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Don't Panic!


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2007 Feb 7, 10:35am   22,864 views  277 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Inspired by Rainman18 (from Ben Jones' blog):

Expect real estate prices to decline in the coming year
Redlandsdailyfacts.com
posted 02/06/2007

Attention everyone:
"When put into perspective of a 10-year pattern, the downturn should have been expected based on the huge run up since 2002."

"...No reason to panic if you purchased your home for the quiet peaceful enjoyment of it" (vs. appreciation)

"Only the speculators and flippers ...are in any trouble at all."

"...and the last ones that purchased in 2005-2006..."

"The rest of us just need to continue to enjoy our homes, unless we were using it as an automatic teller machine."

Crickets: (Chirp chirp, Chirp chirp...)

#housing

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192   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:06am  

Believe me, the quality of students was more of a problem than the quality of the building (though the latter was pretty awful).

In any case, most of my best high school teachers had a real edge to them. Nicer and stressed out teachers are not necessarily better. Education is a relative thing.

Mainly, I just want to correct the perception that the Newsweek list is actually worth anything, it's not.

But to your main point, I doubt I'd ever send my kids (if I have any) to a non-magnet California public school. So I think we're in agreement there.

193   hugel   2007 Feb 8, 7:08am  

Off topic. Have you heard about this the 2008–2010 Zero-Percent Adjusted Net Capital Gain Rate?

http://www.nysscpa.org/cpajournal/2006/1206/essentials/p40.htm

So much for keeping the bubble inflated. I used to think that it is more of a conspiracy that the real estate bubble is there to continue the stock bubble in '90s. But it seems to have more truth to it now. I guess it will eventually be no capital gain tax on any investment.

194   Claire   2007 Feb 8, 7:10am  

eburbed - don't you mean 109 for 3?

195   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:11am  

- stressed out
+ NOT stressed out

196   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:13am  

SP,

Sorry, I guess that's why I'm called an iconoclast. But honestly, did you think my opinion was clearly wrong in some way, or am I just not supposed to say bad things of the recently dead. (If the latter, does that social nicety apply to Saddam Hussein and the likes?)

197   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:14am  

If capital gain tax is reduced to 0% and then sunset quickly, isn't there a HUGE incentive for certain people to cash out their stocks during that period?

198   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 7:21am  

astrid :

ANS is not in the same league of Hitler and Saddam. Secondly, loss of a parent is bad for a child - at any age, especially when the child is at that age. Do you know if she was abusing her daughter ? Then no, you do not get any right to pass judgment on her parenting skills.

Most parents love their children. And it's not good for any child to miss it.

199   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 8, 7:21am  

Peter P & Anthony,

0% cap gains is only for the people in the lowest 2 (or 3?) tax brackets. I doubt most people who have stocks to sell earn less than 25k a year.

200   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:22am  

0% cap gains is only for the people in the lowest 2 (or 3?) tax brackets. I doubt most people who have stocks to sell earn less than 25k a year.

What about newly retired boomers?

201   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:23am  

May ANS rest in peace.

202   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:24am  

Well, I was basing my opinion based on what happened to her son. But perhaps it's always bad.

(I personally don't think so in this case, as long as responsible guardians are appointed for her daughter. ANS died before the kid was one. Plus, ANS is a trouble magnet. Without such a mother, the daughter might have hopes of leading a relatively normal life)

203   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:26am  

Well, you're all entitled to your opinions. Keep in mind that I didn't say anything bad about ANS other than my own opinion that the daughter is better off without her. I think I have substantial reasons, based on facts known to me, to think this is so.

204   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:27am  

Astrid, we know you, don't worry. ;)

Though you are welcomed to make fun of my eventual demise, which is going to happen sometime within the next 100 years.

205   Claire   2007 Feb 8, 7:28am  

With this 0% capital gains - could not someone theorectically take a long unpaid sabatical in one year to get their salary in the bottom bracket?

Am I missing something?

206   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 8, 7:29am  

What about newly retired boomers?

It's always possible. But won't SSI for most boomers be around 25k a year?

The death tax is also eliminated for the year 2010. It'd be interesting to see if there are any correlation between it and death rates among the wealthy.

207   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:31am  

It’s always possible. But won’t SSI for most boomers be around 25k a year?

After deducting state tax and mortgage interests?

208   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:32am  

Peter P,

If you died, I would miss you a great deal. I have nothing but good to say about you. However, if you insisted on a mausoleum with a 500 sq. ft. bathroom...then I'd make fun of you, a little.

209   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:35am  

However, if you insisted on a mausoleum with a 500 sq. ft. bathroom…then I’d make fun of you, a little.

How about 400 sq. ft. But with marble?

210   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:39am  

Only while you're still alive.

211   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 8, 7:43am  

After deducting state tax and mortgage interests?

Hmm, good point. Also, with a married couple, the income limits for those brackets double. Hold on to your stocks & your house! (unless Congress changes its mind)

NIA, NTA

212   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 7:47am  

What is the $$ amount that the 'death tax' kicks in at now? It doesn't really tax your death, unless you have a decent estate, I find that such an odd name for it.

