« First « Previous Comments 183 - 222 of 331 Next » Last » Search these comments
@ skibum,
Well, no argument there! However I do feel it's important to get to the root cause of issues and the more of us that chime in the harder it becomes to sweep it under the carpet!
I mean, what WOULD motivate a guy to buy a house when he knows his credit sucks, the payments are out of his comfort zone, will likely re-set (driving them further out of reach) and pay an inflated price along w/inflated taxes?
C'ain't be but one thang and that's FREE MONEY!
How many of them would still have thunk it's a "bargain" to go out on a limb like that if there wuz a balook'in tax bill at the end of it?
Mama-lukah-boo-boo-day! (I rest my case) :)
The only "victimized" borrowers are those who were forced to sign up for a mortgage loan at gunpoint. Anyone know any such borrower?
Everyone else chose to get into a loan worth millions of dollars over a period of thirty years, of their own volition. They are supposed to do the research; it is their responsibility. If you walk up to a stranger and offer him one hundred dollars of easy money, his first question would be "whats the catch?"
These people, in their greed, took on loans that they shouldn't have taken on. Some managed to sell at the peak and consider themselves to be real estate moghuls.
Those who didn't are suddenly victims? If someone's greed and stupidity blinds their innate sense of caution, how does that make them victims?
BTW, good analysis on this topic
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/03/1st-helicopter-drop-now-being-organized.html
A generally good economic blog.
The only “victimized†borrowers are those who were forced to sign up for a mortgage loan at gunpoint. Anyone know any such borrower?
This is exactly right! I have been saying this for years!
Borrowers who play this babe of the woods routine piss me off!!!
They commited a crime by lying on the application with help of a broker. Now they're going to get away with it?
I think I am going to hook up with a bunch of thugs and rob a bank! If I don't get caught, I'll be rich! If I get caught, I'll just say that they made me do it, they'll let me go and I'll be no richer or poorer! Sounds like a solid business plan to me.
Siriam,
Exactly. It's like the "victims" of all those spams from some Nigerian finance minister begging for help to free up his millions of dollars with a promise of a cut of the pie. These "victims" are victims of their own greed, stupidity and lack of common sense. Yes, some foreign "dignitary" has searched out YOU, Mr. Amerikan dude, as the best way for him to redeem himself in his noble effort. Go for it, but don't cry when you've lost your shirt!
allah,
Why rob a bank when you can just walk in during regular business hours and rob your OWN home w/a cash out re-fi?
Real estate is a souffle. It rises and rises. But when you poke it with a spoon, it will lose some air.
Does that mean if we open the oven door and peek at it, it will deflate?
(BTW...isn't the souffle analogy what that idiot "economist" from UOP keeps using-I forget his name?)
the "other",
Why waste your time here! You should be trying to outbid Casey when the spring bounce arrives! Buy now!
allah,
Why rob a bank when you can just walk in during regular business hours and rob your OWN home w/a cash out re-fi?
Less paperwork.
If they must bailout something, they should bailout the large banks.
Why? If individual FBs don't get a free pass, why should the banksters? Isn't letting bad BUSINESSES fail a critical part of the free market's "creative destruction"? Won't the FDIC reimburse middle & working-class depositors in the event of a bank failure (the only true innocent "victims" we should really be concerned about: people like us)?
Hell, I'll even go one further: If you had to choose between bailing out average dumbass FBs or the high-flying greedbag banksters at BofA, Wells-Fargo, Morgan Stanley, hedge funds, etc., which would you choose?
(A: Neither --yeah, I feel the same way.) But if you HAD to hold your nose and choose, which would it be? I'd take the regular schlub over Boomer McGreedbag any day.
Thanks to skibum & others for the write-your-Congress rep links. The idea of drafting a form letter or cut-'n-paste is a great idea. Anyone have any model examples they'd like to share here?
PAR - I understand what you are saying. But it took under 5 minutes to draft a couple of emails and send them out. Maybe it won't help, but it certainly won't hurt.
Thanks for Sue McAllister's email.
Why? If individual FBs don’t get a free pass, why should the banksters? Isn’t letting bad BUSINESSES fail a critical part of the free market’s “creative destruction�
I said "if they must".
But if you HAD to hold your nose and choose, which would it be? I’d take the regular schlub over Boomer McGreedbag any day.
Honestly, would you like to see billionaires losing billions (and still remain billionaires) or would like like to see your peers (i.e. resource competitors) losing their shirts?
Fine, I am being evil here. :twisted:
HARM,
Mish (Mike Shedlock) did a great piece that took the impacts of a bail-out to their logical conclusion and as you might suspect... it isn't pretty!
