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A Spring Bounce will Test Your Resolve
invite response
2007 Jan 29, 1:00am 13,043 views 101 comments
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SQT:
I wasn't quoting Brinker, just giving the gist of his remarks.
I think Brinkers words were "Cassandras," in regard to the housing bubble implosion advocates.
He cited some stats that sounded more like a dead-cat-bounce, than a bonafide base being set on prices.
All in all, Brinker seemed irritated at housing bubble believers.
Oh, well. Whatever. Nevermind.
SQT,
Then you definitely married a CLASS GUY! I realize they are friends and all but the quickest way to no longer be "my" friend is to pretend to be oblivious to your good fortune!
If you're knocking down major bucks in a down cycle (whatever the industry) you've got genuine bragging rights! Having a horse shoe in your back pocket b/c the Fed took rates to 1% and you happen to have a "free money" placard on your desk does *not constitute "skills".
SP,
Oops. Next thing I know, I get slapped with a libel suit from Mrs. SP...
But yeah, so I've been told (hey, maybe I could start my own libel case -- KIDDING!). Well, it works(kind of), with my mom...until she forgets and starts all over again.
I do practice the behavior you described everytime my dad gets too cocky about his investment portfolio.
I am reposting this here as well as in the latest thread
*****************************************************
The numbers that Hi_there posted are from the just released CME Case-Shiller Indices for November 2006 (please attribute your numbers in the future!). The numbers (with month to month percentages for the past two months and a year to year percentage) are at:
http://www.macromarkets.com/recent_news/articles/2007/01302007_S&P.pdf
Check out Boston… pure ugliness for the past year.
I think the Las Vegas numbers are looking so good as they haven’t had much of a chance to get “arms length†transaction numbers. New contruction isn’t included in the Case-Shiller CME Indexes. The SF Bay Area Index (which includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties) is showing increasing declines over the past two months of data (Sept/Oct, Oct/Nov).
DinOr,
Thanks - I posted that link a couple threads ago. Clearly when I was looking for work in '02 I should have been spending my time borrowing bucks and buying memberships at CME and CBOT. Oh well.
Bears got it - no worries!
Paul
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I can already feel it coming. A "Spring Bounce". No matter that this bounce -- really more of a pause in the correction -- won't be they type of bounce Realtors point to as typical seasonality. No matter that this bounce won't be based on fundamentals, not even on technicals, but only on hopes. Regardless, the industry message that it's now time to buy will echo through the media and shake the confidence of many who've marginally been waiting out the bubble.
And it should shake the confidence of every one of us. Or at least prod our confidence a little bit. Intelligent people always reserve some room for doubt; recognize that it's always possible that they were wrong. The bubble-sitter who lacks any doubt at all about their choice to sit it out is just as foolish as the blissfully ignorant, debt ridden bubble-buyer.
Economically, this is more an extension of price stickiness driven by market psychology. Sellers are hesitant to sell because they perceive prices are weak now, but they also perceive that prices should stabilize or go up sometime soon. In the Spring, to be precise. This should (and already is to a small degree) stimulate marginal buyers into capitulating. Call it a ratchet on the way down the correction curve.
But, don't be so hard on your fellow bubble-sitters as they inevitably voice doubts. Doubts about how sharp of a correction to expect, how fast prices will come down, how long they will need to wait. Doubts about whether it's all been worth it. These are honest questions many of us will be asking ourselves as the resolve of our convictions are tested, yet again.
Markets have a nasty tendency to remain irrational for longer than doubters are able to remain bearish. After all, if seeing the bubble for the bubble it is were so easy there wouldn't be one in the first place.
--Randy H
#housing