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We had exactly this discussion at tea this morning. The majority opinion, which included a Chinese fund money manager, a regional transportation manager, and a French journalist (diversity of background), was that it will be another S&L bailout.
I am the perpetual optimist, and would like to think that people will be held responsible for their actions, and am thinking (wishing??) that there will be repercussions for those who bought things beyond their means and the greedy folk who lent to them knowing there would be no hope of repayment. I am thinking repercussions such as losing the house and jail time or major fines for fraud (depending upon the extent by the individual).
Just what the hell can you do now?
Become a subject of the Grimaldis? Try San Miguel Allende?
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The subprime meltdown has swallowed its biggest victim. NEW is almost certain to file for bankruptcy as it doesn't have anywhere near 8+ billion to repurchase its mortgage obligations. CFC sees "earnings volatility" and LEND shares are down over 20% today (again).
Just 2 months ago everything was going to be fine in Goldilocks economy. Today, no one knows how bad it will get. The ARM resets are just beginning. In general there is near universal agreement that we are just at the beginning of a financial storm.
On MSN investor, Bill Fleckenstein says ...
One who does [understand] is Lou Ranieri, sort of the father of the mortgage bond market. In a recent interview, he warned: "This is the leading edge of the storm. . . . If you think this is bad, imagine what it's going to be like in the middle of the crisis." In his opinion, more than $100 billion of home loans are likely to default. ("Just divide $100 billion by the average loan amount and you get a lot of people, a lot of families.") He also expects to see some form of bailout at some point, because "foreclosures in those amounts are politically unacceptable."
The B-word again ! Coming not from a doom-gloom blogger but from a reputed source. So it's worth visiting this hated word again.
What kind of bailout ? Bailout who ? The lenders or the borrowers ? Or both ? By doing what ? Pumping liquidity ? Forgiving loans ? Giving tax breaks ? None of the above or all of the above and more ?
What kind of bailout do you see the government attempt ? What's your conspiracy theory ? Of course adding 3 zeros to everyone's bank balance is not what the Fed/Government will realistically do.
Bailout or no bailout. The economy won't be fine - to make an understatement. Even if the bailout comes from the Government, it will probably come too late and it's unlikely to help common folks who actually need it. This is just an observation of typical inadequacy of Government measures.
So as a financially conservative person who did not participate in the mad party, what do you do ? Just what the hell can you do now ?
StuckInBA
#housing