patrick.net

Are we in any danger of lending restrictions being so tight that we might not be able to purchase new homes after the price drop?

Yes. But builder may be able to provide something (like "seller" financing or interest rate buy-down). Another reason why builders will be in a much better situation than regular homesellers.

It’s not too bad. The opera and the symphony keep the area fairly busy on performance nights. I’m off to there now- tonight it’s Wagner (must be well fed!).

Tristan and Isolde, no less - better bring your MRE's.

It's not the link I'm looking for but this is an interesting history article -
http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/js2001.htm

Are we in any danger of lending restrictions being so tight that we might not be able to purchase new homes after the price drop? What if too many lenders get culled and the rest of the industry gets gun shy?

Mr. Galt, perhaps as a newcomer your aren't privy to the following facts:

1) Land is no longer being manufactured
2) The Bay Area is just so gosh darned special that prices can never drop.
3) The rise in real estate costs are the by-product of a very robust diverse economy
4) Rich immigrants will save real estate.
5) Boomer will save real estate as they are so fat stacked that second and third homes are a no brainer.

We'll let you slide this time, but be forewarned of spreading vicious rumors of a real estate decline. Remember houses might drop in cost but not value.

-------------------------
Sarcasm off

J Galt,

Yes, that is refrencing the call. It was not however, reneging. When I read this article originally I went to the treasury web site and read the posting for the call. The reality, dispite misperception, is that treasuries ARE callable. It was not reneging!

Paul

Are we in any danger of lending restrictions being so tight that we might not be able to purchase new homes after the price drop?

Only if you're a former FB.

What if too many lenders get culled and the rest of the industry gets gun shy?

Then the house prices will have to drop some more!

This one is good - look at the top right corner of the page:

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/

You need to take the emotion out of it. If a bond has a callable feature, which these have, then you get exactly the deal you bargain for. Just like someone taking an ARM and saying they didn't know the rate would go up.

Well, nothing in life is really guaranteed, but you know what I mean…

You are guaranteed your eventual death and to be charged tax while you are still alive.

HARM,

I was driving tonight and I KNOW the bumper sticker for me.

"I may rent my house but I OWN this car"

Astrid,

I could display that sticker with honesty. Any idea where I could get one?

Paul

Ok - let me get this straight!

The housing bubble was caused by the fall of the Berlin Wall
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15198805/

And the bust was caused by Iraq and Katrina
http://tinyurl.com/zesjc

My God, what's next, they will say it was caused by the answer on a Magic 8 ball!

So what does the North Korea Nuke do?

I'm just so relived that housing prices have nothing to do with interest rates, taxes and people's earnings!

Paul,

I thought that up myself :-) Now I think "house" should be changed to "home" to “I may rent my home but I OWN this car”

Hopefully HARM and Patrick K will also like this idea

I think this sticker works because it's a little confrontational but not too confrontational. We're identifying ourselves rather than calling other people names. Furthermore, it mocks the "homeowners" who have zero equity in their house and drive leased vehicles.

I agree with "home". It happens right now we are in an apt. However, I was discussing with my boss how one can rent a million dollar house for just a bit more than we pay for our 3 bedroom so at some point I may do that if it takes sometime for prices to fall. Either way, house or apt., home says it all!

Any idea why my previous post starting with
Ok - let me get this straight!" says "Your comment is awaiting moderation. " Do you see it?

Thanks.

Oh man, where’s Randy when you need him? Casey’s newest scheme is a “raffle.” You buy tickets for $50 or $100 bucks a pop and he raffles off his house.

Huh? Is this legal?

I am a believer in the bubble. I know it exists and I do think RE will revert to the mean inflation adjusted price for the last 100 years. Here is my problem. We have to live our lives.

-I live in a dump that costs me about 1/15th of my gross income.
-I am young, 26 years old, and will start a family soon.
-I work in an Industry with the best job security (Power Plant)
-I need a more suitable place to raise a family but don’t want to get screwed/burned
-I have a 790 FICO score but little cash on hand for downpayment (Student loans eat me alive but are almost gone)

I may not have the luxury of waiting for the collapse to occur. Some doom and gloom people think this could unwind in weeks rather than years. I look at the Japanese collapse and I am convinced that the true collapse will be a YOY slide lasting 2 decades.

I found some homes that are within my budget, but I would become a slave to the payments. Does anyone here think the RE builders would be willing to drop the price by 25% inorder to get me to sign for an empty home? Will the builders finance me at 3% interest rate rather drop the price?

I hate the way people turned the RE market in to a derivatives game!

That’s a question a lot of people are asking right now on his blog. I thought Randy would be a good go-to-guy since he’s so knowledgable about stuff. Me? I’m too lazy to look it up.

Perhaps Astrid can offer some insight.

My reaction was more along the lines of how many tickets does this guy think he can sell?

But what is he trying to raffle? A debt balance? A cash lumpsum for carrying negative equity?

What are the tax implications for this type of transactions?

I would like to know the identity of Casey's "real estate attorney". Either Casey had another "your lips say no but my heart says yes" moment or this *attorney* will soon see his liability insurance skyrocket.

-I live in a dump that costs me about 1/15th of my gross income.
-I am young, 26 years old, and will start a family soon.
-I work in an Industry with the best job security (Power Plant)
-I need a more suitable place to raise a family but don’t want to get screwed/burned
-I have a 790 FICO score but little cash on hand for downpayment (Student loans eat me alive but are almost gone)

Try renting a "luxury" apartment that costs you 1/6 of your gross income then. :)

I think currently, for mortgage purpose, a 790 FICO is not much better than 690 FICO. Correct me if I am wrong.

