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Don't Panic!


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2007 Feb 7, 10:35am   22,106 views  277 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Inspired by Rainman18 (from Ben Jones' blog):

Expect real estate prices to decline in the coming year
Redlandsdailyfacts.com
posted 02/06/2007

Attention everyone:
"When put into perspective of a 10-year pattern, the downturn should have been expected based on the huge run up since 2002."

"...No reason to panic if you purchased your home for the quiet peaceful enjoyment of it" (vs. appreciation)

"Only the speculators and flippers ...are in any trouble at all."

"...and the last ones that purchased in 2005-2006..."

"The rest of us just need to continue to enjoy our homes, unless we were using it as an automatic teller machine."

Crickets: (Chirp chirp, Chirp chirp...)

#housing

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139   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 4:07am  

How about a JBFB then?

Does anyone have that original quote handy about Hondas and tent cities? google doesn't throw it up, altho it appears regularly on blogs, presumably by the same poster. I actually want to use it in something... it appears one or twice on patrick.net, but it's a little difficult searching the archives...

140   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 4:10am  

this?

Everybody who doesn't buy now will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 25% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $5,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities and hondas.

This asset bubble is different from all of the others - it will never slow down or pop. The gains are permanent.

141   lunarpark   2007 Feb 8, 4:12am  

Top of the 2nd inning? I hope Andy Pettitte is pitching.

142   lunarpark   2007 Feb 8, 4:13am  

Also, I will not live in a Honda.

143   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 4:14am  

Thank you. This time I will save it to the desktop as tent cities.txt ;) Simple but beautiful...

144   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 8, 4:15am  

> And his wifey is thinking about sending kid number
> one to some high-pressure school that costs $12K
> per year. Oh double shit.

It seems like the cost of good Bay Area schools is increasing by about $1K a year. Less than 10 years ago good SF grammar schools like Town, Burke, Cathedral and Hamlin were all well under $10K a year and now I’m pretty sure that all are over $20K a year (a friend who grew up in Pacific Heights just told me that they are planning to move to Marin this summer since Cathedral and Hamlin just pushed past the $20K per kid mark). If the ~$1K a year increases continue the parents of two kids will pay over $400K in tuition before the kids start High School…

145   e   2007 Feb 8, 4:16am  

But if a rich googler wants to just GIVE me money for nothing in return, I’ll gladly take it

The WSJ was reporting that the Office Admin at YouTube got at least $1mil from the buyout.

146   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 4:17am  

GC,

Huh. Don't you work at the grand ole motherload itself?

147   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 4:17am  

lunarpark Says:
Top of the 2nd inning? I hope Andy Pettitte is pitching.
innings... bowling...

Also, I will not live in a Honda.
Actually, I like the styling of the new Mazdas over most others. I think I would prefer a Mazda 3 to a BMW 3. Altho a bit cramped to live in...

148   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 4:20am  

DS :

Pitching is right. No cricket here :-( (Ironically, the thread post does mention cricket, but that's a different one.)

149   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 4:20am  

I don't know about Mazda 3, but our Mazda 6 has traction issues in wet weather.

150   e   2007 Feb 8, 4:22am  

I’m not worried about buying a house right now, I’m OK renting and saving some money, but the cost of the BA is still astronomical. Even the cheap food here is more expensive than in SoCal (where I’m originally from).

That's because the food here is special. They're not making any more.

It's one of the things that kills me about the Bay Area - when natives say "Well, aside from Housing, it's not that expensive here." WTF! That's like saying "Aside from the end-stage cancer, I'm pretty healthy."

If you want to save on food, you'll have to go somewhere that's not special...

http://www.burbed.com/2006/11/23/how-to-save-20-on-your-groceries-for-thanksgiving/

151   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 4:26am  

Thank you. This time I will save it to the desktop as tent cities.txt ;) Simple but beautiful…

You're welcome, however there are several different versions of it so we really don't know what the original is.

