0
0

September 12, 2037


 invite response                
2007 Apr 3, 5:37am   23,738 views  333 comments

by e   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,915445,00.html

Unleashing their pent-up demands and taking advantage of fairly easy mortgage money, millions of people are shopping for houses. In Santa Rosa, Calif., a 90-minute commute north of San Francisco, buyers in June began camping out in sleeping bags on a Thursday night to be first in line Saturday morning when 27 houses in a new subdevelopment went on sale. In the Kendall neighborhood of southwestern Dade County, the last open area reasonably close to Miami, prospective buyers on weekends parade caravan-like in cars and campers through flag-festooned developments.

Sound familiar? Yet another story from 2005? Nope... the publication date of this article was September 12, 1977 - nearly 30 years ago.

Let's look at some other snippets from this time capsule:

Rachelle Resnick, 27, a San Francisco school-bus driver, counts herself fortunate to have bought—with much help from her father—a two-bedroom house that she candidly describes as "a little nothing." It cost $48,500, and she will have to spend $5,000 or so to repair termite damage. But had she waited, it almost surely would have gone higher. The house sold in June 1976 for $28,000, and has since been resold four times by four separate speculators, none of whom lived in it.

Such speculation is common in California and is beginning to appear in other states. Indeed, California is a housing Oz unto itself; its population is still growing faster than that of any other large state except Texas; the recession bit especially deep in California, creating a huge backlog of demand, and strict environmental requirements severely limit the land available for housing. Prices are starting to level off, but the level is in the stratosphere. In platinum-plated Beverly Hills, one cynical real estate broker exclaims: "Oh, I have such a dog on the market right now! Come to my Sunday open house and see what I'm offering for $185,000. I can tell you, for $185,000 you get a piece of nothing." Tom Lorch, a high school principal who is looking for a house in San Francisco, adds, "When we talk about houses, it's money, money, money—not how we're going to live, which seems wrong. And these absurd numbers, $100,000. It's some kind of fantasy world."

Does anyone know what happened to the housing market in California after 1977? Or was the impact of Prop 13 too influential in the resulting statistics?

And finally, the social impact:

Like all inflations, housing inflation has serious social effects. Some wives feel forced to go to work, not because they want to have careers or earn their own spending money, but because buying that dream house nowadays usually requires two incomes. Six out often first-time buyers are families in which both husband and wife hold jobs. Couples who want to have children sometimes face the brutal choice of a house or a child—and, more often than in past years, select the house. In the early postwar period, sociologists and merchants suggested that Americans spent too little on shelter, too much on less basic needs. If so, the market has more than corrected that tendency. In order to buy a house, couples are scrimping drastically on other spending—for cars, food and even furniture; not a few fancy new houses are almost bare inside. Young people have always asked parents for help in scraping up the down payment on a home; mortgage bankers call the payoff from papa a "gift letter." Now the pool of cash required to spend the first night in a new house—frequently $20,000 to $30,000—has made this sacrifice of independence a matter of necessity rather than choice.

So... this was in 9/1977. Now, it's hard enough predicting what 9/2007 will be like - but what do you think September 12, 2037 will be like?

Already, both parents are working, realtors are spinning the Bay Area as a place so great that you don't need to take vacations - what's next? Will child labor make a come back? ("Monta Vista High School and Fireworks Factory #88"?) How much more special can it get here?

(Bonus points for including Peak Oil in your prediction...)

#housing

« First        Comments 148 - 187 of 333       Last »     Search these comments

148   DinOR   2007 Apr 4, 5:37am  

Space_Acer,

We love ya' like a brother but in truth... we just don't get that emotional about software here. Well, I don't intend to speak for others so if you like getting emotional about it? Don't let ME stop you.

149   Michael Holliday   2007 Apr 4, 5:37am  

Space_Acer Says:

Had we not had a “Computer Revolution” back in the 1980s in SV (Silicon Valley) I doubt we would even be talking about this. We would still be sitting in a orchard field which is a low margin business and seen land prices been flat since 1950s. There would be no demand for land here … there was no reason…
_____

How about the weather? Good weather would have boosted prices a bit.

How about the Great Pumpking patches off Santa Teresa Blvd., where the Great Pumpkin would appear to Charlie Brown every year?

What about all the great punkin pie you could 'uv made? & the Porkypines and Hamsters roaming around the foothills & stuff & junk & what not?

150   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 5:41am  

It is fine to be emotional about software. It is also fine to call me an idiot. I am not emotional about it. :)

151   Randy H   2007 Apr 4, 5:42am  

:)

Just frustrates me, because folks like tOs drop late into every 3rd thread and spit out the same crap over and over. But it's well formed enough so that, if taken in isolation, it sure sounds credible to any new readers.

Maybe we need one of those "click on the name and see all their previous comments" functions here. Want to see tOs' cut & paste calculations, then looky here!

