patrick.net

@Surfer-X,

A weekend road trip to NCAL to Marin Brewing Co./NCAl blog party sounds pretty do-able to me, as long as I get a little advance warning.

something seems fishy

Like sushi?

One thing though, interest for homes has not dropped much. However, the fear of being priced out is no longer there. We are at some sort of temporary equilibrium for now. Or should I say stable disequilibrium?

If HARM and Surfer-X are coming, I will make every effort to join in.

Perhaps we should invite Jack as well. Anyone still remember Jack of Fairfax?

Peter P,

I tried emailing him back before the last blog parties, but never got a response. Too bad, he was one of my favorites from the old-timers.

At least, I think KurtS may also be interested.

"Speaking of fear tactics, could realtors be pointing out to potential buyers that funding is drying up; and that it may again be now or never to get into the market?"

No they tell them there are multiple bidders when in fact there are none.
Fake demand created with phantom bids.

In response to my asking:

Question for experts:

What does it mean when a homes sells and is recorded twice in the same day. Example: 3/1/07-$1,900,000 then 3/1/07-$1,300,000 recorded the same day to the same owner? The home was listed at $1,985,000.

Not sure of the answer to your question, but I have a theory. Could it be that the $1.3M refers to the reconveyance of the prior deed of trust (eg: seller’s lien), which would record at close of escrow, along with the new deed of trust (buyer’s lien)?

Could this also be either a short-sale or a Prop-13 legacy transfer? I'm just very curious because this is the second sale like this in Strawberry I've now observed. I've been watching some of those obscenely overpriced McMansions because it's been my theory that some of the nearly $3m ones are really only worth less than $1.5-1.8m.

The other one I saw, if I recall, was something like a $2.8m re-recorded same day at $2.0m.

Randy H Says:

> Question for experts:
> What does it mean when a homes sells and
> is recorded twice in the same day.

If you give me an address I can often click through and see the scanned recorded documents with my title company access...

Must be the investors because they know what to do to play on the supply/demand stuff.

They think they know. It was never about supply/demand. It was all about reflexivity. Again, The Alchemy of Finance is a very good book to read.

I do not agree with many of Soro's views on politics, but he is still a genius to me.

I have been tracking listings and foreclosures in four zip codes that I am interested in. Since December 2006 listings have waffled plus or minus 5% without an obvious trend line. Foreclosures are slowly and steadily rising about 2-3% over this time period.

So far no crash and no spring bounce. We're just stumbling along...

FAB

Thanks, I'll post an address here shortly. I can't use the one I listed above because I don't want to risk outting my deep-throat at that agency. But I've got an older one from a couple months ago I just need to find...

Randy, how many other "spies" do you handle? :)

Peter P-

Ken Hebner MM for RE funds on CNBC yesterday..
He stated...
Still lots of pain ahead...
Seeing deep price cuts... he spoke about 20% price declines
with more in some areas ( he may be saying 20% nationally??)
ARM resetting $1T (Santa Clara is the highest in nation with ARMs)
Spill over from Subprime to Prime markets (alt-a)...is next

Very Bearish for a RE fund manager.

Altogether.. there are lots of recent delusional buyers in Bay Area ( most are new from other parts of US and international) Im sure they are buying today as well... Im not sure if these people really ever did see a real 1M home. I sure have !!!

SV Earnings ----

Read carefully the tech earnings for Q1 07.. we are already seeing Semi and Telecom hurting.. lower results In April reporting! SubPrime blow up will hurt Advertising on Internet ... Yahoo and Google to be hit... Keep an eye out on this.

We may see cancellations rise once earnings are published. Recent Fed talk did not discount slowdown.

I should have added KH spoke about the next 18 months all this happening. I expect from what I read resetting to start sooner than later in SV.

there are lots of recent delusional buyers in Bay Area

Very true.

Still lots of pain ahead…

Pain is good. :twisted:

Peter P pardon me how did you get that devil face (KB keys??)

RE: devil face

http://codex.wordpress.org/Using_Smilies

FAB:

118 Neider Ln, Mill Valley 94941

Sale History
02/28/2007: $1,200,000
02/28/2007: $1,900,000

Athena I recall first seeing several RE tour in homes that were not listed in MLS many of these were vacant and ready to sell, they remained for a week to two until hitting mls.

Condo fun in Cupertino:

20649 CELESTE CI
Cupertino, CA 95014

Listed for $588k

Sale History
03/29/2005: $572,000

22330 HOMESTEAD RD #00301
Cupertino, CA 95014 (Cupertino)

Listed for $659k

Sale History
01/05/2007: $630,000

Ouch.

Re: lower inventory - I'm seeing the opposite here in L.A.

From my 2+bed, SFR search in Westside L.A and parts of Sth San Fernando Valley - the inventory has gone up from around 1850 properites in Dec 2006 to about 2500 - and most of that happened in the last month. In fact, I noted this over on Ben's blog when I saw it, as about 350 properties came on Zip in 24 hours.

Looking more closely, it appears that many of the 'new' stuff is simply double, triple and sometimes quadruple listings of the same property - guess they reckon that the more times its listed, the easier it will be to sell it.

Most of the really 'new' listings seem to be incredibly expensive estates in Malibu, Beverly Hills etc...all well over 1 million. Seems like all the posh neighbourhoods are for sale now, but certainly not at Bargain Basement prices. Yet.

