patrick.net

Palo Alto, Cupertino and Sunnyvale are HOT while the rest being slugish

OO,

I think there are two things at play here.

First, this observation jibes with the theory I've proposed here before. During a RE downturn (which we are in the early stages of), the "prime" areas (by whatever metric locals have) stay up for a while. There has been price stabilization even in these prime areas, and potential buyers are likely saying, now that prices have come down a bit, we can look in Cupertino instead of having to look in East San Jose. This in fact props up demand in these areas, even as the less prime areas continue to fall. As the flood waters rise, people run for higher ground. However, if the waters rise high enough, everyone still drowns (or at least has to tread water for a while)...

Second, take a look at the photo gallery accompaning the article. I hate to stereotype, but every single human in the photos is of the South Bay immigrant demographic. These folks (a) still have the means to buy (I'd venture there's a lower rate of subprime lending in this demographic) and (b) I'd venture have no clue about any bubble.

I'd say, let them buy - who cares. Continued demand at this stage in the cycle only leads to a more rapid fall once the inflection point has turned.

CB

That house is deep into Sunnyvale, not even at the border with Cupertino that can go to Cupertino schools. The lot is below 8000 sqft. The bidders lost their mind.

The interior is just IKEA, you can fit out such a kitchen for less than $20K, the bathroom costs even less. Even if you want to pay the market price, you can easily find a home below $800s with comparable location and lot, and spend less than $100K to bring to the same look.

Dear MSNBC,

I too was a victim of those nasty mortgage lenders.

One day, I was walking home to my pathetic rental, when I was approached by a man who only identified himself as Mr. Subprime, who I later found out was a dodgy mortgage broker. Though he was dressed a little strangely (black overcoat, stovepipe hat and handle-bar mustache he was constantly twisting), he seemed harmless enough at the time.

He said, "Psst... hey, kid, wanna buy a house?". The next thing I knew, I was in his office he was showing me all kinds of glossy picture of granite countertops, faux-French turrets and happy looking people holding rakes. He explained how all this could be mine, with the help of something called “leverage”. Being unemployed and broke and all, I was a little skeptical, but he assured me “it’s a no brainer” and there was nothing to worry about, ‘cause “it only goes up”.

Before I knew what happened, he had his hand in my pants (grabbing my wallet) and was drawing up a bunch of confusing looking documents. I didn't understand any of it, but he assured me he'd fit me into a monthly payment I could handle, and even promised me lots of cash back at closing! Of course, I didn't want to offend the nice man by asking lots of silly questions –and what he was telling me sounded like a really sweet deal, so I went ahead and signed!

Well, everything started out great, just like Mr. Subprime said it would. I took lots of cruises and vacations and bought matching Lexus’s for me & the Mrs. It was great not "throwing away money on rent" anymore! I felt really smart and superior around my pathetic friends who still rented. When the Mrs. wanted a boob job, Mr. Subprime even helped us liberate more of our equity with something called a "HELOC". It was awesome! Later on, Mr. Subprime even hooked us up with several “investment” properties in Las Vegas and Miami. I was well on my way to becoming the next Donald Trump –and my wife and I didn’t even have a job or penny of savings between us!

Then about a year later, something strange happened: the monthly payments on my twelve mortgages suddenly jumped from $300 to $65,000! So I called Mr. Subprime, demanding some answers. Apparently, hadn’t been up front with me about a few things, like this stuff called “negative amortization”, “adjustable rate-reset” and a bunch of other financial gobbledygook. He had also inflated my income on the loan docs, from zero to $3 million a year.

Well, naturally, I was more than a little miffed about that, and I told him so. He just laughed at me and hung up –can you believe that?! I don’t understand how someone like this can even be allowed to run a business! Well, I went ahead and reported him to the state attorney general, but later found out his company had gone out of business and Mr. Subprime was nowhere to be found. Evidently, “Mr. Subprime” wasn’t even his real name, and he had skipped town to some place called the “Cayman Islands”.

Imagine the shock and sadness I felt when I found out I’d been had! Now I was facing 12 foreclosures and was completely out of money. Plus, my wife’s boob job was botched (we asked for Ds, but they gave her GGGs!), and she was badly in need of some corrective surgery, as well as some back surgery (thanks to the strain those implants were causing on her spine). To make matters worse, we couldn’t afford gas for our Lexus’s and were forced to start eating at home!

