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Recipe for a "Soft Landing"?


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2006 Nov 10, 9:27am   11,350 views  147 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Some of you out there still seem to be under the mistaken impression that inflation alone can somehow magically bail out f@cked homedebtors (and no, I'm not talking about semi-trolls like ConfusedRealtwhore). Some of you seem to believe that nominal prices --and sales-- can merely hold steady, even after 8 years of the most unprecedented run-up in real estate at least since the 1920s. When (mostly falling) median prices in many parts of the U.S. are now several standard deviations away from the long-term mean vs. supporting rents and incomes, and unsold inventory (phantom or not) continues to grow.

Some of you really ought to put the NAR bong down and pull your lips off Bendover Ben's ass for a second.

In case you happen to be one of those suffering from this popular delusion, please take a moment to look at the following charts, most of them skillfully prepared by Mr Ritholtz over at the The Big Picture. They say a picture's worth a thousand words. What do these charts say to you?

Discuss, enjoy...
HARM


Mortgage Resets 2004-2014
MEW 1960-2006
Prices vs GDP 1968-2006
Housing Starts 1959-2006
Inventory vs Sales 1983-2006

#housing

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147   astrid   2006 Nov 13, 7:30am  

Much of the US education is borne by endownments or the government. When I was going to a pricy private first tier college while my parents were making a slightly above avg income ($70-80K/yr) my college bore about 60% of the retail cost, I took on $2,500/yr in subsidized loans and my parents paid the rest out of their income. They didn't have much asset outside of retirement funds at the time though.

My big plan for dealing with kids' (if any) education is as follows, in order of preference:

clumping kids together

go in-state tuition shopping - Georgia and CA seems to offer the best deals for one's tuition dollars

transfer assets to parents as gifts (up to $40K yr tax free), expect to get money back as estate asset -- this one is actually pretty awesome since it also can also get rid of a lot of capital gain, but only works if one has frugal and trustworthy parents with relatively low networth, and it really helps if you have no siblings. Also have to buy parents long term care insurance so long illnesses does not waste the asset.

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