patrick.net

Peter P,

Claim you were born somewhere in Asia and all will be forgiven.

Pending home sales for September 06 are down:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/01/real_estate/pending_home_sales/index.htm?postversion=2006110110

Claim you were born somewhere in Asia and all will be forgiven.

Didn't I do that already?

I have an aversion to activities that lack risks or dangers. It’s just me.

So you are a risk seeker. What is your birth month/day?

Not til now.

Okay, you're forgiven. Congrats!

@Peter P

CG/GC is the only person I've banned. I continue to believe (s)he is a bona fide Troll, but that is just my opinion. If Peter P and either HARM or SQT want to unban, (s)he should be unbanned. In fairness, CG/GC has probably done less Trolling in the past half year than some others' running commentaries purely designed to offend various regulars.

I guess we’re even now.

Touche. Your point is well taken, sir.

Peter, I will PM you.

Huh?

If Peter P and either HARM or SQT want to unban, (s)he should be unbanned.

I will delegate judgement to others.

This is just what is scary about trying to figure out how to wait out this housing bubble collapse:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/11/13/8393160/index.htm?postversion=2006110111

"Can the economy survive the housing bust?"

Real estate downturns have a way of leading to recessions and stock market slumps. So far the damage has been limited, but the numbers keep getting worse, says Fortune's Jon Birger.

The article is not so bad considering it's MSM, but this quote is ridiculous:

"The effects of the housing correction will be entirely contained within the housing sector," says Mike Englund, chief economist of Action Economics.

Makes me think who is relying on the economic forecasts from those bozos.

CG/GC is the only person I’ve banned.

How about banning ConfusedRenter?

How about banning ConfusedRenter?

I think spam is a bigger threat now.

My opinion on CR is that (s)he is really MP/FR. If so, the ban has been decided and should be updated.

But I seem to recall the "vote" to ban failed.

Randy H,

True, many of us have agonized over the "hold back/buy down" dilemma and as you suggest timing this whole matter can drive one self quite insane! Since this is really a personal decision I don't want to sway people one way or the other.

Where I'm concerned, I lean toward being a little 'cash fat' and having the option to implement that toward incrementally paying down/off the mortgage early yet having it liquid gauging that on a monthly basis. It really is going to be that "day to day".

Allah

There are plenty of Economists with negative sentiment/predictions. A part of the blame goes to the media which doesn't usually give these guys a platform. Or, when they do, they pick the worst negative economist and put him/her against a really slick positive one.

There's even one extremely negative economist who's a Federal Reserve Governor right now, and keeps dissenting on all the decisions.

But I seem to recall the “vote” to ban failed.

Actually, I vote to unabn MP/FR. What damage can they do? The idea of perpetual 20%/yr housing appreciation is getting funnier every day.

Actually, I vote to unabn MP/FR. What damage can they do?

The added benefit is that it results in more frequent visits by Surfer-X.

I propose an open arm policy for CR/MP/FR and GC.

Current threats:

1. Boredom
2. Beating dead horses
3. Spam

RE: CR, good points. It's good to have a resident realtwhore to kick around once in a while (no offense, George).

The added benefit is that it results in more frequent visits by Surfer-X.

Yes. Let's focus the IP banning from spambots and jukubots.

2. Beating dead horses

Didn't we vote on a prop related to that a few years back?

I propose more home design and architecture discussions. Socketsite is doing a pretty good job at that currently.

I do one trade every 2-3 months. All my shorts have been successful. Of course, this does not say anything. But we shall see how this short trade pans out.

Yeah, all of my trades have been successful too - for either me or the other party.

Don't forget folks, this is the genius urging that Connor kid to buy Gold at $730...

For the record, I've been long CVX and XOM for sometime. Dividends... yum. YHOO... um....

House downpayment in Money Markets, laddered CDs and I-bonds. Bah Humbug. I'm sick of being beat upon by the loose money policy, but at least most of us have jobs.

Labor crunch coming. More inflation?

http://economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8079134

skibum,

I'm not in the habit of defending the positions taken by economists or analysts but when we think about it I believe it is very plausible.

True, 2/3rds of our economy is consumer driven but there are things we can buy besides hummers and big screens with MEW! If everyone elected to "right-size" their residence and utterly abandoned McAlbatrosses en' masse it's lenders, builders and suppliers that would be the bagholders, not Oracle and Nike!

There are things in this country that don't correlate with housing. Like I say, housing has for many years been a legitimate core industry. They weren't satisfied with that and wanted to become THE ONLY industry with everything else having only a supporting role! We've contorted lending standards, tax laws, everything to accommodate and it didn't work.

