patrick.net

Looks like the housing-crash snowball has really started to roll down hill and gather momentum.

Let's see how fast it can gather more snow by accretion, and precipitate
an avalanche, a veritable blizzard of foreclosures as it begins its violent return to market equilibrium, in its quest for the fabled golden mean.

Bubble bloggers: raise your downtrodden heads proudly, for your redemption from the insanity of unaffordability draweth nigh.

SP,

The last two weeks makes me wish I chose a short term money market position on my 401K contributions.

All i haveto say is thank god last week’s stock market pummelling is over! That was ugly. - OpinionsPlease

Monday's lead news story on CNN:

"Stocks start with a skid"

Ha Ha,

I don't like recessions. They don't just take down specuvestors. When people have less disposable income restaurants go out of business (unfortunately not McDonalds, but the locally owned places), charities and the arts receive less in donations, independent shops go away, and many people are in a glum mood. I don't want to see actual hardworking people put out of work because of greed and poor judgement in this get-rich-quick real estate based cult-like worship of the mortgage (aka The American Dream (TM)) .

They're already starting to eat Top Ramen :lol:

allah,

How depressing. I would have just gotten yet another job to make money had I been reduced to a Top Ramen diet in college.

From the WSJ Today (page C1):

“Observers of the housing market believe it is following the same path as the stock market, whose bubble burst seven years ago, and the pattern set forth in the 1978 book by Charles Kindleberger, "Manias, Panics and Crashes." Kindleberger says bubbles start with "displacement" that makes a sector look favorable, with historically low interest rates serving this purpose in the housing market. This is followed by a boom characterized by easy access to cash, which leads to what Kindleberger calls "pure speculation;" and is followed by "revulsion," in which cash is shut off and panic ensues. The housing market appears to be in the "revulsion" phase”

Ramen is actually quite yummy and easy to make (especially good as a base for stir fry).

allah Says:

> They’re (the Long Island Families) already starting
> to eat Top Ramen (Top Ramen - 12 for $0.96)

Then SFWoman Says:

> How depressing. I would have just gotten yet another
> job to make money had I been reduced to a Top
> Ramen diet in college.

I ate a lot of Tom Ramen in College in the early 80’s and remember that it cost over $0.20 a pack for the “Top Ramen” brand and the cheap off brand ramen (that I bought even though it didn’t taste as good) was never under $0.15 a pack (even if you got the case discount). Every time I go to Wal Mart it seems like every item they sell is cheaper (an actual non inflation adjusted dollars) than they were when I was in college 25 years ago. It is good to hear that poor college students can now eat ramen for even less than we all did in the 80’s…

I think I'm going to buy some stock in Top Ramen; My crystal ball is seeing big demand for it in the near future!

I ate a lot of ramen with soy sauce when I was in high school (back when I was required to eat breakfast). In college, I switched to broad rice noodles - they taste great with almost anything, esp. any coconut milk based sauce.

Man, I go away for the weekend to do a little bowling in Reno (hooray for nationals), and I come back and find the world markets diving in the toilet.

I should have gambled more! Apparently it's safer than the stock market right now.

My little birdie says NEW won't make it. They're going down. :(

As I repeatedly said, I am looking forward to a RECESSION in 2007

That should take care of the traffic jam and the restaurant wait. Of course, restaurants have to stay in business, but well-run establishments will always remain.

They care much more about school district, and unless they’ve done their research, they by their very nature of being recent immigrants have not seen a RE market in decline in the Bay Area (many were not in the US, much less the BA, in the early 90’s.) As a result, there’s been less of a pullback on buying here, IMO.

This is why we are going to avoid good school districts.

Immigrants from Hong Kong and Thailand will probably remember their little RE disaster.

I do not enjoy the suffering of others, but we all learn from it, right?

In college, I switched to broad rice noodles - they taste great with almost anything, esp. any coconut milk based sauce.

I prefer thin rice noodle. Broad ones are difficult to eat with chopsticks.

Peter P,

I'd love to think that I really "learned" something here but I fear it's been mostly just a guilty pleasure? It seems we've reached a point where I'm actually having some difficulty just keeping up w/all the negative developments.

My crystal ball says we have a LOT of "built-in" selling pressure in RE b/c so many that bought since 2005 were more for appreciation potential than personal utility (and financed for the short term). Many people that are staring down the barrel of rate re-set (and of course all the loan costs) will likely throw their hat in the ring too. Especially when they figure out they really don't need it (the house) and really couldn't afford it to begin with.

Inventories will likely continue to rise, bottoms will be called and short sales may eclipse regular sales.

Ok, Real estate (since I am apparently the only non-over of ramen here)

My friend, the Ethical Hong Kong Chinese Realtor fom a few threads ago, told me she has a few clients looking for multi-unit buildings in good areas. She found a couple to bid on, and both times was massively overbid by the same group of people. She said that they paid so much for both buildings that not only did the buildings not pencil out as investments, they don't even pencil out as spec buildings.
She mentioned it to a friend and the person was shocked that she didn't know about the group. The word on the street about them is that they are just buying up investment properties to launder Russian mob money.