Ah well. Send 'er off to cartoon real estate land. I hear there's a huge bubble in progress there.

152   DinOR   2007 Apr 4, 5:47am  

www.bonds.is (OT)

(Check out THAT yield!)

153   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 5:47am  

There are bigger fish to fry.

Can we grill the fish instead? I heard it is more heart-healthy.

154   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 5:48am  

(Check out THAT yield!)

WTF!? A slippery slope yield curve?

155   DinOR   2007 Apr 4, 5:49am  

"click on the name and see all their previous comments"

Now THAT would be a waste of perfectly good technology!

156   DinOR   2007 Apr 4, 5:50am  

Peter P,

I should have added:

NIA :)

157   DinOR   2007 Apr 4, 6:03am  

newsfreak,

If you were to click on the Central Bank Policy Rates link you'd see that from JAN '05 to today their (Icelandic) short term rate has gone from 8.25% to 14.25%. Most folks would consider that downright slick.

158   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 6:09am  

I work in retail at the moment,
and I luvvvv capitalism,
that place where the consumer and the product intersect
and there is a sale,
a happy face.

I agree with you.

159   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 4, 6:11am  

Peter P Says:

> SF is a self-proclaimed liberal city. Can someone tell
> me why it is so adverse to changes (e.g. redevelopment,
> demolition, etc)? I thought liberals are supposed to
> be open-minded.

Liberals only like some kind of change for example they would support the demolition of a big single family home to build a homeless shelter (with bonus points if a white family lived in the home and the shelter was financed with a tax on homes in the city over 5,000 sf and double bonus points if all the homeless people were gay minority drug addicts with AIDS).

Liberals would not support the demolition of a drug and gang infested housing project by a for profit developer who agreed to house the same number of people in a nice new development that would be built without a penny of public money (if the city would give developers density bonuses they could house double the number of people we have in public housing today for free that would be financed by the rent and sale of market rate units on the sites).

160   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 6:12am  

FAB, you are very insightful.

161   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 6:13am  

the market is more difficult to understand when it comes to labor and wages.

This is because of asymmetric information. We can empower ourselves by knowing more.

162   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 4, 6:16am  

DinOR Says:

> Who was it that once described a home as
> “a high maint. long term depreciating asset off-
> set only by it’s utility function”?

Last time I remember us talking about “high maint. long term depreciating assets” was when SFWoman was explaining what a “Bowling Trophy Wife” was…

163   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 6:17am  

We should all live on fenceposts like birds.

I can fly!

164   DinOR   2007 Apr 4, 6:24am  

"SFWoman was explaining what a "Bowling Trophy" Wife was..." LOL!

Now that you mention it, the outcomes of both seem inevitable!

I guess the big difference is the BTW doesn't come complete with a mortgage int. deduction. :(

165   Allah   2007 Apr 4, 6:31am  

DinOR,

How about those Harley EDA's?

They don't look in too bad condition either; Just have to wait for the prices to drop some more.

166   Allah   2007 Apr 4, 6:32am  

Ooops! The Link

167   DaBoss   2007 Apr 4, 6:35am  

Holiday Asked...
"How about the weather? Good weather would have boosted prices a bit."

For a peach! sure it would. We had great weather in the central valley for decades, prices were still down. I sure didnt see any inflation above med prices 2-3x med income.

168   PAR   2007 Apr 4, 6:35am  

SocketSite has a forum. Low volume so far but could be interesting place to monitor exchanges among prospective BA buyers & sellers.

http:/s.socketsite.com/index.php

169   Allah   2007 Apr 4, 6:36am  

Motorcycles get 50 miles/ gal.

Perhaps we should be Wild Housing Hogs.

Bicycles get even more. :)

170   GammaRaze   2007 Apr 4, 6:42am  

OFFTOPIC: I posted a comment a while ago and now I look and it says "Awaiting moderation". Why? I sporadically comment here and have always been nice. Never insulting. Never trolling. You can look at all my previous comments.

I don't understand.

171   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 6:52am  

SG, did your post contain two or more links? Did it contain one of the banned words like "sociali$m" (I believe it is "ciali$" that we wanted to block)?

172   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 4, 7:08am  

theotherside Says:

> How much do you think that that house bought in
> 1977 for $53,500 would cost today in 2007?

Depends on where it is:

Woodside: $4mm

Burlingame: $1.8mm

Orlando: $425K

Cleveland: $125K

173   DinOR   2007 Apr 4, 7:14am  

allah,

Leave it to Mr. Roubini to create the "Harley Index"! Man... that is a lot of chrome up for auction ain't it?

174   FormerAptBroker   2007 Apr 4, 7:18am  

allah Says:

> DinOR, How about those Harley EDA’s?