Time for a new growth engine.

Let's convert McAlbatrosses into condos!

@David Jackson,

Do you buy at Best Buy or Target or Walmart?

[Hint: Most of thier stuff is NOT made in the US]

Nothing wrong with owning companies that do operational hedging. I own all these through indices. What I am talking about is then adding in your own additional hedging.

Example: Best Buy purchases lots of stuff in JPYs. They hedge the hell out of their currency flows with techniques like transfer pricing. If I then go ahead and hedge the USD/JPY rate, what is the result?

[Hint: Any hedging in excess of the delta hedge ratio will reduce the reward/risk ratio]

Let’s convert them to factories!

I do not have much faith in manufacturing.

re: commodity investments. I lost a few ducats on oil stocks a year ago but cut my losses quickly. lesson learned. the volatility of those type of stocks makes it feel more like gambling than anything else. i am reminded of the Sicilian in Princess Bride.

There are things in this country that don’t correlate with housing. Like I say, housing has for many years been a legitimate core industry.
...
Time for a new growth engine.

@DinOR,

The problem is, how can the US make yet another smooth transition to another growth engine, as the housing industry is already clearly in the midst of tanking? Does Benny B have any ideas? Besides, I think most economists you read about are underestimating the reach of the REIC boom's effect on the overall economy. Construction materials and jobs, finance and mtg industry jobs, realtor jobs, home furnishings, and it goes on and on.

People here who'd encourage gambling on commodities, usually Gold, with their life savings are the equivalent to the jackasses who yell "jump" up to someone standing out on the ledge.

I'm seriously doubting America will turn it's back on McMansions in one fell swoop but I hope we can agree the peak of their popularity has come and gone?

The REIC and the country have taken this whole thing as far as it will go and then some. Unless we're willing to move the cap. gains exemption to 500K for singles and 1mil for couples along with making the 50 year mortgage "the standard" we're going to have to look else where for growth!

That's what's so upsetting for me. So much of the debate has been structured around "what can we do to get housing back on track?" Lower rates? (always first option) give away vacations? BMW's?

Let it go for crissakes!

People here who’d encourage gambling on commodities, usually Gold, with their life savings are the equivalent to the jackasses who yell “jump” up to someone standing out on the ledge.

The concept of risk capital (play money) is important.

skibum,

Well, that's a good point. Seldom do growth engines surrender without a fight (railroads etc.) and seldom is it "smooth".

The reason I guess it's easy for me to be dismissive about what becomes of those employed by the REIC is that so many of them are migratory anyway! I'd guess at one time 1/4 to 1/3 of the MB's were at one time stockbrokers! Construction workers are so migratory they go from state to state and job to job (and often fit the profile of serial killers btw). No, I'm not kidding.

There's a certain percentage of our population that always follows whatever is "hot". It's always been that way. Most will adapt, some won't and class guys like George will tough it out. It seems like right now we're more worried about it than they are.

Share your opinions on bannings/unbannings:

Unbanning Trolls: A town hall discussion (next thread)

SF Woman

Sounds like a good book - my current problem is not enough storage - I am sure the clutter in our house is a bad influence on my kids.

OT - has anyone else noticed there is a thin picking of houses to rent in Mountain View/Los Altos?

I was hoping FB's would be putting houses up for rent, but it doesn't seem to be the case in this area. I was thinking this would be an indicator of the state of the market and FB's in the area.

Peter P. you might enjoy the book.

Thanks. I will take a look. :)

my current problem is not enough storage

Try donating some stuff away. It may help.

I do think that storage space is important.

The REIC and the country have taken this whole thing as far as it will go and then some.

I had thought so too, but apparently not:

Cash-out refinancing hits peak
Homeowners are tapping their equity at highest rate in 16 years

I meant to add, what do other people observe in their areas - i.e. houses for sale vs. houses for rent - numbers increasing /decreasing?

One problem we may all have to look out for - which I didn't realize is (but you may all know already) that in order to view a house that is occupied by a renter, you have to put an offer in first. Or so someone told me.

Is that why a lot of people get kicked out of their rental before it is sold?

One problem we may all have to look out for - which I didn’t realize is (but you may all know already) that in order to view a house that is occupied by a renter, you have to put an offer in first. Or so someone told me.

Is that why a lot of people get kicked out of their rental before it is sold?

I would imagine its up to the landlord/seller. The reality is that it's easier to sell a empty (staged) house than one with "lowly" renters - at least that's what I would iamgine.