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What do you think of the Fed?


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2007 Mar 20, 8:36am   26,148 views  259 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (60)   💰tip   ignore  

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Is the Fed really responsible for the housing mess? They definitely contributed through their interest rate cuts, but buyers and realtors must also have some responsibility.

And is the Fed as wicked as the non-mainstream press believes? There are dozens of sites accusing the Fed of keeping the rest of us down through inflation and various shady deals, but I've never heard a really convincing explanation. As I understand it, a little inflation is good because it encourages people to invest or spend rather than simply sit on their money.

Patrick

#housing

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125   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 8:02am  

Grow some wheatgrass and catnip for your kitties.

Tried. They somehow overturned the pot and it got messy. :(

127   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Mar 21, 8:08am  

Astrid,
I have no place to put said planters that would get any sort of light. :(

I need to rent me a place with a yard. Seriously.

128   DaBoss   2007 Mar 21, 8:10am  

I grew up in Sunnyvale and find it funny that people would be willing to pay that much. $1M for Los Altos Hills, Saratoga or Los Gatos (Much Better Schools too), Yes that anyone can understand.

But ... (im dying laughing here) $1M+ for Sunnyvale... Oh man! There is a sucker born every minute. You can count seeing those home down in value pretty deep. There is nothing extordianary about Fremont School District. Its a working class school district many of its graduates turn out out to be junky addicts. Besides SV and Sunnyvale will not have booms like we had before. IPO market is dead and Private Equity/M&A is the path many are about to take... Palm is rumored to be a buy out candidate. No Sunnyvale employer is willing to subsidize that kind of conspicuous consumption by their employees. That was tried and failed badly by late 80's. That why we have tech recession that are seperate from national recessions.

Yea! I know .. Google this google that.. but even when you had Intel AMD National boom years prices never went that far. Maybe check up on Zillow and find that homes in 1993 were around $250-30K in Sunnyvale.
$1M+ what a joke!!! Fortress Sunnyvale has thin walls! Watch it pop!
Anyone who was born and raised here will tell you that.

129   astrid   2007 Mar 21, 8:14am  

SFBB,

There are HD lights that could mimic the sun (and stave off winter light deprivation)...however, even I recognize that's going too far for tomatoes.

There's always the local farmer's market or CSA.

130   Jimbo   2007 Mar 21, 8:14am  

No, you actually move the AGI line from the federal income to the state, so if it is deductible from the Fed, it is deductible from the state.

That is how CA does it, anyway.

The only time it becomes sticky is when you pay AMT, then you actually get to deduct some things from state taxes, but not from federal.

I don't know of any situations where it is the other way around.

I am not an accountant, though, you should talk to an expert.

I grow tomatoes in my back yard in Noe Valley, but I have to grow them in pots on the second floor deck so that they get enough light. I tried growing them in the garden last year and none of them produced fruit.

What kind of seeds astrid? Early girls? I like early girls...

131   lunarpark   2007 Mar 21, 8:15am  

I second that Space Acer. I grew up in Mountain View. I remember thinking of Sunnyvale as really gross when I was a kid. Oh wait...

Actually the part the borders Los Altos is pretty nice, but that's a thin slice.

132   astrid   2007 Mar 21, 8:17am  

Jimbo,

I'm a tomato snob so no Early Girl. You can read my list at http://dazrulz.blogspot.com

133   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 8:20am  

I had my best tomato in Santa Barbara.

134   e   2007 Mar 21, 8:21am  

No, you actually move the AGI line from the federal income to the state, so if it is deductible from the Fed, it is deductible from the state.

Right, but the AGI is -before- deductions. Right?

135   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 8:21am  

1M+ in Sunnyvale? I rather get a condo (with elevator) in San Mateo or Burlingame.

136   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 8:22am  

Right, but the AGI is -before- deductions. Right?

Huh? Isn't AGI "adjusted"?

137   e   2007 Mar 21, 8:23am  

Fortress Sunnyvale has thin walls! Watch it pop!
Anyone who was born and raised here will tell you that.

It's different this time. All the old people in Sunnyvale will be fleeing just like in Cupertino.