Anyway, Mr. Subprime turned my American Dream into a total nightmare! I hope by sharing my story, I can help other people avoid creeps like him and not end up in my situation. I think the government definitely needs to get involved and prevent the banks from stealing other people’s houses (they pretend it’s not stealing by calling it “foreclosure”)! They’re mine, dammit --I signed for them! I dunno, maybe the government could take some money away from people who have too much –like all my renter friends-- and use it to pay off my 12 mortgages. Anything, as long as I don’t have to go back to renting again (*shudder*).

Anyway, thanks for providing me some space to vent, MSNBC –and keep up the good work!

Sincerely,
Ben Dover

# of households making between $50-200K shrunk.

The strategy: so homes up to 800K (4x income) may not do so well?

the bathroom costs even less

But it can also cost a lot. ;)

skibum,

I think these immigrants are aware of the bubble, just that they have no intuition of how bad things can go. I heard repetitively from FOBs or friends outside the US saying, things cannot be possibly worse than 911, the stock market, housing market cannot possibly crash harder than 911.

They use 911 as the yardstick. They thought that was the CRASH, and we are past the bottom. They don't know that we have never crashed, the crash was delayed by a few more rounds of liquidity injection, and when we do crash, we need to look at 1929 as the yardstick.

Well, let them buy, once they exhaust their savings, there will be even fewer competitors for us when this time bomb really goes off. I know there won't be enough of us to go around to stir up a bidding war by then.

Even if you want to pay the market price, you can easily find a home below $800s with comparable location and lot, and spend less than $100K to bring to the same look.

The vast, vast majority of people want homes in move-in condition. It is more unusual in my observation to find a buyer who wants a place to fix up (I'm in that category). I think that's part of the reason why (a) new homes are as popular as they are - despite their often shoddier construction, and (b) pergraniteel-coated, staged homes are so pervasive. Don't underestimate people's laziness - both in wanting to undertake renovations and in lack of imagination in taking a raw space and personalizing it.

Well, let them buy, once they exhaust their savings, there will be even fewer competitors for us when this time bomb really goes off. I know there won’t be enough of us to go around to stir up a bidding war by then.

Absolutely!

Well, let them buy, once they exhaust their savings, there will be even fewer competitors for us when this time bomb really goes off. I know there won’t be enough of us to go around to stir up a bidding war by then.

The problem with the FOB crowd is that they're really industrious and that they have lower standards of living than us Real Americans.

I for one would never think of going to Costco on Sunday to get a lunch of free samples.

Maybe I'm the one with a problem I guess. :(

we need to look at 1929 as the yardstick.

1929 was not too bad. The tulipomania was probably worse. Some tulip bulbs were selling for more than entire estates. The rest was history.

Did the market crash after 9/11?

Don’t underestimate people’s laziness - both in wanting to undertake renovations and in lack of imagination in taking a raw space and personalizing it.

I'm unbelievably unhandy. The extent of my home repair skill is using Drano.

Is it cheaper to buy a cruddier home and pay to remodel it up? I've heard that remodels/contractors are uber expensive.

I for one would never think of going to Costco on Sunday to get a lunch of free samples.

I never think of going to Costco on weekends. A weekday noon is much better.

""What we're seeing now is that the problems with the Silicon Valley model are not just cyclical and short-term - there are some fundamental flaws," said Bob Brownstein, policy and research director for Working Partnerships. "More and more, the regional economy is simply producing too few quality jobs for the middle class to be able to survive and prosper in Silicon Valley"

Nothing new for us old timers! It cracks me up when people ask these questions or or Reports print these comments. Had you simple asked a group of CEOs, they will gladly tell you... Its too expensive and alternatives are cheaper... But the newspapers dont want to publish anything like that.

So Mr Larry Ellison (CEO of Oracle) what will Silicon Valley Look Like ?

"More like Detroit!" was his answer! Live and learn if your crazy enough to buy into this hyped market. If prices go down I will buy! But they have to come down really far.

eburbed, many immigrants still want kids, which are very expensive to maintain. The NPV of a kid starts in low 300's. Get two and get no discount.

