patrick.net

LOL, yes, the Democratic out-of-power minority really screwed things up 1995-2006.

Use your ----ing brain, ZippyDDoodah.

This is not to say the Democrats covered themselves in glory during their time out of power. They were silent bystanders while the other party, -- who happened to be in power -- utterly destroyed the enforcement underpinnings of the financial system in this country 1998-2005.

I'll just repeat what I said back in March by link:

http://patrick.net/?p=28968#comment-671841

I’ll just repeat what I said back in March by link:

http://patrick.net/?p=28968#comment-671841

Your linked comment explains nothing. Nada. Democrats blocked investigations and intimidated those who were warning of problems in housing lending as the video makes clear. Although it's not all Dems, it's mostly Dems who did this. Which party is 'most guilty' of pushing the philosophy that lending standards should be lowered for otherwise uncreditworthy people in order to help the 'less fortunate'? An honest answer to that question says it all

ZippyDDoodah says

Democrats blocked investigations and intimidated those who were warning of problems in housing lending as the video makes clear.

They went beyond blocking/intimidating critism, they encouraged GSE practices regardless of the consequences. It all up on Youtube !

ZippyDDoodah says

I’ll just repeat what I said back in March by link:
http://patrick.net/?p=28968#comment-671841

Your linked comment explains nothing. Nada. Democrats blocked investigations and intimidated those who were warning of problems in housing lending as the video makes clear. Although it’s not all Dems, it’s mostly Dems who did this. Which party is ‘most guilty’ of pushing the philosophy that lending standards should be lowered for otherwise uncreditworthy people in order to help the ‘less fortunate’? An honest answer to that question says it all

Yes, the poor, powerless Republicans, intimidated by minority negro Dems from saving the $20 trillion dollar financial sector from itself. What f---ing planet do you come from?

The poor and less fortunate didn't cause this mess. Unregulated banking -- in the mortgage subsector did. We were collectively cruising for a bruising -- the same financial disaster that unfolded with S&L crisis from the late 80s, with many of the same industry players and sins to be repeated again once the same Reagan/Bush Sr regulators got back into power under the W administration.

2001-2004 was a bit early to be actually see the looming disaster, as the industry was not quite fully engaged in suicidal business practices that became its staple a bit later in the game -- 2005 & 2006 was when the actual overcommitments were made, and where most of the money is going to be lost. CountryWide, WaMu, Wachovia/Golden West, etc etc. made their blood money on the middle-class, not the poor and less fortunate.

This is not to assert that had Gore won in 2000 things would have been much different. Actually doing the right thing 2001-2005 would have been politically impossible regardless of party or ideology. Everybody wants free cake; I had been following the RE market somewhat closely 2000-2005 and it was only in late 2006 that I figured out how unsustainable it had become, when the Casey Serin story broke. Casey Serin was just the first cockroach but I knew then that all the get-rick-quick bull--- I had seen advertised on TV in the previous years had produced an army of Casey Serins able to game a system willing to be played thanks to the agency problem of mortgage brokering, CDOs, ratings agencies, and the regulators going MIA either due to ideology or complicity.

679106">ZippyDDoodah says

Your linked comment explains nothing. Nada. Democrats blocked investigations and intimidated those who were warning of problems in housing lending as the video makes clear. Although it’s not all Dems, it’s mostly Dems who did this. Which party is ‘most guilty’ of pushing the philosophy that lending standards should be lowered for otherwise uncreditworthy people in order to help the ‘less fortunate’? An honest answer to that question says it all

GSE's were minor players in the bad loans business. Most of the sub-prime/exotic loans that went and are going bad were made by private label mortgage companies and a hand full of large banks and packaged up as securities by investment banks. " the philosophy that lending standards should be lowered " was embraced whole heartedly by the private market, not pushed on them.

But, yep, to the extent the government and GSE's were involved, Democrats have more to answer for on that.

The poor and less fortunate didn’t cause this mess. Unregulated banking — in the mortgage subsector did.

"Unregulated banking" is an unsubstantiated claim. The financial industry was following the lead set for them by the GSE's guaranteeing the mortgages http://ur.lc/5vf. That is, their clear signal to lower lending standards with full backing of the GSE's.. which themselves were/are backed by taxpayers who never got a say in the matter. Dems took the lead to intimidate those who questioned the irresponsible lending practices pushed by the GSE's as the video I linked, and many other videos on youtube make clear

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers.

What could go wrong??

GSE’s were minor players in the bad loans business.

Were they? Weren't they guaranteeing the lion's share of $400k and under mortgage loans? What percentage of homes sold 2000 - 2006 were $400k and under? I agree that the private banks/loan companies went along for the ride, but Fannie/Freddie guarantees are the only reason the bubble inflated as large as it did

ZippyDDoodah says

What could go wrong??