213   lunarpark   2007 Feb 8, 7:49am  

I just received this email from ZipRealty:

Opportunity to buy in an awesome location in Sunnyvale. Only 3 left, offering a 10K financing incentive package for 2 of them. Also get a $ 6500 plus rebate from me.delivery 4-5 months. price 670K to 730K.
PLEASE CALL/EMAIL ME ASAP TO SEE THE FINAL UNITS.
----
Why do I need an incentive if these are the last units? Won't someone just snap them up? Also, what location is awesome in Sunnyvale? I cannot think of any.

214   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 7:51am  

SP : ditto to everything. I was shocked too.

Astrid : This is a free country. You can say whatever you want. But the parent-child relationship is very special. To casually say that it's more good for the child to lose the parent, just because you are free to come to your conclusions, is horrible. Unless you know and can show how her being alive was harming the child, don't hide behind the right of free speech.

215   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:52am  

Also, what location is awesome in Sunnyvale? I cannot think of any.

Better than an "awesome" location in East Palo Alto.

The only possible place in EPA I like is the Four Seasons hotel.

216   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 7:53am  

Also, what location is awesome in Sunnyvale?

Entire BA is awesome. Peter P said that every place is special.

217   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:53am  

Perhaps "awesome" as in Shock and Awe.

218   lunarpark   2007 Feb 8, 7:56am  

The Four Seasons in EPA is quite nice.

219   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 7:57am  

The Four Seasons in EPA is quite nice.

I recommend the warm seafood salad there. Service at the restaurant is superb at times.

220   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 7:58am  

StuckinBA,

First of all, this is hardly a freedom of speech issue at all, but one of social nicety. If most people here had declared me so repugnant as to boot me out, that's your perogative. Freedom of speech is not applicable to small privately runned websites.

In any case, I have no problem that you think, on this one point, that I hold a repugnant view. I'm not big on this particular brand of social nicety. And I think very very poorly of people with bad parenting skill.

221   e   2007 Feb 8, 8:00am  

Also, what location is awesome in Sunnyvale?

Why, the part next to Cupertino - of course!

222   lunarpark   2007 Feb 8, 8:00am  

"Do these guys think they’re selling to idiots?"

Yes.

223   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 8, 8:01am  

And I think very very poorly of people with bad parenting skill.

To the extent that you think the kids are better off with the parent dead ? Because they don't match your definition of good parenting skill ?

224   MtViewRenter   2007 Feb 8, 8:03am  

SFWoman,

Death tax is just the nickname. It's called the federal estate tax. Exemption limit is $2mm this year.

Link

225   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 8:07am  

SQT,

If her son was a decent kid and she made an effort to raise him properly, then I was wrong and I retract that statement. My impression was that she was a very unfit mother.

StuckinBA,

Because it is my opinion only! It would be different if I was a family court judge or child service person making a judgment that affects these people's lives. I see no reason to tone down my opinion simply because they may offend the sensibility of some, unless I deem that offense to be great enough to cause some sort of actual harm.

226   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 8:12am  

Increasingly, I’ve started to appreciate socialism, as in the European sense.

Socialism works only for countries with small population and large reserve of natural resources.

I think you are admiring the relative wealth of those countries.

227   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 8:15am  

BTW, I've repeated stated my own opinion about child raising. People can do whatever the heck they want to their own lives, but if they have a child, I think they owe that child at least 18 years of reasonable stability and loving care. That obligation, once undertaken, supersedes their own personal preferences.

I do think that a major reason why this society is screwed up is that many people don't think before undertaking this responsibility and are derelict in their duty as parents.

228   SFWoman   2007 Feb 8, 8:17am  

MtView,

Ah, I thought the amount to qualify for the estate tax was much higher, because such a small percentage of people end up qualifying to pay it.

I feel sorry for ANS's daughter. Who knows, maybe she died of flu, but I'd guess it was likely drugs or heart failure. Why didn't the people close to her do an intervention or something? Everytime I've seen the woman appear on anything she seemed to be a stupor.

229   Peter P   2007 Feb 8, 8:18am  

I do think that a major reason why this society is screwed up is that many people don’t think before undertaking this responsibility and are derelict in their duty as parents.

I agree. But I am not ready to accuse any specific person of not being a good parent.

I am probably a bad parent myself. :(

230   EBGuy   2007 Feb 8, 8:18am  

What is the $$ amount that the ‘death tax’ kicks in at now? It doesn’t really tax your death, unless you have a decent estate, I find that such an odd name for it.

SFWoman,
Will your kids be surly teenagers in 2010? If so, I would look both ways before crossing the street -- I know FABs parents will :-)
Exemption limits revert to $1 million in 2011.

SQT said:
I think ANS biggest flaw was that she wasn’t terribly bright. Being beautiful and not-to-smart is a sure fire way to be taken advantage of.
Uhhhh.... she was a golddigger, and quite a good one I would say -- or am I missing something?

231   astrid   2007 Feb 8, 8:22am  

"Not that you need or want me on your side. Nor that there are sides. "

:-) It's more of an oval. ( I hope I didn't just offend the rhombus people)

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