Or, some Realtor(tm) has hit the wrong button repeatedly, and assigned Townhouses, apartments and condos to the 'Single Family Residence" search, maybe in the hope of fooling someone that the "#' in the address doesn't mean its not a SFR...

And, still, prices are ridicuous. I'm getting more and more frustrated in how unaffordable Los Angeles remains.

BTW - was in San Fransisco a couple of weeks ago for the Game Developers Conference. Did my annual trip to the SF Zoo, and wonder what the neighbourhood around the zoo is called? The MUNI tram runs through it on the way to the Zoo entrance - the place looked lovely, but was interested in just how pricey it is...

Apols - read 'Francisco' for 'Fransisco'.

Illiterate twit.

Some nominal increases in median in some markets as high end props are sold and those in lower end have seen a decline. its easy reallly.

That's what realtors here are publically saying is happening in Marin and which has been going on for months. The county median/average is such a useless statistic.

Bap33, so I guess the new UC is doing nothing special to the Merced housing market? :)

Privatizing schools will take care of many issues. I is idiotic to tie schools to places of residence. This is horrible inefficient.

"cupertino school part of sunnyvale, two houses both
just sold for 10% over asking ($1.16M and $1.253M)."
The school district is call Fremont High School District.
You better look up Bellermine and St Francis HS if you are serious
about real schools who are excellent in education. Presentation is also top notch. I still recall the dopers and deadheads from Sunnyvale and Fremont High.

There is no such thing as a million dollar home in Cupertino.
A few exist near the hills near LAH or St Creek Dam...but thats a few...

That old 1500 sq ft Eckerd homes you see plenty of in Sunnvyale and Cupertino are more worth around 2-300K...Cheaply built real Dumps...If you told someone back in the 80's and 90's they would sell of over $1M many would think your nuts.

Here's a an entertaining craigslist post about a house you're not allowed to look at, let alone bid on, unless you're pre-screened by the selling agent.

Nothing like the advertising trick of saying "Pffft, you're not good enough for our product!" to make people want it all the more.

I bet that hosue is going to be WAY over priced.

"Privatizing schools will take care of many issues. I is idiotic to tie schools to places of residence. This is horrible inefficient."

You mean all that those high high prices that generate higher property tax that would fual better education isnt working. Just like the California Lotto that was created in early 80s dont work either. Dont even mention privatization to a HS teachers, they are all union.

6496 Rainbow Dr,
San Jose, CA 95129
3 beds, 2.0 baths, 1,300 sq ft
For Sale: $918,000

Mark up of 100%...I pity the fool that even thinks its work $450K
A rude awakening for dumb buyer....

03/07/2007: $992,000
12/13/1994: $295,000

---Some nominal increases in median in some markets as high end props are sold and those in lower end have seen a decline. its easy reallly.

That’s what realtors here are publically saying is happening in Marin and which has been going on for months. The county median/average is such a useless statistic.

Shouldn't that mean that while MEAN is increasing MEDIAN should be decreasing? For both to go down then there would need to be fewer low end props selling than high end props.

I have a different read -- both MEAN and MEDIAN are fairly stagnant, and all the movement we see is resultant from a rising standard deviation.

*increasing, 1st word, 2nd line.

If you told someone back in the 80’s and 90’s they would sell of over $1M many would think your nuts.

Well back then they were still making more land and it wasn't special.

There's a mildly good discussion about where prices are heading on this thread:

http://www.yelp.com/topic/rDp0r5MtesBaUfS6ee1TpQ?fsid=V_FHAD7imW4y1K7CCr-51w

a) I do NOT believe a bust will occur in the BA; however, I think a smaller, slower decline of 10-15% over a few years is probable.

Agree? Disagree?

Dorcas,

Way cool chart! Now all we need to do is create a third line on the graph to show subprime lenders going belly up for the "full effect"!

"I pity the fool"

Let's save that for a future thread. Mr. "T" and an FB sharing a cell. Guess who's going to be the "mommy"? I know, I know, that's a visual we could all live without!

eburbed,

I tend to.....disagree. Not only do I feel there will not be a 10-15% correction in the BA, homes will actually continue to appreciate. :)

Randy H Says:

> 118 Neider Ln, Mill Valley 94941
> Sale History
> 02/28/2007: $1,200,000
> 02/28/2007: $1,900,000

The info I show is:

1997: The 3,216 sf 5br 4ba home on a ¼ acre lot was built
10/20/05: $1,725,000 sold to Sirva Relocation, LLC
02/27/07: $1,900,000 sold to Christopher J. Harney & Barbara B. Harney (Sale recorded on 02/28/07 and a first TD of $1.3mm)

I can’t see the actual recorded document in .pdf for this property.

LOL! eburbed said

"Well back then they were still making more land and it wasn’t special."

Actually again, many did say that land was limited back many years/decades. Nothing new.

However, I never heard anyone boast about this area before as we hear today. I often ask, who are these idiots?

Take DinORs, comments...'homes will actually continue'... yea right... Many peoples jobs will be moved elsewhere if this continues.

FAB

Numerous thanks. Does a first TD $amount mean the amount owed to lender or the amount owned by buyer? Should I read this that the guy took a $1.3m loan?

Space_Acer,

Isn't it funny that when money is expensive there's no great sense of urgency to build. Yet when money is cheap WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF LAND! (Oh and every place becomes "more special")