patrick.net

That sad thing is that once again the original issue has become lost a popular hot-topic debate. I wasn't defending any position on anything other than two specific HSBC home affordability metrics.

I apologize that I used a browser instead of my RSS reader, which usually filters out the baits that started this whole thing. I took some effort to pull out data from spreadsheets to support and debate with Gavin's numbers.

To that I was baited with a "Randy must be using old, when mom didn't work" argument. I already apologized for dignifying that. Actually, I wouldn't have, but then George raised a valid question about hedonic consistency, so I got caught up defending why we shouldn't "back out mom's income".

Question: Where am I going with this? Answer: I don't think any of this debate changes the HSBC metrics one iota. Otherwise, I leave everyone else to prove why working moms are anathema.

Well, I think it's no good worrying about whether there's going to be a soft or hard landing at the minute, I just can't plain afford anything except waiting.

@SP,
I more or less agree with you. I find it hilarious how the RE industry shills are all saying, "see - prices haven't dropped this year, they're flat," (see King_Cobra's post) or "prices are now appreciating at a more normal rate," a soft landing. Whatever the reality is, how can anyone use the stats from just one year to conclude the trend for the next 3-5 years? Prices went up nationally at astounding rates; how can anyone think that they will turn on a dime and plummet? Talk about straw man argument.

SQT and Randy H,

Can't we all just get along?

Randy:

Working moms, when married to a working father, are anathema to single individuals not sharing housing with another employed individual, assuming all working individuals in a given comparison are earning reasonably equivalent amounts and housing costs are not subsidized by outside entities. Does that work?

I hope you weren't thinking I was suggesting "backing out mom's income", I was just curious as to whether it was included in the income calculation.

(No, it wasn't intended as a proof, just an attempt at removing assumptions.)

SQT is a stay-at-home Mom (like my wife) and thus believes that her financial and career sacrifice is benefitting her kids. Randy's wife is a hard working gal earning pots of $$$ which makes it easier for her family to thrive; I'm sure she's a wonderful mom when she comes home in the evening and she is providing a positive roll model as well. You two don't need to attack each other to defend your family's choices. It's all good.

SFWoman presents the example of bad absentee parenting which we can all agree is categorically bad: Uninvolved parents who underpower caregivers and teachers (and actually blame them for their failure to raise decent kids).

I think we can also all agree that families who need both parents to work and can barely afford the poor quality child care that their children receive are the true victims of the trend towards two wage families.

I don’t want to get too OT here, but I thought for sure there would be a mass exodus after 9/11 (I eventually left), but there really wasn’t. Yes NYC will fluctuate like the rest of the world, but I still think it has a drawing power that smashes the average persons ability to even understand it.

Uh... New York City is only the center of the world.

That said…being a stay at home mom IS a status symbol. Not many can afford it.

We've come full circle: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foot_binding

You are right. I’m sure Randy and his wife are excellent parents. I’m not saying that all working parents are bad, and I know there are a lot of hard working people out there doing the best they can.

But we may just delay having kids until one of us can stay home. Maybe me. :)

My comment wasn't tangential to the specific debate. We were talking about a fundamental shift, perhaps a paradigmatic shift as I claim, that occurred 35 years ago, at which time mom entered the work force. That changed home prices. I and others provided empirical proof to that end.

Then someone suggested that data was being wrongly applied, using personal experience as proof. I provided directly contradicting personal experience.

To that SQT then claimed "I think you might be letting personal experience get in the way of looking at the whole picture." Why didn't you also personally go after the first guy's "personal experience"?

Silly me, feeling singled out for special attention.

You're certainly free to participate. But shouldn't you expect a vigorous defense when you asymmetrically personalize and attack my position? Or are only *my* personal experiences biased, while yours and others aren't?

That said…being a stay at home mom IS a status symbol. Not many can afford it.

Why? You save on tax, daycare, luncheon, transportation, ...

Most people (including myself) just cannot get past the "gross income" psychology.

And stay-at-home dads can be great too!

King Cobra posted an article that said:

> The median price of a single-family home sold
> (in Las Vegas) during September was $310,000,
> unchanged from the same month a year ago,
> the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors
> reported Thursday.

