patrick.net

@eburbed,

That was precisely my point about the Dems being better off LOSING this time. Pyrrhic victory.

Looks like Measure D and E got defeated by NMBYists. :(

Fortunately, Measure A got voted down too.

That was precisely my point about the Dems being better off LOSING this time. Pyrrhic victory.

I guess that's why we're not in politics. Too cynical.

All I know is that I hope the Rapture doesn’t happen soon - I haven’t had time to shop for my Rapture season clothes yet.

Ack. Flashbacks to my childhood. We had a special session in Jr. High where local ministers came in to talk to us about the evils of Rock & Roll and Dungeons & Dragons. Apparently owning a 20-sided-die or a Red-Star covered Rush album (2112 anyone?) invalidated my Rapture bus ticket.

Well let's hope that somehow the Dems winning hastens their passage to the spaceship in the tail of Hale-Bopp or whatever. With the dramatically decreased demand for housing in this country with those of us (some thankfully) left behind, we should all be able to by 2 or 3 homes and a couple of nice European (most of them will stay behind too, as I understand it) sedans to boot.

(and for those lacking the proper neural pathways to recognize the patterns of sarcasm: too bad)

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed it.

Huh?

One day just when I was telling my wife that they should build condos in Rancho San Antonio some green dude tried to get us to support an urban boundary initiative.

I think they should even build condos inside Yosemite. A Nature-themed community. Excellent.

Oh come on guys. Nobody is going to blame Dem's for anything (other than elected Rep's) trying to deflect blame. Let's show a little faith here. This has been described as a "backward looking" election and obviously many voted no doubt to punish Rep's.

If ever there was a time when someone could claim "but we inherited this mess" this would be it. GOP won't be able to distance themselves from the debacle by claiming their hands were tied and unable to "finish the job". Who would buy that. They were afforded several years to figure this out.

On the other hand Dem's have had 12 years to figure out what their brand of leadership would look like so they need to realize they were elected out of protest and if they fail to deliver will be right back in the minority. But I don't want to hear any of this "they were set up to fail" stuff. What better an opportunity? They weren't ushered in b/c the people were bored w/peace. These (very obviously) are emotionally charged times. They just need to capitalize on it correctly. GOP, stupid f*ckers.

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed it.

Huh?

I totally botched that comment. Take 2:

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed No on Measure A.

DinOR,

I do respect your opinions - oh here comes the however - however, I think 'outsmarted' is too simple, and it's not quite my view. I won't test your patience with Perle's expectations of a WWII Parisian welcome in Baghdad or the much-too-frequently cited carrier-top victory party. What seems to me far more revealing is the benighted prosecution of the conflict itself and the veil of broadly anti-Muslim rhetoric emanating from Washington. These reflect a real failure of competence and no sense whatever of consequences.

Can you possibly doubt our tactics of the past several years have served to radicalize moderates in the Muslim community worldwide? Was that not considered, was it disbelieved, or did it not matter? Or do you suggest that we hadn't the expertise available to anticipate many or even most of the errors of judgment which have resulted in all this suffering and consequent anger? If so then perhaps we really must disagree. I don't think we were outsmarted - we outdumbed them.

As the economic expansion post 9/11 has been a important part of the dissections carried out on this board, and does not reflect to our credit, I am surprised you bring it up in this context. I would characterise it as an ill-constructed recovery.

But pace DinOR. You posts are a pleasure, and I'm sure I don't know what launched me on this rant other than the frustration we all share.

Dinor,

Now that the Dem’s are going to have their way everyone will like us! WTF.

Don't underestimate the value of new blood at the helm of a nation. Gorby, Yeltsin, Putin... they were all Tsars of one kind or another, but they were a far cry in touchy-feely-land from the old soviet leaders. Russians are no longer perceived as the boogy-men they were in the 80s.

In case you haven't traveled or spoken to anyone outside of the US, we're perceived as the bullying bad guys now. Right or wrong, getting rid of the face foreigners hate two years from now will improve our international Rep. The current perception that the American people have a bone to pick with Bush will improve the goodwill towards our nation over the next two years.

