patrick.net

Bap33, so I guess the new UC is doing nothing special to the Merced housing market? :)

Privatizing schools will take care of many issues. I is idiotic to tie schools to places of residence. This is horrible inefficient.

"cupertino school part of sunnyvale, two houses both
just sold for 10% over asking ($1.16M and $1.253M)."
The school district is call Fremont High School District.
You better look up Bellermine and St Francis HS if you are serious
about real schools who are excellent in education. Presentation is also top notch. I still recall the dopers and deadheads from Sunnyvale and Fremont High.

There is no such thing as a million dollar home in Cupertino.
A few exist near the hills near LAH or St Creek Dam...but thats a few...

That old 1500 sq ft Eckerd homes you see plenty of in Sunnvyale and Cupertino are more worth around 2-300K...Cheaply built real Dumps...If you told someone back in the 80's and 90's they would sell of over $1M many would think your nuts.

Here's a an entertaining craigslist post about a house you're not allowed to look at, let alone bid on, unless you're pre-screened by the selling agent.

Nothing like the advertising trick of saying "Pffft, you're not good enough for our product!" to make people want it all the more.

I bet that hosue is going to be WAY over priced.

"Privatizing schools will take care of many issues. I is idiotic to tie schools to places of residence. This is horrible inefficient."

You mean all that those high high prices that generate higher property tax that would fual better education isnt working. Just like the California Lotto that was created in early 80s dont work either. Dont even mention privatization to a HS teachers, they are all union.

6496 Rainbow Dr,
San Jose, CA 95129
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,300 sq ft
For Sale: $918,000

Mark up of 100%...I pity the fool that even thinks its work $450K
A rude awakening for dumb buyer....

03/07/2007: $992,000
12/13/1994: $295,000

---Some nominal increases in median in some markets as high end props are sold and those in lower end have seen a decline. its easy reallly.

That’s what realtors here are publically saying is happening in Marin and which has been going on for months. The county median/average is such a useless statistic.

Shouldn't that mean that while MEAN is increasing MEDIAN should be decreasing? For both to go down then there would need to be fewer low end props selling than high end props.

I have a different read -- both MEAN and MEDIAN are fairly stagnant, and all the movement we see is resultant from a rising standard deviation.

*increasing, 1st word, 2nd line.

If you told someone back in the 80’s and 90’s they would sell of over $1M many would think your nuts.

Well back then they were still making more land and it wasn't special.

There's a mildly good discussion about where prices are heading on this thread:

http://www.yelp.com/topic/rDp0r5MtesBaUfS6ee1TpQ?fsid=V_FHAD7imW4y1K7CCr-51w

a) I do NOT believe a bust will occur in the BA; however, I think a smaller, slower decline of 10-15% over a few years is probable.

Agree? Disagree?

Dorcas,

Way cool chart! Now all we need to do is create a third line on the graph to show subprime lenders going belly up for the "full effect"!

"I pity the fool"

Let's save that for a future thread. Mr. "T" and an FB sharing a cell. Guess who's going to be the "mommy"? I know, I know, that's a visual we could all live without!

eburbed,

I tend to.....disagree. Not only do I feel there will not be a 10-15% correction in the BA, homes will actually continue to appreciate. :)

Randy H Says:

> 118 Neider Ln, Mill Valley 94941
> Sale History
> 02/28/2007: $1,200,000
> 02/28/2007: $1,900,000

The info I show is:

1997: The 3,216 sf 5br 4ba home on a ¼ acre lot was built
10/20/05: $1,725,000 sold to Sirva Relocation, LLC
02/27/07: $1,900,000 sold to Christopher J. Harney & Barbara B. Harney (Sale recorded on 02/28/07 and a first TD of $1.3mm)

I can’t see the actual recorded document in .pdf for this property.

LOL! eburbed said

"Well back then they were still making more land and it wasn’t special."

Actually again, many did say that land was limited back many years/decades. Nothing new.

