patrick.net

"Lumping in everyone who opposed the war in Iraq with reflexively anti-war peacenik hippies does a disservice to the truth and undermines badly needed debate on the subject."

I didn't intend to lump those groups together. My apologies. Really I was responding to comments by DS regarding the LACK of intervention in certain parts of the world, with my point being that, A) no one else seems to intervene when required, and B) when the U.S. does intervene it catches flak for it, and not just in Iraq.

I agree that most Democrats supported going to Afghanistan, to their credit. However, it is discouraging that many other countries that supported our efforts there are already wavering.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/6072366.stm

I guess another way to put it would be this: the U.S. overreached in Iraq, and has lost credibility because of it. But until other powers step up their support where it should be a given (Afghanistan) I feel they have lost credibility as well. If the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan tomorrow, would anyone else fill the vacuum? (Other than the Taliban of course...)

FRIFY,

I don't want to speak for HARM but I'm not sure that's exactly what he was driving at. The knee-jerk reactions have happened on both sides. Please don't assume just b/c I'm a pretty conservative guy that I "get off" watching news clips of a war torn Iraq. I don't.

Uh, that's .5 trillion in 2006 and 1.5 trillion in 2007 for a total of 2 trillion (and yes that's trillion)

Sorry Claire.

What is proposed in Iraq is not 'partition' - viz postwar Germany's Brit, Yank and Soviet occupied zones - but a federation with resource-sharing formulae to be worked out.

We have done all we could to insure that Iran would emerge as the regional heavyweight, though that has not been our intention, and have behaved in a fashion that is all an enemy could wish. Extreme religious factions abroad - and, may I say, at home - have done a great deal of harm by polarizing the views of millions who have heretofore had no basis for serious disagreement, let alone military adventures, covert operations, or acts of terrorism.

Bin Laden, and others with their own individual fixations, has been consistently clear that the destruction of Western economies is the weapon of choice - through the disruption of financial centers, the costs and inefficiencies associated with heightened security measures, and the vast expenditures involved in active military adventures in distant lands.

A variant on Reagan's 'spend the Soviets into a collapse' approach is thus applied to ourselves. We have been most cooperative, if you think about it.

DinOR - thanks for the info - you don't think all the refi's going on at the minute will push back the resets? Do you think people will wait until their reset before trying to refinance?

I guess another way to put it would be this: the U.S. overreached in Iraq, and has lost credibility because of it. But until other powers step up their support where it should be a given (Afghanistan) I feel they have lost credibility as well. If the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan tomorrow, would anyone else fill the vacuum? (Other than the Taliban of course…)

I can agree with this. Our NATO and U.N. "allies" have tended to be long on rhetoric and short on commitment for a very long time. Unfortunately, Iraq has now provided a lot of political cover for them and a huge distraction away from other regional conflicts, where military intervention can be justified on humanitarian grounds (Darfur).

Thanks for the "Rapture Ready" link, eburbed. I don't know whether to laugh or be frightened that there are lots of people who really believe that God is a Republican.

Bruce,

Sorry, just not buyin' it. What you describe is basically a scene from "Team America". The notion that we're being "out smarted" is just ridiculous. Oh wait, if the economic expansion post 9/11 was bin laden's "crowning achievement" you're right! We're in total disarray.

Uh, if this were D-Day the total number of American serviceman in Iraq that have died to date would have covered about the first 20 minutes of the invasion. I've heard the "they suckered us in" as they let us waltz across the desert unchallenged theory before. Look, it's a mess. No one's trying to deny that. Again as Boston Transplant suggests, what would have been the alternative? Now that the Dem's are going to have their way everyone will like us! WTF.

HARM,

Would you kindly address Claire's question as well? I've read so many of the links you've posted regarding the reset and you're really more qualified to speak to this than most here.

Claire, it's a bona-fide mess. Right now most on-line MB's Quicken, Di-Tech etc. are frantically pushing for those w/ARM's to re-fi to a fixed ASAP! They're literally putting the fear of God into these folks in an effort to generate fees. I tend to think that rather than moving the "reset" back it's actually pulling it forward. Many of these people have become so accustomed to living off of cash out re-fi's they are even getting out of lower int. rate loans to access "their equity". Even if it means a higher rate and a higher payment. So they're basically volunteering themselves for the "default line" but probably figure "they'll just sell in the spring".

Thanks for the “Rapture Ready” link, eburbed. I don’t know whether to laugh or be frightened that there are lots of people who really believe that God is a Republican.

All I know is that I hope the Rapture doesn't happen soon - I haven't had time to shop for my Rapture season clothes yet.

In some ways, I feel bad for the Democrats.

