patrick.net

PAR,

I think lots of us on the board have advanced degrees, lots of Cal, Ivy and Stanford people. Smart people with no degrees who won't fill in bubbles as well. Overall, it's a smart group.

The markets not happy, I guess that's why we haven't our regular trolls coming on telling us how the BA can never fall because of the market.

Schmend,

Well, I've bested you there. I am on the no fly lists, but strangely for only three airlines. I have been working for a couple of years to clear this up, and may finally have done so with United, I'll find out in April.

I don't think it had anything to do with my SAT or GRE scores, however. I don't even think it had to do with the fact that I researched infectious disease virulence genes (and therefore could be used to produce WMDs). I also have a very, very WASPy name and look ultra WASPY. I think I ended up on it because people are stupid and unimaginative, and we can't gather intelligence properly in this country anymore (hence relying on the biased/politicised intelligence of foreign countries half the time).

I doubt that getting 95 percentile on a standardised test would get you on the FBI radar, because everybody I went to school with had scored at least that high, and a lot of my friends in the city did as well (that's how they ended up at the schools and jobs) and they all aren't on the lists.

Looks like there is a wealth of historic data (20 years back) for the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices at:
http://www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com./portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/2,3,4,0,0,0,0,0,0,3,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
Here are some hightlights from the SF Index (bear in mind this includes Alameda and Contra Costa Counties).
Data from the last bubble:
Peak: 75.15 June 1990
Low: 65.92 March 1996
If you bought at peak last time, nominal prices weren't above water until October 1997 (Index at 75.22). Yikes, seven years (!) of sliding down/sideways in nominal terms.

"and i don’t give a shit about your stupid friends, luckily I didn’t have to deal with any of those assholes until i hit college."

What is your problem? Why are you so angry? I am pointing out that most people I knew received high standardised test scores and are not on FBI watch or no-fly lists. CAT tests? I'm assuming the C is for California, we didn't have those in NY.

Do you have to deal with those people now?

Schmend,

Is the last reply to me? Faking what?

Oh, and everybody guessed that schmend was a NJ resident.

I am confused.

Should we have a "Huh 2.0" thread?

Peter P,

Can you recommend a restaurant in Napa that serves pasta? We're going to Napa this weekend for the marathon. My husband needs some carbs.

Can you recommend a restaurant in Napa that serves pasta? We’re going to Napa this weekend for the marathon. My husband needs some carbs.

I have not been to Napa many times. SFW probably knows a good restaurant there.

Last time, Bouchon (very close to French Laundry) was pretty good.

I don’t like the type of person you are

What type of person do you like? Do they actually exist or are they mythical.

Peter P,

I usually eat in Sonoma County or in Calistoga. There is a really nice restaurant in Calistoga (funny name, I'll have to look it up), but it isn't pasta. I'll ask a friend who does a lot of bike riding in Napa where he carbo loads.

I never thought of SFW as arrogant. What makes you think that way?

You were bragging about being known by the FBI, because you received a score in the top 5% on standardized tests.

# Shmend Rick Says:
March 2nd, 2007 at 1:04 pm

I hope they know about you. They should know as many people as possible.

put it this way… someone who scores in the top %95th percentile in every standardized test ever given to him goes in the ‘likely troublemaker’ bin.

Peter P.,

Sometimes I get a bit snotty, but I feel that what is good for the goose is good for the gander. He made a joke about explosives, then bragged about being known by the FBI because of his standardized test scores.

I simply rebutted but claimed it probably wasn't test scores.

Then I was called a moron because I retorted to someone (perhaps him, he's changing his screen name) that CAT tests weren't given in NY.

Why do these rude posters not understand projection?

Sometimes I get a bit snotty

Really?

I left a message with Napa friend, maybe we'll hear back. Is it Napa proper or Napa County?

Peter P/SFWoman - Thanks.

I think we are staying near downtown Napa.

