patrick.net

dryfly,

Good stuff, after it's all said and done this HAS been a monumental waste of resources! I was reading a link (somewhere) that is already addressing decor that is falling out of fashion! So..... I guess we'll learn to live with that ultra hip pedestal sink, nah! We'll give it the "deep six" along with that bamboo flooring and pergraniteel!

Just incredible. A sink should last a good 20-30 years, no? We once kidded that the granite counter tops could be recycled to make tomb stones for FB's!

I must admit it's encouraging to even see folks debating the merits of various tax def. accounts again. Gosh that is SO refreshing! After oh....gee about 7 years of total RE dominance just hearing this stuff is music to my ears.

All this time the flippers have been guffawing the whole notion of "saving" or retirement accounts b/c they KNEW RE would be their ticket our of the work force!

I think it is highly unlikely that the US government would double tax Roth IRA savings. The US gov't has historically been very wary of retroactively taxing and Roth IRA is not a big enough pot of money to bend the precedents over - esp. since Roth is only available to relatively low income people.

I'm actually more wary of 401K tax risks.

However, this is just my personal opinion and not investment/savings advice.

I’d love to hear what others think about that strategy - sounds reasonable to me.

I'm all in 401k Regular.

I've thought about a Roth 401k (my company offers it) - but I'm not convinced that my tax rate will be higher in the future than now.

Of course, I'll probably be wrong as we'll need to pay for the Iraq War somehow.

On Roth vs trad IRA

But if your income is high now and expected to be lower in the future s.t. your tax rates decline, then a traditional IRA is the thing to do (avoid taxes now - worry about later, later).

Another wrinkle to the Roth vs. traditional IRA is whether or not you are itemizing or just taking the standard deductions. For now, my wife and I are childless, don't have a mortgage or business, so we must take the standard. Outside of a few tax-free govt. bonds and the occasional educational credit, we basically have no non-retirement itemized deductions to speak of. For us, the traditional IRA & 401k deductions are pretty much it.

Personally, I seriously doubt our effective income tax rate will go up during retirement. In fact, I pretty much expect it to fall, as it does for most retired seniors (living on fixed incomes & retirement accounts), so a traditional Roth makes the most sense in our situation for at least two reasons. If and when we buy a house and/or have children, this situation could change.

Zillow stubbornly lists my neighbor's house $200K above the last transaction, which happened about 5 months ago. Sometimes, I can even find it listing valuation $100-200K higher than transaction record just a month ago.

I have no idea why a house deserves to "appreciate" 10% or more of its value within 4 weeks of its most recent transaction in a DOWN market.

But cyberhome is even better, according to CH, your house "appreciates" even faster. Both service must be taking in advertising dollars and sponsorship money, you can well imagine where the revenue source of these guys is coming from.

Did anyone else see today's lead story in the WSJ? "Speculators Helped Fuel Florida's Housing Boom" (No, do you really think?)

"The frenzied run up prompted economists at banking concern National City Corp. and economic consulting firm Global Insight Inc. to label Naples "the most overvalued housing market" in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2005, a dubious honor it retains. Today, prices are dropping, the number of unsold houses on the market has swelled to more than twice the national average and investors are scrambling to unload their properties.

Such a crescendo of activity might have prompted some to pull back*. But plenty of investors, who continued to purchase homes to rent or flip, continued to buy or sell through the height of the boom..."

*-yes, the intelligent.

HARM,

You might be glossing over the fact that a great many FB's can't even afford to make ANY contributions at all! So now that their home appreciation has flat lined they're shackled to a PITI payment that precludes divesification of any kind.

We've crossed a critical juncture here. This could be where renters pull away and not even bother to look back! Can you imagine making a $4,000 + mo. payment to fill a black hole while your renting co-workers are socking away $100, $200, $500 a payday? Wow.

The summary is that over 1 in every 3 houses (38%) nationwide, their Zestimate is off by more than 10%. In the Bay area 1 in every 4 homes (24%) is off by more than 10%.

