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Don't Panic!


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2007 Feb 7, 10:35am   22,715 views  277 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Inspired by Rainman18 (from Ben Jones' blog):

Expect real estate prices to decline in the coming year
Redlandsdailyfacts.com
posted 02/06/2007

Attention everyone:
"When put into perspective of a 10-year pattern, the downturn should have been expected based on the huge run up since 2002."

"...No reason to panic if you purchased your home for the quiet peaceful enjoyment of it" (vs. appreciation)

"Only the speculators and flippers ...are in any trouble at all."

"...and the last ones that purchased in 2005-2006..."

"The rest of us just need to continue to enjoy our homes, unless we were using it as an automatic teller machine."

Crickets: (Chirp chirp, Chirp chirp...)

#housing

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40   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:29pm  

I don’t remember it too well now, but I remember I loved Blake 7 when I was a kid and was so upset when that was canceled.

I did not even know about Firefly until they talked about it on this blog last year. Then the show suddenly arrived from Netflix...

41   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:31pm  

Unfortunately for Firefly, it was not shown primetime, so it did not pick up a huge fan base quick enough to stop the show from being canned.

42   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:35pm  

Unfortunately for Firefly, it was not shown primetime, so it did not pick up a huge fan base quick enough to stop the show from being canned.

Too bad. :(

Well, at least it got a movie. What other canceled shows get a movie? :)

43   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:36pm  

Again, if you can’t afford it without a “voodoo” loan, don’t buy it, and try to make more money.

This is why I am a JBR. And I will grow old with gray hair. Homeowners will be immortal because they will never age.

See, immortal homeowners + new babies + they are not making any more land = prices will never go down.

Not advice of any kind

44   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 2:36pm  

The spring bounce that will test your resolve ! How true. I was fully expecting the following report. (Be prepared to hear more from the RE bulls on this one.)

http://www.sanjoseproperty.com/newsletter.html

From my anecdotal evidence, the gist of the report is indeed true. People are catching the falling knife. The arguments I have heard are same as FaceReality gives. In one line - no crash has happened, so it won't happen.

(The people I talked to were tired of waiting for the crash, stock market is good, there is still no shortage of funny money and some wanted to take advantage of buyer's market and buy before the prices go again in spring. Their words, not mine.)

I honestly have no problem with it. I won't mind if people get into bidding wars again and the frenzy pushes even the last bear into buying. I have never told anyone to not buy, and I will not. It's their money, not mine.

45   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:39pm  

Peter P - not many get a movie, I think the hope was that if the movie was a blockbuster, then the networks would pick the series up again. There are quite a few websites dedicated to Firefly and the "browncoats".

46   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 2:41pm  

Otherwise, plan to grow some gray hair while waiting for the BA meltdown.

I don't think that I will have to worry about that problem ;-) At the rate I am loosing hair, there won't be anything left to gray ...

47   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:43pm  

There are quite a few websites dedicated to Firefly and the “browncoats”.

I know.

How are they going to pick up the series again after the events in the movie?

48   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 2:43pm  

Again, if you can’t afford it without a “voodoo” loan, don’t buy it,

Cannot disagree with that. But what will happen to those who bought before they got a chance to read your advice ? Are there any such people in BA ?

49   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:43pm  

The FB's will have grey hair before I do

50   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:44pm  

At the rate I am loosing hair, there won’t be anything left to gray …

Perhaps we should have a thread about keeping your hair as a bubblehead.

51   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:45pm  

Cannot disagree with that. But what will happen to those who bought before they got a chance to read your advice ? Are there any such people in BA ?

Can they un-buy their houses?

52   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:46pm  

We need a spring bounce for the thread bubble too.

53   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 2:48pm  

Arghhh.
s/loosing/losing

54   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:49pm  

Oh - I could think of a million story lines for Firefly - but it is unlikely that it will be revived.

55   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:50pm  

Oh - I could think of a million story lines for Firefly - but it is unlikely that it will be revived.

Have you checked out some of the fanfics out there?

56   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:50pm  

Goodnight all.

57   Claire   2007 Feb 7, 2:51pm  

Peter P - no - are they good? Really must sign off now.

58   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 2:53pm  

The best quote I heard in a while ... from a friend's friend who bought it Cupertino after a bidding war just a few days ago.

It doesn't make any financial sense to buy a home ... but I can't wait forever !

Now how could I argue with THAT ? :-)

(That's when I wrote the comment about how the combination of funny money and dual income couples will support Cupertino ... for a while, and invited mighty wrath on this board.)

59   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:56pm  

Peter P - no - are they good? Really must sign off now.

Good night.

Some of them are better than others. Just check out the usual fan sites. They have links to the fanfics.

60   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 2:57pm  

(That’s when I wrote the comment about how the combination of funny money and dual income couples will support Cupertino … for a while, and invited mighty wrath on this board.)

Wrath is better than boredom. :(

61   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 3:09pm  

There are clearly some owners in a bad financial situation - just not enough of them to impact the area significantly.

I guess I am in the wrong company then ! EVERYONE I know has bought using either an ARM (3/1 and some rare 5/1) and used a second mortgage, because they couldn't afford it with 30 year FRM and 20% down payment. But that's not a surprise, as I am also one the very few sub 200K income person.

62   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 3:10pm  

There are clearly some owners in a bad financial situation - just not enough of them to impact the area significantly.

s/bad/good
s/impact/support

I wonder... :roll:

63   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 3:13pm  

I was wondering how FaceReality figured out HARM doesn't know much about BA.

And that the sidewalks are paved with gold.

Ah ! That gave it away HARM. The sidewalks are NOT paved with gold. Yet. We are still working on it. Once the first round of Web 2.0 IPO are over, we will get it done pronto !