@ Randy,

Rush and D+D flashbacks in the same sentence? They sell the good stuff in Marin. Seriously, D+D was solid analytical training for the Gen-X crowd in Junior High.

If ever there was a time when someone could claim “but we inherited this mess” this would be it. GOP won’t be able to distance themselves from the debacle by claiming their hands were tied and unable to “finish the job”. Who would buy that. They were afforded several years to figure this out.

DinOR, on Iraq (and corruption scandals) I completely agree. The REIC-driven economy is a completely different story.

Polls still show that many people --perhaps even a majority-- still haven't even HEARD of the concept of "housing bubble", much less believe one exists. When they DO learn about it (probably when they get their first ARM reset notice in the mail within the next 2-3 years), who are they likely to blame? The party which (by then) will have long since been voted out of power, or the current incumbents? Not saying the Dems don't deserve their fair share of blame on blame in this mess too, but still...

If I were a GOP "loser", I'd be feeling pretty good about my prospects in '08 right now. :-)

Oh I say - DinOR - I think I forgot to charge my irony sensor.

I see we're on the same page on recovery. Cheeesh.

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed No on Measure A.

RE professionals are not your enemy. Environmentalists are.

Regarding the general unawareness of the bubble...

Had lunch today with an old friend - MIT/Macroeconomics - who, while not really crediting the existence of such a thing, observed that if it did exist it was of no concern as he had no intention or need to sell, nor any inclination to dip into equity.

People believe they will not be affected at all.

How's the turnout compared to 2002? My guess: high turnout = turn the bums out, low turnout = unenergized conservative electorate (who'll be more than happy to jump back in in 2008 with their "I told you so")

M. Cote,

With all due respect, the national GOP were total cave trolls.

Are we onto some sort of economic version of spring to summer, 1939?

The Dems rolled a 12 with 2d6 die and scored +30 hit points.

...and a THAC0 of 19. Old skool.

I expect you're right, SP.

I did suggest to him that he check his exposure to derivatives. But he's the one with the credentials, after all.

Perhaps I'm more wary than conditions warrant, but then perhaps not.

The Dems rolled a 12 with 2d6 die and scored +30 hit points.

If the senate falls... 20 on d20 => double damage.

I say that I'm impressed Cote. You must have eavesdropped a fair amount on the kids in the basement... unless you joined them. ;-)

It's typical of me that I would fall into a crowd where playing D&D is actually considered cool...

If he doesn’t intend to participate in a transaction, has no exposure to adjustable rate risk and has no need to ‘liberate’ equity soon - then he is unlikely to feel a direct and adverse impact.

Just because you haven't "liberated" any equity nor are directly employed in the REIC does not necessarily mean you are immune to the macroeconomic consequences of others' folly.

I still have vivid, not-so-fond memories of the last RE bubble and S&L/RTC implosion, which (in part) spawned the recession of the early 90s. In 1991, I was a fresh college grad with minimal theoretical knowledge of credit/asset bubbles and zero personal experience. I had never bought nor sold RE of any kind, nor was I seeking employment in a related field. And yet, the only jobs being offered at that time paid pretty much close to minimum wage. And I was "lucky" to get even that. It wasn't until the late 90s that I began earning enough money to start repaying my student loans, much less "living large & stepping easy".

Even those who believe their jobs are relatively recession-proof, or that they are "indispensible" may soon be in for a rude awakening.

I suppose there will be recession proof jobs - bankruptcy attorney, public auctioneer, repo men, tenured macroeconomics professors...

Astrid,

That was funny. I actually caught myself wondering if Florida's next RE boom would be based on outlanders coming here to file bankruptcy...

M. Cote,

Well, Pelosi is a bit more in tune with the mainstream than Dick Gephart. As it is, the won't be much forthcoming cooperation from the slightly weakened cave trolls, so attack attack attack might be the best use of the next 2 years.

That, and getting the hell out of Iraq, NOW!

PS - I really don't think the Dems are ready for another FDResque mandate. I think you're giving the national Dems waaaaaay too much credit. In my humble opinion, this election has significantly reduced Dems' chance at a lasting legacy in their current form.