Despite this, many people cling to Zillow as if it were the end all be all of valuations.

What's funny is that Zillow has developed a rep.

Some feel that Zillow grossly overestimates.
Some feel that Zillow grossly underestimates.

Zillow can't win.

From WSJ forums:

http:/s.wsj.com/viewtopic.php?t=185&autoredirect=true&sid=f528b338399fe3c9459afdc3564ee429

The value of my home has skyrocketed, thanks to President Bush and his wonderful economic policies. The recent soft landing has only slowed the increase.

Tom Boucher

Uh... um...

I prefer looking at propertyshark. They have previous sale records and grant deed sales, so you can see when couples are flipping a property back and forth between each other (I am assuming for equity extraction, maybe there is another reason?). You can set up a free account and get an amazing amount of information on properties.

As far as Zillow having incorrect info on properties, I am assuming it is the info that is on file with the municipality. Zillow has my city place having one fewer bathroom than it actually has. I am assuming the other was added after 1908 an it was never recorded. Propertyshark has the exact same info on the place, so I assume they both sourced it from an inaccurate city record.

@DinOR,

Yes, we can debate the relative merits of 401k vs. Roth vs. trad IRA amongst ourselves all day long. But for the large majority of FBs, this is all moot because they are saving nothing. Actually, less than nothing, hence negative national savings rate.

eburbed,

So when the price of his house comes down it will be because Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House and her San Francisco values?

So when the price of his house comes down it will be because Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House and her San Francisco values?

It's because of those hispanic muslims gays.

HARM,

Yes, but the FBs are enjoying life. You wouldn't want to be in your 30s or 40s and be a solvent RENTER, would you? Better to be a McDebtor homeOwner than face the shame and embarrassment of having to admit that you do not participate in the American Dream. Remember, debt makes you rich.

eburbed,

Yes, they are troublesome.

But for the large majority of FBs, this is all moot because they are saving nothing. Actually, less than nothing, hence negative national savings rate.

One of my colleagues once countered with: "Isn't paying a mortgage considered savings?"

Um...

Yeah, uh when you buy into the "you should be borrowing all the money you can get your hands on and buying as much house as you possibly can" school of thought it does have a tendency to limit one's self.

Better to be a McDebtor homeOwner than face the shame and embarrassment of having to admit that you do not participate in the American Dream.

I might do it just to get my parents off my back. :(

"At least you'll own something after 30 years instead of paying rent forever!" - gah! stop it!

SFWoman,

Minor correction, please?

FB's "were" enjoying life.

It was funny b/c the wife and I went to the OR coast this Sunday to see the storms (pretty cool) and after lunch got a bunch of RE mags. The newest development (believe this or not) was for 1,100 to 1,700 sq. ft. cottages just outside of Depot Bay. They were priced "Starting at $184,500" on 7,000 sq. ft. lots. True, they don't have a "pee-a-boo" beach view but it looks like a real nice area and is only about 1/2 mile to the beach. Isn't this what living by the beach was supposed to be about? Simple?

DinOR,

That actually sounds cute. Although, I remember seeing beach houses near Cannon Beach for about $35,000 when I lived in Oregon (~1991).

1/2 mile might be beach front after a good temblor/tsunami.

Palo Alto Renter,

People hit the 35% income tax bracket pretty quickly, around $70K for singles. The upper limit for Roth IRA contribution is around $95K. So the "upper income bracket" issue can come up periodically.

I can attest to the damage done by the "urge to own." Many of my boyfriend's coworkers who "own" can't even afford to contribute up to his employer's rather measly match (I don't remember the exact amount - maybe $1,000 or $2,000 a year). Most of his coworkers complain when the company deposits their year end bonuses to 401K rather than give them the money.

@SP,

RE graphic: You're welcome :-) .

But judging from the quality of contribution here, a lot of bubblesitters are very concerned about their retirement accounts.

I recently set up my company Roth 401K account and had the Fidelity rep tell me that Roth 401K is so much better than traditional 401K because I don't have to pay tax at the end of it. I guess he forgot about time value of money for all the income taxes paid before the money went into Roth 401K.

