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Are High Speed Trains the Transportation for the Future?


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2006 Dec 11, 12:49pm   24,338 views  137 comments

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Paul asks:

For a new thread I’d be interested in hearing thoughts on transportation and how it impacts where we live. One thing I think about is if we could actually have REAL high speed rail in this country, perhaps that would open up more housing choice. It always blows me away when you can’t ride a train into the city center like when Amtrak drops you off in Emryville instead of SF. I thought at one point CA was leading the charge on this topic - http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/

#housing

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81   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 5:58am  

I don't know about a right of way ¼ mile wide. that would be exaggerating by about 10x I would think -- not that FAB is known for doing that ;)

the right of way could virtually be 10 metres wide, even allowing for transit in both directions...

82   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 6:00am  

In a zero sum game of life, where do profits come from?

largely from fleecing philippines villagers for gold, copper and hardwood reources in 99:1 profit-sharing relationships in the present, I believe...

and swapping beads for land, and other such, in the past...

83   speedingpullet   2006 Dec 12, 6:04am  

Different Sean Says:

speedingpullet, eburbed was being wry before with his ‘freedom’ comment…

LOL! No $hit... ;-)

Still, its not every day that I get to use a version of my favourite all-time joke as a reply...

On a related note - the UK is starting to re-vamp its antiquated rail system - especially for freight. Plans are afoot to add spur lines to larger manufacturing outlets, so that freight can be easliy transported across the UK and into Europe. Planners are finally figuring out that on islands the size of the United Kingdom, road tansport is slow, expensive and wasteful.

As Robert Cote points out, freight rail is still the most cost effective way of getting stuff from A to B.

84   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:06am  

But I imagine there will be similar issues with a high speed train.

No such issues with Acela. Even $150/RT to LA on HST can be very attractive. But even at that price, it is difficult to break-even.

85   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:09am  

If you figure an average price of $200K an acre it will cost about $12 Billion for the land plus another few Billion for legal costs to take the land through eminent domain.

On the bright side, land along the route will get a boost in value. So new suburbs can be established and new condo communities can be built. The sale of housing can pay for some of the costs.

86   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:11am  

Let's say 10000 units can be build directly above or around each HST station. At an average of $100K profit per unit and 5 of these hubs, $5B can be brought in.

87   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 6:17am  

HARM Says:

This is probably going to be the transportation of the future (if they can ever get FAA approval):

http://www.moller.com/newm.htm

It even gets decent mileage (est. 20 MPG) which will no doubt improve over time. And since you will not be stuck for hours in gridlock, it will save gas over any ground-based car, even today’s most efficient hybrid.

I see the last item on the features list is 'emergency parachutes' -- that's a good inclusion, given that they'll probably needed a lot as time goes by.

Unfortunately, 20 MPG is crap -- it's the same as a present-day non-hybrid motor car. A road vehicle could get 500 MPG if properly designed... even the Prius gets about 55 MPG in a combination city/highway test...

88   Glen   2006 Dec 12, 6:17am  

Couldn't you just run the rail right up the 5 fwy?

89   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:19am  

First, rail is the second most effective transport mode with pipelines being the big winners and oceangoing cargo being the third place coming on fast.

BTW, according to some reports, Artic ice will be gone by 2040. This should open new sea-routes that are presently frozen.

See, global warming is good!

90   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:20am  

Couldn’t you just run the rail right up the 5 fwy?

HST cannot go up and down Grapevine Pass.

91   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:21am  

See, global warming is good!

See, global warming (if such thing exists) is good!

92   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:26am  

According to the most reliable and latest reports Antartic ice is net accreting.

See, no global warming!

Please save the lame attempts at distraction for appropriate threads.

Huh? If I wanted distractions we would be talking about sushi already.

93   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 6:30am  

Global warming appears to be a reality, as noted by glaciers and snow lines receding further every year (also known as Global Pattern Baldness). The jury is out on whether Antarctic ice is increasing or decreasing at present. Warmer oceans melt it, precipitation adds to it.

I assure you, if temperatures continue to increase, eventually Antarctic ice will be gone. In the age of the dinosaurs, the average global temperature was 16° higher, the seas were 200 ft higher, and there were no global icecaps at all...