She’s… she’s… Boxer/Feinstein with a three digit IQ.

That puts her at 100 (average) at worst and 999 (super-genius) at best. Not too bad ;-) .

Muggy,

I'm glad they didn't go with "Mediterrean style villa"...

Denial went on unchecked for 6 years but yesterday it collapsed in the political arena. Who knows, one day denial might collapse in the realm of California real estate prices.

Robert C,

Hey! Great having you back!

Okay... so maybe it's the lesser of two evils now. The Dems are in the spotlight and they've talked some big changes so let's see if they can put our money where their mouths are. At least W got an ass whoopin and that made me smile. If we can get out of Iraq that's a good start and with that asswipe Rummy out of the way it might happen.

M. Cote,

"No, it only puts Boxer/Feinstein, at best, in double digits. "

Back up your insults. You're treading awfully close to "all cheese is smelly" territory.

"Pelosi is so leftist she’s have to stand tippy toe to catch a glimpse of liberal on the far right hoizon.

Your idea of moderacy is not exactly reflective of the electorate, esp. the blue state electorates. I don't think anybody in the Democratic party is planning to roll out 80% marginal income taxes or putting people in communes.

Hopefully Carl Rove will resign next. Those yahoos who gave him bad advise and kept things from him and it effected policy need to go. Senate investigative hearing to follow especially war policy. I can't wait for all the dirt to come out..

SP Says:
DS said:
Burma’s regime still survives because foreign companies are still willing to invest in Burma.

SP

well, singapore is burmas's largest investor. other investors include japan, US, UK, canada, france, malaysia, thailand, australia and the netherlands mostly in the form of trans-national oil companies. oh, there's that 'oil' word again.

American firms include Amoco, Texaco, Unocal, Tyndall and Apache. I couldn't say if China has gotten involved in that country lately.

For example:

"The nine multinational oil companies that signed the first contracts with the SLORC in 1989 included Amoco (United States), Unocal (United States), Idemitsu (Japan), Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands/United Kingdom), Yukong Oil (South Korea), Broken Hill Petroleum (Australia), Petro Canada (Canada), Croft Exploration (United Kingdom) and Kirkland Resources (United Kingdom). These firms were reported to have paid between $5 million and $8 million each in signing bonuses to the Burmese regime.

Since 1989, a number of other companies have also signed contracts with the SLORC. These include Premier Oil (United Kingdom), Nippon Oil Exploration (Japan), ELF (France), Petronas (Malaysia), and most recently International Petroleum Corp. (Canada), Apache Oil (United States), Tyndall International (United States) and Texaco (United States).

Human rights groups argue that oil development has direct impacts on the people of Burma. A Green November 32 statement notes, "recent reports from inside Burma indicate that human rights violations are being perpetrated by the SLORC army in association with the oil companies' planned and actual activities. Genocidal offensives are being carried out as part of the junta's efforts to clear potential oil bearing areas of their indigenous inhabitants. ... Tens of thousands of Burmese people are being forced to labor on roads for less than subsistence wages for the benefit of the oil multinationals and the junta."

But as a Green November 32 statement explains, "When a multinational oil company with the financial and political influence of Texaco invests in a country like Burma, it makes it substantially more difficult toeffectively pressure a government led by someone like George Bush ... into applying the sanctions that have been repeatedly and loudly called for. Obviously sanctions would not be good for those U.S. oil companies - Texaco, Amoco, Unocal, Tyndall, and Apache - that have invested so many millions of dollars in their relationship with the SLORC regime."

Multinational oil development remains key to the SLORC's expansion of the military, and control over the people of Burma. Without foreign exchange from oil investments, the regime would be much more dependent on foreign aid, which is often tied to political reforms.

Until some form of international trade or investment sanctions are passed by the United Nations or individual countries such as the United States, however, multinational oil companies will continue to fuel Burma's military machine."
TNCs at work in Burma

so what do you know, SP?

@DinOR and HARM

Thanks for the replies and links about refi's. I will be checking them out later.