I think this mentality might shed some light on people who think owning after 30 years of rent payment is always a good thing.

eburbed,

Tell your parents that if they want you to "own" that badly, they can pay the downpayment, transactional costs, and the difference between rent and your monthly PITI for an equivalent place. Otherwise, politely inform them that they have no controlling authority over money you've made.

Better to be a McDebtor homeOwner than face the shame and embarrassment of having to admit that you do not participate in the American Dream.

It never ceases to amaze me how large a chunk of the population really believes this, heart and soul without question. Really, I would love to see a Gallup do a national poll that asks the following questions:

1. Which crime would you rather admit to having committed to your family & friends?:
a. being a child molester
b. being an executive at Enron, Tyco or Adelphia
c. being a renter

2. Which would be a worse fate:
Being a life-long renter or getting beheaded by Al Queda on live T.V.?

3. After 9 straight years of a booming real estate market, why do you think it is that some people still don't "own"?
a. they hate America/freedom
b. too stupid/illiterate to sign name to neg-am loan docs
c. we've finally run out of land

I would be interested if anyone here has any knowledge about converting (if at all) retirement accounts (IRA, 401K, Roth) during emigrating to Canada or Australia. This is actually a very serious for me since I'd like to get out of this country one day, hopefully soon.

SFWoman,

They're also at a fairly good elevation on the east side of Hwy 101. I've lived in beach communities of and on for years and believe me, if you live within 1/2 mile you're going to see ALL the beach you can stand. Nice to get in from the wind a little too.

I just thought it was so funny that with all these high dollar monsters "rubber necking" for a glimpse of the waves that someone introduced a development that actually made some sense. Many of the beach towns are just dead Mon-Thur and only come to life during the weekends and summer months. Many of the high dollar homes in the Tsunami Zone look ancient when they're only a year or two old.

HARM,

I think being a renter is more like Autism or Cretinism than outright criminality. They should be showered with compassion and encouraged to buy (even if doing so would annihilate JBR's rational little minds). It's really not the renters' fault that they can't get ahead like everybody else.

astrid,

I've had friends and neighbors etc. liquidate IRA's when going to the P.I and other tropical places. One did have a problem when he re-entered the U.S for a funeral and they've been making life difficult for him ever since. Be careful here.

@astrid,

:lol: Such compassion! Yes, yes --renterism is more like a social disease... sort of like alcoholism or drug abuse. Perhaps what we need is a 12-Step program. Rentaholic's Anonymous.

Hello, my name is HARM and I'm a lifelong JBR...

Here's a great article that compares Roth 401k to Plain 401k:

http://www.pcarbi.org/retirement/Roth%20403b/TaxDiversificationandRoth403b.pdf

It really depends on how you feel tax trends will go. If you think we're going to be paying 50% of our income in taxes when we retire, Roth is for you.

dryfly,

Well.... I'm sure there are plenty of people that just "fall off the radar" right here in the good old U.S by simply no longer filing! Actually that may be safer b/c you don't have "Customs issues" going to OR? Least not yet.

A lot of people say, well if I leave I'm "never" coming back! That's easier said than done b/c either it's family or it's health issues but either way trust me they won't have just forgotten about your prematurely liquidating your IRA's!

Who should adopt?
High-replacement-income participants. Our general
rule of thumb is that any participant who is wellprepared
for retirement is a good candidate for Roth
savings. These are participants who are “on track”
to generate a high level of replacement income in
retirement. Conversely, any participant who is not
well-prepared and expects to rely mostly on Social
Security benefits should probably remain with
pre-tax savings.

Who are the “well-prepared”? They are participants
who have accumulated substantial private retirement
benefits and savings on top of Social Security. They
are participants who are saving adequately on their
own (above the Vanguard median participant savings
rate of 6%) and receive generous employer defined
benefit (DB) and DC benefits, or who are saving
at double-digit rates and receive an employer
401(k) match.
Why does the Roth feature make sense for the wellprepared?
The well-prepared have a higher probability
of being in the same tax bracket in retirement. They
also are exposed to the risk of higher tax rates in
retirement—whether triggered by the current rules
on Social Security taxation or by any possible future
tax increase enacted by Congress.