Then SP Says:

> You can always compare to some point before
> the peak and claim that prices are flat - when
> in reality they are down from the peak and
> continuing to slide.

Wait until 2007 when the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors will be reporting:

"The median price of a single-family home sold in Las Vegas during September was $210,000, unchanged from the same month in 2004. The Realtors also mention that it is a great time to buy..."

Completely off topic but worth a peek:

http://www.jibjab.com/jokebox/jokebox/jibjab/id/203350/jokeid/54392

Just the other day I was wondering with a friend if we would see a return to 1930s mores. In other words the boomers will tell their kids they can’t go to college, but have to stay home and get a job to help support the family.

Why? You can just borrow your way out of that. :)

In addition, when I was growing up, practice was held at 3:30 PM after school. My father had to shorten the practices and move them to 5:30 PM because he no longer gets the parent volunteers he used to. The part-time or stay-at-home moms are so few nowadays.

I think realtors sell that as a benefit of the Bay Area - "with so many jobs, the Bay Area makes it easy for both parents to find jobs"

It's easy to spin negatives into positives.

Hey guys - isn't it time for a new thread? Preferably one where we get to attack the Casey Serins of the world and not each other?

Well, I haven't gone to his website, because I didn't want to generate any revenue for him from his ads. So I think I may have missed the fun - any highlights I would love to hear?

Over on Ben's blog somone has posted a memo from Hanovian or some such builder's name, got the spelling wrong I'm sure, but it sounds like hard times are ahead for them - if the memo is for real. I guess I want a big crash now, but even then, I'm probably not in a position to buy until maybe the middle of next year. By then, there will probably be new lending standards, which I worry will again mean that we are penalized for the FB's shenanigans.

Well, late to the party (or is it grudge match?) again...

I'm finding very little free time these days, bouncing between work and upacking/fixing up a new sad pathetic rental we just moved to, so I'll have to keep this very brief:

Randy,

Sorry, but I have to somewhat agree with SQT about your defensiveness. You and I agree far more often than not, but when we have had substantiative disagreements in the past (hedonics, CPI, soft landing probability, etc.), I've noticed a distinct tendency for you to misconstrue EARNEST DEBATE for PERSONAL ATTACK. We're all mature adults here, and I think we can --for the most part-- mentally separate attacking the position from attacking the person. I've also noticed you also tend to shift to playing 'innocent victim' or 'Mr. Reasonable' whenever someone points out this tendency (albeit not always tactfully).

SQT & Randy,

Ok, we don't agree about everything --that's perfectly normal. No two people, no matter how intelligent and respectful of one another, are ever in perfect agreement. Can we just make up and get back to attacking trolls, corrupt politicians & REIC shills instead? :-)

Where's a troll when you need one?

Should we have a cat fight thread? Perhaps some conflicts are healthy? Now that it is becoming silly (waste of time) to attack perma-bulls, perhaps we should attack each other?

But hey, I bow down to the King of Blog Etiquette. I’ll step out of the conversation so you can reign supreme as you like.

Nice. Calling me names makes it so much nicer.

Were you to go back and read the thread from the start you'd realize that half of that above isn't even directed to you at all.

Here's my admission. Lots of other regulars have had their point of meltdown. I still remember when SFWoman finally had it with "equal time" crap and started calling out extremist right ideologues.

Well, I've had it with a couple of folks here, of which SQT is definitely NOT one, who continually make sexist, elitist, racist, and parochial arguments, then making up data, fabricating statistics, and using their own personal experiences as evidence for everything they utter. I'm not going to sit by and do the nicey nice "I think we agree on X buy what about Y" crap anymore. I'm either going to call bullshit or spend my time pulling numbers somewhere else.

SQT, I am truly sorry that you jumped in right at that epiphanius moment. You clearly feel strongly about your position, and I appreciate that. But I'm not in the mood to equivocate right now either.

Where’s a troll when you need one?

Didn't you see the big one on the last thread?

And my apologies to everyone, mostly to SQT. And for the ill timing of my posts. I tend to have an out of date cache when I submit.