Nothing. Actual loan underwriting -- verifying the borrower had income to service the loan -- was what went missing in the last decade. The signal failure of the system 2002-2006 was the Alt-A subsector, where borrowers with good credit ratings were allowed to go stated income to avoid DTI limits and also layer risk with IO or even negative-am products.

“Unregulated banking” is an unsubstantiated claim

"What you had here is a regulatory motif that was too accommodating to private-sector interests," said Jim Leach, a former Republican lawmaker who led what was then the House Banking Committee and now lectures in public affairs at Princeton University. "In this case, the end result is chaos for the industry, their customers and the national interest."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/22/AR2008112202213_pf.html

What percentage of homes sold 2000 - 2006 were $400k and under?

Since you are in a data-driven, fact-based mood now, let me lay this graph on you:

This lays out the existing market for loan products with resets, and shows you the relative contributions to the bubble by dollar volume.

The green and yellow portions of this charting are the suicide Option ARMs and Alt-A lending that went on 3 to 5 years ago. GSE lending in this area is the brick-red portions.

ZippyDDoodah says

but Fannie/Freddie guarantees are the only reason the bubble inflated as large as it did

This is a laughable assertion. Alt-A is Alt-A because the GSEs wouldn't take these otherwise prime loans. IMO the bubble inflated unsustainably 2005-2006 due to the ability of anyone to take out as many RE loans as they wanted for whatever amount of money they wanted, with Casey Serin's $2M loan haul being indicative of the fraud potential, if not a particularly high watermark for the time.

Countrywide, WaMu, and the rest of the lenders on the Mortgage Implode O Meter were not killed by the GSEs, quite the opposite.

It was the OTS with oversight responsibility over the big lenders in the mortgage field, the same OTS that was happy taking garden shears to "red tape" in 2003.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/11/wapo-regulatory-failure-at-office-of.html

and otherwise resisting calls to rein in the industry.

OTS was hesitant to sign on ... [John] Reich, the new director of OTS, warned against excessive intervention. He cautioned that the government should not interfere with lending by thrifts "who have demonstrated that they have the know-how to manage these products through all kinds of economic cycles."

http://www.slate.com/id/2195218

Even as housing was melting down, Washington encouraged and enabled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do more. As part of the stimulus package passed earlier this year, the caps on the size of mortgages Fannie and Freddie were permitted to back were lifted from $417,000 to $729,000. And as lenders have disappeared from the field, Fannie and Freddie have reassumed their leadership roles. In the second quarter of 2006, Fannie and Freddie accounted for 37.7 percent of mortgage bonds issued, a record low. But in the first quarter of 2008, the two firms accounted for nearly 70 percent of all new mortgages.

GSE's encouraged the bubble. In 2008 they financed 70% of all new mortgages with taxpayers on the hook. The debate is settled except among the leftist ideologues who won't acknowledge basic facts

OTS was hesitant to sign on … [John] Reich, the new director of OTS, warned against excessive intervention. He cautioned that the government should not interfere with lending by thrifts “who have demonstrated that they have the know-how to manage these products through all kinds of economic cycles.”

I think we're in basic agreement on this part in that we (presumably you) opposed the govt's TARP bailout of banks. If you will recall, TARP was championed by Bush and Democrats, opposed ONLY by House Republicans. Which supports my main point - both sides are not "equally" guilty here

"But in the first quarter of 2008, the two firms accounted for nearly 70 percent of all new mortgages."

This is because the regular lending industry had blown itself up in 2007. Sheez. What planet were you living on until you showed up here?

Salinas, CA was ground zero for creative financing, and its market turned in January 2006:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/680-San-Bruno-Way-Salinas-CA-93901/19346981_zpid/

By early 2008 the market had already fallen 50% as the negative-am lenders and loan funders had removed themselves from the market.

ZippyDDoodah says

http://www.slate.com/id/2195218

Even as housing was melting down, Washington encouraged and enabled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to do more. As part of the stimulus package passed earlier this year, the caps on the size of mortgages Fannie and Freddie were permitted to back were lifted from $417,000 to $729,000. And as lenders have disappeared from the field, Fannie and Freddie have reassumed their leadership roles. In the second quarter of 2006, Fannie and Freddie accounted for 37.7 percent of mortgage bonds issued, a record low. But in the first quarter of 2008, the two firms accounted for nearly 70 percent of all new mortgages.

GSE’s encouraged the bubble. In 2008 they financed 70% of all new mortgages with taxpayers on the hook. The debate is settled except among the leftist ideologues who won’t acknowledge basic facts

LOL, as I pointed out above the market was already TWO YEARS into its present decline by 2008. GSE's share in 2008 HAD NO EFFECT on the bubble since the bubble WAS LONG GONE BY THEN.

Do you actually have a brain ZippyDDoodah or are you just a troll? It's very difficult to determine here, help a brother out.

ZippyDDoodah says

OTS was hesitant to sign on … [John] Reich, the new director of OTS, warned against excessive intervention. He cautioned that the government should not interfere with lending by thrifts “who have demonstrated that they have the know-how to manage these products through all kinds of economic cycles.”