PAR - I understand what you are saying. But it took under 5 minutes to draft a couple of emails and send them out. Maybe it won’t help, but it certainly won’t hurt.
They probably have spam filters that look for stuff like:
"bailout"
"bastard"
"taxpayer"
"subprime"
"pissed off!"
"ARM rest"
that eats the email before it even gets to them.
In the U.S. Senate, Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (news, bio, voting record) said he may offer a bill to protect consumers who were "victimized" by subprime mortgages they can no longer afford.
I'm normally the biggest 1st amendment supporter, but this guy should be burned in public for sedition.
IIRC Senate staffers do a rapid for/against sort in high-volume email situations. Some mark thoughtful notes for a best-of folder. Some may filter, but I've never heard of it.
Wow, has Hell frozen over? The LA Times published an editorial I wholeheartedly AGREE with for a change:
When they bought their home in 2004, the Sanons had a feeling they were getting in over their heads - they were right.
Very intelligent people! I have a feeling a company is going to go under....I'm going to go out and buy stock in this company!
Malcolm, please choose your diction carefully. The word "burn" can have many meanings. :)
PAR :
The Sen Dodd bailout plan is a an election minded hoax. He is just trying to be the first one and posturing to be "on the side of millions of people". It's pure BS. Happens all the time in politics.
BUT. "The Bailout" will happen. It could come in any form. The FED has no choice but to reduce rates. Maybe 0.25 or 0.5 to start with and going to 4.0 by the end of the year. It would happen by bailing out the GSEs and letting them buy back all the bad debt from the bagholders. This will save GSE's, this will save the Wall Street banks.
Our friend "theotherside" is jumping here because he thinks it's going to hurt only the JBRs. The truth is, it will hurt the savers due to depreciating USD. But taxes will increase for everyone. And not rain on his parade, but the FBs are not going to get any benefit either. They ARE screwed. The bailout will come too late for any FB to benefit even it comes their way. Only the big banks, GSEs etc will be bailed out.
Isn’t letting bad BUSINESSES fail a critical part of the free market’s “creative destruction�
HARM, for the record, I don't think anyone should be bailed out, including (especially) the banks and the lenders. Banks are supposed to filled with intelligent, educated people who know how money works. They especially do not deserve to bailed out.
Let them all fail, I say.
Maybe some catastrophe is what this country needs to deter people from (a) looking for the next hot thing to "invest" and (b) spending money that they don't have on things they can't afford.
I thought something productive would be setting up trading positions for the upcoming storm.
Has anyone caught this article?
"You can't believe how bad it's going to get before it gets any better," the prominent U.S. fund manager (Jim Rogers) told Reuters by telephone from New York.
"It's going to be a disaster for many people who don't have a clue about what happens when a real estate bubble pops."
PAR,
(Sets down pitchfork)
That mindset is much more deeply entrenched over at Ben's. I don't think anyone here is seriously hoping for an end to banking as we know it. On the contrary, I've already said that subprime survivors will pick up and carry on where they left off. A little bruised but once you've had a taste of 3 pts. on a 500K loan honest work just doesn't cut it.
Banking as an institution isn't going to fail, here. Individual banks will. It's like saying the housing crash is going to ruin the american homeowner. Not true. It's going to ruin the FBs. People who own their homes outright, or who bought before the bubble will be fine. People who bought IN the bubble without extending themselves beyond their means will be fine, if poorer. They aren't FBers, just people who bought at a poor time. (And who, if they don't wind up having to move quickly, will be able to mitigage that 'poorer' a little bit.)
Individuals banks and individual borrowers who took risky bets on risky loans deserve no bail out. The banks will get bought for dimes on the dollar, and the borrowers will be back to renting.
Incidentally, there really ARE people who were 'victims' of the housing bubble. But the fraud there is more than "Get this loan, and if you can't pay it, sell and make a ton of cash!" That wasn't fraud. There was a place in the bay area offering 'mortgages' that turned out to be worded in such a way that the 'buyer' would never actually own the house. Instead the 'mortgage' company took their money, used it as a downpayment for THEM to buy the home, and then rented to the mark for enough to cover the mortgage. All of their contracts were set up to look exactly like mortgage forms, but they weren't. Helping these people get real mortgages for the original terms by seizing the assets of the company bilking these people and covering whatever else is reasonable.
Helping the idiots who bought into the housing bubble pay off their mortgages is not. Nor is giving taxpayer money to the banks who stupidly bought/funded these guys.
I know, we're just goofing around. This whole notion does have me a little pissed off because it is playing out exactly as I've talked about for years.