Sorry for the delay in the reply - had to stop blogging to look after the kids - ones now asleep, the other ones doing an after school activity and the dinner is in the oven - so I'm free to catch up.

I've come to the conclusion that blogging is detrimental to family life if one is not careful! What will I do once the housing market has really crashed and I've bought a house? Mind you, the rate it's going here I may be priced out forever, or it could be quite a few years before I buy.

Can't comment on politics - not allowed to vote. Besides aren't the two parties right and far right? :-)

He was a poet. You’re not. Besides, the knee-jerk socia1ism get a bit tiring.

and the knee-jerk market fundamentalism and imperialistic apologetics doesn’t? and the hypocritical whinging about house prices while trading shares like mad and putting down anyone beneath my social stratum as not deserving of any assistance and lucky not to get the death penalty? (despite the fact that is is definitely not 'knee-jerk')

i promise to slow down and capitalise more often… since it seems to make all the difference…

Just so it is clear, I am not objecting on any moral grounds to the Chinese pursuit of their own self interest. I am merely entertaining myself for a while by turning over a rock that the leftists usually are hesitant to touch.

i'm no fan of the chinese govt or their rotten attempt at implementing a socia1ist state that breaks so many ethical rules. another reality today tho is that the chinese are putting infrastructure into places like africa in a way that the west has never done (in exchange for commodities). it remains to be seen what the next few decades will hold for the world re the rise of china. increasing industrialisation and prosperity seems to bring about fundamental changes in social structures and understandings -- e.g. heightened individualism and expectations. will china's human rights record improve as material conditions improve? will the conditions of 'satellite' countries like burma be lifted by the tide? remember that things weren't so hot for the average worker in the west 100 years ago. 100 years ago atrocities were being committed by leopold III of belgium in the congo in the interests of colonialism...

and nor am i a fan of the US directions and assumptions of entitlement of pre-eminence and the neocon PNAC project of 'world strategic dominance' or whatever it was...

oops, sorry, caps next time...
atleastiusethespacebaricouldhavebeeneconomisingtheretoo

Your McMansion has quartz counter tops. I didn’t know such a thing existed. Must be whoppin’ large quartz crystals.

Is it Zodiaq by DuPont? It is now my favorite.

Re:
DS,
Re: DS

Don’t forget he’s an aussie. When he says “you”, he’s rejecting his own government’s troop contribution (which was important politically but negligible militarily).

let's not go there. some 96% of troops in iraq are US, 6% are british, and the remaining 2% are from the rag-tag coalition of the coerced and arm-twisted unwilling. let's not forget it was the neocons who pressured other countries into participating against UN agreement. tony blair has paid for his decision to go along quite dearly with the population. john howard certainly never put the question to referendum or popular vote -- the outcome would have been very different in a true democracy. however, the average australian joe sixpack is fairly indifferent about iraq, simply because 1) they're quite stupid, self-interested and apathetic, and more worried about their mortgage, and 2) very few troops have been committed, there have been virtually no casualities, and they are crack SAS troops for the most part. john howard clearly isn't that stupid -- he keeps his strategic allies happy, gives the SAS a run in real battle conditions, and minimises collateral damage at the same time. however, having said that, there were huge public protests in britain, and huge protests in australia. if anything, this war has shown the power of propaganda and the extent to which we are living in a 1984-style society. further, other parties here have not been cheerleaders for the war in anything like the way so many US Dems, afraid of unpopularity, were pro-war. the argument in the US has been deliberately contained in the MSM and political debate to niceties on how it should have been conducted rather than analysing motives and determining whether it was the right thing to do at all. i'm amazed at the newsfeeds i see. very colonial victorian indeed...

and the knee-jerk market fundamentalism and imperialistic apologetics doesn’t?

Actually, not to me. ; )

and the hypocritical whinging about house prices while trading shares like mad and putting down anyone beneath my social stratum as not deserving of any assistance and lucky not to get the death penalty? (despite the fact that is is definitely not ‘knee-jerk’)

Can you exagerrate any more than you already are?