94   salk   2006 Dec 12, 6:30am  

Different Sean, atomic/rocket technology is courtesy of Hungarian trained scientists (Szillard, Edward teller, Neumann), and a few Germans and Italians. Oppenheimer? a real lightweight who likely colluded with the Communists. But my point is that such a systme would have to be run very autocratically outside the scope of political correctness and beyond the reach of trial/civil rights attorneys so that the best/brightest could run it. Furthermore for it to be available to the masses, the safety of its citizens must be guaranteed. (Not in this politically correct society.)

95   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 6:37am  

The I-5 and CA-99 become Autobahns. The rest is an exercise for the reader.

First, the I-5/CA-152 cloverleaf needs some collector-distributor roads.

96   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 6:45am  

very contradictory stuff, 'doc1'. what are you a doc of, by the way?

oppenheimer was a 'real' lightweight compared to...?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Oppenheimer

I would have thought the involvement of trial attorneys is one way of safeguarding the public reliably... isn't that after all how the whole OH&S and public safety movement began? fear of law suits?

and so on...

97   Bruce   2006 Dec 12, 6:53am  

First the northern terminus is Oakland...

See. They always do this. Southern terminus is probably Burbank or equivalent.

98   EBGuy   2006 Dec 12, 7:04am  

RC: First the northern terminus is Oakland…

Bruce: See. They always do this. Southern terminus is probably Burbank or equivalent.

Common folks, don't believe everything RC tells you.
http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/route/default.asp

99   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 7:06am  

20MPG is indeed nothing special

It is fine for me if it is better than 10mpg.

100   HARM   2006 Dec 12, 7:11am  

@Peter P,

The future:

1. Hover cars
2. Teleportation
3. Time tunnel

Now THAT'S what I'm talkin' about!

101   HARM   2006 Dec 12, 7:14am  

Human teleportation would be wonderful, though I think I'd wait until 2nd or 3rd generation technology to try it. After they've worked out all the really major bugs, like accidentally teleporting you into a wall, or "losing" body parts during transit.

102   Bruce   2006 Dec 12, 7:16am  

The route map looks just like the old Trans Europe Express.

The TEE dallied around the Benelux countries for a while, tarried at both Cologne and Bonn, passed through Switzerland like a streak, and then stopped at every chicken coop between the Italian border and Florence. Express cum local.

Case closed.

103   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 7:17am  

Human teleportation would be wonderful, though I think I’d wait until 2nd or 3rd generation technology to try it.

I will NEVER trust human teleportation. There are serious philosophical problems associated with it.

I do want some teleported sea urchins though.

104   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 7:18am  

yes. of course, we all know that these would in all reality be limited use vehicles for things like snow patrols or emergency rescue or possibly some sort of limited executive travel option, as long as people were prepared to do all the pilots training. this thing is the equivalent of a single-engined cessna, with all the restrictions that go with operating a light plane. clearly you could not just back one of these things out of your suburban garage and take off (and land at the shopping centre 1 km away), as it's a little hard to do lane markings in the sky. and I think single-engined light planes are the most dangerous class of fixed-wing aircraft in terms of accidents?

I think the time is coming when there won't be many petrol-driven vehicles around anymore, and 20MPG (or 10) will be seen as an impossible resource hog, all ethanol and Avgas etc will have to come from organic sources, electric motors and hydrogen fuel cells will be all the rage, and so on...

105   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 7:19am  

“losing” body parts during transit

I am very sorry sir, we are unable to find your left kidney at the moment. It may still be in the quantum stream. Do you have a claim check, sir?

106   DinOR   2006 Dec 12, 7:21am  

HARM,

I remember a friend showed me the Moller Skycar years ago. It's amazing that they've actually stuck with it and delivered on the proto-type! One of my big concerns is that unlike a rotary wing aircraft (helicopter) these VSTOL (Very Short Take-Off and Landing) gizmos have low intakes. Commercial and military aircraft operate in a very controlled environment. Even still they ingest the occaisonal "cotter pin" and b/c of the sheer RPM's quickly disintegrate. How will they work around that when landing in a parking lot or your own driveway?

Well there's a thought in dealing w/those pesky tricycles and skateboards when coming home!

107   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 7:22am  

apparently massive breakthroughs have been made in teleportation lately. star trek transporters can't be far away.

i might settle for teleconferencing for the moment. i'd be happy enough if they could do 3D hologram teleconferencing through increased bandwidth and processing capability...

108   speedingpullet   2006 Dec 12, 7:23am  

I am very sorry sir, we are unable to find your left kidney at the moment. It may still be in the quantum stream. Do you have a claim check, sir?

