San Jo from Phoenix a few weeks ago. Looked pretty dumpy. I was disappointed.

Since San Jo is so overpriced, I think it's going to have one of the highest price drops in the nation. Just you wait and see!

32   lunarpark   2006 Oct 5, 3:21am  

"I took a little trip out to San Jo from Phoenix a few weeks ago. Looked pretty dumpy."

Most of San Jose IS dumpy. Definitely over-priced by 40% +

33   EBGuy   2006 Oct 5, 3:56am  

Folks, I must say this thread makes you look like a bunch of poor, angry, vindictive apartment dwellers instead of the smug (and rich) renters that you are (or should be). Here is the latest on the BA scene and its micro-markets. Will be interesting to see if some of these places take a hit in the next couple of months.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/10/05/BUGPLLICBL1.DTL&type=business
"Prices in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties will rise about 3.6 percent a year for the next two years even as home values in the East Bay slip, according to a Moody's Economy.com report."

34   HARM   2006 Oct 5, 4:05am  

@Surfer-X,

Right back at'cha, buddy! (Though I think a hug might be more appropriate ;-) ).

@Robert Cote,

You got it!

35   HARM   2006 Oct 5, 4:10am  

@SQT,

Once again you have perfectly encapsulated my thoughts and feelings.

36   marinite   2006 Oct 5, 9:16am  

Maybe Face Reality is right and the site below was just created by a bitter renter to trick people in to thinking that real estate can drop in value (Realtors know that just like limited edition Batman cards real estate always goes up since they don’t make it any more).

Real estate always goes up...just not in Sacramento.

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