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Peter P
2007 Mar 8, 3:12pm
Peter are you up in San Francisco? Where do you all meet?
Last blog party was down in Santa Barbara. It was a good labor day (?) trip.
A Black Forest cake is a multilayered (though not necessarily multi-tiered cake made with a dark chocolate batter, filled with sour cherries, kirsch syrup, and whip cream, then topped with dark chocolate shavings.
Scooter Libby was not convicted of outing Valerie Plame. He was convicted of obstruction of justice.
Why isn't Robert Novak in prison?
PAR,
LOVE the "top 10" list!
I realize you intended it primarily in jest but #9 isn't an entirely bad idea. I met our local District 18 Rep (really by accident) and afterwards left a msg. with his asst. If we're not talking about, who will?
Don't get me wrong I'm a free market guy but why is it that we continue to have bubbles that won't quit until AFTER they've hit the wall?
I have client appts. all day so please do keep up the good fight! :)
astrid,
Why isn't Robert Novak in prison? Must be that famous liberal media protecting him.
Instead of reporting on sob cases like Mr. Galindo (there must be tens of thousands of these in California alone) I would like to see some actual investigative reporting going on. I'd like to see some solid investigative stories about Doug Feith, about Avigdor Lieberman, about CEO pay/board relations, about the actual facts around the housing bubble, about Hillary Clintons voting record up to and after the war in Iraq (she just seems like a pro-choice neocon, IMO), about Halliburton's sales of nuclear technology (from their office in Tehran)in Iran into 2002.
But no, the 'liberal' media has given us such great, investigative reporting on the death of Anna Nicole Smith and Brittany Spears haircuts. The NYT reports on the Libby trial, but ignores real investigative reporting and has stories by Judith Miller that are basically just propoganda pieces for the VP's office.
Democracy can't survive without a functioning free press.
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 12:41am
I got my latest issue of SFO magazine (Stocks, Futures, and Options). Guess who is "SFO's 2007 American Hero" ?
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 12:49am
Eat ramen with caviar
Huh?
Cold udon with salmon "caviar" is pretty good though.
PAR,
The Realtor(TM) I used to buy my condo basically did your #7. We would go through a place and she'd comment 'Ugh, what a dump. You'd expect my client to pay for your clients' bad taste and remodel? Ugh' Or she'd say to the seller's agent 'Pacific Heights? You've advertised and priced like Pacific Heights but we're practically in the projects (Pine Street, in 1994).' Or my favorite 'I wouldn't let you buy this dump. Leased parking- hmph. I'll call your mother and talk to her if you try to buy this place. Your parking lease could expire and you'd be stuck parking and walking the streets at night. I won't let you buy this dump.' Right in front of the selling agent.
She probably wasn't too popular with other agents, but her clients loved her.
Unfortunately she died of breast cancer. She was a hoot.
sfbubblebuyer
2007 Mar 9, 1:15am
SFWoman,
She sounds hilarious! I bet the other agents tried to hide their open houses from her. :D
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 1:26am
Unfortunately she died of breast cancer. She was a hoot.
Sad. We need more funding in breast cancer research.
Anyone hear about a show called hidden potential? So this is the kind of crap that people are watching on TV? They take a POS house and turn it into something liveable. Such BS propaganda!!! Is this show funded by the NAR?
Did anyone else get this sent to them? Guiliani is toast, there's no way the Christian right will back this man.
I'm sure many of you have heard this already, but the #2 Subprime lender stopped issuing loans as of last night. They are expected to likely file for bankruptcy soon:
PAR:
Personally, I like item # 4 from your list
Pay your bills (since most of you actually can).
If jbrs are going to do well in a downturn, of course we can't be in debt on VISA and Mastercards when the time to buy comes!
OT can I mention I am starting my own cheaprealty website? It is nothing in the league of Patrick.net, but I can try.
No this is not spam, I have been posting here for several years, but if the moderators don't want me to say I have a web-site, delete my post!
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 2:14am
No this is not spam, I have been posting here for several years, but if the moderators don’t want me to say I have a web-site, delete my post!
Huh? :) Congrats.
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 2:19am
tsusiat, I love the Victoria area.
I believe that any RE correction up there is not going to happen for a while though. BC is now a highly international market.
sfbubblebuyer
2007 Mar 9, 2:26am
Did you see that NEW announced last night it's not originating any more loans as nobody will give them extend them a thin dime. They're the institutional equivilant of a FB now. The subprimes going bad are much like an ARM reset to them. And they can't get any more credit much like the FBs can't refi their no-longer appreciating homes.
