patrick.net

SFWoman said:
if we are ever going to go back to Afganistan and eliminate the Taliban and terrorist camps there for once and for all.

Fat chance (by the way, the largest camps are actually across the border in Pakistan). There is a strong likelihood that by 2008, Afghanistan will be in full-blown civil war. The most likely outcome of that war will be a reconstituted Taliban retaking Kabul. The US has lost interest in the Unocal pipeline through Aghanitan-Balochistan, and is more likely to route Turkmen oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline. As a result, the US priority in Afghanistan has changed significantly. We no longer care about stabilizing it for a pipeline, we just care enough to keep them from being a direct threat to US interests.

SP

I strongly believe that welfare keeps the poor poor.
The only way to eliminate poverty is to eliminate welfare.

jeez. not with a system that takes away UB after 9 months or whatever it is. someone here has shown that the incarceration rate in US jails almost exactly tracks the long-term unemployment rate in Oz, where people in Oz stay on welfare indefinitely rather than survive by committing crime. is it not cheaper to provide UB than to process people as felons?

'welfare' also includes old age pensions, child care benefits to middle class families, free school education, free hospital treatment, etc. the US is routinely placed at the bottom of any taxonomy of modern affluent OECD welfare states.

many welfare intitiatives were progressively brought in throughout the 20th century in a response to addressing entrenched poverty. doctors were shocked at the state of malnutrition of many Londoners showing up to enlist to 'fight for their country' in WWII. old age pensions were introduced in the 30s, and structured cash UBs gradually came online following the Great Depression rather than breadlines and soup kitchens and random acts of charity. people like reagan formulated and opposed 'welfare dependency', and it would be a good idea to reduce any such dependency should it be shown to exist. this is distinct from 'abolishing welfare' in a system where employment and housing are otherwise not guaranteed through market arrangements.

someone here has shown that the incarceration rate in US jails almost exactly tracks the long-term unemployment rate in Oz, where people in Oz stay on welfare indefinitely rather than survive by committing crime. is it not cheaper to provide UB than to process people as felons?

It may be "cheaper" but incentivization is one big problem.

I am pretty much anti-prison. Crimes should be punished exclusively by community service, flogging, and execution.

I also suspect that US has a high incarceration rate because a large group of people has a persistent victim mentality.

US is really doing very well as a country of 300M. Most successful welfare states have very high natural-resource-to-population ratios.

Canada is sitting pretty though. It has excellent natural resources like gold, tar sands, timber, fishery, and uranium. Also, it has only 32M people.

Moreover, the alleged "global warming" is supposed to open up new shipping routes across the Arctic.

Perhaps Vancouver is prime. :-P

Housing is expensive or considered scarced in much of the US mostly because of NIMBYism or other anti-growth efforts.

If unrestricted development is allowed, housing affordability will be reasonable according to market conditions.

I sound like someone completely incapable of compassion. Perhaps I am. But what if the optimal world requires such conditions? It is entirely possible or even likely.

Everyone "ought" to certain "basic" things. But this statement seems to be contrary to human nature and it will be proved impossible.

The trend is following the people voting for the party they precieve as having the greater chance of bailing out the FBs and GFs.

a post-election survey run by Labor here showed that people with a mortgage were more likely to vote Conservative, regardless of the neighbourhood, because the conservatives seemd to promise better 'economic management' or lower interest rates to be specific, and they had campaigned on this. when the conservatives were returned, interest rates rose a few times regardless, as it's the Federal Reserve who makes the decision, not the govt. hmm, some political education for the populace. the head of the Reserve had chosen NOT to weigh in durign the propaganda war leadign up to the election because 'he didn't want to be a third force in the election'. hmmm... it's time to elect a new populace...

Everyone “ought” to certain “basic” things. But this statement seems to be contrary to human nature and it will be proved impossible.

how can you say something is categorically within 'human nature' when people differ from each other and cultural attitudes differ over time? some people are more inclined to be compassionate than others. some societies are more compassionate than others. most people when directly confronted by someone in need will try to do something. most people abhor cruelty. but there are enough psychopaths to keep the misery going, such as in burma... we have evolved as a 'social' or communitarian animal as a survival mechanism. this is probably why we feel compassion for others who are genuinely in need due to circumstances beyond their control -- helping others to survive helps the species to survive. philosophically, we say we respect people's rights to autonomous personhood and to flourish when we are living in a very clear state of surplus.

how can you say something is categorically within ‘human nature’ when people differ from each other and cultural attitudes differ over time?