HARM, I do get defensive. I'm far from perfect. The problem is that there's a couple of folks here who know exactly how to get under my skin and they've escalated that of late.

Peter P,

But they didn't bite and post anything to attack.....perhaps I could be devil's advocate and start trolling for awhile

"Association of Used Car Salesman" Damn! LOL!

That would actually be another great additition for HARM-X Industries. We send you a "membership card" and when any realt-whore starts BS'ng you about how they're going to put in a new school just down the road or "they're addressing those issues" you just whips out your AUCS card and BAM! (Shuts 'em right up). I'm thinking $19.95 for a 100 and FREE SHIPPING on orders over $20!

any data to back that up or are you just spouting bull again?

With all indications pointing to the end of the boom, bulls are officially defeated. We should not waste energy trying to defeat something that has already been defeated.

Yep - let's see, now is a really good time to buy, before the mortgage industry tightens the lending standards - quick........, plus, some sellers are offering concessions and price reductions of over a $1, that's got to be good.

I'm also in Mountain View, we're special, prices never go down or only by a little bit, some people have reduced their prices because they've heard some of the negative articles, but now Moody's report suggests everything is rosey, so I better put a bid in now, before the prices start rising in the good schoold districts!

Wow.
Watching you guys fight is as exciting* as reading the 69-post blockbuster topic at Pigginton's, imaginatively named "Does Powayseller Post Too Much?"

*not.

you suggested we start a civil war. I tried to oblige by giving you a target.

More list wrestling. Sunomono wrestling.

If you’re going to resort to logical and polite argument in response, we’re not going to get far towards that war. So I preemptively surrender.

Damn...

By the way, that condo in Burlingame you keep posting is lovely. Let me know when you try to bid so I can get my entire clan to chip in, just so I can outbid you.

Too bad I cannot afford it. It is all yours.

"bulls are officially defeated"

How many people here wish they'd met Peter P years ago? Show of hands.

Peter, you have no idea how much of my life I've spent flogging a dead horse! Kind of like when a boxer continues through the ropes swinging at a guy that's already KO'd! Then wind up breaking your wrist hitting the trainer's stool. I swear.

I hope you all won't mind a new thread.

"10 Things I Hate About Big Boomer And/Or Casey Serin"

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=327

The problem is that there’s a couple of folks here who know exactly how to get under my skin and they’ve escalated that of late.

You've been living in Marin too long - this blog is more like San Francisco. You've got to ignore the tenderloin bums peeing into the garbage cans as well as the guy on the street corner screaming about socialism (oh wait, that's me).

@ LILLL: re Sherman Oaks POS with a '5' in front...

Is that north or south of Ventura Blvd?
Only place I've noticed with a 5 in front that's s.o.b is on Dickens - problem being that its almost literally underneath the 405....;-)

But, I have noticed the '8s' turning into '7s' on the flats sth of Ventura..conversely...1mill+ asking prices within spitting distance of the onramp to the 101..."easy access to freeways"...go figure.

The Blue Angels and any other aeronautical daredevil show should be banned for stupidity. Do people really need these things for entertainment? The fact that the Blue angels think they need to prove something actually diminishes my confidence in them. Dont show it, go do it.

You’ve been living in Marin too long - this blog is more like San Francisco. You’ve got to ignore the tenderloin bums peeing into the garbage cans as well as the guy on the street corner screaming about socialism (oh wait, that’s me).

That much is definitely true. I don't know about Marin sometimes. I had a job opp earlier this year in Chicago. Sometimes I really miss Chicago. If they could only add climate control it would be the best place in the US hands down.

NYC is still the center of the universe and London its capitol. 10 years ago 3 of us shared a studio at Lexington and 31st with drug dealers and hookers patrolling the area. Lots of hookers. Everyone wants a condo in NYC. But why buy when you can stay at the Mercer? Just back from Vegas and it seemed desolate but they keep putting up the towers. There is a project on the strip that makes WTC look like a sandbox.

@random user, shouldn't you really be back on craigslist looking for people to fuck your sister while you stand by with your camcorder?

Do you have a point you piece of fucking shit troll fuck or are you just here because your hand is tired from spanking your small fucking chinese cock?