Sure they won - but that's like saying you won a contest where the prize is cleaning up poop.

Let's see, in the next two years:
1- FBs will become more F'ed - screaming out in pain. Who's going to have to do the dirty work of either bailing out voters/corporations or letting them burn?

2- National Debt spirals out of control. Who's going to have to raise taxes/cut spending/favorite programs to do that?

3- Iraq. Who's going to have to go fix it?

No matter what, these are all going to be ugly. And the likelihood of ending well is low. Democrats will just end up looking like the "party that made us all hurt" because they'll have to be responsible and do the right thing.

No one gets elected for being responsible. People get elected for making sure our gas prices are low, our freedom freeways continue to grow, and that houses continue to appreciate.

Democrats are screwed next cycle.

@eburbed,

That was precisely my point about the Dems being better off LOSING this time. Pyrrhic victory.

Looks like Measure D and E got defeated by NMBYists. :(

Fortunately, Measure A got voted down too.

That was precisely my point about the Dems being better off LOSING this time. Pyrrhic victory.

I guess that's why we're not in politics. Too cynical.

All I know is that I hope the Rapture doesn’t happen soon - I haven’t had time to shop for my Rapture season clothes yet.

Ack. Flashbacks to my childhood. We had a special session in Jr. High where local ministers came in to talk to us about the evils of Rock & Roll and Dungeons & Dragons. Apparently owning a 20-sided-die or a Red-Star covered Rush album (2112 anyone?) invalidated my Rapture bus ticket.

Well let's hope that somehow the Dems winning hastens their passage to the spaceship in the tail of Hale-Bopp or whatever. With the dramatically decreased demand for housing in this country with those of us (some thankfully) left behind, we should all be able to by 2 or 3 homes and a couple of nice European (most of them will stay behind too, as I understand it) sedans to boot.

(and for those lacking the proper neural pathways to recognize the patterns of sarcasm: too bad)

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed it.

Huh?

One day just when I was telling my wife that they should build condos in Rancho San Antonio some green dude tried to get us to support an urban boundary initiative.

I think they should even build condos inside Yosemite. A Nature-themed community. Excellent.

Oh come on guys. Nobody is going to blame Dem's for anything (other than elected Rep's) trying to deflect blame. Let's show a little faith here. This has been described as a "backward looking" election and obviously many voted no doubt to punish Rep's.

If ever there was a time when someone could claim "but we inherited this mess" this would be it. GOP won't be able to distance themselves from the debacle by claiming their hands were tied and unable to "finish the job". Who would buy that. They were afforded several years to figure this out.

On the other hand Dem's have had 12 years to figure out what their brand of leadership would look like so they need to realize they were elected out of protest and if they fail to deliver will be right back in the minority. But I don't want to hear any of this "they were set up to fail" stuff. What better an opportunity? They weren't ushered in b/c the people were bored w/peace. These (very obviously) are emotionally charged times. They just need to capitalize on it correctly. GOP, stupid f*ckers.

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed it.

Huh?

I totally botched that comment. Take 2:

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed No on Measure A.

DinOR,

I do respect your opinions - oh here comes the however - however, I think 'outsmarted' is too simple, and it's not quite my view. I won't test your patience with Perle's expectations of a WWII Parisian welcome in Baghdad or the much-too-frequently cited carrier-top victory party. What seems to me far more revealing is the benighted prosecution of the conflict itself and the veil of broadly anti-Muslim rhetoric emanating from Washington. These reflect a real failure of competence and no sense whatever of consequences.

Can you possibly doubt our tactics of the past several years have served to radicalize moderates in the Muslim community worldwide? Was that not considered, was it disbelieved, or did it not matter? Or do you suggest that we hadn't the expertise available to anticipate many or even most of the errors of judgment which have resulted in all this suffering and consequent anger? If so then perhaps we really must disagree. I don't think we were outsmarted - we outdumbed them.

As the economic expansion post 9/11 has been a important part of the dissections carried out on this board, and does not reflect to our credit, I am surprised you bring it up in this context. I would characterise it as an ill-constructed recovery.

But pace DinOR. You posts are a pleasure, and I'm sure I don't know what launched me on this rant other than the frustration we all share.

Dinor,

Now that the Dem’s are going to have their way everyone will like us! WTF.

Don't underestimate the value of new blood at the helm of a nation. Gorby, Yeltsin, Putin... they were all Tsars of one kind or another, but they were a far cry in touchy-feely-land from the old soviet leaders. Russians are no longer perceived as the boogy-men they were in the 80s.

In case you haven't traveled or spoken to anyone outside of the US, we're perceived as the bullying bad guys now. Right or wrong, getting rid of the face foreigners hate two years from now will improve our international Rep. The current perception that the American people have a bone to pick with Bush will improve the goodwill towards our nation over the next two years.