Well I am sure SFW deserves to be snotty. (And I am not saying she is.)

lunarpark,

OK, I have Tra Vigne, but it's in Saint Helena. Let me google around and see if there's one I've heard someone recommend in Napa.

lunarpark,

I pulled this up, but no one has told me to go to any of them in Napa. You could look them up on tripadvisor or a site like that and see if they are getting good reviews. Stick around the city of Napa if you want to be near where your race is.

http://www.napayellowpages.com/napa-dining/restaurants_italian.htm

We interrupt the "Huh 2.0?" thread for more news from the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Indices.
The ten city Composite Index peaked in Oct. 89 (82.44) and bottomed out in Feb. 1994 (75.63), a much shorter (and earlier) duration than SF. The LA region had it worst (defence industry) as they were at 100 in 1990 and the index did not hit 100 again until Jan. 2000.

EBGuy,

The Schiller index definitely anticipates a decline in our local housing. What do you think is dragging out the plateau period before the real decline starts? Perhaps the index doesn't take into account the psychological drag on an asset like housing? Does the index include in its calculations the possibility of inflating us out of the bubble with a long period of flat prices but during an inflationary period?

This whole bubble is starting to confuse me. I can't but be amazed at the length of time it has managed to stay inflated.

SF Woman - Thanks, you are too kind.

This whole bubble is starting to confuse me. I can’t but be amazed at the length of time it has managed to stay inflated.

So long as people do intend to buy when the predicted price correction occurs, the prediction will not come true. When the bubble bursts, you cannot get many people to even comtemplate buying.

So the bubble will stay inflated when there is still traffic on this blog.

lunarpark,

I need to eat out more up there, so I can give first hand advice. In Sonoma County Willi's Wine Bar (Santa Rosa) and Willi's Sea Food (Healdsburg)- yum! I have heard Cyrus (also Healdsburg) is great, but I haven't gone yet. I am going to try to remember the name of the Calistoga restaurant we've been to a couple of times, it was really good too.

Peter P.,

If we stop blogging the bubble will collapse? Well, that's easy.

I found the name of the Calistoga place I like, it is Wappo Bar Bistro.

lunarpark Says:

> Can you recommend a restaurant in Napa that
> serves pasta? We’re going to Napa this weekend
> for the marathon. My husband needs some carbs.

Owned by Donna and Giovanni Scala, Often called the best "local" restaurant in the Napa Valley:

http://www.bistrodongiovanni.com/

WOW EBGuy - those are impressive numbers! Going by that I suppose we can guess this down cycle has between 7-10 years to run? If we assume summer of 2005 as the peak we really are just in the beginning stages of the downturn. I wonder if the fact that information travels much faster now that the internet is prevelant will affect the speed at which this unravels...

If we stop blogging the bubble will collapse? Well, that’s easy.

Not that easy... :)

The thread bubble will collapse though.

FAB - Thanks, I like that menu.

I'll check out the other suggestions too. Much appreciated.

CB,

Standardized scores don't mean too too much. I do very well on standardized tests, but I am not necessarily good at the subjects. The answers on the tests seem obvious to me, so my talent is in the test, not the subject.

I did very well on my GRE math (790, great score). I am not mathematical at all. I did one year of calculus, that was absolutely as far as my brain could stretch mathematically. I had trouble keeping up with some simple econometrics in an econ class that I took, but I should have whizzed through it if you just looked at my test score.

I am also not computer literate, but you would probably expect that too from my math score.

I am also not computer literate

Did you use an abacus to blog here?

watchful,

I guess I am amazed that other people are still buying! We know it will go down, Schiller knows it will go down, I'm just amazed that there are so many other people who have faith in the market.

OK, I am really avoiding getting my names database updated. Talking to most of you is much, much more interesting.

Peter P.,

I can use my computer to do a word processor, do email, look at internet sites, but that's about it.

It is like my car. I can drive, but under the hood, who knows what goes on?

CB, perhaps they said you were too good for them. Admitting you would make their existing students feel bad.

I can use my computer to do a word processor, do email, look at internet sites, but that’s about it.

I don't think I can do much more than that.

CB,

Your scores were great, but the problem with those tests is they could end up taking a person like me over someone who actually understands math because of the tests. Oh well, they served me well and I never have to take one again. I hope my kids are good at them when the time comes.

I had a really smart friend who used to color in designs on the bubbles in her Iowa tests. The teachers would go nuts because her cretin-like scores would be averaged into their class.

Peter P.,

Back to macroeconomics:

You don't suppose the Swiss invading Lichtenstein had anything to do with markets jitters, do you?

(That was very, very funny. Maybe we need to go take care of Switzerland for those Lichtenstinians?)