Yeah, I still have nightmares about 'Brundlefly'....

...though being genetically spliced with Jeff Goldbloom could be sorta cool....

109   HARM   2006 Dec 12, 7:26am  

this thing is the equivalent of a single-engined cessna, with all the restrictions that go with operating a light plane. clearly you could not just back one of these things out of your suburban garage and take off (and land at the shopping centre 1 km away), as it’s a little hard to do lane markings in the sky. and I think single-engined light planes are the most dangerous class of fixed-wing aircraft in terms of accidents?

Actually, it's designed to fly on radar and GPS-guided autopilot. No pilot's license necessary, and no input from passengers/drivers while in the air. The idea is, you taxi (on the ground) to a local airport or parking lot with FAA designated "skycar" area, punch in your destination and the autopilot software takes over. As such, it's definitely better suited for longer hauls, not short trips. This leaves a gap which highly fuel efficient ground models (such as the ones you listed) would be helpful.

110   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 7:30am  

there is the potential for responsible use of some sort of VSTOL car-plane in rural and remote settings, as SFWoman points out, although it would have to be air-traffic controlled somehow. (ATC stops you being brave and free and is therefore unconstitutional)

for instance, it might be a reasonable concept for a 'flying doctor' type service. but as soon as you have more than one of these things in an uncontrolled airspace, you have problems...

I would settle for an anti-gravity machine with no moving parts, as long as it can never fail and the force field doesn't give you cancer...

112   Doug H   2006 Dec 12, 7:30am  

Speedingbullet sez:
"Because, like a dog licking its nether reigons, we do it because we can… "

You owe me one coupon for a free monitor cleaning.....damn.....I was eating a cracker when I read that. Bad enough to clean coffee off the screen but slimy crackers are going to take a while........

113   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 7:31am  

I would settle for an anti-gravity machine with no moving parts, as long as it can never fail and the force field doesn’t give you cancer…

Then we can just bend space-time and walk over.

114   HARM   2006 Dec 12, 7:36am  

One of my big concerns is that unlike a rotary wing aircraft (helicopter) these VSTOL (Very Short Take-Off and Landing) gizmos have low intakes. Commercial and military aircraft operate in a very controlled environment. Even still they ingest the occaisonal “cotter pin” and b/c of the sheer RPM’s quickly disintegrate.

I'm no expert, but I gather that the 4 rotary engines rotate upwards in preparation for VTOL, so the intake will always be skywards. This would (hopefully) reduce the odds of suctioning in the odd skateboard or loose debris in one's driveway. In any case, the takeoff & landing areas would most likely be an airport or actively monitored "skyport" --at least until the technology is proven.

115   Different Sean   2006 Dec 12, 7:37am  

Actually, it’s designed to fly on radar and GPS-guided autopilot.

hmmm, sounds a bit sci-fi to me. too many accidents brewing there, I'm afraid. would it all run on MS-Windows to guarantee software reliability? not sure how noisy these things would be, either...

reminds me of a funny story from melbourne where some overpaid spoilt CEO type insisted on flying his helicopter from his rural retreat 40 km to the city. when his country neighbours objected to the infernal racket and unbearable elitism, he'd reply 'these are the motorcars of the future, mate!'. whereupon they got a court order and he now has to drive 20 km to the local airport to helicopter 20 km to the city... massive time saving...

116   Bruce   2006 Dec 12, 7:42am  

So would you rather have a skycar or a Tesla?

117   HARM   2006 Dec 12, 7:42am  

@SFWoman,

The difference would be you could take off from LOCAL airports, not just the big international terminals, and they would probably expand this to large, monitored parking lots as well (think Skyports at shopping malls, municipal parking lots, parks & recreational areas, etc.). As time went on and the technology proved itself acceptably safe to the public, I bet this list would expand greatly.

Taking off from one's driveway might even be a possibility one day, thanks to ultra-cheap reliable GPS. However, I doubt the FAA will go for this anytime soon.

118   HARM   2006 Dec 12, 7:44am  

@Bruce,

Are you referring to this?: http://www.teslamotors.com/index.php?js_enabled=1

119   Peter P   2006 Dec 12, 7:45am  

So would you rather have a skycar or a Tesla?

A Tesla? One that duplicates you?

120   Bruce   2006 Dec 12, 7:46am  

Oh yes I am...

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