Look at: http://wsjclassroom.com/teen/teencenter/05nov_whiteflight.htm

138   e   2007 Mar 21, 8:25am  

Right, but the AGI is -before- deductions. Right?

Huh? Isn’t AGI “adjusted”?

On the 1040, AGI is computed at line 37.

Deductions happen at line 40 in "Taxes and Credits" (38-57).

139   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 8:27am  

It’s different this time. All the old people in Sunnyvale will be fleeing just like in Cupertino.

Sunnyvale has way too many kids. Do people realize that kids have poor ROI in the Bay Area? I prefer mature neighborhoods.

140   Allah   2007 Mar 21, 8:27am  

C'mon everyone, tell this realtor on his blog why buying is not a good idea. He wants to know why people choose to rent instead.

142   Jimbo   2007 Mar 21, 8:30am  

My two cents about the Fed: I think they did an amazing job of keeping the US out of a serious and deep recession in 2001, by lowering the interest rates. I was personally expecting a much deeper, longer and harder recession.

The last time we had an asset bubble of the same proportion pop, it precipitated the Great Depression.

The Fed was not the only one that acted wisely, the federal government did a good job in not acting protectionist, allowing global expansion to help pick the US off the floor.

Granted, it just shifted the bubble to a real estate expansion, but so far we have been able to manage that reasonably well as a nation. I know it has hurt many of the regular posters here, so that is probably not a very popular position to take, but if you step back and look at it from a national perspective, a bit of home price inflation is a small price to pay to avoid the suffering that comes from a recession. Some people believe that recessions are needed, to wring excess capacity from the economy, but I personally believe that is very Second Wave thinking. What excess capacity do we have in a knowledge economy? Too many accountants? No one keeps any inventory to speak of anymore. Too many houses? That problem will take care of itself. And yes, there will be something very much like a recession for the homebuilders, but there is no reason that they have to take everyone else down with them. I guess we have replaced economy-wide recessions with rolling sector "recessions" which is a good thing, imho.

Recently, Bernanke has done better than expected. Most incoming Fed chiefs immediately engineer recessions. I don't know why they all do it, but they all seem to. Bernanke has so far pulled off the difficult to do "soft-landing." The jury is still out.

The Fed has obviously fallen down on their oversight responsibility though. Too many of those sub-prime loans simply should not have been made. I did not even realize that The Fed was expected to manage things like that. How would they do it? Ask Congress to write laws? I don't think The Fed has direct regulatory authority.

143   DaBoss   2007 Mar 21, 8:36am  

"It’s different this time. All the old people in Sunnyvale will be fleeing just like in Cupertino."

Already! did starting back in 1988 due to recession. No one wanted to live here.

Oh i agree about white flight... but wait a minute... you give out dumb exams and asian pass it with flying colors... what does that tell you...
Yes they are smart for passing dumb exams to begin with.

Back in my day it was all Chicano and Whites and few Philippinoes
hardly any from China/Japan.. very rare if all...
We did have lots of Vietnamese back in 1977-80.. (smart kids that aced lots of exams) too but very few here.
The local school system does not deserve any credit for the test scores we see today. That would not have happend if the many from HK prior to 1997 did not settle here. Smart kids yes! but its a dumbdown school district no.

A Asian classmate from my University got 4.0 (Accounting Degree) but could not speak clear english at all. Could not get a job except for the IRS. Like I said he aced every exam!

144   Allah   2007 Mar 21, 8:41am  

My two cents about the Fed: I think they did an amazing job of keeping the US out of a serious and deep recession in 2001, by lowering the interest rates. I was personally expecting a much deeper, longer and harder recession.

No, all they did was delay the recession and because of the delay, it is going to be worse than it would have been, much worse.

The recession is just beginning. How could you possibly believe that a recession will just be confined to just a few sectors? Everyone is going to cut back on spending which is going to swallow up many jobs, which will cause more defaults, which will cause prices to fall more... repeat infinitum.

The fact that a great many are already overstretched from buying overinflated houses or drawing out huge amounts of equity that is no longer there is going to probably lead to a depression.

