patrick.net

I'll go to my old stumping ground Leesburg, Virginia. Possibly one of the top ten bubblebust sites. I'm seeing huge inventory increases compared to last year, listing prices are about 15-20% down from the peak last year.

The worst part for home sellers is that the builders are still building quickly in the area. There's plenty of weakness in all the sectors - condos, townhouses, smaller McMansions (2500 to 4000 sqft) and larger McMansions (4000+ sqft), gated communities, retirement communities - everything. So much for the zoning-locked theory peddled by agents and newspapers in the last two years.

Yesterday, I checked realtor.com to check for progress on a former neighbor's property - it started listing in August at 625,000 (the same price my parents listed their home in February of 2005), then dropped to 600,000. It is now listed at 525,000! I know the house was bought for about 470000 in late 2003.

Personally, I don't think this house will sell for 525K. It is sold as-is and there's tons of similarly priced homes of similar size and lot size nearby, in near pristine condition. I can very easily see this home selling for less than the 2003 purchase price.

Apparently the FDIC has just released a quarterly report that may be of interest, but the article did not give a link to it. Has anyone checked it out? Or got a link?

Thanks

Good stuff and a rent vs. own graph on the Marin RE Bubble Site:

http://marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/

Alas, in my area, while there are a lot more for sale signs, and houses are taking longer to sell, it seems like there is a big supply of suckers that are still willing to take the plunge! Houses are being reduced but normally by 5 -10% and then some of them go for way over asking! Mountain View and Los Altos, CA :-(

Looks like we'll be getting some new rental inventory soon...

http://tinyurl.com/kfdgv

"That's the solution! I'll just rent it out!"

YOY listings (using numbers from www.mlslistings.com):

Combined condo/SFH

Zip or City 2005 2006
95014 117 133
Sunnyvale 183 221
Mtn. View 96 117
S.C. County 4161 5527
Saratoga 156 147
95032 95 140
95033 76 83

SFH Only:
95126 56 59
95128 48 79

Thanks for all the great observations, keep them coming!

PS - I forgot to mention that the peak for the house I mentioned would be around $700,000 in June-August of 2005. Yup, a 30% drop and I see more coming. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving scumbag slumlord wannabe FB.

Alas, in my area, while there are a lot more for sale signs, and houses are taking longer to sell, it seems like there is a big supply of suckers that are still willing to take the plunge! Houses are being reduced but normally by 5 -10% and then some of them go for way over asking! Mountain View and Los Altos, CA :-(

I guess I'm competing with Claire! My observations are pretty similar. I'd also include Palo Alto into that mix.

eburbed and Claire,

I would describe the DC market in a similar manner this spring and early summer. SFHs and townhouses that were priced well, in good condition and good location were still moving for close to last year's prices. But now I'm seeing genuine downward price pressure.

There's plenty more to fall, but a broad 20% haircut in Northern Virginia and even more than 20% in Florida is a very good sign. Maybe you'll start to see real price cuts now that the rainy season is in.