patrick.net

"Can someone tell me why it is so adverse to changes (e.g. redevelopment, demolition, etc)? I thought liberals are supposed to be open-minded. "

OH Lord.. have you even been there??? There is more development there than any time before. Take a long look next to the ball park... you will more homes being built.

Before Winblow$ we had Mac OS and Geoworks… Far far better!

How so? Windows enjoyed a huge market share. Its phenomenal market penetration allowed the rapid development of the silly valley.

"See, creative destruction."

Actually see Toshiba Samsung ( Asian Tigers) due to highly educated and cheap labor froce back in 1985-90. Bills Gates had nothing to do with it.

Bill Gates runs the biggest Monoply in the world.

theotherside

You can keep repeating that half-math over and over all you wish. I still await your systematic, quantitative disproof or criticism of my publicly published model. You promised that over 6 months ago now. Thus my "vitriol". At this point you're just Trolling. I've taken the time to disprove your calculations in past threads, in excruciating detail. In the end you were shown to be relying upon hidden, unrealistic assumptions about continued perpetual out-of-band housing price growth.

By your own assumptions 23 threads ago, housing will constitute 99.9% of all world GDP by 2050. Wow.

Here's the gauntlet. I'll take you seriously as soon as you:

a) Reveal your identity or at least enough to establish credibility. You know who I am. Even anonymous people like FAB and DinOR have revealed enough to establish credible identity. Short of that you could be some investment banker's desperate adolescent teenage daughter going through some attention spasm for all I know.

b) Give & take. When I respond to your detailed calculations with similarly detailed responses don't just repeat yourself again half a dozen threads later. You know, we had another Troll who kept showing the same Marina property which sold for like $250K over asking for nearly a year as evidence there was no bubble.

c) When you agree to take up a challenge, do it. What's wrong with my model? Half a year ago you chuffed it aside as obviously flawed, and easily debunked. Forgive my incredulity, but *show me or STFU*.

"How so? Windows enjoyed a huge market share. Its phenomenal market penetration allowed the rapid development of the silly valley."

If you dont know about these things Im not going to rewite the history of MSFT monoplitic practice over the past decades. Do you expect that! LOL Silly Boy! You must be really young!!!

"Err… perhaps because not enough people moved in to oppose new projects yet?"

OK you wasted enough of my time... I see your an idiot!!!!

Perhaps SFWoman can shred some light on the subject.

Randy H,

TIME OUT! TIME OUT!

O.K, let's settle this once and for all! "theotherside" can be become "The Minister of Finance" over at Second Life and live happily ever after! (in fantasyland). :)

Randy, you are wasting time. Can't we have some sushi? :)

If you dont know about these things Im not going to rewite the history of MSFT monoplitic practice over the past decades. Do you expect that!

Still. It is hard to image what would have happened without DOS and Windows. Technically superior products are useless if they do not sell.

You must be really young!!!

I wish.

Peter P-

skibum is correct, my confusion lies in the long term expectation for inflation beating performance in RE. It takes skilled intervention to manage any asset portfolio to outperform inflation, an area I fully admit my own woeful incompetence. But RE seems to exist outside this realm, at least in many otherwise well educated minds. As I see it that's the only rational basis for a huge chunk of the mortgage industry and the "climbing the RE ladder" mentality.

As I see it that’s the only rational basis for a huge chunk of the mortgage industry and the “climbing the RE ladder” mentality.

Also, until recently, homes are long-term assets. People were able to visualize the absolute appreciation of their homes. They can see huge gains in home equity with apparently no work.

Although we’ve kidded about picking up everything from Harley’s to jet skis on ebay I don’t believe this will lessen the demand for “new goods” much at all. These are “tainted goods”. Bought with “free money” and neglected almost as much as the shoddy homes that originally “facilitated” their purchase.

The people (real financial heros) that have been buying up consumer goods with the "free money" are the people who mostly make up the people buying the "new goods"; Thus driving the economy. Now that the "free money" is no longer there and many of these people are going to try to resell those "Equity Distressed Assets" (EDA's as I call them) to help them through their financial bind. Just the fact that they are no longer buying new stuff because of their situation is already lessening demand for the "new goods"; In addition to that, many people who are not in financial distress (aka. renters), may want to get some of those EDA's for half of what they would cost brand new (Depending on like you say, what shape they are in); Further reducing the demand for "new goods".

Speaking of Harley's, according to Roubini, many hogs have been purchased with subprime loans that are also going bad, I would imagine the same would be true for jetski's and such; You don't have to be a homedebtor to be a FB.

Refering to Patricks link, I wouldn't buy the piano. :lol:

Who was it that once described a home as "a high maint. long term depreciating asset off-set only by it's utility function"? :)

But… Peter P will be dabbling in owning a chain of sushi bars and astrid will manage an interplanetary seed exchange.