145   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 8:46am  

A Asian classmate from my University got 4.0 (Accounting Degree) but could not speak clear english at all. Could not get a job except for the IRS. Like I said he aced every exam!

I will think twice before hiring anyone with a 4.0/4.0 GPA. (3.96 is probably acceptable though) Test-takers are worthless in the real world. I am under the impression that the smartest kids usually have GPA from 1.7 to 3.5.

146   DaBoss   2007 Mar 21, 8:59am  

"Whites aren't quitting the schools because the schools are failing academically. Quite the contrary: Many white parents say they're leaving because the schools are too academically driven and too narrowly invested in subjects such as math and science at the expense of liberal arts and extracurriculars like sports and other personal interests."

Yes these kids are going to do well. They would have done well anyway anywhere because their culture and family puts lots of pressure on education and not sports or partying. I dont expect to see Raj or Ming on Pot possession anytime soon, like so many of my classmates from Sunnyvale High back in the day.

Good luck to these kids.... They will do very well!

147   Jimbo   2007 Mar 21, 9:02am  

allah,

Yes, I know this is the gloom and doom, the sky is falling blog. It has been for years, but so far the American economy has been steaming along just fine. People here have gone so far as to advocate stocking up on gold, food and ammo, just because the stock market had a minor hiccup.

My bet is that we will muddle through somehow. Some smart kid somewhere will discover something new that will cause an unexpected productivity boom. America will grumble, but learn to live with $5/gallon gasoline. Peace (or at least the absence of American soldiers) will break out in Iraq, saving the US economy $100s of billions a year. Internationalization will continue to improve the overall standard of living of people all over the world, perhaps at the cost of the American working class, which is already greatly weakened, but there are going to be plenty of new jobs taking care of the elderly boomers once they start retiring.

Don't bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans. It always ends up being a bad bet.

148   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 9:04am  

Yes these kids are going to do well.

That depends on what you mean by doing well. Working a 6-digit engineering job is not doing well in my book.

Personal development is much more important than skills. You can hire skills but you cannot hire ideas and insights.

149   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 9:05am  

Don’t bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans.

I agree.

150   Allah   2007 Mar 21, 9:09am  

allah,

Yes, I know this is the gloom and doom, the sky is falling blog. It has been for years, but so far the American economy has been steaming along just fine. People here have gone so far as to advocate stocking up on gold, food and ammo, just because the stock market had a minor hiccup.

My bet is that we will muddle through somehow. Some smart kid somewhere will discover something new that will cause an unexpected productivity boom. America will grumble, but learn to live with $5/gallon gasoline. Peace (or at least the absence of American soldiers) will break out in Iraq, saving the US economy $100s of billions a year. Internationalization will continue to improve the overall standard of living of people all over the world, perhaps at the cost of the American working class, which is already greatly weakened, but there are going to be plenty of new jobs taking care of the elderly boomers once they start retiring.

Don’t bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans. It always ends up being a bad bet.

Considering all the outsourcing, I don't see much of a future for "these kids". We are at the very beginning of a big fallout. No one gets out of here alive!

151   DaBoss   2007 Mar 21, 9:19am  

"Working a 6-digit engineering job is not doing well in my book."

So are we saying the a recent grad should get 7or 8 digit salary.
You got to start somewhere... why not 6 digit at first...the bottom and work yourself up.
Between 5-10 years then you get personal development and creative skills. if at all, or move to another profession.

Besides you do a great disservice to the talented vets who already have 10-15 years experience.

"Don’t bet against the creativity and ability to adapt of America and Americans."

Complancy is not what I call adapting. Too many for example are waiting for the next thing in Silicon Valley so they can join and reap the rewards.
If you have the nack you should be the ONE that will is making the next big thing in SV. Those people are very rare for find.

152   FormerAptBroker   2007 Mar 21, 9:25am  

allah Says:

> C’mon everyone, tell this realtor on his blog why
> buying is not a good idea. He wants to know why
> people choose to rent instead.

I actually agree with this guy and I would buy if I lived in Indiana right now since when I clicked through to see the homes in the area I saw a nice 3/2 and a nice 3/3 for ~$130K (that is not much more than the sticker price of my car with all the options)…

153   e   2007 Mar 21, 9:26am  

That depends on what you mean by doing well. Working a 6-digit engineering job is not doing well in my book.