152   e   2007 Feb 8, 4:27am  

“But he has two kids, so the daycare expenses will eat up most of what she earns.”

I thought google was buying up an old Mountain View school to turn it into free daycare...

153   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 4:32am  

BA food is very expensive. The farmer's market in Pleasanton is about 2X the price of the farmer's market in Claremont, and both are about the same in terms of composition, status and proximity to prime food producing areas.

154   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 4:33am  

FAB,

Yep, the elementary schools are all about $20,000. Middle school is more, then high school is more.

allah,

There isn't enough equity on earth for me to cash out and flee back to (undervalued) Upstate NY. My brother told me they just got 4 feet of snow. When he called me yesterday the windchill was about -15. If I sold my places and took my equity back there I'd be shuttling to the Caribbean every weekend all winter. I'd use up my equity on airfare and hotel trying to escape the place!

155   Bruce   2007 Feb 8, 4:34am  

Allah, that's an interesting article.

I wonder how many would a) succeed in selling into this market, b) find it possible to transfer their work to Charleston, WV or C-Urbana, IL, or c) adapt to the 'culture' of the various towns mentioned.

To my mind, there's a reason these areas are priced as they are. I think I mentioned before that from 2000-2006, RE values fell in Charleston.

156   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 4:35am  

there are several different versions of it

I think the original sacred text has survived fairly unscathed, there's a few references to it, but none as good as the original. ;) the bizarre thing is i googled similar words without the quotes, and no relevant hits came back within umpteen screens...bizarre. somebody needs to talk to those clowns at google, i don't think that co. has a future unless they employ some good people... who was the original poster? they are like the prophet in the desert, and will be revered one day...

157   lunarpark   2007 Feb 8, 4:41am  

"There isn’t enough equity on earth for me to cash out and flee back to (undervalued) Upstate NY. My brother told me they just got 4 feet of snow."

Ahh, snowy NY. I remember the winter I spent with my ex in Amherst. He was a pro athlete. I'll never forget when he called to say he'd been traded to Buffalo. I nearly dropped the phone. I ended up loving it there, but then again it was just for one season.

158   e   2007 Feb 8, 4:44am  

Your friends $200,000 or $400,000 incomes aren’t going to go very far here without a toxic loan or overextending themselves and not being able to go out or travel.

Unless they're first gen immigrants. Then it won't matter because they don't like to go out or travel, or turn on the heat. :(

New Rule: USA Citizenship now requires a spending minimum.

159   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 4:50am  

eburbed,

What have YOU done today to contribute to the negative savings rate!

:)

160   Claire   2007 Feb 8, 4:50am  

StuckinBA

I really hate all the stop play and time outs - isn't there another game they can play?

161   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 4:50am  

eburbed,

I think we should encourage everybody to install better insulation and wear cardigans. Not travelling and not eating out are also good, less competition for me. I plan to be a renting DINK for a very long time, so I would love for everyone to act like first generation immigrant (though technically, I am also one).

162   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 8, 4:57am  

DD Says:

> I graduated college (UCB) about a year ago with a
> degree in Business Admin, but quite honestly the degree
> has done me jack. I make less than 50k a year as a marketing
> coordinator/assistant for a commercial real estate firm

You need to get out there and network since you should be making at least 50% more with a degree from Cal and with a little luck you can hope to make 100% more in a couple years. Check out http://www.sfrex.com/ (a group of young real estate professionals) and Google to find sf spinsters (a group of mostly ex Sorority girls looking to get married who can be annoying at times but since about half of them grew up around here and went to Burke, Hamlin or Convent they know lots of people and can get you in the door at any firm in town).

> (so yes I work in RE, but we do Warehouse/Industrial along
> the 880). Maybe I’m not ambitious enough and maybe soon
> I need to look for a better job, but an income of 100k is far
> beyond my reach and for someone to say that 200k a year is
> the norm makes me feel like a REALLY BIG LOSER.