Human nature is pretty much universal. Virtual all humans are economic beings seeking maximization of self-interests.

some people are more inclined to be compassionate than others. some societies are more compassionate than others.

True. But very few people are capable of true compassion. Most display such emotion out of guilt or fear. Moreover, compassion towards individuals and compassion towards the human order are different and opposing.

most people abhor cruelty.

Cruelty is evil. Human nature is not necessarily evil. It may just be amoral.

but there are enough psychopaths to keep the misery going, such as in burma…

It is all about power and control.

we have evolved as a ’social’ or communitarian animal as a survival mechanism.

So people become "compassionate" because of indirect self-interests.

Contrary to your earlier postings, it is an incredible diverse city, it’s got Chinese people from all over the world

It is not diverse because it is pretty much an Asian city. There is nothing wrong about that though. Dim sum!

It’s a giant welfare state so I’m not sure you’ll like it, but I don’t think it tolerate illegal immigration as the US.

If the resource to population ratio is fine, I guess it can afford some welfare.

England doesn't have many resources (any more), but does have a reasonable welfare state... The Nordic states have the most benevolent welfare states going, but not a lot of natural resources... anyhow, the definition of 'surplus' is pretty relative, when you think about it... the problem of the US is not abundance or scarcity of natural resources but an unwillingness to share, and a desire to selfishly accumulate... for the purposes mostly of meeting esteem needs...

Nevermind what I said...

Well, I guess I'll have to hope for the best. Maybe the Dems can outperform their recent selves and surprise us all.

well, well, well...

interesting outcome...

i don't think it was a housing-driven rout against the repubs tho....

and they didn't rig the polls this time! maybe they were worried there would be a bloody revolution if they did...

I'm pretty pissed all around. More bonds that my taxes will be paying off, once I move to the BA.

I do hate the proposition system - the only proposition I'll ever vote for is to end all propositions and turn the bloody thing back to (dysfunctional, I agree) elected representatives.

Peter P Says:

> I also suspect that US has a high incarceration
> rate because a large group of people has a
> persistent victim mentality.

The US has a high incarceration rate for two reasons:

1. The Government does almost nothing to stop (or even discourage) young criminal males from impregnating as many stupid young females as they can.

2. The government then puts the single moms in criminal training centers (also called housing projects) where their sons learn how to commit crimes and get girls pregnant before 16 (and the daughters learn that it is normal to be on welfare and pregnant before 16). In rural America most criminal training centers are privately run and are also known at trailer parks…

It is a front page news story when someone from Brentwood (OJ) or Beverly Hills (the Menendez Brothers) commits a crime. I can’t figure out why it is not news that ALMOST ALL the male residents of most housing projects and some trailer parks do nothing but commit crimes…

Different Sean Says:

> a post-election survey run by Labor here showed
> that people with a mortgage were more likely to
> vote Conservative, regardless of the neighbourhood,
> because the conservatives seemd to promise better
> ‘economic management’

The voting patterns here in the US are similar with homeowners becoming more conservative up to a point. As homeowners in the US get very wealthy their voting becomes more liberal.

SFWoman Says:

> I am not happy with the way local (SF) elections went.
> Chris Daly is back again. His goons were out yesterday
> throwing opponents political materials on the street.

The Daly machine is here to stay unless we have a LOT of new development in his district since they have almost all the SRO people voting for him. Due to the current rent control laws there is nothing we can do to get rid of the privately run criminal housing units in the Tenderloin known as SROs…

> The proposition requiring landlords to pay for renters
> to move also passed.

No one cared about this (and the SFAA didn’t spend a penny to fight it) since the kind of evictions where you have to pay happen so rarely (over the past 40 years my Dad would have never had to pay the moving fees required under the new law to anyone).

> The smokers tax went down, bummer. I didn’t much
> care where the money from it would have gone, the
> higher prices would have discouraged the two main
> groups of smokers (the poor and teenagers) from
> buying cigarettes.

I’m not a fan of smoking, but taxing poor single moms addicted to nicotine an extra $200 a month does not seem like a great idea. Pot and cocaine costs a lot more than cigarettes and the high cost has never really discouraged the poor and teenagers…

> My real peeve with smokers (now that restaurants are
> smoke free) is the litter. The beach is not an ashtray
> guys! The sidewalk isn’t your personal trash repository!

