patrick.net

SQT Says:

"I think we’re on the front lines of a big bust."
_____

But how can that be? Financial guru/talk-host Bob Brinker says everything is fine with housing and if you're a housing bubble advocate, you're tantamount to a paranoid wingnut or simpleton.

And whatever Bob says, I believe.

Why, if he said snow was black, I'd drink the Kool-Aid and swallow it hook, line and Brinker, I mean sinker. After all, he's the mighthy fricken Bob Brinker who called the market when no one else could find their economic
a-- from a hole in the ground!

Then, on second thought, what if SQT is right?

SQT,

Your husband's friend seems to be suffering from a severe case of "leveragitis"? I've had friends in that "cat bird seat" where every SB in their region is "feeding" them clients big time. From what you've shared your husband doesn't strike me as one of those guys that would actually enjoy the supreme irony of this guys situation? Can we here suggest that he lighten up and live a little?

Think of it this way. During "The Great Re-Fi Craze" this MB was making "big fat stacks" GIVING away borrowed money at 4-5%! Guys like Mr. SQT (and myself) were trying to get by SELLING a 4-5% return!

So...... getting paid 2 points on "borrowed money" at rates so low you had to go back to the 1950's for a comparison OR feeling fortunate to get 1 pt. on "after tax" investable assets makes perfect sense? Sure! Sounds right to me.

Person,

Depends on the environment. Back in the early 90's (with sterling credit) our mortgage WAS at 8%! This is the corner the REIC has painted themselves into. The buying public has been acclimated to believe that 5-6% 30 yr. FRM IS the "standard". As per my post above see how much fun it is to "sell" 8-9% money in a market of declining home values.

Yeah, it'd be a lot like that.

"A Harris poll conducted last year that ranked occupations in terms of prestige placed real estate brokers at the very bottom of a list of 23 professions. (Firefighters and doctors were at the top.)

Brokers themselves seem well aware that their business isn’t always held in very high regard. The National Association of Realtors has an advertising campaign called “Someone You Can Trust,” which stresses that Realtors are subject to mandatory ethics training. “Not many professionals can claim that on their résumé,” the ads read."

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/realestate/28cover.html?_r=2&ref=realestate&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

It's funny, the three people I know who are Realtors are all nice and quite honest people, but I did encounter a couple of scumbags when I first moved here and was looking for a place. I looked at one of the Painted Ladies on Alamo Square (famous in postcards, has gentrified a bit, but still rough) and the Realtor kept telling me it was a great, 'prestige' neighborhood. "Then why does everyone around look like a Blood or a Crip?"

I also have a friend who bought a gorgeous house in the city, and has discovered over $1 million in undisclosed dry rot and water and termite damage. Apparently the seller's agent has two lawsuits against him at this moment for not disclosing known defects.

Is there anywhere where you can find out about dishonest Realtors?

I wonder how sticky the prices will be on these houses?

also, I wonder how there is going to be a spring bounce when foreclosures are at a 52 year high, sub-prime lenders are going under and lending standards tightening up. Seems like a lot of different $hit is hitting the fan at the same time; what a mess!

New thread: The Sci-fi Housing Bubble Future

SP,

Just like sibling rivalry, you can only stop your wife's behavior if you start acting exactly the same way, except worse. When she calls you out on the behavior, call her out and hopefully you can establish a truce.

WARNING: While this may constitute advice, it may go horribly wrong and result in cold dinner, nights on the sofa, and in extreme cases, divorce and/or dismemberment. Proceed at your own risk.

When she calls you out on the behavior, call her out and hopefully you can establish a truce.

That can't get no truce.

People are still a little scared about not buying in if they haven’t yet, but foreclosures are going through the roof.

They have to be very scared about buying for the bubble to really burst. Foreclosure is an indicator that future psychological shock is building up.

Trust me, by the time the bubble burst, many people on this blog will have lost interest in buying.

Realtors are getting mighty desperate

SQT:

I wasn't quoting Brinker, just giving the gist of his remarks.

I think Brinkers words were "Cassandras," in regard to the housing bubble implosion advocates.

He cited some stats that sounded more like a dead-cat-bounce, than a bonafide base being set on prices.

All in all, Brinker seemed irritated at housing bubble believers.

Oh, well. Whatever. Nevermind.

SQT,

Then you definitely married a CLASS GUY! I realize they are friends and all but the quickest way to no longer be "my" friend is to pretend to be oblivious to your good fortune!

If you're knocking down major bucks in a down cycle (whatever the industry) you've got genuine bragging rights! Having a horse shoe in your back pocket b/c the Fed took rates to 1% and you happen to have a "free money" placard on your desk does *not constitute "skills".

SP,

Oops. Next thing I know, I get slapped with a libel suit from Mrs. SP...

But yeah, so I've been told (hey, maybe I could start my own libel case -- KIDDING!). Well, it works(kind of), with my mom...until she forgets and starts all over again.

I do practice the behavior you described everytime my dad gets too cocky about his investment portfolio.

Hi_There,

Aren't those the NAHB's numbers?

I am reposting this here as well as in the latest thread
*****************************************************
The numbers that Hi_there posted are from the just released CME Case-Shiller Indices for November 2006 (please attribute your numbers in the future!). The numbers (with month to month percentages for the past two months and a year to year percentage) are at:
http://www.macromarkets.com/recent_news/articles/2007/01302007_S&P.pdf
Check out Boston… pure ugliness for the past year.
I think the Las Vegas numbers are looking so good as they haven’t had much of a chance to get “arms length” transaction numbers. New contruction isn’t included in the Case-Shiller CME Indexes. The SF Bay Area Index (which includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties) is showing increasing declines over the past two months of data (Sept/Oct, Oct/Nov).

DinOr,

Thanks - I posted that link a couple threads ago. Clearly when I was looking for work in '02 I should have been spending my time borrowing bucks and buying memberships at CME and CBOT. Oh well.

Bears got it - no worries!

Paul