patrick.net

I was wondering how FaceReality figured out HARM doesn't know much about BA.

And that the sidewalks are paved with gold.

Ah ! That gave it away HARM. The sidewalks are NOT paved with gold. Yet. We are still working on it. Once the first round of Web 2.0 IPO are over, we will get it done pronto !

It is not just the wealth of the local population here that is preventing a meltdown.

It is the wealth in China and India. Poor countries, yes, but with half the world's population, even the smallest population of their elites is a massive number in proportion to the size of the Bay Area. And they all want to live here, or at least have a residence here, or buy their kids an education for an H1 so their kids can live here.

Some of their wealth is capital that people worked so hard for, and traded at WalMart for some of those cheap goods, those recycled dollars finding their way into Bay Area real estate.

When the Bay Area starts to get as crowded and unpleasant as places like Bombay and Taipei, that's when they won't covet buying more property here. But if you have seen those places you will know that we still have a long haul ahead of us till this area has become spoilt like those places.

You know, they are at least tens if not hundreds are places on earth that are as special or more special as the Bay Area. I have never heard of a place that is not considered special by its residents.

To me, Bay Area is special because I am here. The moment I leave, another place will become special.

When will we have thousand-comment-threads again? :(

On the bright side, rents are still low (relatively speaking). So there is that.

On the bright side, rents are still low (relatively speaking). So there is that.

Rent is really quite low, considering that everybody makes 600K+.

Thanks to our friends at
http://www.viewfromsiliconvalley.com/id298.html

We have the following information.

House prices in Silicon Valley make most of their annual increases in the spring. Since 2003, prices after June 1 showed a median change of:

2003: 0.0%
2004: +1.8%
2005: -0.7%
2006: -7.8% (= -$60K!!)

But BA is immune to any melt-down. This is just a buying opportunity.

My point is, what changed in that 5 months, did the valley add tens of thousands of jobs and all the elite from India and China suddenly discovered the fantastic bay area.

No. But the New Paradigm was suddenly discovered. :)

Face Reality Says:

There are clearly some owners in a bad financial situation - just not enough of them to impact the area significantly.

Based on what facts do you claim that, smart ass?
The fact that you've just interviewed two sales guys who are making $400K-$600K a year doesn't seem to be that relevant.
Do you know that 65% of mortgages in BA taken in last 2 years have been ARMs?

CB :

Why would these people want to work at your startup then?

Dude, you are not doubting FaceReality here, are you ? Now now, he says "not everyone" makes it this much. So don't feel too bad.

Sorry to burst anyone's bubble, but to see how common folks(NOT the HaHa and FaceReality types) do check out, Fortune's list of 100 best companies to work for.
http://tinyurl.com/yd44o6

Average TECHNICAL salary (and REMEMBER this includes OTHER CASH COMPENSATION on top of pay ... which I assume means bonus etc and maybe even other benefits, but they don't clarify that)

6. Network Appliance (NTAP) $129,000
11. Cisco Systems (CSCO) $123,021
44. Yahoo (YHOO) $126,000

These are among the best companies to work for. But apart from this pathetic gang and likes, everyone else makes over 200K.

I also interviewed half a dozen more people who are currently making over $200K a year in senior engineering, marketing, and product management positions.

HA HA is a loser.

I also watch HOUSE every week. That Hugh Laurie is AMAZING!

Yes, absolutely.

I am not into MD stuff at all. But I am amazed.

SFWoman (from previous thread),

Oh yes, the dining problem. But there are a few places which stand out from the rest. So here goes...

Alla Colomba. You've already found this one.

Da Fiore. On the Campo San Polo. Superb fish, risotto, mascarpone. San Polo.

Cipriani. Breakfast in the hotel garden. The fare's good, the setting is a pleasure. Giudecca.

Harry's Dolci. Same lunches as Harry's, but much nicer situation. Far too crowded on Sundays - reserve a table? Giudecca.

There's a cafe Cucciolo on the Zattere with very good coffee. Dorsoduro.

You might enjoy Vino Vino (wine bar) in the Calle della Veste. Musicians from La Fenice have adopted the place. San Marco.

Not food, but you might enjoy V. Trois on Campo San Maurizio - only place permitted to sell Fortuny cotton damasks. The prices make your head spin, but then so do the fabrics. San Marco.

Almost forgot Il Fornaio. Nice bakery and very nice pate. Also San Marco.

Hope this helps...

cruzpo Says:

Santa Cruz is melting. July 2006(peak), average 882,000, Jan 2007 average $795,000. $87,000 vaporized, ouch!
_____

Michael Holliday casts a whimsical gaze out the window, westward, toward California from Arizona, raises a curious eyebrow, smirks wryly, grabs a handful of Cheetos, munches on them for a few seconds, reaches for a tall glass of Hi-C fruit punch and drinks it heartily, brushes the crumbs off his shirt, wipes the Hi-C fruit punch residue mustache off his face with his shirt, belches, yawns deeply, briefly scratches the itch on his buttocks and exclaims, "burn, baby burn!"

He then falls into a deep, peaceful sleep luxuriating in the fact that, mercifully for us all, reality is finally exerting itself in the housing market (as painful as it is, and will be for many).

The End...

When every place is special, no place is.

Hmm, if we're doing free formed promotions for our favorite shows, I must put in a good word for Friday Night Lights. Perfect, just absolutely perfect. I still can't comprehend football but I'm hooked. NBC also put all the episodes online.