Great story HARM,

They did find Mr.Subprime and this is what he had to say.

I for one would never think of going to Costco on Sunday to get a lunch of free samples.

LOL! You are so right on that one. I split between the RWC and MV Costcos and the difference is stark. In RWC, the sample ladies are pushing, and few are biting. In MV, there's a crowd of FOBs surrounding each sample lady heating their morsels of partially hydrogenated goodness and handing them out in those little white paper cup/bowl things or whatever they are.

So Mr Larry Ellison (CEO of Oracle) what will Silicon Valley Look Like ?

If he is so smart why is he poorer than Bill Gates? ;)

If he is so smart why is he poorer than Bill Gates?

But Ellison is the perfect embodiment of a Zen rage-a-holic a$$hole! He is the poster child for the Silly Valley CEO.

He is the poster child for the Silly Valley CEO.

Then I must leave.

CB,

Unless that house was overpriced when it was purchased in 2000, the price isn't out of wack given the 3 - 5% rule.

I must contest the idea that only FOBs going to Costco getting free lunch since I’m a FOB who never gets sample from Costco.

Sorry to nitpick, but that's a logical fallacy. Only FOBs getting free samples does not = ALL FOBs get free samples. You are outside the Venn diagram circle of intersection between FOBs and free-sample-getters.

My theory is that when things are free, it usually attracts a locusts of people fear of missing out. I go to Tahoe a lot and on a few occasions stay at the Embassy Suites right on Hwy 50, you should see the breakfast line (it’s “free” with the room), they often have to shut it down early because people think they were getting free breakfast, lots of real Americans there trying to stuff their face with water down scrambled eggs and sausages

LOL. I say let 'em wait in line all they want. Meanwhile, I'll be on the first chair up on a powder day! Yeah!

I am on the same page with skibum , I want to build my next home from ground up, and if I cannot find the right piece of land, I would rather buy a very very run-down home on a prime spot so that I get to see the house "as is".

Having seen the Property Ladder shows and real-life examples of irresponsible owners who hastily putlipstick on their rotten home for sale, I don't want any of those stupid graniteel, Better-Home look for my personal space. Why should I cope with someone else' taste for the most expensive consumption item in my life?

OO,

Definitely. It's scary watching shows like "Flip This House" where you hear the "flipper" saying things like - "let's just slap on the paint coat to cover that spot of black mold," or granite TILES are way cheaper than cut granite countertops, so let's go with the tiles," or anything along the lines of, "I'm hoping to stay under a budget of $XXX, so forget the this-or-that needed repair.

The funniest one of these I saw was a newbie flipper in SoCal who adamantly wanted to make a "Green" flip and had all these grand plans for bamboo floors, solar panels, recycled tiles, etc. Once she started doing the flip and she found out how much each of these things cost above standard stuff, she nixed everything one by one! She even had the gall at the end to say she stayed "Green" by not wasting too much crap!

Peter P,

that's precisely the reason immigrants target areas with good school districts. Going to public school saves a LOT. Can you imagine sending two kids through private schools at $30K each after tax? That is a big ouch.

I have a confession to make. I used to line up at Costco for free food samples, with the hope of making it a meal.

The reason why I stopped doing so was because the line got longer and longer and there were far more vultures waiting at the stall before the food even came out. So I figured that I needed to spend 3-5 minutes per morceau which is not really worth my time, and after circling different food stalls for half an hour, I may still be left only a quarter full. If I spend that half hour working on something more productive, I can make more than a free lunch.

And ultimately, I just stop going to Costco because I can't find enough things to buy there to recoup my membership cost. I just tag along with my in-laws when they buy toilet paper and washing powder, which is all I need from Costco. I shop from Trader Joe's for the rest. Trader Joe's is more like a community shop, so I feel obligated to buy when I take a free sample. Therefore, I try not to descend on the food display if I don't intend to buy.

Yep, I am talking about Harker.

allah,

These days overpriced is hard to define, I’ll give you an example, my in-laws’ house in the same neighborhood was purchased new from the builder for around 450K in 1994 or 1995 (bottom of the real estate cycle), it’s worth around 1.2 million or maybe more at this time. So that million dollar house is maybe 300K tops 10 or 12 years ago.

Who knows, maybe the toilet bowl is made of solid gold!

