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Latest S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index numbers are out. Charlotte is the only city not declining. Looks like Shiller is doing a victory lap in the press release. DinOR should be happy -- Seattle finally (barely) turned negative and Portland continues to decline.
“The annual declines in the composites are a good indicator of the dire state of the U.S. residential real estate market,†says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. “ The 10-City and 20-city Composites are both showing negative annual returns, a striking difference from the 15.1% and 14.7% returns they reported this time last year. The dismal growth in the 10-City composite is now at rates not seen since January 1994.â€
The decline in the returns of the composites is led by Detroit and Boston, starting their year with annual declines of 6.9% and 5.6%, respectively. Seattle and Portland – having shown some resistance to the sharp downward trend - have reported their second consecutive flat or negative monthly returns. With Phoenix and Tampa now reporting negative annual returns, 11 of the 20 metro areas are now in year-over-year decline.
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If enough mortgage debt doesn't get repaid, many banks may go under. I've been getting out of the stock market and into CD's, but now I'm starting to think there is risk there too. One of my CD's is from IndyMac, which has already taken a hit from the subprime mess.
IndyMac is FDIC insured, but how hard is it to collect from FDIC? Given that it's a government agency, I'm sure it's a real pain.
Then there is the more serious risk that FDIC itself won't be able to make payments if enough banks go under. But there's no need to be paranoid about that, right?
Patrick
#housing