(chirp chirp, chirp chirp)

Anyone know any good cricket dishes? :)

(I hear they're delicious!)

StuckinBA,

Now just b/c CFC and TOL happen to be down hard (so far) I don't want your new found faith in the PPT shaken! (It's still plenty early!)

First class action suit; Just as I was saying, the FB's who were still able hold on to their houses will be bailed out by the taxpayers. This is just the first and definetly not the last.

Use your stupidity to your advantage. Sign up for a 1.95% loan and believe that it will stay at that rate for 5 years and when it doesn't, sue the lender who will not have the funds to pay you so all of the generous taxpayers; including those of us who aren't stupid enough to sign up for such a loan will foot the bill.

Hmm, if we’re doing free formed promotions for our favorite shows, I must put in a good word for Friday Night Lights. Perfect, just absolutely perfect. I still can’t comprehend football but I’m hooked. NBC also put all the episodes online.

I do not understand football at all.

My wife just love watching Heroes and 30 Rock.

30 Rock is quite funny. We like Alec Baldwin a lot.

When every place is special, no place is.

Getting metaphysical...

carlorossi, it is all in the stars.

Million dollar question: will TV make me fat?

allah,

Good to see ya' btw and thanks for the chuckle of the day!

Ahem, I guess the minute junior's tippy toe hits the ink for the birth certificate "college costs are looming"? O.K so they had FOUR kids (whatever). Without knowing the kids ages it might seem hard to pass judgement on this folks but uh..... I CAN and I WILL!

This financial "band aid" (however thoughtfully applied) would have been doomed even without the loan re-set! This is just another version of equity ATM "raiding" only in this instance on a monthly basis. Had their home continued to appreciate wildly, this wouldn't be an issue. Perhaps this couple used the same fore thought when contemplating contraception?

This sets a horrible legal precedent. :(

Moved to Italy....... hmm....

Finally! A troll with taste! :)

A troll with taste!

I do want to troll the Tuscany region.

Tuscany bean soup. Yum.

carlorossi,

The money migrated from one bubble to the next. Retrospectively it makes sense.

There seemed to be a slight downturn in real estate in the city in 2001. Rents collapsed, lots of liquidity appeared in the money supply, the bubble mentality prevailed and jumped from tech stocks to real estate.

Just assume that people are greedy, want to use their houses appreciation to subsidize their lifestyle, and aren't very rational thinkers when it comes to money decisions. The real estate bubble then makes total sense.

"Million dollar question: will TV make me fat? "

Only if you're on it.

I find it hard to believe that BA house would beat a house in Italy, provided that they're of equal value in 2001. The Euro has almost doubled against the US. Even if that farm house stayed at the same price in Euro, it would have doubled in USD.

Peter P,

My favorite is what my old buddy calls "baccalada"(sp?)

Extra virgin olive oil

2 whole garlic

crushed rep pepper

2 cans anchovy fillets

sprinkle with toasted Italian Style (TM) bread crumbs

Man is it good! (Kind of stinks up the house for a while) but who CARES!

Great for pasta or even just dipping bread in.

Yes TV makes you fat. That'll be one "meellion" thank you.

"The real estate bubble then makes total sense"

Stay current with NAAVLP payment.

Fund lifestyle via MEW.

Take out trash, become meellionaire!

What's not to like? :)

astrid,

It's not nearly doubled yet, thankfully.

Did you see this?

"NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Thursday it expects quarterly orders and home-building revenue to fall significantly and sees a greater-than-expected charge to write down land values, sending its shares lower by nearly 4 percent.

For about a year, home building has fallen off sharply as the U.S. housing demand dropped due to high prices and interest rates. Investors, home builders and other industry watchers have been looking for signs of a trough.

Editors Choice: Best pictures"It does not look better," Majestic Research analyst John Tomlinson said."

"demand dropped due to high prices and interest rates"

So...... 6 and 3/8ths was all it took to kill this thing?

OK, I just spoke to my brother in upstate NY, they got about four feet of snow the past couple of days. There are reasons the real estate is cheap there.

SFWoman,

Yeah, I'm an idiot for confusing the exchange rate of Pound for the Euro.

Still, more than 30% appreciation against the dollar, I don't see what Mr. Tuscan Farmhouse has to worry about.

astrid,

Because the closest Mr. Under the Tuscan Sun has been to Italy is when he was drinking his Carlo and Rossi Sangria (TM)?

It's all the rage w/FB's! That and Top Ramen (TM)

So people were using ARMs in the BA 3 years ago, my husbands co-worker who always says how much his townhouse has gone up in value has just had to re-fi because his payments went up *a lot* - didn't get all the gory details, but I'm pretty sure that they re-fi'd to another ARM - 3 years ago the rates were really good for a 30 yr fixed - what was he thinking? Luckily he had equity in his house so he could re-fi.

We should be thanking all of these buyers who are catching the falling knives. They are allowing the market to create new comps. Comps which are LOWER than they were last year. This will keep the momementum swinging back towards the longterm trend line.

Also, anyone ever notice how the housing bulls always imply that a renters life sucks? Why is that? I sold my house a month ago and am LOVING renting. I rent a house which is 40% larger, I am in a better city/neighborhood, and am saving $200 a month versus what I paid as an "owner" not counting maintenance etc. I have seen the articles and countless examples of why buying is better than renting long term. I agree with these articles. However, in the short term, housing seems to be overpriced and I refuse to pay the premium necessary to purchase at this time.

DinOR, thanks for the recipe!