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The Galindo Mystery


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2007 Mar 8, 9:14am   22,029 views  221 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Most of the posts here tend to pretty much revolve around posting housing/economic news stats, debunking REIC propaganda, ranting about the NAR/Fed, sharing stories, parodying ignorant FBs, etc. This time, I have a genuine mystery for you to help solve.

A recent San Francisco Chronicle article, "ECONOMIC DEEP FREEZE
January cold spell inflicts hardship on the state's citrus workers"
contained the following excerpt:

Ruben Galindo, 44, Castanon's neighbor and a LoBue worker for 15 years, said, "Whatever little savings that we have, we are just not spending any. We are saving our pennies and nickels just to get us through the year.''

Galindo, with a wife and three kids, also has a mortgage and thinks he can handle two months of unemployment, but no more than that. He bought his house in Lindsay in 1995 and has thought about moving to El Paso, Texas, where housing costs are lower.

"But when prices of homes here go down, I won't be able to sell,'' Galindo said. "And they're already starting to come down.''

Ok, now here are the facts:

  • Galindo bought his house in 1995, so that's 12 years of (presumably continuous) mortgage payments, at a much, much lower cost-basis than today
  • Galindo was a LoBue worker for (again, presumably continuous) 15 years
  • Yet...

  • Galindo has very little savings, in fact no more than two month's worth
  • Galindo cannot afford to sell if/when house prices here come down
  • I really need your help here, because I just can't seem to reconcile the first two statements with the last two. From 1995 to 2007, house prices throughout virtually every part of California have at least tripled. So, even assuming Mr. Galindo took out an interest-only loan back in 1995 (not likely, as they were very rare back then), he must have at least 66.67% equity in his home by now, right? And if he has been more-or-less continuously employed since 1992 (with a very, very low housing cost basis), then how could he have almost zero savings? Even with the wife + 3 kids and assuming his job is of the low-skill/low-pay fruit-picking variety, and that his wife never works, this all seems somewhat hard to understand.

    Has Mr. Galindo cash-out refinanced his house each year since 1995 and used the money to take his family on annual round-the-world luxury cruises? Has his family dined exclusively on Chateaubriand, Maine lobster, pâté de foie gras, Italian black truffles, Kobe beef and Dom Perignon for the last 12 years? Is he single-handedly putting "Kitty", "Amber" and "Bambi" at the local gentleman's club through college?

    Unfortunately, this mystery is beyond my limited amateur-sleuth abilities to solve. Please help me out here.
    Thanks,
    HARM

    #housing

    « First        Comments 197 - 221 of 221        Search these comments

    197   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 5:20am  

    A "wonderful" article on Yahoo! about neighborhoods that are great buys. Their algorithm was to take the places where the median house had experienced the greatest gains in the last 5 years. What's that word that goes with savant? Because these "journalists" are definitely savants of some kind...

    http://tinyurl.com/2bwmz3

    198   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 11, 6:05am  

    fremontrenter Says:

    > Guys, I am currently a renter in CA. So I have to pay
    > after tax money to landlord every month. I claim standard
    > deduction on my tax return, but still have to pay AMT.
    > I was wondring if buying a ($780K) house (with a $130K down
    > payment) would solve both of these problems.

    Fremont Renter needs to talk to a CPA since if he has $130K in cash and is making enough to even think about buying a $780K home he should not be taking the standard deduction. The California taxes will be more than the standard deduction at just over $75K a year in income (about $70K salary + the 1099 interest on the $130K). I’m not a CPA, but I didn’t think it was possible to take the standard deduction “and” pay the AMT…

    199   Different Sean   2007 Mar 11, 6:21am  

    Does nirvana involve a Lexus?

    not usually. Enlightened Buddhists are supposed to practise 'the middle way', just like Tony Blair... The middle way would probably be a Camry, then...

    200   Different Sean   2007 Mar 11, 6:22am  

    (Buying a Camry would probably prove you have renounced all desires...)

    201   Jimbo   2007 Mar 11, 7:07am  

    fremontrenter,

    Yes, the Interest part of PITI is AMT deductable, but the "T" part is not. I know it is screwy, but the whole tax code is screwy and the more you make, the nuttier and nuttier it gets.