From the CNN story on New Century. The have arranged to refinance $710 million of loans. I am assuming this is to get the FBs more favorable terms so they don't default... oh, and to get them out of purchase money, non-recourse loans. (Here Mr. FB, let me handcuff you to your front door.)
sfbubblebuyer
2007 Mar 9, 2:48am
They're pretty much guarenteed to go bankrupt at this point. Good job to the shorters who caught the wave! :D
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 2:54am
The question is how far will the subprime storm go.
I read that wall street firms are buying up subprime loans. I guess they are making friendly announcements before doing anything now. :)
Peter P
I hope you are wrong, but there are several factors pointing both ways -
in favour of a deflation or slow bursting
increasing inventory, I will post a chart about that later today.
unaffordability relative to local incomes
log run up in prices
strengthened Canadian versus US dollar
not in favour
baby boomer retirees selling up and moving to Victoria from Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto etc
Conservative lending practices that have not seen a proliferation of ARMS etc
Relatively strong local economy etc.
I still think HELOCs and other economic motors for the local economy may start grinding to a halt, but we will see what that means for local prices.
The last significant local price bust happened in around 1995-1996, a few years after it started in California.
We will see if the same pattern repeats itself this time.
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 3:04am
tsusist, I do hope that sanity will return soon.
However, I laugh whenever someone says everybody wants to live in the Bay Area, but I am less rude when someone says everybody loves British Columbia.
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 3:10am
It is also possible that the BC bubble may stay somewhat inflated (with some corrections) until the 2010 (winter olympics). Anticipation can be powerful at times.
Somehow locals there seem to be very bullish about the area. Well, they do have one of the prettiest city in the world.
They were bullish up until the Hong Kong handover to China, with an influx of moneyed Hong Kong chinese. The crash started about a year before the handover, though.
The Olympics will be nice advertising, but whether it can sustain a long term population influx of that much incluence remains to be seen.
How much effect did the winter olympics have on real estate prices in Salt Lake? I have no idea....
I know it didn't make that much difference to Calgary back in the 80s.
Personally, I think it is just another popular sentiment for realtors to hype.
Real estate is already so expensive in Whistler, more exposure can't do a lot to the market there.
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 3:22am
The Olympics will be nice advertising, but whether it can sustain a long term population influx of that much incluence remains to be seen.
Whatever possible optimistism about the upcoming Olympics has already been priced-in. Reality will decide if such optimistism has been overly optimistic.
How much effect did the winter olympics have on real estate prices in Salt Lake? I have no idea….
You cannot compare SLC to Vancouver. Everybody wants to... ;)
And Calgary? It is soooooo cold. Lower tax though.
Some more perspective from the archives (courtesy of S&P Case Shiller Index). So how bad was it in LA during the early nineties?
Peak: 100.24 (June 1990)
Low: 73.07 (March 1996)
Percentage drop: 27.1%
Depending on whose inflation numbers you use, this comes to about a 50% haircut in real terms.
EB Guy,
I will settle for a 25% haircut here in real terms, as long as it doesn't take until 2012!
Peter P
2007 Mar 9, 4:05am
I will settle for a 25% haircut here in real terms, as long as it doesn’t take until 2012!
What if the poles reverse in 2012?
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Most of the posts here tend to pretty much revolve around posting housing/economic news stats, debunking REIC propaganda, ranting about the NAR/Fed, sharing stories, parodying ignorant FBs, etc. This time, I have a genuine mystery for you to help solve.
A recent San Francisco Chronicle article, "ECONOMIC DEEP FREEZE
January cold spell inflicts hardship on the state's citrus workers" contained the following excerpt:
Ok, now here are the facts:
Yet...
I really need your help here, because I just can't seem to reconcile the first two statements with the last two. From 1995 to 2007, house prices throughout virtually every part of California have at least tripled. So, even assuming Mr. Galindo took out an interest-only loan back in 1995 (not likely, as they were very rare back then), he must have at least 66.67% equity in his home by now, right? And if he has been more-or-less continuously employed since 1992 (with a very, very low housing cost basis), then how could he have almost zero savings? Even with the wife + 3 kids and assuming his job is of the low-skill/low-pay fruit-picking variety, and that his wife never works, this all seems somewhat hard to understand.
Has Mr. Galindo cash-out refinanced his house each year since 1995 and used the money to take his family on annual round-the-world luxury cruises? Has his family dined exclusively on Chateaubriand, Maine lobster, pâté de foie gras, Italian black truffles, Kobe beef and Dom Perignon for the last 12 years? Is he single-handedly putting "Kitty", "Amber" and "Bambi" at the local gentleman's club through college?
Unfortunately, this mystery is beyond my limited amateur-sleuth abilities to solve. Please help me out here.
Thanks,
HARM
#housing