As a runner and cyclist I see a lot of cigarette butts and I can’t figure out why the government would rather raise money by writing me a ticket for driving a couple miles an hour over the speed limit and does not seem to EVER write tickets to people who throw burning objects out of their cars…

> I am happy that Pombo is out. He was a corrupt man.
> I think a Democratic congress is a good thing, a bit of obstruction.

It is a strange world we live in when it looks like Pelosi and the gang will actually help to “cut” government spending that has been like a train out of control with Bush and his GOP congress…

Unfortunately I think you are right about Afghanistan. I really, really despise the Taliban.

sure, but look at all the other trouble spots around the world. why not get involved everywhere by force of arms and impose values on them? why is it only pipeline corridor and oil-rich countries that get all the attention? female circumcision still takes place in kenya. genocide and atrocities on a massive scale are actively occurring in burma against the Karen people. a massive civil war is erupting in the DRC (any country with 'democratic' AND 'republic' in its name is almost guaranteed to be a human rights blackspot). the nepalese are oppressed by the PRC. west papua has been annexed by indonesia who are practising genocide against the locals. i am not a cultural relativist, i believe more enlightened cultures should stand up against these practices, but when there are resources and alliances at stake, we just don't see it happen, and all too often western big business and governments turns a blind eye to human rights abuses when convenient.

I didn’t much care where the money from it would have gone, the higher prices would have discouraged the two main groups of smokers

Unfortunately, most economic analyses I've read on the efficacy of cigarette taxes show that in places like CA and other high tax states, taxes have reached or exceeded the point of elasticity impact.

Or in other words, higher taxes don't change demand by very much at this point. There are two main reasons: 1) for those to whom smoking is "optional", they have already substituted something else, 2) the emergence of a vibrant black market.

I am glad the tax failed, and I voted against it (which won't surprise anyone here). It was feel-good legislation that would have done little more than create a bigger cigarette smuggling and counterfeit business, while distorting CA's already contorted tax revenues mess.

The more sane thing to do vis-a-vis cigarettes would be to remove all disproportionate taxes while at the same time allowing insurers to properly assess premiums to smokers regardless of group coverage status. They could do the same to drinkers, which last I checked, causes a higher level of public burden.

"female circumcision still takes place in kenya"

WTF?

@DinOR,

This is one of the world's experts on the subject, medically speaking:

http://www.brighamandwomens.org/africanwomenscenter/bio.aspx?subID=submenu1

It's a big problem. The first US case is currently being prosecuted of an Ethiopian family that did it to their daughter.

Oh I'm aware of what it involves but utterly fail to see the relevance (and we're pretty open here) to this thread or any other. If it's a 3rd World sh*thole I've been there. Yes I have been to Mombassa (that's in Kenya not kenya btw). Three generations of soldiers were at the 38th Parallel to defend South Korea's rich oil fields! Sheesh DS, I don't mind someone taking a "victory lap" but where are we going here?

Unlike Alec Baldwin I will not make some idle threat about leaving the country if Pelosi is speaker and have to lay in bed for 3 days in a catatonic state. (Michelle Malkin).

FGM is still occurring in many parts of africa and the middle east - it's easy to google...

DinOR: He's FOR female circumcision!

Bad for females.

Bad for Oregon!

dinor, i snapped off my shift and caps lock keys in polemic rage many years ago... besides, it's quicker to type...

i'm pointing out that these issues suddenly only become important and justifications for going to war or demanding 'regime change' when they're sitting on piles of oil or strategic corridors. there are many instances of human rights abuses around the world that are being overlooked, including regularly turning a blind eye to invasions, oppressions, genocides, and so on...

Okay folks, in case you didn't know the election season is O-V-E-R, here comes the news:

Rise in gas prices first since August
By Gary Richards, Mercury News

Fuel prices jumped Tuesday in some parts of California, the first increase since the great slide at the pumps began in August.
More at: http://tinyurl.com/ycy3q5

In true MSM style, they are too chicken to take a stand, so there is a whole lot of "Well, it could be because of this... But, on the other hand..."

SP

DS,

www.oilempire.us will gladly indulge your every oil conspiracy fantasy! It will show you without question that radio controlled jetliners were used to perpetrate the 9/11 attacks!

It may be quicker to type sans caps etc. but it's difficult to read. Oil Empire uses correct punctuation!

SP,

Thank you and good morning! You have shaken me from Post Election Traumatic Stress Disorder. I can kill again!