You are a little below the norm for a Cal grad, don’t feel bad since it is only the top grads from the top grad schools that make $200K to start (almost no one makes $200K out of undergrad)…

> Everyday I ask myself, “Why the hell am I still in the Bay Area?”

If you don’t have a strong connection to the Bay Area it does not make a lot of sense to live here. If I didn’t grow up here and have my entire family here I would be somewhere else (living in a huge home with a six car garage)…

163   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 5:02am  

nice blog you've got there, allah...

164   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 5:04am  

SFWoman:

There isn’t enough equity on earth for me to cash out and flee back to (undervalued) Upstate NY. My brother told me they just got 4 feet of snow. When he called me yesterday the windchill was about -15. If I sold my places and took my equity back there I’d be shuttling to the Caribbean every weekend all winter. I’d use up my equity on airfare and hotel trying to escape the place!

There are other places that aren't cold such as in the south. It may not be for everyone, but many are choosing to do just that. What it really boils down to is what is more important to you, better climate or better standard of living.

Bruce:
I wonder how many would a) succeed in selling into this market, b) find it possible to transfer their work to Charleston, WV or C-Urbana, IL, or c) adapt to the ‘culture’ of the various towns mentioned.

There are other places and believe it or not, there are business that are moving now and in the near future to these "underpriced" areas. People in the overpriced areas are going to be so stressed out and companies in those areas will find that they can find less stressed out workers with fewer financial problems for lower pay than have their own workers complain about raises. They have successfully outsourced many jobs overseas; why wouldn't they be able to do the same in other states?

As far as culture, when you have so many people of your own kind moving to the same place, the culture is moving with you. In Long Island NY for instance, many people have been selling and moving to GA and N.C. Many will argue those places down south are infested with rednecks. That may be true in the areas that Long Islander's aren't moving to, but the huge amount of brand new developments are filled with people such as Long Islander's; in fact there is an area in Wilmington that they call "Little Long Island". If you stray too far from any good area, you will find yourself amoung lowlifes and crime.

Everyone has their own reasons for staying or leaving, but here on Long Island, the taxes are insane! Many have left and are very happy to no longer be part of the rat race that Long Island has become.

165   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 5:06am  

nice blog you’ve got there, allah…

Thanks, actually its not a blog but a web site.

166   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 5:22am  

yes, i wasn't sure the right word to use. does a blog need to have user comments by definition? or just the concept of a diary. i guess your posts aren't dated...

167   lunarpark   2007 Feb 8, 5:23am  

Asking $719,900

http://www.mlslistings.com/common/properties/propertyDetail.asp?open=0&page=3&mls_number=705872&type=property&name=

Zillow shows the following:

01/11/2007: $710,917 ?
06/07/2005: $825,000 ***
08/27/2004: $515,000

They haven't even "owned" it for a month and it's for sale, flip?

168   e   2007 Feb 8, 5:25am  

Everyone has their own reasons for staying or leaving, but here on Long Island, the taxes are insane! Many have left and are very happy to no longer be part of the rat race that Long Island has become.

Since I'm originally from Long Island - I'd like to point out that Long Island was always a rat race. How could it not have been?

But then again, I rarely ventured past the Nassau County line.

The high property tax rate in LI does have a positive feature: fantastic schools. Like Herricks. (Not like Roosevelt.)

If you have 2+ kids, living in LI is a great deal compared to living in the Bay Area. You buy a $800k starter home in Mountain View and your kids have to learn about the Nortenos and the Surrenos? WTF.

169   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 5:26am  

this just in, hee hee:

Who put Google's Australian headquarters on the wrong street?

The head of the firm that supplies data for online mapping services has denied that his company is responsible for the glitch on the new Google Maps Australia site that recommends a wildly circuitous route for people who cross Sussex Street in Sydney.

The journey from the Shelbourne Hotel at 200 Sussex Street to Google's Sydney headquarters across the road at 201 Sussex Street is normally a 30-step, 30-second trip.

