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Randy H
2006 Oct 24, 7:18am
That chart fits exactly with my sticky model. Call it denial, psychology, irrationality, or stickiness. It's all the same thing. Uneven movements downwards.
Randy H
2006 Oct 24, 7:19am
Thanks everyone for your comments on this thread. Not one post had to be moderated or deleted, although CR tested our patience. This thread will now be closed.
HARM and allah,
RE: MBS's, you guys suggest one resolution is increased compensation for the increasing risk of these products. A more catastrophic yet plausible outcome seems to be the collapse of more than a few hedge funds, or even old-school mutual funds and other investment vehicles due to massive mortgage defaults leading to massive loss in MBS valuations. Possible?
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Plateau, pause, recovery, "bear trap"? Maybe it's just a good, old fashioned, "dead cat bounce".
The technical reasons usually given for such false recoveries in equity markets have to do with things like short interest, "overbought/oversold" strength conditions, and speculative self-fulfilling prophecy. But everyone knows (except some desperate realtor who write newsletters in SFWoman's neighborhood), the housing market is not the stock market.
The question is, why do you think a "dead cat bounce" could/would/will/is happening in residential real estate?
--Randy H
#housing