patrick.net

Perhaps we will all wake up one morning to find hyperstagflation!

That would be the day the US dollar drops dramtically when China, Japan and the British say enough and diversify some of their reserves into other assets and currencies.

I hope this never happens!

Boy it sucks being beholden to foreigners!

shrimp, for one

CR,

I got a question for you too. How you manage to find your way to your computer in you *highly* confused state?

CR,

Hmmm. Yes I did. Thank you.

But more importantly, since that little tidbit hadn't been brought up in while, I think the fact that you brought it up pretty much confirms that you're marinara prime.

CR

Please show me evidence of those Belmont moneymakers. Hard as I try, I can't seem to find anything that would support your claims.

astrid,

CR is MP is FR.

He or she knows better than half of the arguments (s)he makes, which is why we originally proclaimed her a Troll. (S)he knows well that the NPV of owning the past two years is not greater than the NPV of investing that money elsewhere.

You never answered my questions MP. How long did you make it before falling off the IB ladder? Must be frustrating to see your former colleagues getting those fat juicy bonuses whilst you pedal overpriced condos built on fill for a living.

CRealt-whore,

Your ability to read people seems to be as bad as your ability to comprehend what they say.

What happened to that multi-million dollar Marina house?

CR,

(For shame, I went through all this with you last year! Actually, my loans are manageable and I'm paying them off by myself - renting a cheap apartment sure helps cut down my expenses. Those student loans also landed me a job that pays me, which is very different from 24 year olds mortgaging their future for a house 10X their salary.)

But I'm very boring. Let's talk about you instead. What are you confused about? Why are you renting if you're convinced that buying is such a great thing? Is your *$50,000 car* European or Japanese? Why did you conceal your job title for so long?

@ConfusedRenter

Summerhill Homes eh? I'm sure they're up 17%. You are so full of shit. Even the McMansions off of Ralston Ranch Road are down. You'll have me believe those cardboard condos are up that much...show me. Not some Zillow bullshit, but I want something I can see a closing sale up 17% since 2005.

At this point we're just troll-feeding, no?

But on the topic of food, I did take Peter's suggestion and check out greencrabs.blogspot.com. Looks like I missed the crab discussion. My family and friends used to head down to Ocean City, Maryland every year, and we always went crabbing. Easy to learn, difficult to master. We went in summer, but the crabs were always excellent (you had to sort, though, as "eggers" were off season and illegal). A few spinkles of Old Bay, some fresh melted butter and away you go. Those crabs need no adornment.

Aggressive little creatures, though. You lose one in the bottom of the boat and you'd better watch your toes. :) I also missed the apple tart/sour cream discussion. The one I had in Paris with sour cream was quite memorable (so was the ragout).

Everyone,
I sense ConfusedRealtor is really trying his best to subvert this blog. First trying to malign SFWoman, then SP, now astrid. Feeble, feeble little mind of his. Keep trying, asswipe.

Maybe for his next trick, CR can try baiting Surfer-X. Although I'm not sure that my eyes could withstand the result.

Brand,

You're right, I really shouldn't have. CR was baiting SP and I just couldn't help myself. I really hate trolls who feign ignorance...SP mentioned more than once that he owns a home worth more than $1M and that he could afford to upgrade to a multi-million dollar home when the prices were right.

She-crabs and sour cream apple pie -- I should cook tomorrow.

The odd-todd feed is quite good. just common sense at the end of the day. i'm not sure how old it is. 61% of new mortgages in Ca were IO at the time it was made!

I really hate trolls who feign ignorance…SP mentioned more than once that he owns a home worth more than $1M and that he could afford to upgrade to a multi-million dollar home when the prices were right.

Come to think of it, quite a few people around here own or recently owned $1M+ homes and could relatively easily afford to upgrade. I have admitted being in this group, as have others.

It is the fact that all of these people DON'T buy something right now that should be the real wake up call to Trolls like CR. This isn't exactly a group which usually agrees on much of anything other than the fact that house prices will come down, and it is a good idea to wait. And, as far as I know, there aren't any lottery winners in this bunch either; just hard working, successful people. People who wouldn't want any of CR's listings anyway.

By the way, a house hasn't increased in value until it's sold for that increased value - when they're sold for a huge gain yoy, then come bragging about it - and out of the increase in value - remember to subtract the realtor fees etc.

I'm worried now, we get a salary increase that I now realize is only close to reported inflation - 3 to 4% per year. So, even if houses are going to come down because of inflation, our salary is being effectively reduced too. Am I making sense?

What kind of pay increases do we need to keep ahead of inflation?

Dear CR,

Not everyone has a Mommy or Daddy that lays out $120k for a down payment.

We are quite happy renting a house that would cost us 3 times that amount in an interest only loan from the bank, plus we don't have to pay property tax and maintenance. We are much better off renting from a landlord, than renting from the bank for three times the amount we are paying.

So, cut the crap!

70-80,000 won't easily buy you a house now though!

Here's the quote in the article that tells it all:

"Even though corporations have enjoyed record profits and earnings for the past few years, that has not been reflected in creation of jobs. For example, last year, employers added 1.98 million payroll jobs; this year's job creation is expected to fall a bit short of that. By contrast, during the rip-roaring late 1990s, employers added 3.36 million jobs in 1997, 3 million in 1998 and 3.17 million in 1999. "

I didn't find the part in the article that says undergrads are making $70-80K.

@ConfusedRealtor,

Cut the crap.

Now you're trying to subvert the blog by making it appear that people are here "to help cope" and we're all people "wishing" for the housing market to crash. Most posters on this blog (you're not included) use data and facts to back up ideas about what may or may not happen to the housing market. As far as I can tell, you're the only one here who is "wishing" the housing market did something while ignoring "the big picture" and the "landscape you are in."