I like that future! :)

allah,

Spot on! In addition to the normal depreciation inflicted by the simple act of driving it off the showroom floor we need to calculate FB's burn rate to foreclosure, decline in median for your ZIP, absorbing "the glut" in the market for Harleys and then factor in neglect on top of normal wear and tear!

Meaning I can (generously) "give" you a two months reprieve on your mortgage OR 5K (whichever is the lesser). :)

Space_Acer,

We love ya' like a brother but in truth... we just don't get that emotional about software here. Well, I don't intend to speak for others so if you like getting emotional about it? Don't let ME stop you.

Space_Acer Says:

Had we not had a “Computer Revolution” back in the 1980s in SV (Silicon Valley) I doubt we would even be talking about this. We would still be sitting in a orchard field which is a low margin business and seen land prices been flat since 1950s. There would be no demand for land here … there was no reason…
_____

How about the weather? Good weather would have boosted prices a bit.

How about the Great Pumpking patches off Santa Teresa Blvd., where the Great Pumpkin would appear to Charlie Brown every year?

What about all the great punkin pie you could 'uv made? & the Porkypines and Hamsters roaming around the foothills & stuff & junk & what not?

It is fine to be emotional about software. It is also fine to call me an idiot. I am not emotional about it. :)

:)

Just frustrates me, because folks like tOs drop late into every 3rd thread and spit out the same crap over and over. But it's well formed enough so that, if taken in isolation, it sure sounds credible to any new readers.

Maybe we need one of those "click on the name and see all their previous comments" functions here. Want to see tOs' cut & paste calculations, then looky here!

Ah well. Send 'er off to cartoon real estate land. I hear there's a huge bubble in progress there.

www.bonds.is (OT)

(Check out THAT yield!)

There are bigger fish to fry.

Can we grill the fish instead? I heard it is more heart-healthy.

(Check out THAT yield!)

WTF!? A slippery slope yield curve?

"click on the name and see all their previous comments"

Now THAT would be a waste of perfectly good technology!

Peter P,

I should have added:

NIA :)

newsfreak,

If you were to click on the Central Bank Policy Rates link you'd see that from JAN '05 to today their (Icelandic) short term rate has gone from 8.25% to 14.25%. Most folks would consider that downright slick.

I work in retail at the moment,
and I luvvvv capitalism,
that place where the consumer and the product intersect
and there is a sale,
a happy face.

I agree with you.

Peter P Says:

> SF is a self-proclaimed liberal city. Can someone tell
> me why it is so adverse to changes (e.g. redevelopment,
> demolition, etc)? I thought liberals are supposed to
> be open-minded.

Liberals only like some kind of change for example they would support the demolition of a big single family home to build a homeless shelter (with bonus points if a white family lived in the home and the shelter was financed with a tax on homes in the city over 5,000 sf and double bonus points if all the homeless people were gay minority drug addicts with AIDS).

Liberals would not support the demolition of a drug and gang infested housing project by a for profit developer who agreed to house the same number of people in a nice new development that would be built without a penny of public money (if the city would give developers density bonuses they could house double the number of people we have in public housing today for free that would be financed by the rent and sale of market rate units on the sites).

FAB, you are very insightful.

the market is more difficult to understand when it comes to labor and wages.

This is because of asymmetric information. We can empower ourselves by knowing more.

DinOR Says:

> Who was it that once described a home as
> “a high maint. long term depreciating asset off-
> set only by it’s utility function”?

Last time I remember us talking about “high maint. long term depreciating assets” was when SFWoman was explaining what a “Bowling Trophy Wife” was…

We should all live on fenceposts like birds.

I can fly!

"SFWoman was explaining what a "Bowling Trophy" Wife was..." LOL!

Now that you mention it, the outcomes of both seem inevitable!

I guess the big difference is the BTW doesn't come complete with a mortgage int. deduction. :(

DinOR,

How about those Harley EDA's?

They don't look in too bad condition either; Just have to wait for the prices to drop some more.

Ooops! The Link

Holiday Asked...
"How about the weather? Good weather would have boosted prices a bit."

For a peach! sure it would. We had great weather in the central valley for decades, prices were still down. I sure didnt see any inflation above med prices 2-3x med income.

SocketSite has a forum. Low volume so far but could be interesting place to monitor exchanges among prospective BA buyers & sellers.

http:/s.socketsite.com/index.php

Motorcycles get 50 miles/ gal.

Perhaps we should be Wild Housing Hogs.

Bicycles get even more. :)

OFFTOPIC: I posted a comment a while ago and now I look and it says "Awaiting moderation". Why? I sporadically comment here and have always been nice. Never insulting. Never trolling. You can look at all my previous comments.

I don't understand.

SG, did your post contain two or more links? Did it contain one of the banned words like "sociali$m" (I believe it is "ciali$" that we wanted to block)?