1st they paraded the lenders around, and even had Jesse Jackson testify about how all the deadbeats were conned by predators.
Now, the slippery slope reaches the bottom as heroic politicians discuss how they are going to rescue everybody.
My crystal ball tells me that you will make a lot of money on the back of both FB’s and JBR’s as a byproduct of your objectivity…
Actually in a way they are what props the country's economy up. They are the same people that order everything on TV for $19.95.
Why do they discuss tax relief in these bailout articles? The excessive interest is already tax deductible.
Malcom,
I was kind of scratching my head over that too? That's what makes all this talk so pointless. We've already bent over backwards as far as we can to accomodate RE as a "preferred" investment class what more can we do? Take over and make their payments YET still allow them to take the mort. int. ded?
Banking as an institution isn’t going to fail, here. Individual banks will. It’s like saying the housing crash is going to ruin the american homeowner. Not true. It’s going to ruin the FBs.
...Individuals banks and individual borrowers who took risky bets on risky loans deserve no bail out. The banks will get bought for dimes on the dollar, and the borrowers will be back to renting.
@SFBubbleBuyer,
Great rant --well said. You took the words right out of my mouth.
We’ve already bent over backwards as far as we can to accomodate RE as a “preferred†investment class what more can we do?
DinOR,
Loanownership is the Uh-merikan Dreamâ„¢, don'tcha know?
Listen Baby...
Ain't no mountain (of debt) high enough
Ain't no neg-am low enough
Ain't no implosion wide enough
If you need me, call me
no matter where you are
no matter how far --don't worry, baby
just call my name (Sen. Dodd)
I'll be there in a hurry
you don't have to worry
[chorus:]
'Cause baby there
Ain't no mountain (of debt) high enough
Ain't no neg-am low enough
Ain't no implosion wide enough
To keep me from getting to you Mr. & Mrs. FB
Remember the day
I set you free (on taxpayers' dime)
I told you you could always count on me darling
From that day on
I made a vow
I'll be there when you want me
some way somehow...
This "expert" doesn't have a f*cking clue as to what median mans ! It's kind of funny and sad at the same time. (Sad because people actually believe them as experts.)
From Realty times :
http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20070314_mrktconditions.htm
"The median list price for single family homes in Fremont is $730,000, and the median sales price appears to have increased to $750,000. That is amazing, since many homes sold up to as much as 8 percent below recent comparables," notes one local expert.
A bit off topic, but this property is on my FB watchlist. Very exciting as the seller is now motivated (which means the listing should languish for another six months).
$1745000 New Price!!! Motivated seller will look at all offers. ELMWOOD (berkeley)
But that's not all, you get a discount if you let the realtor work as a double, secret agent :-)
***Buyers*** If I represent you with your offer, I will credit you back 1% ($17,4950).
http://www.teamfeusier.com/Featured_20_Listings.html
I think I have started sounding like a broken record. Since I was so outnumbered here, I kept looking to verify my gut feelings and post any evidence I find supporting my view. Anything that does not support my arguments, I just forget to mention here. :-)
So here is another one. Median up but individual houses ARE going down in prices. The buyers are not bidding up, they are negotiating down. See my previous post. And also see DQ's latest weakly SJMN numbers. The price per sqft has been down and remained down from the peak. From 507 for most of the spring-summer of last year to 485 for all this year.
« First « Previous Comments 183 - 222 of 331 Next » Last » Search these comments
Subprimes selling off again. Lots of pundits feigning astonishment that there might actually be a 2nd leg to the correction. Heaven forfend.
I'm not a full time investment professional, just someone who works with finance & economics a good bit. I'm hoping to get comment from our pros:
How far is the subprime ill likely to spread (US & Int'l)? I doubt it the damage remains isolated to lenders, banks and homebuilders. I also doubt it is likely to undermine CalPERS and leave grandma begging for bread crusts on the street.
For what it's worth, I think there's going to be at least a couple more nasty down-legs as hedge funds start eating it. A lot of "hedge" funds forgot the whole "hedge" part of "hedge fund". I expect a lot of mayhem as the lucky ones unwind and the others dissolve.
And I think most of the pundits are missing the big credit/liquidity squeeze that's approaching. Consumer spending hasn't been all HELOC driven, there's a whole pile of "junk" debt sitting around that people used to buy all the crap they have today. All it takes is for the Capital One's to start pulling in risk a bit -- making it a bit harder and more expensive to buy crap on credit -- and the early legs of this correction will be but fond memories.
Let's hope employment does stay strong long enough to stave off good old fashioned stagflation. Luckily, so far so good. Steep losses in real estate related employment are being absorbed by other industries. So far.
#housing