Harley has some tough times ahead as their target market (Low IQ Boomers, and Closeted Homo Boomers) gets older and stops paying top dollar for the pile of crap noise makers that Harley calls motorcycles…

175   HeadSet   2007 Apr 4, 7:20am  

"Still. It is hard to image what would have happened without DOS and Windows. Technically superior products are useless if they do not sell."

Absolutely. Look what happened to the Amiga 2000, which had 4096 colors and multi-tasking while Mac was was still a black&white single tasker. The English really porked the marketing on this marvel by deliberately making it harder for 3rd party add ons (like Video Toaster).

Microsoft compares to the Model T Ford. Not the best car by any means, but the one that put America on wheels.

176   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 7:21am  

Microsoft compares to the Model T Ford. Not the best car by any means, but the one that put America on wheels.

And in this case, Microsoft puts a computer on every desktop. Bravo!

177   Jimbo   2007 Apr 4, 7:24am  

SF is a self-proclaimed liberal city. Can someone tell me why it is so adverse to changes (e.g. redevelopment, demolition, etc)? I thought liberals are supposed to be open-minded.

Most people who live here like San Francisco just fine the way she is and are adverse to changing what works very well for most of us. Compound that with the very democratic decision making process and you have the recipe for slow decision making.

The truth is that San Francisco has build 25,000 new units in the last decade, more than all of Marin county and more proportionally than any city on The Peninsula. SOMA has changed dramatically in the last decade and China Basin even more so. I literally did not realize where I was exactly the last time I was there, and I used to work in that neighborhood.

Sorry, you are going to have to find another straw man to beat up on.

I think FAB is wrong in his characterization of what "liberals" in San Francisco are like. But what he would probably call a liberal, I would call part of the far left. People like Chris Daly are hardly liberal. Even they would deny it. I have a bunch of friends who consider the word liberal an insult to hurl at people like me who are "appeasionist" to capitalism.

And even Chris Daly has championed plans to allow developers to increase their density requirements and reduce their parking requirements, both of which increase developer profits, in return for increasing the amount of housing required to be built as low income.

178   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 7:45am  

And Space was correct it was Garry Kindall who first made the first DOS and not Bill Gates.

True. But who made money out of it?

179   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 7:48am  

in return for increasing the amount of housing required to be built as low income.

In a free market there are no requirements for density, parking, and low-income housing. The market sorts itself out.

The very need to have BMR housing units is suspicious enough.

180   Jimbo   2007 Apr 4, 7:50am  

Oh, my prediction for what the Bay Area is like in 2037:

I think 10M people will live in the area, up from 7M today, but the roads will be much less congested because gasoline will be $20/gallon. Most people will commute in little electric smart carts that will drive them around and allow much faster and easier transportation. When they get to their destination, they will park their carts and either walk or take bicycles.

Homes will average $3M in San Francisco, but the overall cost of ownership will be less, since interest rates will be 3% and inflation will be 1%. The average family income in the Bay Area will be $300k, but most things will actually cost less, as globalization really kicks in. Anything that can be made in China will be much cheaper. Homes, medicine and college education will all be much more expensive though, balancing things out.

None of us will actually do any manual labor, in fact we will get paid our enormous salaries for posting at blogs like this one at work. All manual labor will be outsourced to Mexico and China and any actual grunt work will be done by robots, operated remotely by illegal aliens living in Nevada.

The Bay Area will be even special than it is today, because global warming will moderate the climate and the coast will be the only place anyone will want to live. And there will be genetically engineered plants that everyone will plant in their backyard which will produce delicious and healthy foodstuff, so no one will every have to go shopping for food again.

Genetic programming and plastic surgery will be commonplace and combined with the improved weather, beautiful women (and men) will routinely walk around naked, displaying their glorious bodies for all of us to enjoy.

Okay, I can think of any more utopian bullshit to spew, so I am going to have to stop here...

181   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 7:51am  

The Bay Area will be even special than it is today, because global warming will moderate the climate and the coast will be the only place anyone will want to live.

Huh? If "global warming" is real than Bay Area will be way too warm. British Columbia will be prime.

182   lunarpark   2007 Apr 4, 7:59am  

"any actual grunt work will be done by robots, operated remotely by illegal aliens living in Nevada."

LOL

183   Allah   2007 Apr 4, 8:08am  

I sure hope this chart is wrong,it shows that the dollar just plummeted! :twisted:

185   Peter P   2007 Apr 4, 8:11am  

Please be very careful with financial data. There are glitches all the time. This is why I am very suspicious of non-exchanged stop/limit orders.

186   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Apr 4, 8:17am  

Allah, I believe that the trade got misrecorded. 8.294 instead of 82.94.

If that wasn't just misrecorded, but actually mistransacted, then somebody is going to be seriously po'd when they see that.

:D

187   Allah   2007 Apr 4, 8:19am  

Off by a decimal point and it's not even april fools day! :lol:

« First        Comments 148 - 187 of 333       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions