patrick.net

"Poker, they can learn how to lose money."

Or they could buy SF real estate right now and learn the same lesson.

As a reminder for those of you keeping track at home, the SF Bay Area S&P Case-Shiller Home Index peaked at 218.37 in May, 2006 and has continued declining in subsequent months. It currently stands at 212.13 (Dec. 2006). The SF Index is composed of SF, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda, and Contra Costa counties. While I consider this index to be the gold standard, it does, like all other metrics, have its limitations. New homes are not considered (until it is sold by the first homeowner) and it does not take into account home improvements. A seven year downward/sideways slide similar to the last bubble would put us into 2013 to reach parity with the current peak (in nominal terms). This is hard to fathom (as I'm sure it was from 1990-97). SF proper may hold up better than, say, Antioch. Not advice to rent, buy, sell or flip real estate.

Years ago, we took the SATs twice at most, and 1200 was considered good.

That was before score/grade inflation.

newsfreak,

True, but until very recently my kids may have been able to 'buy' a house here for pennies down. And with the lending standards the way they were, being seven probably wouldn't be an issue.

newsfreak,

I too am anti-Hillary. I think she'd morph into whatever it takes to get elected. She seems to be some sort of a pro-choice war hawk to me.

I rather have Gore, even though I do not believe in the Global Warming hoax.

When I look for interns, I pay little attention to their GPA’s. All I care about is whether the person has raw smarts, genuine interest in the subject area and trustworthiness. In reverse order of importance.

I rely mostly on intuition.

My passenger might not be, because I saw some blood on his forehead, and, hear this, he didn’t get 800 on the Analysticals.

You stole his karma! :)

Not karmic advice

newsfreak Says:

> Years ago, we took the SATs twice at most, and 1200

Then Peter P Says:

> That was before score/grade inflation.

Thirty years ago a 3.5 GPA and 1200 SAT would get you in to Cal or Stanford...

Have you ever been in an actual jungle?

Well, Adrian Monk says that it is a jungle out there. So SF is a jungle, I guess. :)

The sad reality is that the character flaws that make them a loser under normal circumstances will still apply in case anarchy actually breaks loose.

I think the "sad" reality is that in any society most people will have to be losers.

I always enjoyed what were called 'objective' tests. They were generally better-written than course-related exams and were often interesting in and of themselves. I suspect liking them skewed scoring to the positive side.

I wish I could believe oceanic acidification and the current thaws in permafrost were temporary oddities, Peter. MSM have delivered their usual buffet of distortions on the subject. It's just not that hard to look up MIT Technology Review - is there a CalTech equivalent? - and get a look at the research absent most of the sensational journalese.

SP,

I was stopped by one airline, and at the other two pulled aside, pat/partial strip searched, they went through my Palm and looked at the names, went through my calendar, turned on my camera and looked at the photos on it, and looked through my contacts list on my phone, then asked me extremely detailed questions about who I would be seeing, where would I stay, have I been to this place or that place before? They asked me these questions while seperated from my kids and were asking the kids the questions seperately.

I had a friend who was formerly in the State Dept. who told me I was on a list, and I was accidentally told that I came up "S1" by a clerk at USAIR. (I asked about S1 and he said 'forget that') I have spoken with the airline people and they all said 'We can not discuss this' when I ask about it. They won't say I am or am not on a list, but last year United refused to sell me a ticket. I then started a correspondence and call marathon with them (still getting 'We can't discuss this with you" after 2 1/2 hours on the phone with them), but I was told later that they would sell me the ticket. We'll see if I can get on the plane next month!

I met another preppy woman who had the exact problems I have with the airlines. Perhaps our names are a little too white bread?

Strangely, I have no problem coming back in at customs. They always smile, ask how my vacation was and wave me through.

Look at the four most recent headlines on Bllomberg:

* U.S. Stocks Finish Worst Week in Four Years as Global Investors Avoid Risk

* New Century Faces Criminal Accounting Probe; Fremont Quits Subprime Market

* Subprime Mortgage Market Needs Closer Scrutiny as Defaults Rise, Fed Says

* Consumer Confidence in U.S. Falls From Two-Year High on Rising Fuel Prices

PAR,

Thank you. Do you know how quickly prices stalled/dropped in the '89 housing bust here? Was there the long lag like now?