64   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Feb 7, 3:14pm  

It is not just the wealth of the local population here that is preventing a meltdown.

It is the wealth in China and India. Poor countries, yes, but with half the world's population, even the smallest population of their elites is a massive number in proportion to the size of the Bay Area. And they all want to live here, or at least have a residence here, or buy their kids an education for an H1 so their kids can live here.

Some of their wealth is capital that people worked so hard for, and traded at WalMart for some of those cheap goods, those recycled dollars finding their way into Bay Area real estate.

When the Bay Area starts to get as crowded and unpleasant as places like Bombay and Taipei, that's when they won't covet buying more property here. But if you have seen those places you will know that we still have a long haul ahead of us till this area has become spoilt like those places.

65   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 3:17pm  

You know, they are at least tens if not hundreds are places on earth that are as special or more special as the Bay Area. I have never heard of a place that is not considered special by its residents.

66   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 3:18pm  

To me, Bay Area is special because I am here. The moment I leave, another place will become special.

67   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 3:25pm  

When will we have thousand-comment-threads again? :(

68   lunarpark   2007 Feb 7, 3:26pm  

On the bright side, rents are still low (relatively speaking). So there is that.

69   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 3:28pm  

On the bright side, rents are still low (relatively speaking). So there is that.

Rent is really quite low, considering that everybody makes 600K+.

70   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 3:30pm  

Thanks to our friends at
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id298.html

We have the following information.

House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring. Since 2003, prices after June 1 showed a median change of:

2003: 0.0%
2004: +1.8%
2005: -0.7%
2006: -7.8% (= -$60K!!)

But BA is immune to any melt-down. This is just a buying opportunity.

71   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 3:43pm  

My point is, what changed in that 5 months, did the valley add tens of thousands of jobs and all the elite from India and China suddenly discovered the fantastic bay area.

No. But the New Paradigm was suddenly discovered. :)

72   lex   2007 Feb 7, 3:48pm  

Face Reality Says:

There are clearly some owners in a bad financial situation - just not enough of them to impact the area significantly.

Based on what facts do you claim that, smart ass?
The fact that you've just interviewed two sales guys who are making $400K-$600K a year doesn't seem to be that relevant.
Do you know that 65% of mortgages in BA taken in last 2 years have been ARMs?

73   StuckInBA   2007 Feb 7, 3:51pm  

CB :

Why would these people want to work at your startup then?

Dude, you are not doubting FaceReality here, are you ? Now now, he says "not everyone" makes it this much. So don't feel too bad.

Sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but to see how common folks(NOT the HaHa and FaceReality types) do check out, Fortune's list of 100 best companies to work for.
http://tinyurl.com/yd44o6

Average TECHNICAL salary (and REMEMBER this includes OTHER CASH COMPENSATION on top of pay ... which I assume means bonus etc and maybe even other benefits, but they don't clarify that)

6. Network Appliance (NTAP) $129,000
11. Cisco Systems (CSCO) $123,021
44. Yahoo (YHOO) $126,000

These are among the best companies to work for. But apart from this pathetic gang and likes, everyone else makes over 200K.

74   lex   2007 Feb 7, 3:51pm  


I also interviewed half a dozen more people who are currently making over $200K a year in senior engineering, marketing, and product management positions.

HA HA is a loser.

75   Peter P   2007 Feb 7, 4:06pm  

I also watch HOUSE every week. That Hugh Laurie is AMAZING!

Yes, absolutely.

I am not into MD stuff at all. But I am amazed.

76   Bruce   2007 Feb 7, 5:19pm  

SFWoman (from previous thread),

Oh yes, the dining problem. But there are a few places which stand out from the rest. So here goes...

Alla Colomba. You've already found this one.

Da Fiore. On the Campo San Polo. Superb fish, risotto, mascarpone. San Polo.

Cipriani. Breakfast in the hotel garden. The fare's good, the setting is a pleasure. Giudecca.

Harry's Dolci. Same lunches as Harry's, but much nicer situation. Far too crowded on Sundays - reserve a table? Giudecca.

There's a cafe Cucciolo on the Zattere with very good coffee. Dorsoduro.

You might enjoy Vino Vino (wine bar) in the Calle della Veste. Musicians from La Fenice have adopted the place. San Marco.

Not food, but you might enjoy V. Trois on Campo San Maurizio - only place permitted to sell Fortuny cotton damasks. The prices make your head spin, but then so do the fabrics. San Marco.

Almost forgot Il Fornaio. Nice bakery and very nice pate. Also San Marco.

Hope this helps...

77   Michael Holliday   2007 Feb 7, 10:17pm  

cruzpo Says:

Santa Cruz is melting. July 2006(peak), average 882,000, Jan 2007 average $795,000. $87,000 vaporized, ouch!
_____

Michael Holliday casts a whimsical gaze out the window, westward, toward California from Arizona, raises a curious eyebrow, smirks wryly, grabs a handful of Cheetos, munches on them for a few seconds, reaches for a tall glass of Hi-C fruit punch and drinks it heartily, brushes the crumbs off his shirt, wipes the Hi-C fruit punch residue mustache off his face with his shirt, belches, yawns deeply, briefly scratches the itch on his buttocks and exclaims, "burn, baby burn!"

He then falls into a deep, peaceful sleep luxuriating in the fact that, mercifully for us all, reality is finally exerting itself in the housing market (as painful as it is, and will be for many).

The End...

78   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 10:25pm  

When every place is special, no place is.

79   astrid   2007 Feb 7, 10:30pm  

Hmm, if we're doing free formed promotions for our favorite shows, I must put in a good word for Friday Night Lights. Perfect, just absolutely perfect. I still can't comprehend football but I'm hooked. NBC also put all the episodes online.

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