However, I never heard anyone boast about this area before as we hear today. I often ask, who are these idiots?

Take DinORs, comments...'homes will actually continue'... yea right... Many peoples jobs will be moved elsewhere if this continues.

FAB

Numerous thanks. Does a first TD $amount mean the amount owed to lender or the amount owned by buyer? Should I read this that the guy took a $1.3m loan?

Space_Acer,

Isn't it funny that when money is expensive there's no great sense of urgency to build. Yet when money is cheap WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF LAND! (Oh and every place becomes "more special")

We dont need to build more homes,
There is no shortage of housing.
Because we dont need to hire more
people, however if the current workforce
continues to become more expensive
where employers are unable to create
a profit will force them to seek lower cost
workers elsewhere. At the end of the day,
its all about the numbers.

Its no accident that we have programers working
for feed by local employers in China/India.

Just like the textile/auto industry we too
in SV have matured.

speedingpullet,

The SF Zoo is in the Outer Parkside and it is one of San Francisco's more affordable neighborhoods. Of course these things are all relative, but you can get a pretty nice home for ~$700k there. This is probably the cheapest area in The City that is not crime ridden. It is very foggy, though.

My wife who grew up here in the Bay Area always said, the weather is very nice, the landscape is beautiful, but not that this price.

The funny thing is, sometimes we meet these new immigrants or out-of-state migrants who just came to the Bay Area just a few years ago explaining to my wife why BA is so special and the housing price well justified. She is like, oh really? Thanks for the enlightenment.

Isn’t it funny that when money is expensive there’s no great sense of urgency to build. Yet when money is cheap WE’RE RUNNING OUT OF LAND! (Oh and every place becomes “more special”)

Exactly! Since they aren't going to be giving money out as easily as they were you can now say:

"Buyers, they're not making any more of them!"
"Sell now, while you still can or you'll be priced in forever"

OO -
Both funny, sad and very dangerous... Maybe someone needs to explain to them the deflationary nature of the local tech economy, what makes it grow and what will destroy it.

The funny thing is, sometimes we meet these new immigrants or out-of-state migrants who just came to the Bay Area just a few years ago explaining to my wife why BA is so special and the housing price well justified.

Although clearly current house prices are not justified, natives of the BA and other "prime" areas often take their environs for granted. Having grown up in the Midwest I will argue with anyone that there is, and should be a premium for the BA and other great areas of the world.

...I await the requisite "teh bay area suxorz" replies, keeping in mind that 99% of those folks wouldn't survive 2 months living where I grew up.

I await the requisite “teh bay area suxorz” replies, keeping in mind that 99% of those folks wouldn’t survive 2 months living where I grew up.

teh wolrd sux.

Dorcas

So I don’t mean to seem rude just posting out of nowhere, but I hardly ever post anything on any blog I read

If only that were the extent of "rudeness" that sometimes passes around here. Seriously, everyone is welcome to post. No need to be shy, it's just a blog after all :)

I await the requisite “teh bay area suxorz” replies, keeping in mind that 99% of those folks wouldn’t survive 2 months living where I grew up.

The Bay Area really does do a good job of producing people who can't live anywhere else.

A few years ago I met a guy who had just returned from a 4 month stint in Houston (consultant). He said he couldn't wait to get back here because it wasn't diverse there.

(But what he really meant was "It isn't 30.2% Asian there".)

I also met someone who did a stint in Boston. She couldn't wait to move back because it was too cold and gloomy there.

Go fig, maybe this is the most perfect place in the world. :(

I also met someone who did a stint in Boston. She couldn’t wait to move back because it was too cold and gloomy there.

What about Chowdah and raw littleneck clams?

I just came from an auction where a 1 million dollar home which needed some serious work just sold for 1.155 million. There are still some suckers out there.

Auction is a form of psychological manipulation. You need to be very detached to be successful. If any participant has any "passion" about the object, game is over.