    FAB is right, you should not be taking the standard deduction in any case, unless you mean the $42,500 AMT deduction ($62,550 for married couples). It gets even worse when you start making more than $150k/yr (one HaHa), because then your deduction starts phasing out, making your federal marginal rate 35%. Add in 9.3% CA and 1.3% SDI and your overall marginal rate becomes 46% which makes home buying look more attractive. Make sure you use the right numbers in your calculations.

    http://www.smartmoney.com/tax/filing/index.cfm?story=amt

    Your tax situation is complicated enough that you should probably talk to a professional. Unfortunately, I cannot recommend one, since my CPA is not very bright.

    If you think that home prices are going down, it is probably not that good an idea to buy a home. I think all the regular posters here think that at least real home prices are going down, most think that marginal prices are headed for a drop as well. If you believe inflation is going to take off, this might be the one, since the interest on your mortgage will depreciate in real value along with your home. Check out Randy's bubblizer for details.

    astrid, my Vietnamese father-in-law is Buddhist and he is one of the worst examples of a bubble flipper I know. At one point he had six properties, but he never talks about it now. One thing I have noticed about him is that he tends to be pessimistic when things are going well and relaxed and hopeful when things are going poorly. My wife is the same way. This balances out my natural optimism nicely, actually, though I get annoyed at her sometimes when she doesn't want to celebrate our successes. Is that a Buddhist trait or something else, more akin to Taoism or just the Vietnamese or even family personality?

    I guess I might as well throw in my two cents on politics: I think John Edwards would beat any Yankee the Republicans might nominate, but it is really hard to say how Clinton or Obama would do against Guiliani. I always assumed that the GOP would never nominate an abortion rights candidate like Guiliani, but maybe they realize that McCain's pro-war stance has made him toast.

    202   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 7:24am  

    Jimbo,

    If Obama gets elected, they will try to undermine him with a scandal. If the scandal doesn't do him in, I'm afraid that he'll be the 5th U.S. President to be assassinated in office.

    203   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 7:33am  

    Which is a shame, because otherwise McCain is a stand-up guy.

    204   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 11, 8:03am  

    OpinionsPlease Says:

    > Quick question for anybody who knows. I heard that
    > deductions on rental property phase out after you make
    > something like $150,000? But is that entirely true?

    It is partially true. Anyone can deduct all rental property expenses (passive expenses) against all rental property income (passive income). There is a way that people who “Actively Manage” investment property but don’t make much of a salary (less than $150K) can reduce their taxable income (people that make a lot of money can just carry the passive loss forward).

    > Let’s say you are buying a 3rd property as a vacation or
    > rental home. On one’s taxes, can you treat it as a business?

    Yes, but if you treat it as a “business” you will need to prove to the IRS that you have a plan to make money (most people just cash the vacation rent checks and don’t mention the renal income to the IRS). It is actually legal to rent a home for up to 2 weeks a year and not declare any of the income (as long as you don’t deduct any expenses).

    > i.e. it costs $45,000/own through interest, HOAs, and property
    > taxes…. and if you only bring in say $25,000, you can reduce
    > your taxable income by $20,000 no matter what your income
    > is since it’s treated as a business?

    If you rent the place for 100 days at $250 a night and bring in $25K you will be safe telling the IRS that your net income is only $12,671 (before 100 days of depreciation and other expenses related to renting the place) since at $45K a year your expenses are $123 a night. It you want to claim more expenses you will need to prove that you were 1. not using the place and 2. actively trying to rent it…

    205   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 8:04am  

    OP: Don't know the answer to your question. I'm sure many people enjoyed the beautiful day. Have you played poker with the boys recently?

    206   Claire   2007 Mar 11, 8:26am  

    OT - just read this while looking for rental properties in Mountain View - what a deal - not!

    "my house is currently on the market for sale, because the housing market
    is very slow right now, and I haven't found a buyer yet, so I put it for rent;
    if you rent my house, you also agree that you will let my agent show
    the house to protential buyer when it needed.
    asking $2300.00/mth +deposit+ credit check. "

    But it is encouraging to know that Mountain View IS being affected and we ARE NOT special!

    207   SFWoman   2007 Mar 11, 8:37am  

    "The Repos have learned to spend better than any Demo. "

    Bap33,
    Look at what the current Republican administration has done to domestic spending and to the national debt and the national deficit. There is a higher percentage of people receiving financial assistance than at any previous time (this after Republican control of all three branches of government for years). You have been hoodwinked.

    These guys are in no way fiscal conservatives, they are massive, massive spenders. Bill Clinton looks like the most astounding, amazing fiscal conservative compared to the current administration. Take your blinders off, this administration has all of the fiscal restraint of a pack of drunken sailors with somebody else's credit card. They'll be long out of town and the damage done by the time the bill comes in.

    208   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 9:08am  

    "Buying a Camry would probably prove you have renounced all desires…"

    Except the desire for decades of hassle free, low cost ownership :)

    209   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Mar 11, 9:13am  

    Lexus is a fashion statement.

    Camry, built by Americans somewhere in the midwest, is a good value.

    210   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 11, 9:41am  

    SFWoman,
    I believe he was implying that Republicans are now as financially irresponsible as any democrat you'd care to point to.

    211   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 9:43am  

    I assume true Buddhists walk everywhere...mindfully...

    Tantric Buddhists can fly...

    212   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 9:56am  

    New thread: Ask a JBR.

    213   skibum   2007 Mar 11, 9:59am  

    This piece is on the front page of the Sunday New York Times today:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/11/business/11mortgage.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

    A login password is needed. An excerpt is below. As usual, the NYT is a day late and a dollar short, but it is on the front page...

    "Crisis Looms in Market for Mortgages "

    By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
    Published: March 11, 2007

    On March 1, a Wall Street analyst at Bear Stearns wrote an upbeat report on a company that specializes in making mortgages to cash-poor homebuyers. The company, New Century Financial, had already disclosed that a growing number of borrowers were defaulting, and its stock, at around $15, had lost half its value in three weeks.

    A Booming Market What happened next seems all too familiar to investors who bought technology stocks in 2000 at the breathless urging of Wall Street analysts. Last week, New Century said it would stop making loans and needed emergency financing to survive. The stock collapsed to $3.21.

    The analyst’s untimely call, coupled with a failure among other Wall Street institutions to identify problems in the home mortgage market, isn’t the only familiar ring to investors who watched the technology stock bubble burst precisely seven years ago.

    Now, as then, Wall Street firms and entrepreneurs made fortunes issuing questionable securities, in this case pools of home loans taken out by risky borrowers. Now, as then, bullish stock and credit analysts for some of those same Wall Street firms, which profited in the underwriting and rating of those investments, lulled investors with upbeat pronouncements even as loan defaults ballooned. Now, as then, regulators stood by as the mania churned, fed by lax standards and anything-goes lending.

    Investment manias are nothing new, of course. But the demise of this one has been broadly viewed as troubling, as it involves the nation’s $6.5 trillion mortgage securities market, which is larger even than the United States treasury market.

    Hanging in the balance is the nation’s housing market, which has been a big driver of the economy. Fewer lenders means many potential homebuyers will find it more difficult to get credit, while hundreds of thousands of homes will go up for sale as borrowers default, further swamping a stalled market.

    (continues)

    Of course,

    214   Boston Transplant   2007 Mar 11, 10:27am  

    Brand,

    The Yahoo article is written by fools, as you say. For Boston they mention Dorchester as an up and coming neighborhood. One of my friends rented an apartment in Dorchester for a while. He works for a federal agency that involves him carrying a gun, so let's just say he's not the type to shy away from a bad area. Well, after a year there he moved because it was too dangerous. When he would go for a jog (in plainclothes), the locals would tell him to "keep running, boy". And not in a friendly way either.

    215   Brand165   2007 Mar 11, 11:55am  

    Bap33: Maybe BostonTransplant's friend is black.

    216   Peter P   2007 Mar 11, 4:07pm  

    Driving a premium car CAN be a fashion statement.

    I think being driven in a true luxury car (e.g. RR, Bentley) can be a fashion statement.

    Too many people are driving Lexus for it to be a "statement". :)

    217   Jimbo   2007 Mar 11, 4:31pm  

    Unless the statement is "I am part of an original crowd."

    218   astrid   2007 Mar 11, 8:47pm  

    Peter P,

    Numbers never stopped the SUV drivers or the BMW 3 series crowd (though some of them might have bought them just for the car).

    219   Allah   2007 Mar 12, 1:27am  

    Nothing seems to disrupt the flow of lemmings.

    220   Peter P   2007 Mar 12, 2:33am  

    Unless the statement is “I am part of an original crowd.”

    That is an such a non-statement. :)

    221   Malcolm   2007 Mar 12, 11:54pm  

    'Too many people are driving Lexus for it to be a “statement”. '

    A Prius makes a more noticeable statement than a Lexus.
    People driving around in overpriced American luxury SUVs like Hummers, and Yukons now look like utter morons. Especially when you know that they used a HELOC to buy it. Ha ha ha ha ha.

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