Who knows, maybe the toilet bowl is made of solid gold!

Now THAT'S what I call sitting on your equity!

Look at these posts, obviously made by the same person in Flushing Queens, namely the realtor "wendy kelly" just to try to drum up business.

He just took in $6.00!

Great we can get a list of the people who donate and they can do the bailout!

"If he is so smart why is he poorer than Bill Gates?"

Well so far old Larry put the employees of Siebel, Peoplesoft, and now Hyperion out of a job. Yes I dare say some that were making 160K are
not going to make that salary anymore. Back to the bottom for those
folks.

Yes, Larry is doing were well indeed.

Ha Ha writes,

"160K/year is a VERY ORDINARY salary in Bay Area ….."

As someone who knows what people make, because I see salary data,
I can put a persons face to their salary very easily. Many in Finance have this kind of access.

First off, Company Officers ( CEO, COO CFO VPS) may make 160K.
But thats limited to 5 or so people per company out of 100-500

Engineers with 15-20 years of exp. may approch that but cap out
and dont go beyond rate of inflation. Its too expensive. Again thats
limited based on budgets/profitability. Very limed again maybe 15-20%.

Sales people will get 100K base and rest commissions another 15-20%
of people. They dont make quotas they dont got a job in 6 months.

That leaves you all the rest which are around med. 85K or so.

When salaries get to this level you can bet your pretty dollar management is looking at cost cutting. This is no secret for many in finance department.

Before we talk about 160K in salary is common. I suggest you look around your company and figure who makes what. Dont throw numbers out like everyone drives BMW in Silicon Valley. We all see many drive Toyotas.

"I am a manager"

How common that everyone is a manager?

160k is a very common family salary, but it is an uncommon salary for an individual. At most 10% make that, even in the land of Milk and Honey.

Fortress Sunnyvale update

This one takes the cake, the house just closed in March. It's got good schools but look at the price.

Type: Detached Single Family
Status: Sold
List Date: 02/21/07
Sale Price: $1,168,000
Sale Date: 03/07/07
Location: 1125 POME AV, Sunnyvale, CA 94087 (map)
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Approx. Sq. Ft.: 1772
Approx. Lot Size: 7,840sf
Approx age: 44
MLS#: 708446

For a software engineer, 5 years out of school with a MS from a good school can garner 110K easy, I'm not debating the longevity or quality of such jobs, just what the job market is like these days.

For a software engineer, 5 years out of school with a MS from a good school can garner 110K easy, I’m not debating the longevity or quality of such jobs, just what the job market is like these days.

And, if that person joined Apple, he'd have options at a great price. I know someone who just retired after 12 years there.

:(

I know someone who just retired after 12 years there.
So what, someone in my undergrad class is on the Forbes billionaire list (I think his Stanford MBA had a little to do with his success), who's to say you won't retire comfortably in 10 years?

"And, if that person joined Apple, he’d have options at a great price. I know someone who just retired after 12 years there."

Oh yea... so now the additional expense to earnings "cheap stock expense" by apple from strike price to market price is considered compensation by the Apple and hits their earnings. If your a shareholder you would not be to happy.

If say Google was offered shares a 100 and employee excercises at 500
the difference of is additional expense to Google and will reduce net income.
Are you as a shareholder happier?

Not good news if your a start up trying to make a profit.

LOL lets face it typical employee lasts 2-3 years at one place. Are we forgetting the politics and cut throat carp that goes on. Thank god I dont have to brown nose some idiot boss.

Well, salary is salary. If one needs to rely on a wage (especially those who need to rely on 2 wages to buy a million-dollar-shack) to pay the mortgage, feed the kids, he is after all a working class, regardless of how much he makes. That is my interpretation.

One doesn't graduate from the working class and become financially independent until he
1) has a fully-paid off house
2) has an account that can generate a guaranteed annual return that can cover his property tax for 50 years
3) has another account that even when invested very conservatively can generate enough after-tax living cost at whatever lifestyle he chooses for another 50 years

Expenses for 2) and 3) cannot eat into the principal, because once you dip into the principal, then it becomes a very slippery slope.

Before we reach such a stage, the extra $50K or $70K before-tax pay makes little difference. We are all, as the Japanese call it, SALARYMAN.