Randy H Says:

> Question for experts:
> What does it mean when a homes sells and
> is recorded twice in the same day.

This is a situation where a speculator put a deposit down on a lot and found a buyer before the project was even finished. This is a classic flip.

Randy -

"I will argue with anyone that there is, and should be a premium for the BA and other great areas of the world."

And who do you expect will to pay you a salary so you can in turn pay premium $$ for housing. We are not like other great areas of the world, our economy is pegged to deflationary products we make. We are in short more Walmart in many ways.

Eburb writes'

"The Bay Area really does do a good job of producing people who can’t live anywhere else."

Well now as you may know, only 1/3 of Natives still live in California. Many are actually living in Utah, Or, Wash, Tx and Nevada.

I know many who I grew up started to move outofstate starting in the 80s and into 90's.... Did BA fail them?

On a BWOnline artifcle, they wrote about rent:

"In general, price trends in the apartment sector are inversely related to those in the housing market. When home prices increase, as they did between 2001 and 2005, rental rates decrease. After the price runup, which made homeownership unaffordable to many, renting became a better option and rates skyrocketed."

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2007/db20070110_511187.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5

Does this make any sense? Wouldn't an increase in house prices increase underlying rent as it is the way owners extract value from their asset?

Peter You said

"Auction is a form of psychological manipulation"

Do you prefer your realtor to tell you...
"There are other bidders, Can you go 10% above asking?
And you ask "What are the other bids and who are the bidders?"
To which they reply... "I dont know, look do you want this or not"
..Trust but verify...Nice Jedi Mind Trick... I hope you really trust your realtor and really believe he isnt ripping you off. Trust me its happening every day.

Does this make any sense? Wouldn’t an increase in house prices increase underlying rent as it is the way owners extract value from their asset?

Renting and purchasing are alternatives to each other. On the other hand, asset pricing is driven primarily by expectations of future pricing. Here we have an interesting interaction between the two.

Do you prefer your realtor to tell you…
“There are other bidders, Can you go 10% above asking?

People can tell me anything. I listen to my inner voice. (And my astrologers.)

Trust me, auctions can be brutal. This is why I will only use Buy It Now at eBay.

You can't force rents higher because your mortgage is high. With a bunch of new houses going up and people buying houses, the number of people renting decreased, lowering demand, thus lowering prices. You'll see the occasional FB trying to rent a 3/2 for enough to cover his PITI, but they won't be able to rent them out for that, and quickly drop down to close to 'market' rate. It slows the hemmoraging of cash.

Rents dropped because a lot of people left the BA after the dot com crash, and there was much more rental space than was necessary. With people buying all the new housing going up, even fewer rentals were required. With the speculators now trying to rent out their properties, I doubt we'll see much of an increase in rent even as the foreclosures start the shove FBs back into the rental market.

If a lot of speculators and FBs manage to hang on to their homes through the next ten years, we may see the 'golden' era of renting here in the BA... Housing stagnant, but rents not rising either.

Home prices from 1998 to today have been artifically inflated by number of factors. Rentals were inflated in 1997-2000 due to shortage of housing,
hwoever once demand for workers declined so did rental prices.

I quick note... Back in 1991-93
Home prices fell,
Rental cost fell,
Interest Rates fell.
In 1990 the workforce of SV was around 850K, todays its the same number if not less. So demand for housing has been flat for 15+ years.

Today home prices however have gone up 400% in 10 years...
never has this happened before in history.

"Here we have an interesting interaction between the two."

Peter, I would say we have an interesting "Divergence" of the two...
Just like the Divergence of NASD new economy and Dow old economy.
One went to the moon while the other did so so... we are no where near 10,000 on the NASD Y2K peak... we may never see that in our life time again.

Does a first TD $amount mean the amount owed to lender or the amount owned by buyer? Should I read this that the guy took a $1.3m loan?

Yes---buyer put $600K down and took out a $1.3M loan.