Google's new mapping service, however, recommends a route involving a 10.4-kilometre scenic detour that requires the Harbour Bridge to be crossed twice.

The anomaly is caused by the fact that Google Maps incorrectly locates 201 Sussex Street on the Western Distributor, one street south of where it should be.

Position, position, position

then I tried to use google blogger to shorten the link, and got a 'malformed address' error!!!

170   Different Sean   2007 Feb 8, 5:44am  

The only Shakespeare line I remember is “the fewer the men, the greater share of the glory.” But then again, I always like war, spoils of war, and slaughtering people.

hmm, Henry V was a bit of an a-hole... England's last attempt at a reverse Norman invasion...

171   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 5:49am  

Since I’m originally from Long Island - I’d like to point out that Long Island was always a rat race. How could it not have been?

But then again, I rarely ventured past the Nassau County line.

I have grown up here on Long Island, I can tell you that the taxes here are no where near what they were. Also it is so much more congested than it ever was; it's starting to look like queens!


The high property tax rate in LI does have a positive feature: fantastic schools. Like Herricks. (Not like Roosevelt.)

The property tax does not justify the overpaid teachers and the few good schools that there are here. Everyone seems to think the schools over here are all great but that is just a folly. Whenever I ask them where they got that from, they either tell me it's a known fact, they heard it from someone or they read it somewhere. Take a look at Newsweeks survey of the best high schools in America. Herricks is #245; many of the other schools don't even show up on the chart of 1000+ schools surveyed. Amazingly enough, the number one school in America is in Irondale, AL. There are also several schools in the double digits that are in FL, N.C.,GA.


If you have 2+ kids, living in LI is a great deal compared to living in the Bay Area. You buy a $800k starter home in Mountain View and your kids have to learn about the Nortenos and the Surrenos? WTF.

I don't know the Bay Area, since I never lived there but I do know the house prices are so much higher, the salaries over there are also higher. They are both very expensive places to live which makes moving away a not so bad idea.

172   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 5:49am  

Claire :

Trust me. It's faster than Cricket ! The "speed" version of that game takes one whole day. The "normal" game runs for 5 days. No kidding. Real stuff. I am madly in love with that game.

SP :

Some of my friends play in those "leagues". I am not going to spend my Sat morning watching THAT ! But the "world cup"* is starting. Life will be good soon.

*NOTE TO READERS : A "world championship" is a tournament between teams from different countries.

173   DinOR   2007 Feb 8, 5:54am  

StuckinBA,

That's why we have "token" Canadian teams!

174   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 8, 5:54am  

GC Says:

> it’s good to be the member of a gentleman’s
> club, I mean MSR).

What is a MSR?

> The SF spinsters shouldn’t really put the photos
> of their mother-daughter party online. You can
> really tell their ages by just looking at their moms.

Most of the Spinsters are in their 20's. They used to kick you out at 30 and even though they raised the max age to 35 a while back most girls who grew up around here will still quit the Spinsters and join the Junior League before they turn 30...

175   Allah   2007 Feb 8, 5:57am  

By the way, if anyone is interested in the best schools data in exel format so you can easily search it, I have it on my site just click here and save it to your desktop.

176   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 5:57am  

That’s why we have “token” Canadian teams!

Canada is a different country ?

177   jtfrankl   2007 Feb 8, 6:01am  

# lunarpark Says:
"They haven’t even “owned” it for a month and it’s for sale, flip?"

Looks like a title transfer. Maybe someone died. After I split with my ex, Zillow showed a "sale" of half the loan amount.

178   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 6:03am  

That dud NEW is down 36% today ! On a volume 20 times the average.

One more link from Reuters. It's as downright negative as MSM can get.
http://tinyurl.com/38ldtu

What's up with CFC CEO ? The only quotes I remember from him are very -ve on the housing market. Am I missing something ?

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