And stop the disingenuous statements like "Renting is fine. honestly, don’t let anybody tell you renting is throwing money down the toilet or is shameful."

That's like one of us saying, "being a realtor is fine, CR. Honestly, don't let anybody tell you selling real estate is throwing that pea-sized brain of yours down the toilet or is shameful."

# Claire Says:
November 12th, 2006 at 9:41 am

70-80,000 won’t easily buy you a house now though!

Not in california... So much for higher education

Ski bum - How are your hypotheses and facts going so far? Same old tune next year as the beginning of this year and the last?

My hypotheses are fine so far. Exactly as according to plan, in fact. Don't you worry your little brain about me. I'm doing fine.

Just face up to the fact that housing in SF is up again this year and the economy is just fine.

Are you asking me to "FACE REALITY"?

Are you a data programmer or something, constantly in fear of being outsourced or something?

No, I'm not. I gues you haven't been paying attention. Clearly you just troll around trying to spew your realtor propaganda without actually reading other posts.

What an idiot you are.

California has exceeded what is reality salaries in most of the rest of the country except possible NY metro. Curiously though look at the overall median So Cal included and you see just how outrageous the cost of living there is. The real wages are still in N. Cal.

MY question is with the cost of living so out of reality why are there so many bodies there? Are they all living working class\ near poverty?

@CR

Thanks for confirming you were an IB yourself, CR.

i’m sure there are a lot of renters who let the market come to them, instead of figuring out ways to improve their own earnings power to go to the market.

What percentage of those IBs make it to the $500K/yr tier? Last I checked the pre-req for that was surviving a few up-or-outs, being ranked top of your IB class, getting +700 on your GMAT, getting into one of 5 B-Schools, knowing the right people, and then getting a little lucky.

Analysts don't make $500K/yr, not even in SF or NYC. Go to glocap.com our vault.com if you want to see how much lower level IBers really make.

Sylvie,

I'm pretty sure the greater SF and LA areas are not particularly high income, esp. compared to NYC.

However, it is quite possible to live comfortably with a $30-40K/yr salary in the BA and not take on debt, just rent with roommates and don't go clubbing too often. Buying a house right now is the surest way to years of grinding poverty.

SFGuy,

Were you offended by my statement that live animals can be even more delicious? :)

CR conveniently ignored one very important factor in this:

Renting is a fine, fine thing. But so is owning a home. People say ‘homes in my area’ are only up 2-3% this year and barely keeping up or beating inflation. Better than rent oustripping inflation by 5X.. and then compare the return on rent to 2-3% inflation = ?

Rents started out at a small fraction of ownership costs. That's what started this whole thing for many of us former owners.

Even if all I do is ride rents back up to parity minus premium ownership costs, then I'm still far ahead of the owner who rode it down.

By the way CR (or any of your multiple personae), with the help of many people here I built a large scenario modeler which you can use to actually test your bullshit claims. Here is the location and thread. You're more than free to download it, find our errors, and post there or here why we're wrong. The best comments I've received are those where people found errors or questioned the model's assumptions.

You do know excel, don't you? Surely you made it that far in your brief IB career.

CR,

LOL! I could mention that I make more than that and spend less, but you would ignore it like you ignore everything else.

I would like to meet those proverbial $80K to start 22 year olds. I didn't even recall Harvey Mudders getting that sort of salary offer in 2000 and 2001. First year salary at IB firms/accounting firms/consulting firms is probably $55-65K, which is not that great deal considering how much traveling they do and the late nights they have to work.

CR,

Also, what do bonuses handed out in the "boonies" of Wall Street have to do with SF prices again?

If CR can convince me, one of the more optimistic people around here, then I'll hire him/her to help us buy a home in Marin. But as others have asked, you have to convince me that "this time is different", and there won't be any reversion to the mean.

astrid says: I would like to meet those proverbial $80K to start 22 year olds.

Unfortunately, I know lots of those people. Any engineer that hired on during the tech boom in California started at $75-80K almost automatically*. Starting wages in other areas were slightly less, but I always argued that with the cost of living difference, we were making much more outside California. Also, that base salary does not include discount stock purchase, stock options, profit sharing or any other extras. That easily tacks on another 10-15% in various incarnations.

Though the boom has ended, it seems to have affected job creation more than wages... i.e. now 20% of the people are getting hired, but the starting salary is still 80-100% of the Y2K water mark.

* Assumptions: Went to a respected engineering school. 3.0 GPA or above. Bright, motivated and interviewed well. Probably majored in an "official" Engineering degree; Computer Science and related degrees tend to make less unless the candidate is a bona fide hotshot.

Brand,

Huh, maybe I hung out with the wrong crowd and didn't know it. I know some BSes who made $80K+ after a year or two, and maybe more in the form of non-salaried compensation, but not at 22 yrs old.

PS - It's not at all unfortunate. Engineers' starting salaries are pretty high but hits a ceiling pretty quickly. I think they should get paid more since they actually make stuff, rather than just spend their time pushing paper or goods onto other people.

BTW, what's an "official" engineering degree? I assume EE and mechanical engineering count, but what about civil engineering? Sound engineering? Financial engineering? :)

Live shrimp has an interesting texture -- the important thing is not to overthink it.

I have my limits too, I absolutely refuse to eat live monkey brain or live baby mice.

I refuse to eat Taurus realestaticus. I hear it is stringy and bitter.

SFGuy,

Sadly, that was intentional. I wasn't sure how to say BS in plural.