If you can comfortably afford to buy a residence that you intend to live in for 7 - 10 years, you may consider buying. You may have to be prepared to "being underwater" for a while.

Shop around some new home communities and see what are the deals.

I would like to know the identity of Casey’s “real estate attorney”. Either Casey had another “your lips say no but my heart says yes” moment or this *attorney* will soon see his liability insurance skyrocket.

Does he have one? My heart says I must eat soon.

I'm not familiar with California law so I can't give an off the cuff answer. If no authoritative answers comes in by tomorrow, I'll poke around and let you know what I can find.

My initial sense that this is most likely to be an illegal activity and I don't think Casey is allowed to conduct a lottery even if he had his lenders' express permission.

"How can I make sure people take me seriously?"

As someone already mentioned, he could start by not calling people who disagree with his happy happy joy joy world view "haters."

thenuttyneutron:

This doesn't help your situation but I have thought alot about the vol. in prices we are all dealing with these days. If I were to return to school for a Doctorate in Economics my thesis would be about how the FRB and other central banks have transfered vol. from the financial markets to the real markets.

For example the Dow and S&P do very little these days with implied option vols running near historic lows. Meanwhile, someone pays 1M for a house and next year it's worth 800k or 850k if they can even sell. One month gas is $4 the next it is $3. What is going on in these markets and what causes it? If you think back in history, it was the financial / curency markets that went up and down in a crazy fashion and the prices for consumers goods that were relatively stable. We can talk inflation or lack of reporting it but there is no way prices in the real economy have ever been this volitilie while the financial markets have been so docile.

Just my two cents!

Paul

I think Casey is going to make for a fabulous dissertation for an abnormal psych student somewhere.

I have no idea.

If I have to guess, I would say more of the same!

The odds of winning the $500,000 model home at $50 per ticket:

1 ticket at $50: 1 in 10,000
10 tickets at $500: 1 in 1,000
100 tickets at $5,000: 1 in 100

Our friend Casey clearly has no understanding of simple probability. He's basing the odds of winning on the cost he hopes to recoup for his $500k house, rather than on the total # of tickets sold. What a doofus!

Our friend Casey clearly has no understanding of simple probability. He’s basing the odds of winning on the cost he hopes to recoup for his $500k house, rather than on the total # of tickets sold. What a doofus!

He said he will return money if not enough tickets are sold. Well, IF he gets more than 10000 tickets sold... :)

IF hell freezes over...

Didn't he say he is already down to his last couple hundred dollars? How would someone in that position do anything, even buy a pack of ramen for sustenance?

Didn’t he say he is already down to his last couple hundred dollars? How would someone in that position do anything, even buy a pack of ramen for sustenance?

A pack of ramen, even premium one, is at most $5. No toro for him though. :)

We are coming up with new ideas for flavored Almonds and Pistachios, do you have any suggestions?

Hmmm... you must have garlic flavor already, right?

How about parmesan and chili flakes? I have no idea how flavors are infused though.

How about tea? Not necessarily green tea.

As long as someone’s paying the taxes though it might work.

What if the squatter pays the tax?

Just a quick joke to cheer Casey up on his way to prison.

Dude is going to prison for the first time and he's plenty nervous about his prospective "cell mate". Sure enough the guard stops by the cell with the biggest meanest looking 'con' in the joint. Guard says, "Prisoner 635014, you may enter your cell!"

Dude goes in and arranges his meager possesions on the top bunk.

Cell mate says in a very deep voice, "In my cell we like to play a little game called "house".

Dude (nervously says) Uh, o.k how do we play? (fearing the worst).

Cell mate says "Well since you're new here I'll let you pick". "Do you want to be the mommy or the daddy?"

Dude is totally relieved and eagerly shares that he'd like to be the "daddy!"

Cell mate says, "Good, now get over here and s@ck mommy's d@ck!"

J Galt,

Do you guys have a genuine Buffalo flavored almond or pistachio? My boyfriend is also always on the look out for ultra hot sinus clearing scotch bonnet flavored nuts. Also, not sure if curry flavoring would work. The Chinese have a very mild curry that would probably taste very good (not spicy at all, very aromatic and a little sweet). Another one of personal interest to me would be rose water flavored almonds or pistachios. I know the flavor is pretty harmonious in baclavas, and I'd be interested to try a rose flavored almond (maybe a sweet rose or jasmine flavored candy shell coating the almond?)

Coconut flavored nuts would also be nice, especially combined with curry spices.

"Casey’s problems aren’t as grave as he imagines. All he needs to do is win a couple of nobel prizes in the next few weeks and his financial woes are gone."

Maybe he could win a couple McArthur foundation genius grants too.

I have to give credit where credit is due, his suggestion of going on Oprah takes top prize.

Other ideas:

Learn Arabic and become a warzone interpreter in Iraq at upwards of $200K/year

Go join the military to stop foreclosure (hey, real estate always goes up and by the time he's back from Iraq sans a leg, appreciation will bail him out)

Drug muling, already suggested on the blog

Hustling and pimping (legally!) in Nevada

blow the rest of money on lottery tickets and WIN!

buy huge life insurance on family members and then, just his luck, have them die mysteriously in a manner that doesn't implicate him

Win world championship poker

...

No, it's not hopeless at all.

his = DS's

Sorry I missed the fun :)

Thanks Paul for all the info. I thought I remembered a call of US Gov't bonds, but I didn't recall the specifics.

As to Casey, I'll go look at what that piece of work is up to now. IANAL, so I don't know if raffling off his debt is legal, but it sure smells bad.