Thanks SP (insert cheesy smile here)

www.oilempire.us will gladly indulge your every oil conspiracy fantasy!

yes, cool. you only went into a place that has 30% of the world's viably extracted oil reserves for altruistic reasons, and to find those invisible WMD that were threatening the world.

it’s difficult to read.

tough titties. tell it to e e cummings...

I don’t advocate wars, but the US was already in Afghanistan, and...sort of wandered off.

yes, i wonder why. given that US diplomats a few years ago were saying "we can keep these places as sha'ria states as long as we're getting oil from them. business as usual, just like saudi arabia". clearly human rights was never very high on their list of real priorities, it's just rhetoric for the masses...

however, when the taliban, courted in texas, got cold feet about pipelines and deals with unocal, suddenly it was time for regime change. and the intended month of invasion? october 2001...

DinOR: He’s FOR female circumcision!

Bad for Oregon!

I love it! Too bad we can't get the guy with the deep bass growly voice over to say those lines.

1. The Government does almost nothing to stop (or even discourage) young criminal males from impregnating as many stupid young females as they can.

I am mostly pro-life, but I do believe that abortion should be encouraged if the child is likely to be a public charge.

2. The government then puts the single moms in criminal training centers (also called housing projects) where their sons learn how to commit crimes and get girls pregnant before 16 (and the daughters learn that it is normal to be on welfare and pregnant before 16). In rural America most criminal training centers are privately run and are also known at trailer parks…

The peril of welfare.

tough titties. tell it to e e cummings…

He was a poet. You're not. Besides, the knee-jerk socialism get a bit tiring.

Some single moms are hero. They do whatever possible to raise their loved children. The society should extend reasonable help to this group.

However, the welfare system cannot reward this trend because many single moms got into the situation through bad judgement, like marrying the wrong husbands.

If the society decides to help these people, they will breed and multiply. Something must be done to eliminate the social cancer.

Randy,

Unfortunately, most economic analyses I’ve read on the efficacy of cigarette taxes show that in places like CA and other high tax states, taxes have reached or exceeded the point of elasticity impact.

There's one crucial submarket where I don't think that's true - teenage smoking. Sure, there probably exist black market avenues for cigarettes for teens, but the typical kid goes to his local minimart and says in his huskiest sounding voice: "Two packs of Marlborough".

Those extra bucks added to that pack might not stop him from smoking, but they'll cut down on his consumption.

I too voted against most of the bond measures that didn't involve education. Bummer.

Aside from that, I'm obviously pleased. Anybody who thinks our president could use a touch of humble pie, raise their hand.

DS,

It's just as confusing and difficult to read as if one typed in all caps. Maybe Oil Empire has a blog there? There are like TWO conservatives on this blog (Joe Schmoe being the other) and you coming at ME with the WMD argument makes less than no sense. If I "did" support the administration's position in the middle east I've never shared it here.

The very first time I've ventured anything of a vaguely political nature (on the day after "our" mid-term elections) and I get this "it's all about OIL" and WMD crap. And people wonder why IB folks keep their political opinions to themselves?

"YOU only went into a place that has 30% of the world's viably extracted oil reserves for altruistic reasons"

you? meaning me? seehowtheseliberalsthink? wherehaveigonesean? wherehaveigone? If the Bush White House so blatantly disregards the will of the people (regardless of party affiliation) how can you possibly believe that "I" am in some way individually responsible? Unreal.

Oh and btw, when you write in all lower case it looks like some teen age girl's text messaging. luv u!

Goldman fund energy coefficient?

I like to think I get around but I don't believe I'm familiar with that one?

Oh yeah, better get gas before the oil companies discover the next big reason to hike prices up to $3.00/gallon.

SFGuy,

How do I know you're not a teenage girl? You could be a teenage girl posing as an adult male living in SF, trying to get the rest of us in trouble for some unknown reason.

The all lower case doesn't lie, yah know :)

SFGuy,

Oh, I was hardly implying that just b/c I hadn't heard of it off the top of my head that it must be some kind of hoax! Not at all. Besides Peter P is the guy studying for his CFA (I'm just a street smart trader). There's new stuff every day.

Last month I bought these (and I am not kidding here) Reverse Convertibles w/Knock In. CAT being the underlying security. As long as CAT does not tank below 49.75 I collect 8.5%? I had to ask the lead underwriter's rep to explain it to me like I was a 4th grader. We've all seen Rev/Conv before but WTF is a "knock-in" right?