I think we’re in basic agreement on this part in that we (presumably you) opposed the govt’s TARP bailout of banks. If you will recall, TARP was championed by Bush and Democrats, opposed ONLY by House Republicans. Which supports my main point - both sides are not “equally” guilty here

I have no opinion on TARP. I don't pretend I can run a fifteen trillion dollar economy. "I don't have any solution but I certainly admire the problem".

This is because the regular lending industry had blown itself up in 2007. Sheez. What planet were you living on until you showed up here?

You're not making sense with your backtracking. Your orginal assertion was that "unregulated" private banking was the larger problem. I claimed that it was the GSE's and the environment which they fostered and guaranteed. That claim still stands.. and yours, not so much

LOL, as I pointed out above the market was already TWO YEARS into its present decline by 2008. GSE’s share in 2008 HAD NO EFFECT on the bubble since the bubble WAS LONG GONE BY THEN.

Yet you're unwilling to acknowlege that GSE's set lending standards well before 2008.

ZippyDDoodah says

Weren’t they guaranteeing the lion’s share of $400k and under mortgage loans?

Yes. But I said **BAD** loans. The lions share of bad loans were not under any GSE's guarantee.

ZippyDDoodah says

I agree that the private banks/loan companies went along for the ride, but Fannie/Freddie guarantees are the only reason the bubble inflated as large as it did

That's nonsense. Went along for the ride? They were the _main drivers_ of bad housing loans. We had a commercial RE bubble too, and now tons of bad CRE loans. CRE prices went up right along with housing prices, by about the same percentage amount. You going to pin that on GSEs and the Dems too? And the property bubbles in the UK, Spain, Ireland, Australia.... just by random chance at *exactly* the same time? It's all the GSEs, the Democrats, and Barney Frank?

It's completely absurd that people are still regurgitating this crap.

I have no opinion on TARP

Nice evasion of the largest, most sweeping govt. legislation in modern history. "I have no opinion because, well, I don't think for myself"

Yes. But I said **BAD** loans. The lions share of bad loans were not under any GSE’s guarantee.

Please cite or eat crow.

ZippyDDoodah says

This is because the regular lending industry had blown itself up in 2007. Sheez. What planet were you living on until you showed up here?

You’re not making sense with your backtracking. Your orginal assertion was that “unregulated” private banking was the larger problem. I claimed that it was the GSE’s and the environment which they fostered and guaranteed. That claim still stands.. and yours, not so much

Unregulated banking worked until it didn't. In my worldview, government oversight of the market is very similar to a the governor on a steam engine that prevents the machine from feedback cycle that would result in immense damage to itself and its vicinity.

Loans being funded without proper underwriting was the larger (if not core) problem, 2002-2007. This worked incredibly well as long as prices were going up, up, up, and of course the free-money lending contributed to the price rise itself, a virtuous cycle to start in 2002-2003 and a nasty feedback loop once we were riding the tiger in 2004-2005.

When prices levelled off in 2006, the business model would no longer work and the Implode O Meter started accruing its grim harvest once the machine started going piecewise in 2007-2008.

ZippyDDoodah says

I have no opinion on TARP

Nice evasion of the largest, most sweeping govt. legislation in modern history. “I have no opinion because, well, I don’t think for myself”

GMAFB. Only idiots or ideologues (but I repeat myself) have opinions on things they don't really understand. The theory behind representative government is that we elect people to run sh--. My job is making software, not captaining the most powerful, wealth-producing economy the world has ever seen.

Unregulated banking worked until it didn’t.

That is so brilliantly insightful.. for unthinking morons who are predisposed to believe this kind of BS

My job is making software, not captaining the most powerful, wealth-producing economy the world has ever seen.

Nice evasion to a basic question presented to you.. which you had posted about! "It's not my job to know that!!"

ZippyDDoodah says

LOL, as I pointed out above the market was already TWO YEARS into its present decline by 2008. GSE’s share in 2008 HAD NO EFFECT on the bubble since the bubble WAS LONG GONE BY THEN.

Yet you’re unwilling to acknowlege that GSE’s set lending standards well before 2008.

Yes, and borrowers were able to avoid them by finding Alt-A and Option ARMs! The GSE book of business AVOIDED these products during the bubble run-up of 2002-2005!

From a random comment I've found from late 2007:

Freddie had 86% fixed rate, 91% owner-occupied and overall the garbage ratio is relatively small: 8% Alt-A, 9% IO and 1% option ARM note: due to the overlap of categories percentages are not additive). The problem FRE has is that the 38% of its book concentrated in '06 and '07 vintages has very different characteristics from the overall book: 39% Alt-A, 44% IO and 14% option ARM.

Freddie started getting into the junk lending AFTER the bubble had already peaked in 2005. I think this was due to the GSEs having to pick up the slack the private industry was leaving by the latters' untimely demise.

Good day sir. I've said about all I care to now.