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Let's have some fun with the bubble


 invite response                
2007 Jan 30, 3:25pm   15,282 views  152 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Perhaps we should position ourselves for some fun after the bubble bursts.

Perhaps we should have some fun now watching the bubble burst.

Perhaps we should just have some fun. Is having fun wrong?

#bubbles

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103   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 8:58am  

Is East Palo Alto still #2 ?

That is a filthy thing to say.

104   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 9:00am  

Punchbowl: I think you're forgetting about the trim, sparky blondes whose looks never age past a vintage 40.

105   David J   2007 Jan 31, 9:03am  

FormerAptBroker said:

"I have yet to meet the owner of a vehicle with a “lift kit” (including both 4x4 Trucks and Donk Cars) that appears to have an IQ anywhere near the triple digits. There seems to be a direct correlation between stupidity and amount of lift. I’ve also notices a direct correlation between stupidity and custom wheel cost (The guys in the parking lot of Raider games with gold 24” spinners all seem like they dropped out of school in the 3rd grade)… "

I've made the same observation over the years. Here are a few other things may be inversely proportional to IQ.

>The number and cost of after market accesories on your vehicle
>The size of your belt buckle
>The amount of jewelry worn at one time
>The number of tatoos a person has
>The number of body piercings a person has
>The size of your hat (applies to cowboy cultures everywhere)
>The number of sizes to big that your pants are (you droopy drawered diaper boys know who you are) etc....etc.

Of course there are exceptions to every rule.

106   Doug H   2007 Jan 31, 9:14am  

Help from Technos....

Hopefully, somebody here can give me an assist. I'm hearing impaired, not deaf, but it's difficult for me to pick up soft voices even with my hearing aids. I can adjust them and they do filter out some of the background noise....but here's the issue.

TV shows have, what's loosely called music, playing so loud I can't hear the dialogue w/o turning up the volume. CSI is the WORST offender with strange noises playing over the conversations.

Here's a regulator: http://www.tvsoundregulator.com/
I don't know if it's a gimmick or, if genuine, addresses my problem.

Can anyone point me to a solution? Thanks....

107   sobs   2007 Jan 31, 9:20am  

Brand: As long as they wear those leather pants. Spätzle also an asset. ;-)

108   StuckInBA   2007 Jan 31, 9:21am  

Indian stock market is roaring. Whether it's a bubble or not, is always being discussed. There are mutual funds here that invest in Indian stocks. Some are pure plays, some just have heavy concentration of Indian stocks.

I have no idea how trustworthy it is. Manipulation was rampant a decade ago, and there were very high profile scandals (google Harshad Mehta).

In 2003 beginning the BSE index was at 3300. Now it is at 14K. It has quadrupled in 4 years. Note : The INDEX. Individual stocks have done wonders. INFY has gone from $10 to $55 and still has a div yield of 1%, and PE of 45.

The economy is extremely strong. Not all sections have benefited, but many are genuinely richer that they were 10 years ago. A lot more people invest in stock market now.

It could be a bubble, but I was much more skeptical of dot com bubble than this. Although there is euphoria, these are real companies, with real sales and real profit. So it's scary and has unique risks.

109   e   2007 Jan 31, 9:23am  

Hopefully, somebody here can give me an assist. I’m hearing impaired, not deaf, but it’s difficult for me to pick up soft voices even with my hearing aids.

I'm hearing enabled - but I actually tend to keep the volume low and just read the CC.

Thank goodness for CC - it so allows multitasking!

110   surfer-x   2007 Jan 31, 9:24am  

Peter P, there's a really good Swiss fondue place in Saratoga called Jews Gold. There's no prices on the menu, just 7 digit numbers.

111   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 9:27am  

Peter P, there’s a really good Swiss fondue place in Saratoga called Jews Gold. There’s no prices on the menu, just 7 digit numbers.

Huh? Million dollar fondue?