SP,

I should clarify that former State Dept friend was guessing I was on a list, he didn't have a list in front of him, it just sounded like it to him.

PAR,

Thanks. It could be much uglier this time, with the run up and the subprime issue. No Loma Prieta, but many 4.0s might make people a bit jittery without actually taking housing off the market...

PAR,

Then I guess it's a Great Time To Buy (TM).

Why Peter P will never be an astronaut (don't worry, involves no donkeys)

http://www.networkworld.com/community/?q=node/11999

Why Peter P will never be an astronaut (don’t worry, involves no donkeys)

No sushi in space?

SFWoman Says:

> PAR, Thank you. Do you know how quickly prices stalled/
> dropped in the ‘89 housing bust here? Was there the
> long lag like now?

Things were still booming in CA in 1989 slowed in 1990 and as I have said in the past I did not see anything start to drop until after “Operation Desert Shield” became “Operation Desert Storm” in early 1991. It was a slow drop in 1992 with not many foreclosures until 1993…

P.S. There was a "Loma Prieta" impact in 1989 on a small number of areas (like 94123 landfill and Foster City/Redwood Shores)...

FAB,

The reports I have seen show the peak in Q4 1989.

I saw the earthquake damage insurance maps of SF before I bought my place. (No ABAG online to research at the time) Surprisingly there was damage in several neighborhoods. There were a lot of chimneys that fell off of houses in the Haight and Mission. I had a friend who's Noe Valley house suffered a lot of damage (and she had closed on it three weeks earlier! Ouch!)

To me the ISS is a not a good use of resources. What's the point?

I was looking at the S&P Case/Shiller Index numbers for SF Bay Area again and realized I made a mistake in reporting the trough.
Peak: 75.15 June 1990
Low: 65.79 Feb 1994 (not 65.92 March 1996 as I previously reported. This is a correct datapoint, though not the low. Hey, whats .13 index points among friends -- only two years oscillating in the trough)
This actually jibes a bit more nicely with PARs National City data.

To answer SFWoman's question, over half the drop happened fairly quickly in under a year. By April 1991 the index was at 69.46. It then oscillates seasonally down to hit the low about 3 years later.
Again, if you bought at peak last time, nominal prices weren’t above water until October 1997 (Index at 75.22).

SP,

"Location, location, location. :-)"

They're not making more vacuum of space, yah know. (Oh wait!)

What is this super rabbit of which you speak?

Academia is full of idiots and fools, just like other walks of life. It's good practice for life.

GC,

Well, you're just hiring interns, so the risk of a bad hire is not too extreme.

GC,

How are you going to find a wife if you stick around here so much? :) You need to hit the bars and go look for that millionaire Youtube HR assistant who is semi doable in dim lighting.

I'm selling my karma, if anyone needs a little extra. Buy now and get a handful of my conscious tossed in for free (normally a $19.99 value).

I'm selling my soul. ($20 for 20%!) Shareholders can collect if my soul makes a profit.

SFWoman Says:

> FAB, The reports I have seen show
> the peak in Q4 1989.

I was commenting from memory but the link below supports my comment that “things were booming in CA in 1989” (notice the start and end points of the CA markets in 1989 on the graph). Since not many people seem to actually remember how bad the early 90’s were for real estate investors I can’t even imagine how bad things will get in the next few years as the market corrects.

http://tinyurl.com/2m2wgu

Someone a while back asked how to learn about finance.

There is no better way than to read the words Buffett.

The 2006 letter just came out and as usual it is worth reading.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

P.S. For SF Woman and anyone with young kids the Buffett letters are all easy to read and are a great way to get started teaching kids about money and investing…

Oh, I already sold collateralized debt obligations and swaps on my soul, long long ago. Like any good derivative, my sold has been sold many times over.

*soul even

SFWoman,

If you're planning to use a water heater as your emergency drinking supply, I suggest you get a filter. The water may be safe, but very unpleasant to drink.