@ Randy,

Rush and D+D flashbacks in the same sentence? They sell the good stuff in Marin. Seriously, D+D was solid analytical training for the Gen-X crowd in Junior High.

If ever there was a time when someone could claim “but we inherited this mess” this would be it. GOP won’t be able to distance themselves from the debacle by claiming their hands were tied and unable to “finish the job”. Who would buy that. They were afforded several years to figure this out.

DinOR, on Iraq (and corruption scandals) I completely agree. The REIC-driven economy is a completely different story.

Polls still show that many people --perhaps even a majority-- still haven't even HEARD of the concept of "housing bubble", much less believe one exists. When they DO learn about it (probably when they get their first ARM reset notice in the mail within the next 2-3 years), who are they likely to blame? The party which (by then) will have long since been voted out of power, or the current incumbents? Not saying the Dems don't deserve their fair share of blame on blame in this mess too, but still...

If I were a GOP "loser", I'd be feeling pretty good about my prospects in '08 right now. :-)

Oh I say - DinOR - I think I forgot to charge my irony sensor.

I see we're on the same page on recovery. Cheeesh.

I voted for Measure A only because I saw how many Realtors(r) and mortgage brokers proudly backed No on Measure A.

RE professionals are not your enemy. Environmentalists are.

Regarding the general unawareness of the bubble...

Had lunch today with an old friend - MIT/Macroeconomics - who, while not really crediting the existence of such a thing, observed that if it did exist it was of no concern as he had no intention or need to sell, nor any inclination to dip into equity.

People believe they will not be affected at all.

How's the turnout compared to 2002? My guess: high turnout = turn the bums out, low turnout = unenergized conservative electorate (who'll be more than happy to jump back in in 2008 with their "I told you so")

M. Cote,

With all due respect, the national GOP were total cave trolls.

Are we onto some sort of economic version of spring to summer, 1939?

The Dems rolled a 12 with 2d6 die and scored +30 hit points.

...and a THAC0 of 19. Old skool.

I expect you're right, SP.

I did suggest to him that he check his exposure to derivatives. But he's the one with the credentials, after all.

Perhaps I'm more wary than conditions warrant, but then perhaps not.

The Dems rolled a 12 with 2d6 die and scored +30 hit points.

If the senate falls... 20 on d20 => double damage.

I say that I'm impressed Cote. You must have eavesdropped a fair amount on the kids in the basement... unless you joined them. ;-)

It's typical of me that I would fall into a crowd where playing D&D is actually considered cool...

If he doesn’t intend to participate in a transaction, has no exposure to adjustable rate risk and has no need to ‘liberate’ equity soon - then he is unlikely to feel a direct and adverse impact.

Just because you haven't "liberated" any equity nor are directly employed in the REIC does not necessarily mean you are immune to the macroeconomic consequences of others' folly.

I still have vivid, not-so-fond memories of the last RE bubble and S&L/RTC implosion, which (in part) spawned the recession of the early 90s. In 1991, I was a fresh college grad with minimal theoretical knowledge of credit/asset bubbles and zero personal experience. I had never bought nor sold RE of any kind, nor was I seeking employment in a related field. And yet, the only jobs being offered at that time paid pretty much close to minimum wage. And I was "lucky" to get even that. It wasn't until the late 90s that I began earning enough money to start repaying my student loans, much less "living large & stepping easy".

Even those who believe their jobs are relatively recession-proof, or that they are "indispensible" may soon be in for a rude awakening.

I suppose there will be recession proof jobs - bankruptcy attorney, public auctioneer, repo men, tenured macroeconomics professors...

Astrid,

That was funny. I actually caught myself wondering if Florida's next RE boom would be based on outlanders coming here to file bankruptcy...

M. Cote,

Well, Pelosi is a bit more in tune with the mainstream than Dick Gephart. As it is, the won't be much forthcoming cooperation from the slightly weakened cave trolls, so attack attack attack might be the best use of the next 2 years.

That, and getting the hell out of Iraq, NOW!

PS - I really don't think the Dems are ready for another FDResque mandate. I think you're giving the national Dems waaaaaay too much credit. In my humble opinion, this election has significantly reduced Dems' chance at a lasting legacy in their current form.

She’s… she’s… Boxer/Feinstein with a three digit IQ.

That puts her at 100 (average) at worst and 999 (super-genius) at best. Not too bad ;-) .

Muggy,

I'm glad they didn't go with "Mediterrean style villa"...

Denial went on unchecked for 6 years but yesterday it collapsed in the political arena. Who knows, one day denial might collapse in the realm of California real estate prices.