112   jtfrankl   2007 Jan 31, 9:33am  

swissmiss,

Can you please site where you got that 5% figure? Did ownership plummet by 30% in the last year and a half? I am not exactly "pro-ownership", but I also don't like to see made up figures.

http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/swissinfo.html?siteSect=107&sid=6029902&cKey=1125483769000

113   e   2007 Jan 31, 9:33am  

Actually, it looks like Automatic Millionaire might have good advice:

http://www.amazon.com/Automatic-Millionaire-Powerful-One-Step-Finish/dp/0767923820/sr=8-1/qid=1170293178/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-0589820-0660138?ie=UTF8&s=books

In the early part of the book Bach builds on ideas he established in Smart Women Finish Rich and other bestselling titles. His core principle is that, to succeed, you must "Pay Yourself First." In other words, he suggests using pre-tax retirement accounts (i.e. 401(k)s, IRAs, or Roth IRAs) to set aside a fixed, monthly sum of money before considering what is left for living expenses. The "automatic" part of the title comes from Bach's emphasis on using automated payroll deductions to avoid the temptation of using the money to pay today's bills.

Bach insists that "regardless of the size of your paycheck, you probably already make enough money to become rich." But his claims that his plan requires "no budget, no discipline," is a bit disingenuous. His discussion of the "The Latte Factor" shows that, to find money to start a retirement plan, a person with a modest income needs to make an up-front commitment to stop accruing debt and to reduce spending on such "wasteful" items as lattes and cigarettes.

In the end The Automatic Millionaire does not offer much that is new for readers already familiar with personal finance basics like accelerated mortgage payments, "the miracle of compound interest," and the setting up of emergency funds. But, for those just starting with financial planning, Bach provides a host of resources to put recommendations into action. He walks his readers through such fundamentals as shopping for interest rates, creating a balanced retirement portfolio, and consolidating debt. And Bach's conversational style will make this quick read highly palatable for those daunted by more detailed investment and personal finance titles. --Patrick O'Kelley --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

I guess the housing stuff was just to bring attention.

114   requiem   2007 Jan 31, 9:48am  

swissmiss:
can you elaborate on the swiss tax structure? (e.g. what income levels are taxed at what amounts, and what benefits are provided that would be paid for with after-tax dollars here in the States?)

115   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 31, 9:48am  

Brand Says:

> Punchbowl: I think you’re forgetting about the trim,
> sparky (Swiss) blondes whose looks never age
> past a vintage 40.

It has been over 10 years since my last trip to Switzerland and just thinking about it now I can’t remember seeing a single fat person or meeting a single person that did not speak any English.

It’s sad to say that a Swiss person could visit many parts of the US and return home to say that they didn’t see a single thin person or meet a singe person that spoke Swiss-German (or spoke English as well as the average person on Switzerland).

The Swiss do age well and I can’t think of a country that has a higher percentage of great looking women in their 40’s and 50’s…

116   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 10:18am  

newsfreak says: Brand- Ever been to the Never Summer range in Colorado? How about the Wind Rivers in Wyoming or the back side of the Rubys in Nevada. Or Pine Creek in Penna or Mt Marcy in the Adirondaks. How about Bryce canyon in the winter? Although I have the deepest respect for people who live and work in places like NYC or SF I for the life of me I will never understand them.

Of course. I live in Fort Collins, Colrado. My favorite weekend activity is taking a long drive up to Rocky Mountain National Park. I am from the East Coast, and have been canoeing in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey, camping in the Poconos and backpacking in the Adirondaks many times.

I tend to agree with you, I am not a city guy. That's why I moved out west. But you're making Switzerland sound like some densely packed hellhole. Their cities have a lot of people. The Swiss Alps are miles of craggy peaks and untamed wilderness with broad rivers running next to them. They easily give Colorado's Front Range a run for its money in terms of stark beauty. Little port towns dot the rivers, and tiny villages are nestled amongst the mountains. Switzerland is a beautiful place. I wish I had spent more time there.

Punchbowl says: Brand: As long as they wear those leather pants. Spätzle also an asset.

Hell yeah, spätzle is pretty wicked. Although once you get saturated on egg noodles, beer and maultachen (sp), the cuisine in Bavaria and Switzerland gets old fast. Northern Italy... I could dine there for a long, long time and not get tired of it. Plus I think Italian women might be the most beautiful in all of Europe, if not the most entertaining.

FAB says: It has been over 10 years since my last trip to Switzerland and just thinking about it now I can’t remember seeing a single fat person or meeting a single person that did not speak any English.