So what -is- doing well? Aside from 7 digits?

154   DaBoss   2007 Mar 21, 9:26am  

"Considering all the outsourcing, I don’t see much of a future for “these kids”. We are at the very beginning of a big fallout. No one gets out of here alive!"

Outsourcing the result of the workforce being expensive and overspending on part of employers (bad management style). Back in the day AMD overestimated the market as pure gravy 79-85 and spent like drunken sailors. Not to mention they actually had a no lay off policy. Boy were they in fairy land. No doom and gloom there... then it happened. And man did that hurt like a mother******er.

If we had good experienced managment and inexpensive salary professionals, we wouldnt need outsourcing. As long as employee costs are under constantly decaying margins we can all do well. Predictable and stable growth vs bom/bust patterns. This was much talked about by Michael Malone from his 1980's Silicon Valley programs on PBS. He later wrote this in his books.

155   astrid   2007 Mar 21, 9:27am  

The main problem with test taking mentality is that those kids think the "truth" is knowable and written down in a textbook somewhere. They lose the ability to step back and see the big picture. Still, probably okay for low level accounting/engineering/betatesting/fry cook...until a grease fire starts.

156   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 9:31am  

So are we saying the a recent grad should get 7or 8 digit salary.

No, but something more entrepreneurial would be good, even if it pays very little in the beginning.

Between 5-10 years then you get personal development and creative skills. if at all, or move to another profession.

In 5-10 years you will be have permanent head damage and no creative skills left. A house purchase will ensure that you stay put and take less risks.

If you have the nack you should be the ONE that will is making the next big thing in SV. Those people are very rare for find.

Exactly. Simply doing well in school will not help at all. In fact, it may hurt.

157   astrid   2007 Mar 21, 9:33am  

Where are these 6 figure making newly minted engineers again?

Can I just state again that the only newly minted graduates pulling (low) six figures are the top quartile of the graduates of top 20 law schools and top 10 biz schools. And even that's not a guarantee, they go to high pressure sink or swin situation and plenty of them sink.

158   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 9:34am  

The main problem with test taking mentality is that those kids think the “truth” is knowable and written down in a textbook somewhere.

Exactly.

The big enlightenment: the truth will set you BACK.

One should seek to create the truth, not to find it.

159   DaBoss   2007 Mar 21, 9:36am  

"Still, probably okay for low level accounting/engineering/betatesting/fry cook…until a grease fire starts."

Actually its the other way around. For accountants ... you learn how should it run and your experience dictates on how to approach and fix it and or implement so it doesnt turn in grease fire.

160   Allah   2007 Mar 21, 9:36am  

> C’mon everyone, tell this realtor on his blog why
> buying is not a good idea. He wants to know why
> people choose to rent instead.

I actually agree with this guy and I would buy if I lived in Indiana right now since when I clicked through to see the homes in the area I saw a nice 3/2 and a nice 3/3 for ~$130K (that is not much more than the sticker price of my car with all the options)…

That could be true for Indiana, I didn't realize it was an Indiana realtor. The post was very general though, not specifying Indiana. Another thing, how good is the job market and salary there? I know they had some pretty high foreclosure rates there.

161   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 9:36am  

Astrid, the point is that most "dream jobs" of Asians are not that lucrative indeed. The number of digits in the salary is irrelevant.

I like lawyers though. ;)

162   jtfrankl   2007 Mar 21, 9:40am  

Peter P,

May I ask what you do? I don't mean this in a confrontational way, as in "what makes you so great?". I am an occasional lurker and l always find myself wondering these things about the regular contributors. It wouldn't surprise me if there was an old thread along these lines, but I haven't seen it.

163   astrid   2007 Mar 21, 9:40am  

One more thing about test taking mentality are the "cheating is okay" or that you can find a silver bullet and win every time. It truly devalues humanity, ingenuity, ethical conduct and hard work.

164   Peter P   2007 Mar 21, 9:40am  

May I ask what you do?

I am an engineer.

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