I once had an element replaced in a water heater, and what came out of the tank when the serviceman pulled out the old element was not pretty. The serviceman explained that the very bottom of the tank (I.e. below the hot water outlet) acted as a sludge trap.

IMHO an earthquake big enough to require an emergency water supply will also be big enough to shake up the heater tank so at least some of this grunge will go into suspension throughout the tank's contents.

(I always fill my kettle from the cold tap now.)

77% of GMAC's $57 Billion mortgage portfolio is subprime, according to a CNBC report I saw this morning our time. Plus they're sitting on $1.4 Billion in equity tranches.

IIRC their remaining 40% of GMAC is the only thing keeping GM alive.

No wonder they're having trouble signing off their accounts. I wonder if this means Chapter 11?

Only a couple of weeks back some of you said that you don't participate at Ben's as much as you used to, because the site had deteriorated . . .

Peter,

Some Swiss soldiers wandered across the Liechtenstein border while trainning this week. Nobody noticed until they realised themselves that they were about a mile over. Then they hustled back to Switzerland and admitted their error. Neither country appears fussed.

In passing, when I was travelling with mum from Zurich to Basle last year there were several young Swiss guys in Army uniforms complete with assault rifles in our carriage on the train. Whenever they went down the corridor to the restaurant car or bathroom or whatever, they carried their guns with them. I presume National Servicemen going either to or from their training location. Again, total unconcern by all the other passengers and railway staff.

SP, if only it were so. I am one of the people who is supposed to get the computers going again after an earthquake. If MUNI is down, it might take me a while to get to work though. I guess I can try to ride the bicycle.

SFWoman, this is a good reason to contribute to the ACLU. I am kind of astonished that you are on the no-fly list, though I guess I should not be astonished anymore at anything the Bush Administration does. I would like to believe that it has to do with your earlier biological microbal gene virulence work, but it is unlikely that the TSA really has their stuff together that well to actually target potential threats. More likely, your name is close to someone who was a felon or something like that.

DHS has created a way to challenge your entry on the no-fly list:

https://www.dhs.gov/xtrvlsec/programs/gc_1169676919316.shtm

Good luck with this and let us know how it goes for you.

SQT et al,

I think I'm going to slip into X-mode for a post like Randy did earlier.

*rant on*

From Ben's, quoting a Fortune interview with DL about his latest book.

Q: What about the problems in the subprime market?

That's when I knew we were in trouble.

So if he 'knew we were in trouble' 'about 2 years ago', then why didn't he freakin' SAY so? He is the NAR's Chief Economist, so he's supposed to be the official technical spokesman for the NAR, not the head cheerleader.

It's one thing to avoid a topic, or spin the facts in your constituency's favour, but another thing entirely to just straight out LIE in your supposed area of expertise.

No, instead we have 2 more years of this $hithead denying that we even had a bubble, anywhere in the US, and certainly denying that there was even the possibility of a national bubble.

What this A$$HOLE doesn't seem to realise, or at any event acknowledge, is that this is NOT a victimless crime. Hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of (perhaps naive, perhaps dumb, I grant you) HONEST people are going to have both their financial futures and their dreams wrecked by the coming bust.

And worse, it is exactly the most responsible FB's who are going to get the most hosed, because they are the ones who might have put in some sort of real downpayment and/or will really screw themselves trying to keep their dream alive.

*rant off*

I feel better now. ;)

The Shmend You Know And Love Says:

"...Ive both known and worked closely with graduates from Wharton, Harvard, and Princeton. None of them were of particularly high intelligence or even had any refined skills...if you have this background, what the f-ck are doing massaging people?"
_____

Good question. Damn good question, soldier!

I pondered it over a cup of coffee and believe I came up with a suitable answer: they are imparting--through the osmosis Ivy-league touch-- poetry, art history and differential equations into their "johns" with each undulating Swedish massage.

Like a Vulcan Mind Meld, the negative particles of energy they manipulate into positive rays of light--on the nano-level of quantum physics--evolve our species to greater levels of cosmic enlightenment, peace and harmony.

And if you believe that, I've got...er...um, a Mc Mansion I'd like to sell you with an exotic ARM loan thrown in for good measure.

How about "McTearDownfor2012"