A bit of bubble contribution that had not occurred to me.

OOOps, it's not just sub-primes...

"Lehman Cuts Prime Mortgage Lenders on Default Risks (Update1)

By Will Edwards

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. reduced its investment rating on U.S. mortgage companies including Countrywide Financial Corp. because a surge in loan defaults is showing evidence of spreading beyond the riskiest credits...."

http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/radio/#

Peter P,

I like fresh thin rice noodles, but the dried rice noodles always turn out undercooked or overcooked for me.

I use fork to eat noodles. I find chopsticks to be challenging.

Here's another short recipe from my mom - Cucumber salad with peanut sauce.

ingredients
2 or 3 English cucumbers or 6 pickling cucumber
2 heaping spoonful of peanut butter
1 tsp of salt
1 tsp of sugar
a couple splashes of balsamic vinegar to taste
optional: crushed peanuts
optional: chopped dillweeds

Lightly pound the cucumber with the flat side of a heavy cleaver, crush it until the sides crack in a couple places, then cut the cucumber into 1" sections. Put into a 3-4 qt lidded tupperware. Add salt. Close the lid and shake well.

In a small 1 pt bowl, use a fork to mix the peanut butter with 1 TBSP of scalding water, then add sugar and mix til relatively smooth. Dump into the the tupperware and then shake some more. Add peanut and dillweeds.

Serve with a splash of balsamic vinegar (to taste).

Thanks, astrid. I love cucumber salad. Cucumber is one of the very few veggies that I prefer raw.

BTW, where do you get fresh rice noodle?

I think the mortgage shakedown has begun. Housing correction may begin (for real) very soon.

Not investment or home buying advice.

Or should I say, reflexivity has changed course?

The thick kind you can buy in sheets in Asian supermarkets. I see the thin kind occasionally (check the bakery area) though I've never had any. I consume most of my thin rice noodles in SW China, where "Over the Bridge" rice noodles is ubiquitous.

where “Over the Bridge” rice noodles is ubiquitous

I had that before. That was great! :)

From SQT's blog:

Which Serenity character are you?

Someone on some blog mentioned a month ago when NEW blew up, that it is still time to make money on this pig. The analogy was with all the JDSU's of the dot com crash. They didn't stop going down till they became penny stocks.

Look at this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=fmt+lend+new+nfi

Priceless.

StuckinBA,

Absolutely hysterical chart pairing there my friend! Mind you, this is what they are down TODAY (so far anyway) not YTD etc. How can this be happening? I thought RE only goes up? :(

Mortgage Implode had some really funny comments on the most recent New Century conference call too! What the analysts heard left them in total disbelief.

PAR :

Lots of good people are hurt when bubbles pop.

Unfortunately very true. Anyone who has witnessed the dot com crash, can recount many sad stories.

We bubblesitters didn't do anything that is going to led to this recession. But we will get hurt as well. Hopefully far less hurt than the FBs. I will take solace in good old schadenfreude. And if people like Greenspan and DL get dumped in dung, it will be the bonus.

SP,

It's a matter of taste. I much prefer the taste of ramen (the noodles, not the flavor packets, which can vary wildly from brand to brand) to regular dry noodles and ramen helps me control portions better. The only thing that prevents me from eating ramens regularly is that they're extremely unhealthy - it's kinda scary when palm oil is the healthiest oil I can hope for.

Jon,

That's a false dichtomy. A more analoguous situation would be if the LL told you that you had a rent control apartment and induced you to spend $50K to fix up the place, then kicks you out after 6 months.

-dichotomy
+analogy

ugh, me type baaaaad Engliss

The path to gourmet bliss is paved with starvation.

Hmmm....

Ramen = hand-pulled noodle?

Where good people and mom and pop innocent bystanders are concerned... I think for the most part we already got our medicine!

Absolutely horrible stock market returns (March 2000 to April 2003) paltry returns on our deposits and a slumping currency. You mean there's more?

The pain will be most acute where the leverage was the most abused. Maybe I should be, but I'm really not that worried.

Moral of the story? Median prices don’t always tell you what you think they tell you, especially when you have extremely small data sets.

I said before and I'll say it again, Median prices are bogus! Just a stupid number that shows the midpoint of what people are paying but not what they are ACTUALLY GETTING for that price.

Whether the median goes up or down, it don't tell you anything about what direction the price of houses are going. Look at the delta of sales data from one year to the next and look at the inventories; now notice how many people HAVE TO SELL this time? Throw in the cheap money that is disappearing and you really don't need any more clues as to how this is going to end.

"Peter P Says:
hand-pulled noodle

Hey Beavis, check it out. he said…

SP "

This is the correct answer to your question? Am I hired?

Huh?

Wow... NEW down 65% in one day so far? Jeebus!

Real Estate Trivia

Only two cities in the 20 cities covered by the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index showed gains in December. One of the cities was Seattle which barely eked out some appreciation. Name the other city.

Charlotte?