Well, first of all, Europeans smoke like crazy. Secondly, they walk damn near everywhere in town. I ate and drank like a fiend the last time I was over there, but the two mile walk to work every day caused me to lose some weight (plus hikes around Munich, Tubingen, etc.). And finally... they have this thing called "moderation" over there. Americans are often lampooned as voracious, greedy people who have an endless appetite for food, drink, sex, luxury and an easy life. We can't seem to restrain ourselves from vain attempts to live larger than life, as evidenced by reality shows and MTV garbage like Pimp My Ride.

I want to get back to Europe someday. Their attitude about what's important in life is just different than ours. For many in "eastern" Western Europe, a few candles, a bottle of wine and some good food shared with friends seems to be their primary objective in life.

FAB says: The Swiss do age well and I can’t think of a country that has a higher percentage of great looking women in their 40’s and 50’s…

I love Swiss women for their looks. They are like a fine wine that only gets better with age. Italian women might give them a run for their money, not necessarily on physically aging very well, but just for being really cool in their 50's and 60's. The nice ones are exciting and fun to be around no matter their age.

What I like most about Swiss women is that the aren't interested in trying to claw pathetically at a younger image. They age gracefully, and there's something to be said for that.

117   MtViewRenter   2007 Jan 31, 10:30am  

Swissmiss,

Re: taxes. I ran some tax simulations and you should only pay 1/3 of your paycheck to taxes (including FICA) when you get to around the $250k range. Do you get a decent sized tax refund every April or do you have large other income sources?

So, perhaps you're raking it in, or your employer is withholding too much.

I found this on Swiss income taxes: Link

At first glance, it looks like you will pay up to 30% in income tax (progressive scale), and another 10% social security. That doesn't sound like it's too far from what you see here.

118   e   2007 Jan 31, 10:31am  

I just always get the feeling that “renters” over here in the USA are some kind of “second class” people
and you don’t get this feeling over there - less pressure to bcome a home-owner

American Dream(TM)

119   e   2007 Jan 31, 10:54am  

Any economists here?

Could someone take a pass through this PowerPoint presentation?

http://www.prudentbear.com/Ppt/stillbear05.ppt

Are things really as doomed as they seem to be? Are we headed for a super bear period??

120   Brent   2007 Jan 31, 11:10am  

Anyone notice that most new Sunnyvale listings on Redfin today are all 0 bath and have either ALL CAPS or excessive *'s?

121   Brent   2007 Jan 31, 11:22am  

Damn hit the submit button too soon...check out:

611 ARCADIA TER #00104
810 PEACH AVE
125 S MARY AVE
612 S FAIROAKS AVE
3446 BONITA AVE
1257 SOCORRO AVE

The CAPS arent as suspect as the prodigious use of *'s in a couple listings. And unless the MLS changes how # of baths is listed...humm...

122   SFWoman   2007 Jan 31, 11:23am  

"can’t blame americans since it’s a different system. Most families here have to work 3 jobs to pay their bills… I’m sure the “house-flippers” do well though!

I have the feeling that some real estate investors made enough money the past 5 years to retire… "

Hmmm, and I thought trolls were Swedish.

I love Switzerland, for about 4 days at a time. I've spent more time in the French part than the German or Italian part.

Peter P.,

There is a good fondue restaurant between Pacific Heights and Russian Hill called The Matterhorn. They have a very good wine list.

123   SFWoman   2007 Jan 31, 11:28am  

Peter P.,

We have friends with a house that actually looks like a giant music box outside of Geneva and the house has a raclette/fondue room downstairs! Apparently it is considered stinky, so this house had a seperate room to make raclettes and fondues. It had a big refectory table and a chimney without a fireplace that had a brick base with the fondue and raclette maker on it.

They never made me fondue, neither of the couple liked it.

124   Malcolm   2007 Jan 31, 12:09pm  

Fun with Dick and Jane. When that movie came out I predicted it was a sign of things to come. Keep a close eye on your neighbor, chances are they are struggling, and hard times sometimes bring out the worst in people. Nothing is more dangerous than a baby boomer who can't have something they want NOW!

125   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 31, 12:20pm  

Brand Says:

> Well, first of all, Europeans smoke like crazy.

Smoking has always been something you have to deal with when traveling in Europe. I did hear some good news on NPR this morning:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6151337

> I love Swiss women for their looks. They are like a
> fine wine that only gets better with age. Italian women
> might give them a run for their money, not necessarily
> on physically aging very well, but just for being really
> cool in their 50’s and 60’s.