Yes, and don’t make too much income or else you can’t have a Roth… that’s another good way to decide. :)

This is a Roth 401k - there's no income limit. It's just whether your company offers it or not.

astrid,

I think there is no reason why you should convert 401K or Roth out of the country. The only thing I would like to stop paying is SS and medicare, because I will never see my money back. But 401K and Roth, IRA are mine, I get to determine how to invest and the US is still the best place for investment.

If you are going to Australia, you will find the Aussie capital market quite limited in investment options and rather inefficient. Down under people are still putting money into unit trust (a dumb version of mutual fund) with a standard 5% upfront load and a standard 1-2% annual management fee. No load funds are rare, and even rarer are ETFs. Most of my Aussie friends invest their money in the American stock market, even if their money is parked on Aussie assets, sounds strange right? Here is why. The US market gives you the widest access of investment options in all parts of the world through ADRs, ETFs, mutual funds etc., and the transaction cost is by far the lowest while the trading volume is multiple x of that of any other country, which means you can get in and out of the market much more efficiently. If the American financial system falls apart, I can tell you there are really no places to hide out elsewhere in the world.

If you are heading to Australia, don't give up your American citizenship yet, because giving up your US citizenship will shut you off access to many mutual funds that are ONLY available to Americans. As an American living overseas, you get a tax break for the first $80K earned, so if you are not making very high income yet, the extra tax you pay is very minimal. When you are making serious dough, that's when you start to consider giving up your American citizenship. Australia permits dual citizenship, so there is really no hurry. Plus, you can also give your future kids an option to come back to the mothership, if she hasn't sunk by then :-)

Foreclosures increase 51 percent nationwide

Nationwide, almost 971,000 foreclosure filings were reported last year, 51 percent more than the 641,000 in 2005, according to the annual report.

Foreclosures are exploding, but according to Alexis McGee:

"Home inventories now are dropping and markets are improving," she said in a news release. "That means relief to overextended homeowners who bought homes they could not afford with the help of little money down and low teaser-rate mortgages. Until now, with mortgage payments adjusting upward, housing inventories climbing and prices stagnating, these homeowners have had few options but to lose their house to foreclosure or capture some of their equity with a fresh start with a quick, honest investor purchase."

How could foreclosures be exploding at the same time inventories dropping?

Then she goes on to saying:

The current housing market may be the best opportunity for home shoppers in the next six years, McGee said.

Now remember, when the housing market is booming, the foreclosure market is non-existent. It is a very bad time for McGees company foreclosures.com. When the market is crashing like it is and foreclosures are exploding, it still is a bad time for the foreclosure market because as long as investors believe that the market will get worse, they don't want to buy foreclosures because they really don't know what the market will be like when it comes time to resell the properties, so her company will still suffer.

It is only when the market is starting to recover (when we truely hit bottom) that the foreclosure market becomes profitable again; thus be a boom time for McGee's company. This is why McGee is acting optimistic about the market even though we are no where near the bottom.

Just like Lereah is feeding propaganda to generate transactions, so is McGee!

eburbed,

both my wife and I wouldn't have made into our college if we were not lucky enough to be born at least a decade earlier, thanks to our parents. Our SAT and GRE scores would be a disgrace to the school.

both my wife and I wouldn’t have made into our college if we were not lucky enough to be born at least a decade earlier, thanks to our parents. Our SAT and GRE scores would be a disgrace to the school.

At the end of the day, succeeding in America really means being born at the right time by the right parents.

To have been born in time to buy a house in CA before Prop 13. Now that would've been awesome.

allah,

Agreed. We're a long way from foreclosures being attractive. At best you'd be side stepping the commissions and a few other normal closing costs but over all, they're no bargain.