patrick.net

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

If you need to know whether you’ll need an umbrella or not before going out, you NEEDN’T consult a graph for it. You simply look out the F’ing window and see for yourself what the weather’s like.

Interesting analogy. So, you never watch a weather report then? When you leave for work, you just look out the window, right?

Another report from today. For anyone else who thinks wages are not rising...

"Incomes rose for the sixth time in seven months, boosting household finances and potentially providing fuel for greater future spending."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Americans-spend-more-in-May-apf-966568080.html?x=0

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Isn’t it an AMAZING concept?
And here’s ANOTHER crazy thing I do; instead of consulting a graph in order to determine if I’m HUNGRY or not, I simply rely on my stomach to tell me. Will wonders never cease?

Again--great analogy. I'd say deciding to eat is pretty much the same as deciding to buy a house...

btw--do you get wet on the way home from work a lot?

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

No, I DON’T because I always look out the window beforehand to see what the weather’s like.

Maybe you live in a different area than me. Where I live there is very little correlation between how the sky looks at 6AM to how it looks at 5pm

UnitedSocialistStatesofAmerica says

Then may I suggest you look out the window AGAIN @ around 12 pm? After all, THAT’S what a professional meteorologist does right before they flip a coin and prepare the weather forecast anyway

The problem is that I've already left the house. The choice about whether or not to bring the umbrella has to be made at 6AM...

E-man,

I don't comment much here. I like this post of yours and find it very informative. (ignoring much of the bickering and name calling following) Thanks!...from Japan.

Not sure what the property tax environment is in your specific area, but i know my local gov is cash strapped, and i would have to think that property taxes are going to rise, and that will dissuade people from wanting to buy a house

people have certainly come to question just how good an investment house debtorship really is. with the jobs situation being the mess it is, i don't see young people jumping into massive debt to own a house, you have to desire to be anchored to one spot for an extended period of time, and i'd guess people are rethinking if they really want to be chained to a house, when there's plenty of comparable places to rent.

in order to get to the peak we recently witnessed, it absolutely required the pyramiding, or upgrading of houses over a long period of time,,,,,,,,starter home, small family home, bigger family home. Those starter home neighborhoods are not as desirable as they once were, and while the boomers are downsizing, there isn't a new base of families looking to upgrade, especially with the direction of house equity people no longer hold.

Let's not forget the ravenous pace that HELOC's and the like allowed for expansion in housing. How many 'infestors' were able to leverage to the moon with the combination of rising equity and rising credit availability.

i admit, i look to reinforce my own (negative) view of house price direction. that's what i want to happen, so that's what i see and that's what i seek. I think the only way we get this truck out the mud and get back to house prices going higher is via gov't induced monetary inflation, whatever their gimmicktry/vehicle may be. I do not see where incomes will drive house prices upwards. not that i haven't been wrong before

E-man says

Thanks to Troy for over-laying these graphs. As shown on the graph and its trend lines, we’re closer to the bottom than the top of the housing market. If you factor in the current low interest rate environment, home affordability in the U.S. should be at historic high.

Now if you can find charts local for each market, like SF Bay Area, you pretty much wind up with SF Bay Area coming down to mid 300K .. and staying there for a long time. So far we havent hit the perm bottom yet. Otherwise yes, you can more likely find great bargins in Vegas and SoFLA.

rmm221 says

f we were at 9% tomorrow no one would be buying a home.

$375,000 @ 4.5% is around a $2200/mo commitment.

At 9%, it's $2800/mo. $2200 mo @ 9% would require around $100,000 off the purchase price.

BR had a good post today about how interest rates simply must stay low to keep the game going.

Now, we can argue that .4 may be too high a bar, that with these low interest rates we can get by with more leverage, but at any rate the sheer overhang of mortgage debt to present valuations is sobering, and in-line with my previous predictions from 2007-2008.