The 17 year old Italian girls (who look like 23 year old American models) are many times hotter than the 17 year old Swiss girls (who look like 14 year old American Catholic School girls), but at 30 most Italian girls have peaked while most Swiss woman will get better looking (in that classy looking older woman kind of way) for over 20 more years…

> What I like most about Swiss women is that the aren’t
> interested in trying to claw pathetically at a younger
> image. They age gracefully, and there’s something
> to be said for that.

To me there is nothing hotter than the (rare) smart confident American woman in her 30’s that has not botoxed away her few wrinkles and destroyed her beautiful natural hair color by trying to color away a few gray hairs…

126   SFWoman   2007 Jan 31, 12:32pm  

FAB,

The Italian women up north (Lake Como) age beautifully.

Even when women in Europe have plastic surgery it seems to be less dramatic. They seem to want to look good at their age instead of trying to look 20 years younger (and merely looking eerily preserved).

But then again perhaps I like that European look because I'm not 20 anymore? I have a couple of friends who are like I am, and we are just going to take great care of our skin and figures and mental sharpness as we age. I have other friends my age who started five years ago on the Botox, collagen, Restylane, etc. claiming that you need to start before you seem to need it, for 'prevention.' Do what keeps you happy.

127   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 12:34pm  

The low latitude glaciers are all melting. Colorado and Switzerland are both running out of snow covered ranges.

Canadian Rockies and Alaska are probably better anyways.

128   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 12:45pm  

Do that many women really take up plastic surgery as they age? I've known a couple of conspicuous fake boobs and a few faces with obvious signs of rhinoplasty, and tannorexia up the galore.

Of course, I don't run with the Alex Kuczynskis of the world... A fact I'm quite grateful for.

129   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 12:49pm  

"it’s called GLOBAL WARMING…. "

Wow, did that particular gem of knowledge come with the Swiss passport?

Go hog attention elsewhere.

130   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 1:02pm  

astrid says: The low latitude glaciers are all melting. Colorado and Switzerland are both running out of snow covered ranges. Canadian Rockies and Alaska are probably better anyways.

Out West them's fightin' words, little miss East Coaster. And let me tell you, it has been plenty damn cold this winter in Colorado. I more believe the reports that the sun has more control over this planet than CO2 (not that we shouldn't worry about CO2, btw, and our pollutant belching cars).

My mountains are beautiful. If you can find something in Maryland or D.C. (or wherever you are exactly) that comes close to the Rockies, let me know. I've been on the East Coast and done that... for all the winning points, landscape ain't one of them. :)

SQT says: But Swissmiss only reinforces my opinion of the abrasiveness of their personalities.

That's because you're a Californian (or a Midwesterner originally, am I right?). Abrasiveness is relative. In Penna. Dutch county I learned to call it like it is. There's no shame in blunt honesty. We're talking about the Amish and Mennonites, the most peaceful people in the United States, but they're still straightforward. Perhaps some cultures like to round off the sharp edges, but why waste time? That's why NY trounces San Francisco. If you don't want to waste another minute on somebody, it's your God given right to SAY SO. What's it to ya?

Your abrasive is my honest. Not so much the crowd of "the dish is not shiny, you call this wine?". That's just being snotty. No village anywhere would stand for that b.s. I think swissmiss called it like it is. Like it or not, at least she's not sinking in the quagmire of political correctness.

131   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 1:08pm  

LOL. If swissmiss is in fact ConfusedRenter (or one of his associate fools), then I will stand summarily corrected. But she sounds awfully damn close to a lot of southern Germans and Swiss I know.

132   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 1:11pm  

There is a good fondue restaurant between Pacific Heights and Russian Hill called The Matterhorn. They have a very good wine list.

Thanks, SFW, we will find an opportunity to try it out.

133   astrid   2007 Jan 31, 1:14pm  

Brand,

LOL! You mean it might be a bad idea for me to extol the superiority of the Four Corners Area relative to Yosemite? And oh, the superiority of Zhangjiajie to the Grand Canyon...

(I'll be hiding upstairs, in DC, away from the angry West Coast lynch mob).

In all seriousness, I do love the West. East of the Rockies just doesn't compare. My boyfriend and I decided to took Skyline drive in Shenandoah National Park down to his parents last Xmas. After driving for about 90 minutes, we're like "this is it?" We've been spoilt by the beauty there.

But dude, Colorado has nothing on Mt. Rainier...

