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Right Said Fed


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2005 Jul 20, 12:52pm   17,042 views  122 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

The Housing Bubble's now official. The jig is up, cat's out of the bag, fat lady has sung. "Mr. Bubbles" himself called it in this morning's testimony before Congress: tinyurl.com/a7g7k. Of course, one could argue that AG & Co. are largely responsible for starting this mess, but that's a topic we've already covered in previous threads.

So, is there anyone left (non troll-wise) who can rationally deny that the Bubble exists? Perhaps the only topics left to debate are the questions about magnitude, impact and strategies for dealing with it. How far will prices fall? Which regions/communities will be hit hardest? What will be the macroeconomic implications of the fallout (see previous Inflation/Deflation thread)?

How should one position oneself financially to benefit from the impending crash (proactive/aggressive investment strategies)? How does one best position oneself to protect existing wealth/assets from RE market-related destruction (defensive/hedging strategies -- see Hedging thread)?

HARM

#housing

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111   HARM   2005 Jul 21, 2:52pm  

I am wary of a lot of things including 401K and IRA

Peter, if you don't put any money into retirement accounts, what do you use as a write-off? My IRA/403b is about all I've got tax-deduction wise (no mortgage, no kids). Plus, with IRAs (and most 401/403s) you get to invest it pretty much any way you want to.

112   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 3:00pm  

Peter, if you don’t put any money into retirement accounts, what do you use as a write-off?

I know... I am just uncomfortable with the idea of not having access to my money for decades. A lot of things can happen in a few decades.

Also, you cannot short or sell uncoved options in IRA/401K accounts. Most importantly, all such accounts are US-based so all investments are ultimately USD denominated . (I know of the internation mutual funds option, but your account is still paid in USD.)

113   praetorian   2005 Jul 21, 3:33pm  

Peter P: "I am just a bit wary of mutual funds."

Even passive index funds like vanguard? I like the strategy: its tough to beat the market without a lot of insider knowledge (which most people lack), so why not attack the area we can control: costs. 18 basis points. Tough to beat.

Peter P: "Also, you cannot short or sell uncoved options in IRA/401K accounts."

Why on *God's* earth would you do that, unless you wanted to make investing a full time job? _smile_

See y'all in the next thread.

Cheers,
prat

114   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 3:37pm  

Why on *God’s* earth would you do that, unless you wanted to make investing a full time job?

That's what my accountant said. :)

It is difficult to get short-side exposure on IRA and 401K though.

115   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 4:00pm  

You can withdraw money from an IRA/401k earlier if you need, there are just consequences. Also, some will let you take loans out against it.

The consequences (include that of loaning against the account) is too severe for me to fathom.

I know that a tax-deferred account provides superior compounded return but somehow my guts go not feel right about it.

116   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 4:17pm  

I thought if you take a loan out against your 401k, then you have to pay it back with interest, and there is no penalty. To me, that sounds pretty good, considering your 401k plan pockets the interest.

But I thought the interest will be taxed. And if you somehow change employer, you will have to pay off the loan in full or pay the penalty. Maybe I am wrong, I don't know.

If you’re in the situation where you need all your money before 59.5, you’re screwed anyways.

Not if I intend to move the money offshore before 59.5 for whatever reason though.

117   Zephyr   2005 Jul 21, 4:35pm  

I believe you are correct about paying back the loan at termination of employment. Otherwise I believe it is considered a distribution and subject to the penalty and income tax.

The interest that you pay to your 401k is not tax deductible. However, when you withdraw that money it will be taxed. So by borrowing from yourself you convert after-tax income to future taxable income.

How would you be able to move the money offshore?

118   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 4:40pm  

But I gotta say, if you tell people you believe in renting AND you are skeptical of 401k/IRA’s, then most people will definitely think you’re views are backwards!

Perhaps they are. ;)

It is difficult for me to come up with a logical argument, and I do not expect you to agree with me on this. Trust me, I am lucky to have a tax accountant that agrees with me on this.

119   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 4:43pm  

How would you be able to move the money offshore?

With tax-deferred accounts, I could not. This is one reason why I am very skeptical.

120   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 4:43pm  

So by borrowing from yourself you convert after-tax income to future taxable income.

Hence double taxed. ;)

121   Zephyr   2005 Jul 21, 4:47pm  

Yes. Double taxed eventually.

You mentioned moving the money offshore before 59.5 -- How can you do this without a taxable withdrawal?

122   Peter P   2005 Jul 21, 4:52pm  

You mentioned moving the money offshore before 59.5 — How can you do this without a taxable withdrawal?

It is not possible. So I am not very comfortable about it.

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