(dodging metaphorical bullets)

134   skibum   2007 Jan 31, 1:29pm  

The best thing in IMO about Switzerland is the skiing - awesome mountains. We skied the Wengen/Murren/Gridelwald areas a couple of years back, and man that was good stuff. Believe it or not, the food is good too. Lots and lots of veal. Especially delicious because it angers the PETA people...

swissmiss is CLEARLY not confused renter. maybe tricia (see many posts earlier in this thread) is.

135   FormerAptBroker   2007 Jan 31, 1:50pm  

SFWoman Says:

> But then again perhaps I like that European look because
> I’m not 20 anymore? I have a couple of friends who are like
> I am, and we are just going to take great care of our skin
> and figures and mental sharpness as we age.

I bet the divorce rate for slim smart women with positive attitudes is in the low single digits. There is a great picture of 66 year old retired Stanford Brain Surgeon Frances Conley in this month’s 7x7 Magazine that reminds me of my Grandma (who always looked her age, but looked great until she died). SF Woman probably has a copy of 7x7 Magazine since they have been delivering it to every home in the North part of the city for over a year, but anyone can do a Google Image Search for “Frances Conley” to see a photo of the lady. The 7x7 article mentions Conley and her husband have a place in Sea Ranch and just this Monday a PBS special on life of (the brilliant) Milton Freidman mentioned that Friedman and his wife (who some say was even more brilliant than he was) spent a lot of time at their place in Sea Ranch. I don’t know if there is any coloration between smart women, long marriages and weekend places in Sonoma County but it looks like SFWoman is on the right track…

136   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 1:52pm  

Wood River Says: Heres a word from CH for you: Tchuess Tchuess

Um... bye bye bye bye? Nice grammar, Herr Wood River. The encapsulated phrase is tschüss. Even though it is equivalent, it is not perfectly interchangable with the English "good bye". I have never had a Schwabian or Swiss resident say tschüss tschüss. Only tschüss.

Perhaps I am wrong? If you're going to flaunt knowledge of a European language, do it the right way.

[/rant]

137   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 1:53pm  

New thread: Solving the bubble problem for good

138   Peter P   2007 Jan 31, 2:06pm  

I know from conversations with many people here that most are professionals, frugal and pretty intelligent.

I am a code monkey who spends too much on food and is far from intelligent. :(

Perhaps it is time for me to get a loan.

139   Brand165   2007 Jan 31, 2:10pm  

SQT says: Swissmiss bothered me because she came in without knowing anything about anyone and waving her nationality and claiming her superiority despite living here. I agree with those who say, if you dislike us so much, why are you here? I’m not saying you have to love us, but there’s no reason to immediately throw around assumptions and insult people. She brought up her nationality and began the off-topic tangents, not the rest of us. And then in an oh-so-superior attitude decides to chide the rest of us for responding.

Hm. Let's replace "nationality" with "being a renter". Oh wait, that would make everyone on patrick.net sound like a snot for being JBR's beating on the FB's, wouldn't it? Are we so damned superior for noticing that there's a bubble in progress? And how are you making money from it? Or is that impolite question of mine (which has been put forth many times) going to lead you to declare me an elitist?

swissmiss was bashing the American debtor nation, as well as ridiculous housing prices in LA. A rational person would detatch themselves from the "slurs" against America, because we have been arguing for months or years that LA and other areas are under the effects of a bubble. You aren't part of the credit bubble, so why are you defending attacks on the U.S. from that vector? Misplaced patriotism? From her perspective living in LA for 10 years, this is the American experience for swissmiss. While a little bit narrow in view, seeing as it is limited to a freakishly bizarre bubble area (Los Angeles), it is no more insular or silly than people like newsfreak saying how overcrowded it is in Switzerland.

140   Different Sean   2007 Jan 31, 3:26pm  

eburbed Says:
Any economists here?

One or two...

141   Different Sean   2007 Jan 31, 3:27pm  

palo alto renter Says:
The US has been in a housing bubble here for about ten years. Prior to that, there were probably about 250 years of significantly less “pressure” to own.

No, it's been millions of years of housing ownership, passed down from tree shrews...

142   HARM   2007 Jan 31, 5:12pm  

Bap33 Says:

Harm, is “loanership” already a registered patric-ism?

Not yet! It's very similar to "loanowner" (one of my favorites), but worthy of mention in the Glossary.

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